Exploring ‘Project Hail Mary’

I’m sure there’s a lot of great science fiction scripts out there waiting to be discovered. Unknown authors trying to get someone to read their story. To me, it’s often astonishing the movies that get made. It goes without saying, movie making is an expensive business. Being invested in a story, to the extent of finding millions to fund filming, is no mean feat. The lower risk option is to take a book, that isn’t terrible and adapt it in a way that takes full advantage of the visual medium. The higher risk option is to do something truly original.

It’s now on Prime, so I thought to watch it. The recent movie “Project Hail Mary” is a struggle. I started watching it and quickly got bored. That’s me, someone who likes an imaginative Sci-fi. The only way I could handle it was to watch the movie in chunks. Digest a bit at a time.

Ryan Gosling is an able lead. Trouble is that he acts an off-beat, highly unlikely, irritating character that bumbles along like a space bound Mr Bean. The premise of a spaceman waking not knowing where they are in the universe is not a new one. Having to work out the whole purpose of a mission, in what seems like a few minutes flat, is pushing it.

At the core of the plot is the relationship between Ryland Grace (Gosling) and an unusual alien. A highly advanced alien whose physical appearance seems to undermine that fact. In the whole universe, at least there’s a reasonable explanation for this unlikely meeting of these two smart lifeforms. A common interest. Saving their homelands.

It’s one of the biggest questions that humans can ask. Ever since spaceflight has been a possibility the question arises. What do we do in the event of a first contact? This movie plays with the event in a jovial way. Then it veers into seriousness as it’s disclosed that both protagonists are alone. Their colleagues are all dead. This flipping backwards and forwards from semi-comical routines to serious hardcore predicaments gets waring over the length of a long movie. The storytelling plodded.

There’re some daft aspects of the spaceships and their occupants too. Grance has human dexterity but “Rocky” would seem to have the superior ship. So, why did they go to the target planet in the last-minute cobbled together humans ship? That had no pilot.

On the plus side the themes that come through, at the end, are hopeful ones. Cooperation, mutual understanding and respect are far more powerful than fear and cowardliness.

From the outset, Grace knew that the likelihood of failure was enormous but in a Dr Who like way the – something will come up – attitude prevailed. Problem with the overall story was that it was improbably staked so heavily against the heroes that it became ridiculous in places.

Again, on the plus side the characters did have an emotional connection. A long way from home the two bonded. It’s questionable whether such two different lifeforms would share a similar sense of wonder, appreciation of beauty and respect for learning. That said, this merry space romp should be taken with a pinch of salt.

I don’t think I’d watch this one again unless I was strapped to an aircraft seat on a long journey.

Digital Age Dilemma

There was a time when most of the political parties in the UK would object to mass surveillance and the State having a watchful eye on every one of its citizens. The influence of the Magna Carta, that 800-year-old document, was a keystone of thinking in this country. Although it was aimed at the privileged when first placed in front of a Monarch, it embraced the idea of liberty. It so upset the establishment that a Pope denounced it.

Ideas endure and those contained in the Magna Carta went on to inspire the framers of the constitutions and legislation in many countries. It doesn’t sound so strange in modern times that a person should be able to go about their lives without an overbearing State impinging on their liberty. Well, at least in theory.

I remember the intense debates that took place in the mid-1990s. The subject being the introduction of identity cards in the UK. Technical arguments were made of how such a measure would simplify lives in the coming digital age. Those agreements paid little attention to the erosion of fundamental rights that the centralising personal data on citizens would bring.

What’s happened now, through a process of stealth, is that people have given away vast qualities of data to international commercial entities without batting an eyelid. The legal device that has been used is a contract that few people ever read. The End User License Agreement (EULA). This detailed fine print addresses data collection and aims to protect software providers from liability.

I suspect that Conservative politicians have observed how little attention people are paying to the erosion of their rights that they feel emboldened to abandon any commitments to liberty. For some time now the Conservative mantra of has been to leave the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). This is based on a gamble that most people will not have read the document. It’s a bit like the snatch and grab that the typical EULA has become.

Now, the Conservative Party has doubled down on a shift to the right of politics by inviting the prospect of mass surveillance. There’s a reasonable argument for the police to excurse powers to delve into the digital world when investigating crime. In fact, how can they not do so. However, this should be done so when there’s reasonable basis for doing so. Not everyone is a suspect of criminal activity. The law of the land still upholds the idea that guilt must be proven.

Computational tools are getting ever more powerful. I could joke that the number of articles on AI would reach to the Moon and back, but I wouldn’t be far wrong. One of the powerful software tools that’s accumulating uses is that of digital facial recognition. We’ve advanced from the days of inky fingerprints, although such prints are still valuable identifiers.

Where do we have a problem with liberty? The framers of many longstanding constitutions didn’t have to think to hard about what liberty meant in a world devoid of digital cameras. Now, any citizen’s image is going to be caught hundreds of times through the day. Maybe thousands of times. That instant image can be present on storage devices across the globe.

Who owns that image of me or you? Can it be used by anyone? Tricky questions given phones, traffic cameras, doorbells and home and business security cameras are subject to EULAs. On a superficial basis, requiring police forces to extract digital images and run them through a national database can sound like a good crime fighting idea.

The problem is where is the line drawn? Mass surveillance? Where everyone is an immediate suspect until proven not guilty? Not guilty by virtue of the calculation of an algorithm. Widespread digital camera coverage does put this in prospect. Images stored all over the world. Do we need to reframe the Magna Carta for the AI age? Now, there’s a thought.

Travel Dilemma

A dilemma. Travel is a unique way of enhancing life’s experience. Travel inevitably has an environmental cost. It’s a predicament that’s impossible to avoid. I could look at this as a balance of pros and cons. That’s to seek a reason to balance the scales. It’s what I’m inclined to do. A highly rational way of viewing a dilemma.

This doesn’t work for everyone. Belief comes into the equation. For those who see the world on a knifes edge, tittering on the brink of environmental disaster, any argument about travel is shaped by trepidation. People can get quite puritanical about travel’s burdens.

Equally, there’s a group of people who fit in the “burn baby burn” camp. Those who will not give a tinker’s cuss about global environmental arguments. That’s a bit disingenuous. There’s always the belief that God’s plan is mysterious and these matters are not in our hands.

There’s a third category. I’ve met a few who fit this one. It’s to espouse great concern about green issues and then to act in a manner that’s inconsistent with that belief. Hypocrisy is nothing new. It’s a permanent part of the human condition.

Here, I’m only going down the rational rabbit hole. It’s to harbour genuine concern for the environment at the same time as understanding the power of travel to open minds and create world where we better understand each other.

To travel or not, that is the question. Whether it be nobler to stay at home or to suffer the hassle and crammed seats of a cheap flight, for the excitement of visiting an unfamiliar place. I’ll start by putting my conclusion up-front. It’s nobler to travel.

The pros and cons of staying at home or moving in familiar territory. Restricted circles.

On the upside then it’s possible to say with a clear conscious that you have done your bit to try and minimise the environmental impact of travel. You can stand at the bar in the local pub and lambast those who you think are ruining the planet.

On the downside, not everyone will appreciate how virtuous you claim to be. Probably citing some other environmental impact. Like your gas boiler, lack of recycling or guzzling SUV.

The pros and cons of trains, planes, and automobiles, exploring new territory. Global curiosity.

On the upside then it’s likely you will not be stuck for conversation. Certainly, you’ll be carrying home the knowledge of different cultures and how others live. In fact, the experience can lead to a better appreciation of how others tackle environmental challenges.

On the downside, a conscientious traveller must account for their CO2 emissions or, at least, have mind to compensate for them in some way. Time to plant trees.

I’ve framed this piece in terms of the substance of a personal decision. That’s not the biggest factor at play. The global growth in travel is the total of the behaviour of people from all levels of society, in a mass of different situations. One element is clear. As the economic circumstances of people improves so the propensity to wish to travel increases. I’ve not lined up a convincing graph to show this relationship. However, it’s hard to argue against it. As an example, the curve for global air travel keeps going up.

So, we live with a dilemma. Making travel more accessible at the same time as minimising the cumulative costs. A familiar dilemma. One that’s inherent in much that we do. A perpetual challenge.

Doorway Effect

Without question, there’s one experience every person on Earth has from birth to death. That’s unless they are completely motionless. I should clarify. I’m not talking about basic body functions. Eating, drinking, sleeping, and breathing. Let’s say, there’s one experience every person on Earth has in a built environment. Even of the most rudimentary kind.

The impressive ones are huge. Ages ago the common ones were typically smaller. Their use is instinctive. The experience of their use can range from impenetrable to completely transparent.

[Today’s most written about movie has a wide selection of them on show. One of them pivotal in the crux of the story being told. It was penetrated and the course of a war changed.]

Minutes ago, I got up from my chair and walked into another room. I went there with the distinct intention of doing something. By the time I got to the other room, I’d completely forgotten the reason I went there in the first place. It’s took a moment’s double-take to realise my original intent. Then normality was restored. I assure you, this is not an eccentric quirk of mine alone.

Doors do that to people. For a start they are unavoidable. Every construction we’ve ever built must have a means to get from one place to another. A basic part of our human needs is shelter.

In my 1950s house, and that of most other people, they are standardised products of an industrial society. Each with a style and colour that suites its location. Each with a consistent mean of operation. Components manufactured from across the globe. A technical discussion could get incredibly wide ranging, as to the variety of ancient and modern doors. Hinged, sliding, barn, pivot/revolving, swinging/saloon, roller, flush, up-and-over, louvered, or trap doors to name a few. I’ll steer clear of this minefield.

What’s intriguing is the impact doors have on us. Transitioning from one place to another is way beyond a simple physical process. The mind is engaged in movement. Not only the shape and form of the environment but how it changes. A whole plethora of mental processes click into action as we go from A to B.

Starting at the primitive. A calculation we make concerns safety. Is there a threat either here or there? Most of the time this consideration is subconscious. In extreme cases it’s the one overriding consideration. A good reason to read the safety card when sitting on an aircraft.

What struck me this morning is the annoying reality of forgetfulness. It’s a part of life. Yes, there’s the factor of age. This is not the sole factor by a long way. My focus here is on the short-term impact and not a severe one at that. The simple fact of passing through a portal increases the likelihood of a momentary loss of some part of short-term memory. I wonder why?

Here’s an off-the-chuff theory. It’s to do with safety. In going from one environment to another the mind is preparing for whatever might be encountered. Doors by the nature obscure what’s on the other side. Fine, that’s not always true. An open gate, a kind of door, may not hide the path ahead. Whatever, there’s a transition in prospect. A need to process new information on the “other side.” In anticipation of having to process that new information the mind rationalises what it knows. Is my mind saying, now I’ve gone from A to B, I don’t have to bother so much about some of the stuff I’ve left behind.

Well, look at that. The “doorway effect[1]” is in the scientific literature. Me being me. I wonder if there any implications for aviation safety. It could be said that some people, often alcohol induced, leave their common sense behind has they enter an aircraft door. More seriously, evacuating during an incident, does it matter that short-term memory might be impaired?

[1] https://www.sciencefocus.com/science/psychology-doorway-effect-memory

Nostalgia vs. Innovation

My generation, and those a bit older than me, are inclined to shrug shoulders and, in a war wearied way, lament the passing of a great era. It’s not merely nostalgia. Although there’s a degree of selective memory in what we choose to remember as good.

This week, at the BBC Proms, I sat down in the bar at the interval and was joined by a friendly couple and another. We all had the grey hairs that qualified us as Prommers[1]. It soon became clear that the older gentlemen was a music buff who had been going to the BBC Proms since the 1960s. I’ve been going since 2018. Still an innocent bystander learning the Promming ways.  

The intensity of my companion’s conversation was fascinating. Firstly, it was to comment, unfavourably, on the contemporary music that’s a hallmark of recent concerts. I liked it. I’d say it was a winsome winding through a wood accompanied by crickets playing soft percussion. Not so much adventurous as intriguing music for the Albert Hall. The view from the sofa was that these new musical fillers were a waste of time. There was a time when entire concerts were avant-garde and challenging. About the 1970s/80s, or thereabouts.

Let’s reflect. I think what the BBC is now going through is what a whole British generation is going through. An existential crisis. Not so much stop the world I want to get off, as a howl of irritation. Another sign is the annoying advert where the BBC heralds itself as a national treasure. Using the Monty Python line – what have the Romans ever done for us?[2]

The winds of change can be cruel. That’s not new. However, we’ve had a couple of decades coming to the realisation that some traditional ways of doing things are not going to nicely evolve into a recognisable future state. Incremental change has its benefits. Trouble is that it puts off the day when something more substantial needs to be done.

On two specific British cultural assets – music and comedy, we can’t afford to hang onto repetitive formats and a dependency on the likes and dislikes of an aging population.

Ghastly mush like, Mrs. Brown’s Boys is a blight on our televisions. Although it was an important part of my youth, endless repeats of Top of the Pops belong in a museum. If the BBC takes the road that only mines the past or tickles one section of the country, its fate is sealed.

Take Monty Python as an example. When first proposed it looked foolish, hopeless and niche. What’s the betting that there are creative people out there now who are being told to go away. The plethora of MBAs in media decision making roles shudder at taking risks.

Yes, there is a future for the BBC. Thing is it needs an immense kick up the backside in the fashion of Bishop Brennan. https://youtu.be/7PyI9q9AX1A?t=1335

[1] https://www.royalalberthall.com/visit/bbc-proms-faqs

[2] https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0079470/quotes/?item=qt0471953

Call for Action and Change

When I hear promising ideas, I instinctively say to myself – don’t be negative. Try and see the plus side of these proposals. Afterall the proposer is doing their best to solve a problem. I hope. Same with the recognition of a problem, even if solutions are nowhere to be seen. Just saying it or writing it out is an acceptance that something needs doing. Action needs to be taken. As is often said, every journey begins with the first step.

It ‘s easy to be cynical when so many first steps have been taken before. Well-meaning, and not so well-meaning, individuals have stood at lecterns saying what needs to be done. So, tackling the troubling situation of social care in the UK is a great ambition for a Prime Minister to have. A good task to set before a new Cabinet. Where they will go with it, no one knows, at the moment. Making a commitment, in public, is a good place to start.

That’s not what I’m going to write about this morning. There’s a ghastly term that has entered discussions of recent. I say ghastly because it’s a faceless product of statistical analysis. Carved out of a pile of numbers it proports to describe a whole group of young people as if there were a homogonous lump.

The term is NEET. It makes me cringe every time I hear it. Meaning – the number of 16 to 24-year-olds not in Employment, Education, or Training. A moral panic sets in when people say this is “a lost generation”. It’s as if a million young people had wandered off into oblivion. Makes me think of the 1960s/70s and the moral panic that set in as young people – turned-on, tuned-in and dropped-out. The counterculture slogan of those decades. Like so many situations the truth is a lot more complex. It usually is. Here’s a number of factors that undoubtably come into play.

Yes, that hardy perennial, the decline of “real” apprenticeships. The low value society still puts on training craft and manual skills of a practical nature. Despite the nice words of successive politicians. I’ve yet to see a Minister’s daughter start aircraft maintenance training.

Penny pinching that’s turned local colleges into factories. Pile them high and get them through the door fast. An attitude to young people that’s driven by key performance indicators.

The pernicious side of social media. Past generations may have had their excesses but didn’t have this inescapable attention draining impact on mental health. It’s unrelenting.

Role models are hard to come by unless they are family members. Many potential opportunities appear unobtainable. The media often portrays a future wrapped in glamour and littered with overnight success. Perhaps, Andy Warhol was right.

Lack of orientating to dramatic changes in the future working environment. Pushed by Conservative Minister Gove and alike, education has taken a retro path in emphasising academia and rote learning. Exams as the pinnacle. The wrong path.

The “new” Labour Government must address all of these and more if they want to shift the dial. On this score, I’ll say a word about a past opponent of mine. We were both local Councillors at the same time. In 2017, as Minister of State for Skills and Apprenticeships, Conservative Anne Milton at least tried to shift the dial on this subject. Then that menace Boris Johnson came along, and Brexit took the whole country backwards at a very rapid pace.

I look with optimism. However, the “new” Labour Government is a bit like the “old” Labour Government. Ministers carved out of an Oxbridge tradition. Happy to talk about their illustrious working-class origins but a million miles from real word experience of leaving school at 16 years old and getting a paying job. Supporting themselves through training.

Transforming lives will require focus on multiple issues, as I’ve illustrated, and it would be nice to see actions take precedent over nice speeches. Wittering on about the value of apprenticeships isn’t enough.

POST: Technical pathways for 14-year-olds could build on UTC model

A Modern Odyssey

Join the que. It’s getting to the point that if you don’t have aa view on Christopher Nolan’s version of the Odyssey you must be a hermit. Epic coverage for an epic movie. Add a mountain of click-bait on trivia too.

Before watching this movie, at the local cinema, I sat with a pint in hand overhearing a couple of people sitting behind me. They were having that discussion. Lots of compare and contrast. Some comments were not atypical of a film about Greek mythology. Even the subjects of Star Wars and Spiderman came up. I asked: did you enjoy it. A universal “yes” came back.

It’s a risky business making a film like this one. It immediately invites thousands of professional critics to look deeply. To subdivide every minute into an academic review. From school desk to university lecture theatre, I can imagine a lot of huffing going on. Diving into the detail or picking fault with the well -known parts or lamenting the ones left out.

I’m not going to get into the discussion about authenticity. For me that’s a complete dead-end. Afterall such ancient tales were made for retelling. The whole tale comes from an era when the written word wasn’t as it is now. More likely be like a gigantic drinking ballad told to enthral diners, where a host is aiming to impress. Each teller would bring their own spin.

Is this grand film entertaining? Yes, it certainly is. Big, bold and engaging. It’s long. But on first watching, the time goes quickly. I wouldn’t say the pace was always fast. It’s more the dramatic moments that captivate. I feel like I’ve been shipwrecked numerous times. Fought several battles.

Casting was spot on for the most part. One or two quirks. I know Calypso is a nymph in Greek mythology, but she looked as if she had walked out of a scene from Sex in the City.

Being me, I did wonder how the Cyclops made cheese when his hands where so large and his sheep were so small. Bigger sheep would have solved that one.

Poseidon was responsible for a great deal of torment. He however was left out of the casting. The rage of the sea lashed out without a face.

The dead, in their black volcanic sand, did take us into zombie movie territory. A lie echoed from the grave to burden the hero. It left us with a dilemma – was it all worth it? The death and destruction for the victory won.

Locations didn’t fill the screen in the way of Lord of the Rings. Far more focus was on the characters. There were places and scenes that didn’t fit my idea of a long-lost Greek landscape. That didn’t detract from the storytelling.

Modern sensibilities crept in to draw that line between an ancient time and what’s now happening in the world. It wasn’t just a homecoming story. War, and its consequences peppered the plot. Who to trust, and not is a major theme.

Echoes of the virtue of the “rule of law” where evident. The Greek Gods sat in the background. Ever present and ready to mess up the hero’s plans at any moment. Easily offended and not troubled by their impact on the human world.

Classical messages, as they ripple down the eons, do remind us of how fickle fate can be. Doing the right thing is not always obvious. What’s heralded as greatness often contains much tragedy. The story of life is the journey and not an end.

From the point of view of multimillion dollar filmmaking, it’s going to be fascinating to see what Nolan does next. How about an epic modern Macbeth. Or taking a past space odyssey to the next dimension. Even the story of Boudica.

Future of Aviation: Enhancing Safety and Resilience

The aim is clear. A safe, secure, sustainable and resilient international aviation system. I’d add to that list an ambition to continuously improve.

And that’s in the face of the challenge that was recognised 30-years ago. With an aviation system that knows how to archives a high level of safety, even incremental improvement is challenging. Factor in projected air traffic growth that’s unabating. What we know is that that continuously improving the global accident rate requires active interventions. 

Since here I can only highlight the key priorities, I’ll choose three aspects of active intervention. Back to what I said earlier in my talk. Aviation is still climbing a maturity ladder. Digitisation has facilitated a growth in proactive work. Initiatives and plans identify actions aimed at solving known aviation safety problems. But the next step remains some way off. It’s that ability to anticipate safety problems before they occur. To predict.

We have the notion of safety intelligence. There are Big Data projects that are gathering large quantities of aviation safety data. Today, what might be called prognostics continues to depend on expert judgement. That’s not negative, as such. In fact, that augmented by objective and trustworthy safety intelligence is a route to the next step in maturity.

In my view, here’s the three categories that must be addressed now and, in the next decade.

  • One is a foundation stone of aviation safety work. It’s the capability and will to react in a timely manner to events. Not just accidents and serious incidents but any event that elevates aviation safety risks above acceptable levels.

Top operational risk that are likely to need immediate actions are those involving loss of control and those concerning runway incidents.

To take timely corrective action the results of investigation need to be readily available. As pointed out by the industry, across the globe, there’s much scope for improvement here. Timeliness matters.

  • My next category is that of systemic risks. System wide safety risks. People, organisations, processes, procedures, the human factor and human performance issues.

Much is being done to ensure the effective implementation of safety management systems (SMS). The four pillars of SMS have proven to work – safety policy, risk management, safety assurance and safety promotion.

The acceptance, elimination or mitigation of risks is not an act that begins on one day and stops on the next. Digitation can help but there’s always the dangers of the needle in a haystack or even problems sitting in plain sight.

What’s often weak is the communication of what’s discovered. Believable, understandable straightforward communication to decision makers is vital.

  • Thirdly, what’s ahead of us is an order of magnitude more complex than what’s gone before. And a rate of change that mindboggling.

I’m calling this emerging aviation safety risks. The question arises; are we ready for advanced leaps in technology? Hydrogen, hybrid propulsion, machine learning, quantum computing, complex airspace networks and robotics. Humans as executive manager whilst retaining control only in emergencies.

It’s a famous quote; data is the new oil. We are ushering in extremely large and complex datasets that will be essential to the workings of automated and autonomous systems. Could data be the new quicksand? This is a huge issue in dense airspace where crewed and uncrewed aircraft must share the airspace.

Another emerging aviation safety risks, that industry and regulators are starting to address is the fact that safety and security have become inseparable. In the past, these disciplines were addressed as silos. That’s no longer viable.

Another emerging aviation safety risk is that of the workforce. Aviation has attracted dedicated professionals who acquire experience and train to a high level of competence. A safety culture has been embedded. In this respect the fundamentals of aviation safety remain constant.

The rapid growth of technology is a two-edged sword. Now, there are many opportunities for future generations, but aviation may not be at the top of the list of choices, as it has been. There’s a serious aviation safety risk if serious investments are not made, people are not motivated and able to gain the competencies needed by a rapidly changing industry.

To sum up. Everything I’ve spoken of can only be addressed in partnerships. In the past, the aviation industry and its regulators have proven themselves to be imaginative, resilient and forward looking.

The challenges ahead, dare I say, are even greater. Levels of integration, interdependency and rapid technology adoption are off the charts. Yet, I believe we can continually improve global aviation safety. We can step up.

POST: Farnborough International Air Show 2026. 20-24 July 2026.

Current State of Aviation Safety: Data-Driven

The present day. Today. There will be Press Releases galore at this air show. I expect ambitious and upbeat predictions. More orders. More growth. More developing markets. Demands for more skilled people, more performance, more pressure for the early adoption of rapidly changing technologies.

My subject is safety. Where are we with aviation safety in the present day? There’s a sound legacy. Afterall aviation has a long tail. What we have now, and if I look at the Farnborough Airshow catalogue of ten years ago[1], is digitisation. The ambition to be data-driven. A continuing drive to exploit data of all kinds. Extracting information from ever increasing sources in aviation.

This desire for actionable safety intelligence is not new. On my desk I have a coaster celebrating the UK CAA’s MOR Scheme[2]. That’s been alive for 50 years (1976-2026). Occurrence data has been, and is being, used to construct all sorts of safety performance indicators. These indicators can be useful but it’s not always so. They are fuel for safety management systems.

I used the word “actionable” with purpose. Today, making the results of safety data analysis useable by front-line actors and responsible managers has been a challenge we wrestle. I’ve often heard it said – that’s great but what do I do about it? Too many “greens” on a chart and complacency can set in. Too many “reds” and everyone goes into panic mode.

I have been fortunate to work with a number of safety initiative. One called the Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) in the US. To match its work, on this continent, I set up a European version; ECAST in 2006. The focus was on data-drive analysis. There’re safety teams for Rotorcraft and General Aviation too.

These safety initiatives came about a reactive way. Reporting in 1997, the Gore Commission, was a reaction to dilemmas that is still with us. What to do in the wake of catastrophic accidents. And more pertinent to this talk; what to do when the global accident rate curve looks flat at the same time as predictions are for a significant growth in global air traffic. Reading this report now, the predictions were horrifying. Predictions of one large aeroplane fatal accident every week by now. Luckily, commercial air transport didn’t suffer that fate.

I should NOT say “luckily”. Current safety performance is down to an enormous amount of work done by thousands of aviation professionals over a sustained period. Not only this but shocks, whether they be financial crisis, volcanic eruptions or global pandemics, have tested this industry severely.

Taking on board what was learned over the decades, safety management has developed and matured. Incorporated in aviation’s safety regulatory framework, it’s now practiced across the whole industry. Almost. We don’t just react. We now have Safety Plans. Lists of actionable tasks aimed at continuous safety improvement. On the scale mentioned earlier – we are proactive.

Let me stop. This is not a utopia. I’d say at least half the global aviation industry is struggling with the need to be proactive. So, the road we are travelling on remains a long one. We don’t just need the capability to do better; we need to maintain the will to do better.

[1] 50th Farnborough Air Show in 2016.

[2] https://www.caa.co.uk/about-us/make-a-report-or-complaint/report-something/mor/occurrence-reporting/

The Evolution of Aviation Safety: A Historical Overview

A quick tour of the history of aviation safety. In a couple of minutes.

As powered aircraft took to the skies it quickly became apparent that, of all the means of transport, aviation was less forgiving than others. Moving at speed in four dimensions, with the necessity to take-off and land safely, has inherent risks. By no means does this mean that flying is an dangerous activity. What it does necessitate is an exercise of sound engineering, preparation, and proficiency. When these are missing, and in cases of misfortune, accidents and serious incidents happen.

In the days between the world wars, aviation moved from the military and a circus-like amusement to a viable means of public transport. Progressively, more passengers had the opportunity to experience the wonders of flight.

Today, it’s not the early days of flight I want to focus on, but we do owe the engineers and aviators of that time a great debt. Much was learned as aeronautics matured. Since the end of the second world war the production, promotion and application of standards has embedded what had been learned. This has established the way that international civil aviation works.

One simple expression of the stages we’ve been through is Prof Patrick Hudson’s[1] model. This model describes five distinct levels of cultural maturity. The steps are pathological, reactive, calculative, proactive and generative.

This model sits alongside steps in the development of technology that have been a hallmark of aviation. Different categorisations exist. AIRBUS[2] has one that’s easily understood in terms of generations of civil aircraft.

First are the “classics” of the 1950s and 60s. Next, the second generation starts down the road of more electronics. More safety critical systems. Third generation starts flying in the early 1980s when automation becomes the norm (early fly-by-wire, glass cockpits, flight management systems). The fourth generation introduces safety systems, which address the major causes of fatal accidents, namely Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT) and Loss Of Control In-Flight (LOC-I). That’s the early 1990s. When I made that move from industry (design and production) to an aviation safety regulator.

Now, I’d say we are well into fifth generation aircraft, with composite structures and integrated modular avionics. In fact, we are well into speculation about what the sixth generation may look like. Machine learning, single pilot operations, hybrid powerplants, aircraft as a node on a network.

Because aviation is a learning industry, and a conservative one, the expectation is of progressive improvement in maturity throughout the aviation system and innovative technology applied to enhance safety.

This is not to say that the potential for error, missteps and recklessness don’t exist. They do. I expect continuity in a way that takes full advantage of advanced methods without scarifying the legacy of an astonishing good global aviation safety achievement.

Later, to cover a lot of ground in a short time, I’m going to condense all the above into three distinct categories. But before that, I’ll talk about the present and a vision of the future.

POST: UK Farnborough Air Show on Thursday 23rd July 2026. Time: 13:00-13:15 BST. Location:  Hall 3 Stage. Session title Where Next for Aviation Safety?

[1] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0925753507000227?via%3Dihub

[2] https://d10x.airbus.com/generation-of-jets/