The UK Government has published a round of aviation Technical Notices, laying out what the UK will do in the event of a “No Deal” Brexit. No deal means no Withdrawal Agreement. One thing I can do here is to highlight some of the responses to these “No Deal” papers.
ADS is a trade body for UK Aerospace, Defence, Security and Space companies[1]. They are trying to get the information out to the aviation and aerospace industries. It really is a case of being prepared.
The airlines organisation, IATA warned on that the Government’s papers on a “No-Deal” exposed the “extreme seriousness” of what is at stake. The UK would probably leave the European Common Aviation Area. However, even if something is possible in theory, it doesn’t mean its going to happen. So, the idea of all aircraft being grounded after Brexit day is more extremely improbable than unlikely.
Some commentators think that UK-EU flights and airport security may stay roughly the same in a “no deal” case, but this relies on the Government forming lots of mini mutual agreements with the EU to ensure continuity[2]. It’s a sort of let’s be good to each other even though we failed one negotiation and let’s do a “no deal” light.
Politically, the aviation papers reveal how much uncertainty remains just six months from Brexit day. The result they have had not so much to provide guidance and public reassurance but to kick-off a stream of negative stories in the Press[3].
The professional aviation Press is none too complementary about the possibility of a “No Deal” outcome. The Government papers seems to have confirmed theories that had already done the rounds[4]. Perhaps one is new and that concerns the Part-TCO safety authorisation. Prior to being an EASA Member State, the UK did not have a Part-TCO regulation. Now, the papers suggest that a new UK Part-TCO safety authorisation may be established. No doubt that would be useful to bringing in much needed fees to fund all the new work coming the way of the UK CAA.
Several subjects have had no mention – yet. Will aviation training schools have to change their workings? Will cooperation on safety planning, occurrence reporting and accident investigation continue smoothly? Will air traffic service providers continue to cooperate?
At the global level is likely that both EU and US will not want to change their current agreements. Thus, the UK will need to fit in and prove that it’s effectively discharging its new responsibilities. It’s evident that the UK CAA is recruiting staff and they will have much to do.
[1] https://www.adsgroup.org.uk/blog/aerospace/how-will-aerospace-be-affected-by-no-deal/
[2] https://fullfact.org/europe/no-deal-brexit-preparations-travel/
[3] https://www.politico.eu/article/brussels-isnt-buying-britains-no-deal-act/
[4] https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/uk-confirms-no-deal-brexit-would-limit-caa-certifica-452144/
John Vincent 