A New Era of Disruption

Where is it all going? Now, there’s a question to ask. Through the media pages there’s the signals of unprecedented change. It’s not as if we are sailing through smooth air, on a clam Sunday afternoon. No, it’s turbulence all the way.

Disruptors are getting the headlines. They don’t have to be clever. They don’t have to be honest. I’m expecting a headline along the lines of: “Everything you knew about spiders is wrong. They are from Alpha Centauri”. It’s only a matter of time. 4.3 light-years away is nothing, after all. Elon Musk will be there at the drop of a hat. Technology permitting.

My prediction maybe a bit off the wall but it’s to illustrate the point of media frenzy that is absorbing the public space of the moment. Much as we might see ourselves as a sophisticated species where a forum is a place of philosophical debate. Where thinkers and politicians test their theories in an open public space. We have the front page of the likes of the Daily Mail instead. Stories about reality shows gone wrong trump concerns about real reality.

It’s a new age. That said, it’s always a new age. In the world of politics and governance we have been here before. To an extent. Type the letters “SDP” into a popular search engine and it’s likely to come up with the Social Democratic Party (SDP). It’s a defunked political party. Or is that just my search engine? In 1981, a spin-off of the Labour Party, the “Gang of Four” showed great promise. Suddenly a step change in the UK’s political terrain seemed possible. A small group of seasoned politicians started to articulate a set of policies that people appeared to like.

To cut it short, that political experiment was absorbed and didn’t lead to the radical change of the landscape that was expected. Over the last 35 years the ideas spoken of by the SDP have not gone away but they have been absorbed and diluted. This does lead me to wonder if the schism between conservatives, those on the right-wing of UK politics, will not eventually melt away. The great big sponge of institutional lethargy will swallow up the dissenters. Loud disruptors on the make will merge with the elephantine traditions of past generations.

What I now think is that such thinking is dangerous. It’s all to do with the rapid nature of change. It’s to do with historic analogies becoming less relevant. It’s to do with an unparalleled speed of interconnection, interaction and interdependency. The landscape has changed.

The media is so important because we need stories to make sense of the world. Our place in the world and possible future is shaped by the results of a mass of interconnection, interaction and interdependency. Dare I say – No man is an island.

Usually when we experience a disruption to a commonly accepted narrative there’s a push back. An innate caution resides in us all. It maybe primitive. A tribal instinct.

This is where the digital world has changed our experiences. For all time. If every day (every hour) there’s a minor disruption, say a story about UFOs, the ground on which we stand starts to shift. Our shared sense-making starts to question and before we know it the fringe belief becomes common place.

Traditional institutions will confront disruptive change with opinion polls, spreadsheets, detailed analysis and studies. Interestingly, enabled and enhanced by digital technology. However, they are like the fire truck that turns up after the house has burned down.

Brexit was proof to me that a step-change can be driven by manipulating information. A political rupture can be advanced. A collapse of trust can be engineered. Now, that is frightening.

Reflections on 30 Years as a UK Parliamentary Candidate

Politics in the UK is as volatile as ever it’s been. Although, that’s maybe overstating the situation. It doesn’t take much to revisit past years to remember that dramatic moments occur more often that we might think. A constant media frenzy is not so uncommon.

My experience of standing as a UK Parliamentary Candidate in a General Election goes back to 1997. Now, that was a dramatic year in the life of the UK. It was part of the ding-dong of the passing of political power between two major political parties. And the change was one that the whole country felt was coming. However, the Labour landslide result was a surprise.

My hopes of success in the constituency of Epsom and Ewell were somewhat ambitious. At that time in the county of Surrey, it was truly an era when a donkey could stand for election wearing a blue rosette and it would get elected. Having established myself in that part of Surrey, I had a second go at Epsom and Ewell in 2001. My main opponents had changed but the lay of the land wasn’t so different. The shoe-in Conservative candidate wrapped themselves in the Union Jack flag and worshiped Margaret Thatcher[1]. That’s all they needed to do.

My next outing as a UK Parliamentary Candidate was in 2010. That’s quite a gap. In those years my professional career was moving fast so the time for politics was limited. I arrived in Crawley in West Sussex, without any possibility of winning and becoming a Member of Parliament (MP). On the upside, I did know the town and a lot of the issues that impacted the place. In this town the competition was part of that ding-dong of the passing of political power between two major political parties. The result swung from Labour to Conservative.

My next outing as a General Election candidate was in the constituency of Runnymede & Weybridge in Surrey in 2015. It was the second one with a tangible aviation connection[2]. This time, I was up against a government minister. A chancellor. However, it was politics of the same long standing Surrey County kind. The most interesting public meeting on this occasion was the one held at the Royal Holloway[3]. Like irritating nits, the university’s Labour students made themselves evident.

I went back to Runnymede & Weybridge in 2017. Same location but a different flavour of election campaign. Brexit had thrown poison on the campaign trail. One well attended public meeting at Strode’s[4] I shared a platform with another Conservative man who was to become chancellor. A highly unsuccessful one.

You would think that I’d have got the message by now. Surrey has been a baston of Conservative support for decades. Even centuries. Shifting that position was to require decades of effort.

In 2019, for the first time, I stood for a national election in the place where I lived. The small town of Reigate in Surrey needed to change. I wanted to bring about that change. Again, the reversion of the local electorate to patterns of voting passed down the years was not going to be shifted. They re-elected an MP that subsequently they must have regreted doing so.

I mentioned Margaret Thatcher. Her influence was certainly hovering over my next outing. Grantham and Bourne saw me on the ballot paper in 2024. Entering the lion’s den turned out to be much more pleasant than I’d anticipated. Getting to know Stamford[5] was a pure delight. Sadly, my election results were the worst I’ve delivered so far. No regrets. It’s only by doing these things that I’ve accumulate some unique experiences.

What’s it like to be a parliamentary candidate? For all the ups and downs of these 30-years it’s an opportunity to be cherished. Fine, I’ve not changed the world. I’ll not be sitting in the Palace of Westminster. Those campaigning efforts have been forgotten by most people.  

Let’s go back to Epsom and Ewell. Imagine the smile on my face when at the last General Election, the Liberal Democrat candidate won.

[1] https://www.gov.uk/government/history/past-prime-ministers/margaret-thatcher

[2] https://www.brooklandsmuseum.com/

[3] https://www.royalholloway.ac.uk/

[4] https://www.strodes.ac.uk/

[5] https://www.visitlincolnshire.com/destinations/stamford/

Unity and Conflict

New news? Party sources say x% believed there should be a different leader. So said a notable political correspondent under the banner “Labour leaders try to restore morale.” The article went on to say: “…arguing that the party must pull itself together and “steer a straight course” if it wanted to win the next general election.”

“But Mr Kinnock, facing mounting criticism, has chosen a different forum to launch his fightback after an unhappy three weeks that has seen the Conservatives take a 12 percent lead in the polls.”

Party politics can be a terribly cruel sport. That’s not new in all of history. This quoted article, from the 1980s has a kind of resonance with what’s happening now. The roles are different as Labour was trying to find a way of ousting the Conservative Party from power. It took them until 1997 to find a formula that worked. There’s no doubt that Kinnock did the groundwork that made the electoral success of New Labour possible. Reading my newspaper cutting, it wasn’t exactly a pleasant time.

Is this what’s happening to the Labour Party now? Sir Keir Starmer did the groundwork to win power. But Mr Starmer, facing mounting criticism, has chosen to continue his fightback after an unhappy few weeks that has seen the others prosper from his numerous shortcomings.

What next? Is it for the next Party leader, and thus Prime Minister, to make effective use of the power that remains? The threat is no longer the past enemy, the Conservative Party. Now, Reform UK are giving the impression of being the greater opposition come the next general election.

Why are we so distressed at squabbling within an important political party? This has been an almost permanent feature of British politics.

A combination of at least two fixed elements makes conflict inevitable with Parties. As well as between Parties. One is the adversarial style of British politics. Two is the primitive First Past The Post (FPTP) electoral system.

Both elements assume that two of the largest political Parties will forcefully lock horns. To maintain their preeminent positions, as the largest, they must encompass a lot of people who simply do not agree with each other. There’s as much politics within the politics as there is in the real world. Leadership is as much about maintaining a degree of unity as it is governing the country.

With decades of accumulated experience, it might be reasonable to think that the established political Parties would have this one nailed. Surprisingly, that never seems to be the case.

The advice in the 1980s was: “His closest friends believe that the only way forward is to try to turn the situation around by going on the offensive against …………….” The target for an offensive here has changed but the idea is a classic one.

Will we be seeing Labour Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer mount an all-out offensive against UK Reform? Thus, keeping his colleagues from plotting and scheming. I wonder. Certainly, this will make for an interesting month ahead.

Future Aircraft Systems

I read that there’s lesson to learn from the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS) experience that plagued Boeing. And led to fatalities. There’s a lot that has been written about the tragic saga. Much of great value.

It’s true. Aviation advances as the community learns lessons from incidents and accidents. Yes, there’s variability in the effectivity of this learning process. Occasions when oceans are written about one case and dozens of others are given an inappropriate light touch[1]. A trustworthy centralised repository of safety recommendations from published aviation accident reports is a useful tool. A point of reference. In the first months of the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) in Cologne, back in 2005, my team established such a database. It’s only possible to track the follow-up of key safety recommendation if there’s a well-maintained administrative system. Safety is often about the intelligent use of data.

Cockpit design, and the human factors issues involved, are without doubt one of the most critical parts of an aircraft. Society is not ready for fully autonomous passenger carrying aircraft. I believe it will happen, in decades to come but the horizon is way off. For certain types of vehicles, autonomy must be the solution given that flight control is beyond human capacities. Here’s I’m thinking mostly of hypersonic and space flight.

For a pilot to exercise responsibility for a flight there’s a need to have, at least, a basic understanding of what a machine is doing. In past times of strings and wires and clockwork instruments that understanding was ingrained knowledge gained from training and experience.

Future aircraft systems will not be easily described as functional blocks that perform well understood and dedicated functions. An autopilot, an autothrottle, autobraking, a flight management system, even an engine. Hybridisation is coming.

That does not mean a pilot must understand the inner working for a multicore microprocessor or complex software algorithm. Flight test pilots being the exception, in this case.

The design goal should always be to make safer systems. Engineering these aircraft systems is not a case of purely fitting together a set of Lego like components. The error made with the MCAS is one that ignored this fact. Interdependencies are manyfold.

Ideally, future aircraft systems, however capable and complex, should be describable, predicable, and ultimately trustworthy. These words sound so simple. One reason this is not simple is that very word – complex. The minute that there’s a massive number of possible combinations and permutations of conditions at may exit boundaries must be set. What’s a little more reassuring is that complexity if far from new in human experience[2].

Just to make the airspace of the future even more complex it’s no longer correct to think of an aircraft as alone and free to make any appropriate manoeuvre. Increasing connectivity, cybersecurity, and artificial intelligence (AI) all come into the mix.

To stay safe, pilots will have to appreciate how constraints and boundaries are managed. This information must be provided transparently and preferable with options.

[1] https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/opinions/the-safety-paradox-fewer-accidents-greater-responsibility/

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wheat_and_chessboard_problem

Celebrating Local Democracy

Thursday, a day named after a hammer-wielding Norse thunder God. That’s a good day on which to hold elections. And so, it is in the UK. A tradition, the origins of which I don’t know. One thing I can imagine is that it’s a day of the week when there remains time left over to count votes and deal with disputes before the weekend hits. Not a bad choice to make given that the first days of the week can be put aside for preparations.

I’m accustomed to local authorities who start the formal count of votes as soon as the polls close. This can be done where the electorate is of a manageable size. Polls usually close at ten in the evening. Ballot boxes are then transported to the count, often housed in a large sports hall or civil building of some kind.

If I go back as far as the late 1980s, I remember evenings spent in the Town Hall in Cheltenham[1]. The election count was a grand civic affair. Lots of, what I thought at the time, as unnecessary pomp and ceremony. Now, I think that wasn’t such a bad idea. A celebration of a cornerstone of our democracy. This event even stretched to a late-night announcement made on the balcony of the Town Hall to an assembly of people standing outside in the cold.

[To be allowed into the premises where an election count is held, the presiding officer[2] must accept you as a candidate or formal counting agent. The local press often get access too.]

There’s a couple of purposes in this short article.

One, please take time to say something good about your local council. I know council officers put an immense amount of effort in making sure that elections run smoothly. It’s incredibly easy to take this dedicated work for granted. Ensuring a complete and up-to-date electoral register, getting out poll cards, running polling stations and a count doesn’t happen by magic.

Yes, I know you can cynically say that people are paid to do this work. The reality is that running elections effectively, efficiently and with integrity calls for commitments above and beyond the normal the workday. As a counting agent, I’ve stood opposite bleary eyed counters sitting there well past midnight, after a fiery recount. This vital work requires concentration and fortitude.

Next, I’d like to raise glass to the candidates. Those people who put themselves forward for election, most of which will not be elected. They will be quickly forgotten, however much effort they put into their campaigns. In a small number of cases, people are elected unopposed but that’s a small number of cases.

In vibrant communities up and down the length of the land, the political parties will field candidates. Typically, these volunteers will stand for the Labour Party, Reform UK, Green Party, Liberal Democrats, Conservative and Unionist Party. In places there will be independent candidates and those organised under other banners, like resident associations.

At a local level these candidates are not professional politicians. Some may aspire to have a political career, but the majority are trying to make a difference in their community. To make our democracy work, everyone depends on someone stepping forward. Having a go. This isn’t always to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune, or to take arms against a sea of troubles, but it can be.Demands can be high, in time and effort, as lot of local authorities live in turbulent situations.

[1] https://cheltenhamtownhall.org.uk/

[2] https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/

Understanding Conspicuity

It’s a weird word. That’s if you have not come across it before. How it’s used depends a lot on the context. Conspicuity isn’t everyday langauage.

One way to picture this word is to imagine a cyclist on a busy but poorly lit road. This is a case every driver has observed, I’m sure. Let’s consider two distinct cases. One where the cyclist is wearing dark cloths and riding without lights. The other case is where the cyclist is wearing a luminous jacket and is riding with lights. No prizes for guessing which one is the most conspicuous. Not only that, but the one who is less likely to be involved in an accident.

This is a simple two-dimensional space where two vehicles, or more, share a road. Both have a right to be there. However, one road user is much more vulnerable than the other. Being noticed, being seen, is key to a rider’s safety. Not a guarantee of safety. A necessary consideration, if not a mandatory one. Both driver and rider need to see each other for there to be safe operation.

In aviation the situation gets a whole lot more complex. For a start flying objects move in three-dimensional space and at speeds that can differ dramatically. From a static ballon to a fast military jet. Yet, just like driving on the roads the most basic way of avoiding collisions is to see and avoid. Naturally, there are a whole collection of rules of the air that wrap around that requirement. These rules set-up expectations that pilots will behave in predicable ways.

As technology has developed so the reliance on see and avoid has changed. Recently, I have found this is happening on the roads too. Sensors on my new car provide an autobraking function that kicks in when approaching a slower moving vehicle ahead. There’s a tracking function that nudges the steering wheel when drifting across a white line. Both forms of safety automation can be deselected. Do they result in fewer collisions? I don’t know.

There’s another aspect of flying that is an obvious difference from life on the roads. When collisions happen those involved are not going to stay put. Gravity will do its job. If an impact is sufficiently severe then it’s highly likely that one or more aircraft will not be flyable. An incident turns quickly into a catastrophe.

Thus, in aviation it’s vital that not only does each pilot need to know where they are but they need to know about everything around them. The condition of being conspicuous is not optional. It’s best if aircraft are easy to see. Surprisingly, this is far from always being the case. Unlike the lines on the roads, paths in the air crisscross and aircraft can be above and below one another. The geometry involved can get extremely complicated.

In the 1920s, innovations in Croydon[1] led to the world’s first air traffic control system. A growing amount of air traffic meant that a means had to be found to regulate their use of the air space. This was possible because an electronic means of aircraft communication had become viable.

The subject of Electronic Conspicuity[2] has come on in leaps and bound ever since. Finding ways of sharing awareness of everyone’s situation has made aviation safer. Radar and aircraft transponders are an integral part of commercial flying. This story doesn’t stop. I could go as far as to say that this whole subject is still in its infancy. With ever more airspace users demanding access then innovations continue to be absolutely vital.

[1] https://www.flightglobal.com/ops-safety/2020/02/colourised-images-mark-centenary-of-worlds-first-control-tower/

[2] https://www.caa.co.uk/General-aviation/Aircraft-ownership-and-maintenance/Electronic-Conspicuity-devices/

Local Elections: Challenges and Opportunities

Listening to the leader of the opposition in the UK is like listening to a paddle boat[1] rider whose getting swept out to sea. Paddling ever faster, piling on the rhetoric, with no idea how to get back to the shore. It’s probably a big plastic duck with flaky paint and no safety certificate.

Equating talking tough with talking faster doesn’t cut it. Using the word “plan” without having one is aiming for deep trouble. Doubling down on past errors of judgement isn’t the least bit convincing. Drawing intendable distinctions, as if in front of a judge, impresses few listeners.

May’s elections coming around the corner. These are predominantly local elections. So, when Party leaders bypass the hardy perennials, like the state of the potholes in the roads, and veer off into international politics it’s clear they haven’t much to say. Local authorities provide a substantial number of vital services and so there’s plenty of subjects to address, if they would be minded to do so.

Here we are in a state of play that has a real air of novelly about it. The two tribes that have dominated politics in this country are struggling in the doldrums. Both the Conservative Party and the Labour Party are floundering. Tarnished by a lengthy list of past mistakes. Their current leaders unable to project a vision for the future.

Here we have no council elections this year. Either elections are held once every four-years or a proportion of a local authority are up for election every year. There’s merit in both schemes.

In the first case there can be a more dramatic change of leadership as a whole council changes in one go. That can give the winners a clear mandate to meet a particular promise. On the downside, one emotive campaign issue can dominate, even if it’s small relative to the impact of a new four-year administration.

In the second case there’s a more gradual change of political complexion of a local council. More chance of continuity of actions and polices. Also, the local electorate get in the habit of expressing a view and an election every year at the same time. On the downside this can put more power in the hands of the council officers than the elected councillors.

Overall, I prefer annual local elections in May, despite the cost associated with their running. It’s a better way of engaging the community rather than a build-up to a bigger event. It’s also easier to find candidates who are willing and able to stand for election and likely to see through a full-term in office.

This week is a week for political scientist to chew over something other than opinion polls. Real ballots, in real ballot boxes are so much more real. Professor John Curtice will be on every media outlet. We will see if the predication of the steady decline of the Conservative Party and the Labour Party come about.

I expect that result will be the one that people are talking about at the end of the week. In my view there will be a distribution of votes across the choices that are on the ballot. This will not mean greater clarity or definition of where we are heading as a country. As a liberal, I can’t complin if there’s a great diversity of views expressed.

What I can say it that we will need a better electoral system that copes with a multiple Party array of choices. Electoral reform[2] is likely to become a necessity.

[1] https://swanpedalboats.com/ducks/

[2] https://electoral-reform.org.uk/

Sustainability in Aviation

Conventional thinking pervades. It’s the model for seeming to be reasonable. To grow consensus and find a middle way through opposing parties. To bend in response to the wind that blows from popular opinion. Institutions are inclined to go this way. This is not surprising when an organisation is set-up to serve a large constituency. There’s the need to emphasise the parts of public policy that coincide with the mission of the institution. To push back gently against the ones that run adverse to that mission too. The Royal Aeronautical Society’s (RAeS) position paper on Airports[1] is a nice example. Here’s a few points that come to mind.

Linking Airports and Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) isn’t such a good idea. Yes, there’s the fact that Airports have infrastructure which every form of air transport needs. That’s the upside. The downside is the competing for resources and high cost of the provisions at major Airports. There’s a degree of environmental saturation that can’t be avoided.

One of the greatest opportunities for AAM is that of entirely new air transport links. Afterall, a Vertiport needn’t take up much space. As long at there’s plenty of electrical power and links with other modes of transport there are exciting possibilities.

A long time ago the commuter class of aircraft operations was created in the US. These were referred to as air taxies (fixed wing). The idea was then to open a travel market at a layer below large transport operation. It wasn’t that successful but does show mixes of types of traffic at major Airports doesn’t work out for the smaller parties.

Regional airports, and their potential, are greatly undersold. It’s wrong to see them as merely part of a hub and spoke network. What they do best is to serve their local communities. Having recently flown through Bournemouth (Hurn) Airport for the first time, it’s clear that so much can be done to spread the load and make traveling again a pleasant experience.

To me, I see the emperor’s new clothes. The case of the expansion of London Heathrow Airport (LHR) is not viable. Dressed up as an investment opportunity this continuation of incremental development is what we do badly in the UK. Environmental saturation has hit the rails. The proposers are dressing up a project that is the proverbial putting of eggs in one basket.

I don’t think the same can be said of London Gatwick Airport (LGW). In fact, squeezing the amount of capacity out of what’s there now is a feat of amazing ingenuity. Surely, that major London airport does need a genuine second runway. Even with less good than needed surface access this former racecourse has the ingredients for success.

Yes, I know it’s difficult to get away from London centric thinking in the UK. Nevertheless, that’s what’s needed to ensure the whole country thrives. Airport policies that lump everything else as “others” or under one label as “regional” aren’t tacking the challenges. The UK as major cities. Each has significant needs for air transport.

Some say that environmental objectives and Airport expansion are not compatible. The difficulties are clear to see. Each area of concern needs resources at a level commiserate with the needs. Quality of life, in and around Airports, should not be traded for economic benefits alone. Tackling air quality, water quality, on and off Airport noise, waste management, traffic volumes, overflight privacy, and enhancing biodiversity are not merely nice to haves.

[1] https://www.aerosociety.com/media/29306/raes-airport-expansion-in-the-uk-position-paper-april-2026.pdf

Make a mark

Daily writing prompt
Do you vote in political elections?
View all responses

I vote, stand, campaign, but never officiate in public ones. It needs to be said time and time again. Particularly to younger people. If you don’t vote, then don’t complain afterwards. Not that, that would make much difference afterwards given that complaining is part of our culture. A cross in a box, as it is in the UK, mostly, is key part of a citizen’s responsibility. Make a mark, even if it seems small beer. That said, it’s as well to take a moment to consider the candidates in front of you on their individual merit.