Lost Opportunities

It’s kind of odd. The wacky folk who still argue that the Brexit referendum was a good thing. For one or two well-heeled people that might be the case. It’s not the case for the overwhelming majority of British people. Maybe one issue is that it’s so difficult to get across the idea of lost opportunity. Benefits foregone because of choosing poorly.

It’s as if an ardent walker is faced with two paths. One is covered in glitter and hung with shiny streamers for the first mile only. The other is much the same as the path already traversed but it gets wide and smother after a couple of miles. One has minstrels singing patriotic and sentimental songs at its gateway. The other path has a well-meaning professor babbling on about solidarity, peace and progress. It’s the guidebook recommendation.

The destination of the first one is to circle around to get back where the walker started meantime having exhausted a lot of their provisions. For the second path there’s a whole new set of possibilities, yet unwritten. Companions are supportive and share their stories. Everyone is richer, both commercially and culturally.

The facts are that Brexit has made us poorer. In every way. It’s a pathway to nowhere, as we have found. After a decade it’s truly painful to tot-up the lost opportunities of the Brexit era. The financial numbers are huge but it’s not just about numbers. Now, the main issue is security. Developing a strong independent European defence against the global turmoil that’s ensuing.

Never a group to roll back and say – yes, you were right all along – those so deep in the Brexit ditch are pumping out propaganda much as they did in 2016. Cherished British food stuffs will need to be named using words last heard in a chemistry class. Hordes of criminal invaders will overrun our cities. They ask us to listen to apologists for climate change deniers.

Brexit is a deep fake. It’s not going to get any better. It’s going to get worse. Even if we wait 50-years, it’s not going to get any better. Certain right-wing commentators implore us to wait. To burden the generations that follow with perpetual decline.

One result of the current turmoil that is raging around the globe is the recognition that struck people with wisdom after the second world war. We have the capacity to choose between order and disorder. Anarchy has a massive cost. International rules are incredibly difficult to establish and maintain but it’s best that we try.

I know those who will counter this argument will count out the number of times the world’s institutions have failed since the late 1940s. However, that’s no-good an argument in of itself. Imagine getting to 2040. Going full circle in a century and arriving at a dystopian world of chaos where imperial racketeers terrorise billions of people. I think we can do a lot better than that if we are prepared to work for the common good.

There’s a few of words to cherish – the common good.

Humanity’s Next Frontier Awaits

This April the first was marked by a moment that will go down in the history books. Tens of thousands of people who directed their efforts to building a new generation of spacecraft will see their labours rewarded. People with a vision that looks beyond the horizon have set in train a mission that will demonstrate that we are not confined to this rocky planet. Space – the final frontier. A vast frontier that’s there to be explored. Discoveries await.

By venturing beyond any humans in history, four brave astronauts represent us all. They started their journey in America, but when they look back all they will see is Earth. The dark of space with this lush globe brightly illuminated by our Sun. Ahead is a bright rocky sphere.

Not for one moment should we look upon this Moon-bound space mission as straightforward. There’s one thing that is absolute about the void of space. It’s a hostile environment for humans. Every system that is built into a spacecraft must work as intended. Contingencies need to be planned for every possibility.

This space mission is made possible because of partnerships. Europe[1] , US[2] and Canada working together for a common goal. What is known as the Artemis program aims to make the Moon accessible. To effectively shorten the distance between the Earth and its satellite.

There is a whole world benefit in moving from the Moon as a scientific curiosity to a place where humans can live and work. This is not a binary argument. We must solve our problems on Earth as well as exporting our environment.

Space exploration does help us see our fragile Erath in context. Everything beyond Earth shows no concern for our fate. In fact, it’s imperative that we gain as much knowledge as is possible about the near-Earth environment. A Moonbase is a suitable place to do just that.

My hope is that this remains a fundamentally civil enterprise. Such that the findings derived from the Moon’s exploration are for all humanity. It’s not a place to continue the conflicts that scare our home planet. I maybe idealistic. However, it’s for humanity to frame the rules that will apply on the Moon’s surface. Rules will be needed.

My hope is that this Moon mission goes smoothly and that everyone is returned safely back to Earth. That a new generation looks up at the Moon and sees it less distant. With the experience gained the next Moon mission should be able to go further.

[1] https://www.esa.int/

[2] https://www.nasa.gov/

Return to the Moon

Return to the Moon is the aim of the latest American project to venture into space. It’s an ambitious attempt to get to the Moon and eventually to establish a base on its surface. 

For fans of the British TV series Space 1999 it’s a possible realisation of Moon base Alpha. Although the reality is likely to be rather more modest in size. As far as we know there’s no aliens to repel or possibility of being spun into the empty void of space.

Setting up camp on a Moon, with no atmosphere and much less gravitational pull than Earth, is not for the faint hearted. Just the act of landing on it without crashing into it takes considerable skill. I remember early computer games based on a simple lunar lander. Block graphics written in BASIC floating across the screen.

Look as hard as you can, there are no signs of cows jumping this morning. That nursery rhyme is to be left on the shelf. If the Moon bound astronauts should see a cow on their mission, then I’m sure that it’s more a case of something they ate rather than a bovine space traveller.

This space mission should take humans further away from our home planet than any human has travelled. Hopefully this will happen as per the script. It seems strange that it has taken until 2026 to mark this great achievement.

Makes me think of the HHGTTG and the reference to humans being so lazy that they can’t be bothered to travel to their closest star. Afterall the plans for the demolition of the Earth have been sitting there for all to see for eons.

In fictional space travel terms this mission to the Moon is baby steps. A hop to our constant satellite. Both an opportunity to admire it close and look back at the Earth. To look back to see the whole Earth. Not a single boundary fence or line on a map. Not a palace or bunker.

Passing over the dark side of the Moon has been done before. Immortalised by Pink Floyd, the dark side is a unique place that few have seen with their own eyes. Yes, a spacecraft has landed there but there remains something spooky about the face that’s turned away from us.

One thing is for sure. Should they succeed, these 21st century astronauts can report back to US President Trump. They can finally confirm that the Moon is not made of green cheese. Rumours may persist amongst the flat earthers. Conspiracy theories do the rounds on a regular basis. Modern popular culture hasn’t embraced the green cheese theory – yet.

Return to the Moon is a grand ambition. Not a lot of practical benefits to be gained in the short-term. This is more a venture for the long-term. If we are to become a spacefaring race, then these are steps that must be taken.

Why King Charles Should Delay US Visit

I’m doing that Keynesian double-take. The facts change, so what do I do? I change my mind. That’s what I’ve done in respect of the current situation on the other side of the Atlantic. Shear pig-headed stubbornness is in fashion in high places. That prideful assertion that says nothing I do or say can be wrong. Well, I’m not going to fall into that foolish trap.

Should the UK’s Head of State pay an official visit to the United States (US). The answer must be “yes” at an appropriate time and place. I listed a respectable number of reasons why the UK and the US are linked by history and a whole lot more. However, I’ve put a caveat on the view presented here. At an appropriate time and place, is a way of saying that there should be conditions.

As it stands, the King’s planned visit to the US this year should be called off. The conditions are not right for a successful visit. The US -UK special relationship has a past, it may have a future but at the present there’s a big problem.

In this anniversary year of American independence, I had argued that it was good to celebrate a long-standing relationship. However, just at this moment, the US and UK are in quite separate places. It maybe the case that the citizenry in both countries is thinking similar things. What’s clear is that the leadership of both countries are not on the same page.

If the non-partisan opinion polls are to be relied upon, the citizenry in both countries have a highly negative view of the decision to enter a war in the Middle East. Putting the UK’s Head of State in a position where an appearance can be manipulated to indicate support for the instigation of war in the Middle East is not a good place to be.

It’s right to acknowledge the facts. There is a war in Europe which is of greater concern to most people. That situation needs to be resolved. Engaging in a war of choice in the Middle East is not in the best interests of people in the UK, or Europe.

From what I gleam, and what little I know, King Charles is doing well at upholding the dignity and integrity of the British Monarchy. Not so easy a task when blessed with a wayward brother and long-standing family splits. The King is faced with small protests in the UK given his brother’s past associations and the blind eye that was turned to his brother’s behaviour.

I’m a British republican in nature but continue to have respect for our peculiar constitutional settlement. Yes, we could do better but that’s an argument for another time. Imagine how much distaste a substantial number of the British people will feel if our King is seen to align himself closely with an unpopular American President. Not good optics, as they say.

My points are made without thought of political bandwagon hopping as so favoured by lots of UK Members of Parliament (MPs). That just doubles up the complexity of making the right long-term decision on this difficult real time issue of international relations.

It’s clear to me that, in his second term, the legacy that President Trump will hand down to the next generation, is and will be a horrid and tragic mess. We’d better start looking further ahead at how the 2030s[1] can be made a better decade. Historian will look as aghast at the late 2020s.

The political volatility of the current situation is such that predictions become even more difficult. Power drains away when politicians ignore the people – let’s see how that goes.

[1] Trump’s term of office: 20th January 2029.

Runway Incursions and Airline Safety

Firstly, condolences to the families and friends of those killed in the recent aviation accident at LaGuardia airport in New York. It’s incredibly sad that this destructive runway incident took place in the way that it did. At this stage there is a jumble of international News reports. As is often the case while attention is focused on what happened at a time when the facts have not been verified or data collected.

What is known is that Air Canada Express flight 8646 was where it was supposed to be on a runway and an airport-based fire truck was not. The resulting high-speed collision had disastrous consequences for both the aircraft and the fire truck.

The US National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) has quickly engaged to start a detailed technical investigation. Their role is to independently piece together all the information that is available and determine a probable cause of the accident. With that to make formal safety recommendations aimed at preventing accidents and incidents.

What I can say is that the subject of Runway Incursion (RI)[1] is a long-standing aviation safety concern. So much so that it has its own accident category when it comes to aviation safety data analysis. Such tragic events are not isolated or extremely improbable.

Air Traffic Control (ATC) is tasked with separating aircraft from each other and any other vehicles. Accidents in this category have been the catalyst for advances in equipment and procedures. That said, there’s no getting away from the substantial number of human and operational factors that pervade this domain.

Unlike the design and construction of aircraft system whereby an onerous safety objective can be stamped on a technical specification. Managing air traffic on the ground is done with a high dependency on the actions of professionally trained staff.

In an internationally accepted code, a RI is defined as:

Any occurrence at an aerodrome involving the incorrect presence of an aircraft, vehicle, or person on the protected area of a surface designated for the landing and take-off of aircraft.

I don’t hesitate to say that’s what happened at LaGuardia. This says nothing about – why?

So, we have an indication of what happened. What’s a little unsettling is how quickly there is News reports speculation on why it happened. Initial references to someone having made a mistake or error are no helpful. This signalling tends to encourage a simplification of the circumstances of the accident into a matter of blame. That unfortunately leads to an impression that this is a rare event that can be attributed to one factor. All to often this is not the case.

The actions of professionally trained staff can be put under such work pressure as it comes to a situation where no normal person can perform adequately. It was the introduction of Safety Management Systems (SMS) that was intended to identify these scenarios and ensure that they were mitigated or eliminated.

The actions of everyone involved with this fatal aviation accident are now under investigation. Aviation is not a “a dangerous business”. However, it is a business that requires more care and attention than most. That includes the provision of adequate resources at all times.

[1] https://www.intlaviationstandards.org/Documents/OccurrenceCategoryDefinitions.pdf

Celebrating Spring

Spring has sprung. And that makes me think of my father-in-law. No longer with us, he was an avid birdwatcher. That’s where I think I got this shorty ditty:

Spring has sprung, the grass is ris, I wonder where the birdies is.

The bird is on the wing, But that’s absurd. From what I’ve heard. The wing is on the bird!

That’s definitely the case either recited with a Yankie accent, or not. The grass is bright fresh green and launching itself skyward. That’s my English garden. Time to dig the lawn mower out of the shed. Dust it off and see if it will run.

Bird life is on the move. Winter slumbers have turned to springtime thoughts of finding a mate.  First thing this morning, off in the distance, at the river’s edge, I saw two Egrets[1] plodding around. They seemed to be ignoring each other, but I bet that’s not the case.

Yesterday, was the vernal equinox, the first proper day of springtime. The weather is behaving itself. The ground is still wet underfoot but at least the process of drying out has begun.

Yesterday, in the adjoining field, I saw a colourful male pheasant[2] wandering around as if it was lost. It’s as if he’d lost his sense of direction, bobbing around the marshy riverbank.

This morning, standing on the fence adjoining my house an assertive little dunnock[3] was surveying the garden. He didn’t seem phased by my presence. Alert to everything that was going on. I’m sure he could see more of my garden than me.

Wrens, Robins, Bluetits and Blackbirds are almost too common to mention. They take their time feeding when the Jackdaws are off doing something else. When the Jackdaws[4] come down in mass it’s like a crowd of football supporters. Almost as noisy. They take over and the smaller birds flee. Watching the Jackdaws interact with each other it’s clear they have a complex social order. The older birds, I assume, are larger and have a head with a more defined band. They push their seniority on every occasion. The younger birds, hopping and jumping as if queuing for permission to take the bast places.

Dare I mention the pigeons. My least favourite common bird. Bit like fat flying rats. They do their thing almost oblivious to any other wildlife. No risk of their numbers declining.

I prefer the Canadian Geese over scruffy pigeons. They too are at not of likelihood of any population risk. I’ve seen as many as twenty grazing in the field. They compete with the Jackdaws to be the noisiest birds.

I must admit, on the positive side, they are incredibly able flyers. To get a sizable round body up in the air with grace and style is impressive. Picture prefect formation flying too.

Spring has sprung. A great time to be out and about.

[1] https://www.rspb.org.uk/birds-and-wildlife/little-egret

[2] https://www.rspb.org.uk/birds-and-wildlife/pheasant

[3] https://www.rspb.org.uk/birds-and-wildlife/dunnock

[4] https://www.rspb.org.uk/birds-and-wildlife/jackdaw

The Ever-Evolving Debate in the UK

It’s astonishing to me. On this site, I’ve been scribbling away for nearly a decade. My first item was posted at the end of April 2016. It was mostly in reaction to the national referendum that had been called on the United Kingdom’s membership of the European Union (EU).

I’d returned to the United Kingdom (UK) after 11-years living in German. In Cologne. As you might expect my reaction to this peculiar referendum was one of bemusement and shock. Had my home country gone completely off its trolly whilst I’d been focused on other matters?

We now know that it was sheer nativity (and a degree of vanity) that brought about this unfortunate situation. One of our privileged public schools educated Prime Ministers (PMs) took it upon himself to deal with an irritating divide in his political party. He was aided and abetted by a former leader of the UK’s most pro-European liberal political party (Nick Clegg). Go figure that one. At the time, Tim Farron was the leader of the Liberal Democrats. Sadly, capable fellow that he is, he had about as much political influence as a flag in the wind.

The campaign to remain as an EU member should have had all the campaign advantages. Lack of planning and imagination on the part of David William Donald Cameron, and those who surrounded him, meant that advantage melted away.

Reading my past words, it seems that I’d hit the nail on the head with this short line.

Migration is the biggest issue for some people when it comes to the EU referendum vote.

Cameron and Co majored on the economics. A number crunchers paradise but shamefully remote from the people who mattered – the British voters.

I’ll stick with the theme of peculiarity. Guess what, after Brexit, now a decade on, that short line is still top dog. What that tells me is that those on the right wing of politics in the UK will never ever be satisfied. To the point of building an impenetrable wall all the way around the country (rather than a path[1]). To shun anyone who they can label as a foreigner.

Those who profit from inequality and polarisation will never ever stop this push to ever most extreme positions. They have been frighteningly successful in that the political centre in the UK has moved gradually to the right. Gravelly, the cost to the average citizen has been high.

After a decade of reflection, the nation needs to get away from building walls and pilling on layers of domestic bureaucracy. The vision of the UK as a big gated community with arbitrary partisan government controls is a dumb one.

It’s fine to say that in early 2016 none of us could have foreseen COVID-19 or Russia’s foolish drive to war. We couldn’t have even foreseen President Trump’s second term in the US, although there are commentators who had that one called.

There’s a long list of predictions about Brexit that have come true – most of us are poorer.

Ironically, global matters are having more impact than ever. The need for regional and global cooperation is self-evident. Building stable institutions to serve that purpose remains of paramount importance.

[1] https://www.nationaltrail.co.uk/en_GB/trails/england-coast-path/

Transitioning to Green Aviation

Put your hands over your ears if your mantra is – drill baby drill. If climate change is a myth, in your mind, or you take a devil may care attitude, then the mere mention of the word “green” may give you the jitters. This is not for you. Move out of the way.

For the rest of us, who live in the real world, on planet Earth, there’s a problem. A prickly, tricky, sticky, long-term global problem. One that has commanded a great deal of attention but sometimes almost to the point of boring the pants off. Transport is one of those sectors that needs attention. Progress toward the adoption of Electric Vehicles (EV) is underway. Now and then, there’s a push back, but the direction of travel is clear. An immediate reminder of the need to change is the volatility of fuel prices at the pump. An inability to control or foresee global events that push oil and gas prices one way and then the next.

Sustainable aviation is turning out to be a hard nut to crack. For ground-based vehicles the issue of power density is not as constraining as it is in aviation. Weight is one of the fundamental parameters in flight. So, current high energy batteries present a particular technical challenge.

Exploring new forms of flight propulsion is a god send for futurologists, researchers and adventurous innovators. None of the technical challenges are a quick win. The avenues for study are infinite. Well almost. Antigravity doesn’t seem to be on the cards – yet.

I guess one of the barriers is that we have a sophisticated global aviation system that we, almost entirely, take for granted. The technology involved in transporting 200 people from a cold, grey, dull, wet Britain to a sunny warm inviting holiday destination has matured to such a point that few look at it with astonishment. That so much is provided for so little outlay.

It wasn’t that the problems of providing such air transport services were easy to solve. It’s an inheritance that has stretched over many decades. Testament to the work of a vast number of smart entrepreneurs, engineers, scientists, officials and alike.

Hydrogen fuel, or some form of hybrid propulsion does seem to be a long-term prospect.

What I see now is the excitement created by past projections is being tempered by practical reality. Wonderful strategic plans, with outlandish charts, pointed the way to a fossil fuel free utopia. Those colourful documents did good in driving forward a level of thinking. Where they offered a lesser contribution is in predicting and enabling a practical transition.

This is the time when everyone does a double take. Where the aim is a workable business cases that provides a transition in a believable, sound and rational sense. Flirting with bankruptcy has been a habit of past adventurous aviation developments. Read the turbulent story of the jumbo jet. Most agree this is not a desirable state to wish for or be in. Maybe this is the tale of the tortoise and the hare. Methodical plodding through the difficulties, incremental change, ingenuity and sheer hard headedness are needed. A couple of points to round off.

One – don’t get stuck on the repetitive nonsense that new developments can’t takes place until the regulatory structure is in place.

Two – don’t build houses on all the small airfields and lesser-known airports that may, one day, become part of a new transport system[1].

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plymouth_City_Airport

Uncertain Times

What do you do when faced with abusive and disruptive behaviour? For the most part, it’s common to have an emotional response and an idealistic one. That’s not the way situations play out, in reality. We do not live in a world of superheroes where a baddy is reformed and order is restored. Well, not always.

World affairs are full of tragic circumstances. Full of volatility too. One moment paise goes to a friend and the next minute insults are thrown like confetti. There’s a rhythm to this backwards and forwards stream of words. It’s plagued with inconsistency and simple error.

Let’s say a disruptive colleague is ranting and raving about the rights and wrongs of the day’s news. It’s great to say – just tell him to take a walk. Clam down and engage brain. In the idea situation there’s some form of accountability. All actions have a consequence.

Here we are. There’s a crisis on the doorstep. A war is raging and it’s only just begun. Setting light an oil rich part of the globe has ramifications everywhere.

Putting aside the fact that history has given us plenty of warnings about situations like this one. Continuing to be dependent upon sources of fossil fuel is not sustainable. However, we look at it, eventually this elixir of the modern world will run out. In the meantime, the foolishness of increasing the amount of CO2 in the Earth’s atmosphere is proven.

Here in Europe, a clear divide is growing. Historically, fair trade, the rule of law and common defence goals have marked out the relationship between Europe and the US. In international institutions the two have a long record of supporting each other. Common interests run through the thread of affairs like the words in a stick of rock[1].

Donald Trump’s second term as President of the US is proving to be a massive test to that long thread. Interests are diverging. Diverging not between the people of Europe and the US but between their political leaders.

So, let’s remember that political leaders are like fireflies. They go through several stages during their careers. The last one is most often marked by failure. One witty guy said that the adage that political careers end in failure needs to be changed. In fact, all political careers end in the publication of memoirs. Often saying – I was right all the time. With Trump it’s as if he (or his ghost writer) is writing his memoirs as he goes.

It’s abundantly clear, for the next couple of years, Europe and the US are going to travel different paths. As ever, the UK must choose or end up straddling a wide gulf. With Europe the tenants of fair trade, the rule of law and common defence goals still stand.

One day, in the not-too-distant future, I will be a septuagenarian. I hope that the passing of years has enabled me to accrue some wisdom. I’m determined not to succumb to disruptive and unruly incoherence. Even if I do, I hope that I’m not in a position of power that encourages those around be to become sycophantic.

Democratic processes do have a way of punishing political failure. They need to kick-in.

[1] https://brightonbitesback.com/a-history-of-brighton-rock-candy/

A Rational Perspective

I do not have superstitions. I have never had superstitions. I deplore superstitions.

My avoiding walking under ladders of unknown quality is merely a matter of judiciously applied risk assessment. Thus, I have never been hit on the head by a stray tin of paint.

Considering the number 13 as unusual and embowed with certain qualities is merely an association with past encounters with the number 13. Especially on my birthday (13th).

Years of observations prove to me that black cats are particularly perceptive and animals of great wisdom. Thus, such a cat crossing my path is a pleasurable happenstance.

If I see two magpies, it’s only natural to consider this as a celebration of the joys of nature. Empathy with a lonely magpie can be a rational response to my hope that they will find a mate.

Clouds with silver linings are merely a positive meteorological phenomenon that suggests, at any time of year, bright warm sunshine is only moments away.

It would be entirely ridiculous to assert that superstitions have any validity. Ah!