johnwvincent

Unite or divide?

It’s a biblical quote: “A house divided against itself cannot stand” and it was used by Abraham Lincoln in Springfield, Illinois on 16 June 1858. In a speech against slavery, he said: “I believe this Government cannot endure, permanently half slave and half free.” Lincoln was right but at that time he was heavily criticised for his courageous remarks.

Today, we are at a simple crossroads. Two widely different political philosophies are in combat over our future. This is a recurrent situation that waxes and wanes throughout our long history. This fight is strikingly encapsulated in the campaigning antics of the social media age.

Temporarily, in the ascendancy is one approach that thrives on division. Prompting and nurturing conflict wherever it can be found. It’s strangely Darwinian, in setting one against another as a test to see who prevails. Its instruments are aggressive, gaudy and indiscriminate. It drains moral and wastefully plunders optimism.

As if it were the flip side of a coin, then we have a philosophy which prides itself; so easily summed up by the phrase: “the whole is greater than the sum of its parts”. The notion is that happiness, prosperity and strength come from cooperation and partnership. It’s a constructive approach that believes that human institutions can be built to positively improve life.

Now 2018, we are 160 years from Lincoln’s speech and our national “house” is indeed divided. Whether you call it; Like or Dislike, Left or Right, Remain or Leave, North or South, Public or Private, Nationalist or Internationalist, a polarising tribalism has set into our public debate.

I’ve set out to address the question: Why is it so difficult to occupy the centre ground? Well, there it is; it profits some people to divide and rule. Each of us is too easily drawn into the idea that our utopia can only be built by destroying the imagined utopia of another. OK. It’s not grumpiness that I want to promote. It’s all too easy to fall into the trap of thinking that there’s no way out of this perpetual conflict and that its all bad.

Back to Lincoln a couple of lifetimes ago. He was defeated so you might conclude that his; “A house divided against itself cannot stand” speech was a failure. Truth is, it was not. Friends later concluded that his speech did awaken people. It was like clearing the path of debris so that people could get from A to B with hope and ambition.

I think, that’s what we need this coming year. A dramatic reassertion that we work better together. A proclamation and a proof that cooperation in Europe is a benefit to every single citizen. Building a better world is a joint activity and not a lone struggle.

Future positive

So, what might be on the road ahead? It’s clear, the road behind is littered with failures and mistakes but we have the capacity to learn from what went wrong in 2016 and 2017. The year ahead is a great opportunity to make amends. It’s the verge of the New Year and I’m happy to indulge in one or two predictions for 2018.

Efforts at predictions are a mix of; what happened last time, where are we now and leaps of the imagination. Here I’ll offer more than a couple of leaps of the imagination. Nevertheless, this is offered with a grounding of practical possibility.

Will there be a UK General Election in 2018? I think it’s a 50-50 roll of the dice. In precarious circumstances it doesn’t take a lot to completely upend the political landscape.

If Labour has a strategy, and it maybe let’s just wait and see, it’s going to dissolve like sugar in the rain. The Conservatives have a kind of strategy but it’s a single-track railway line that ends in a cliff fall. On both hard left and right, a certain number of people will always be found to be perpetually angry with the world. They will continue to fuel much noise, smoke and mirrors.

This all points to a massive calamity which may, in fact, be a positive one. Out of the ashes will come several new notable leaders, movers and shakers. I’d say there’s a good chance that one of them will be charismatic enough to recapture the centre ground.

Even with the possibilities above, 2018 will be predominantly a wasted year for Government, much in the way of 2017. What I mean is that the overwhelming focus will be on Brexit disasters, attempts at recovery and newspeak worthy of “The Thick of It”.

On the positive side, public and private organisations will kick in their worst case scenario contingency measures and by chance they will work. A robust economy will struggle to finance these measures but a defacto-exit from Brexit will start to emerge. The public mood will shift towards a positive pragmatic European stance and start to see of retro-politicians as to blame for the previous wasted years. Having failed successively, populist nationalist will sink to less than 5% in the polls. At the same time, popular non-governmental organisations will see their membership grow significantly.

In my view, a referendum or General Election is likely in 2019. I can’t say what shape a winning Party of collection of Parties will be, but they will be different from anything we have seen before. The anger that weaves through the social media of politics will still be there but a new generation of politicians will have adapted to this environment. There will be an appetite for tackling big problems rather than running away. Its often said that fashion is cyclic. Keep those flared trousers for long enough and you will get to wear them again.

Optimistically, I’d say the decade from 2020 will be one where Britain returns to the European family and prospers greatly as a result.

Pinocchio’s Government

A couple of subjects have come up during the week. Both have implications for British agriculture of all shapes and sizes. One is immigration and the other is State subsidies.

There are some tales being told by the Westminster Government and its supporters that should be making their noses grow in the way of Pinocchio. Problem is that these tales tap into the basic prejudices held by a high percentage of the readers of the right-wing Press in England. This is British politics, so I should not be surprised that a faction of the Conservative Party is driving stories to advance its own Brexit fantasies.

Let’s take immigration first. Evidence is out there to show that free movement of people in Europe does not take jobs from British workers. It’s true, Mrs May in her Home Office days, endeavoured to supress that evidence but it’s there nevertheless. With the latest announcements from the Conservative Government there is the expectation that British workers will be queuing up to take the jobs vacated by mainland Europeans as they are all sent home in a couple of years’ time.

The only que I can see forming is a line of salesmen promoting the latest systems of automation to all and sundry in farming and horticulture. It’s not long ago that the idea of robots milking cows seemed the stuff of science fiction but not any longer. Relentlessly agriculture is shedding labour and adopting such wonders as self-driving tractors and domes to monitor crops.

Telling low-skilled British workers that there will be fields of jobs post-Brexit is a horrible deception. I hope people do not fall for it.

The other subject that caught my eye was that of the future of agricultural subsidies. Whatever assurances Minister may utter to the countryside they cannot run away from the cost of Brexit. The Treasury’s store of our tax money is going to be needed for health, education and more bureaucrats above the call to spread it on the land.

The removal of subsidies is a political choice and in some cases warranted. Providing support to highly profitable large-scale farming, like the so-called “grain barons” isn’t sustainable. However, to invite wide-spread industrialisation and the final destruction of the family farm is inevitable. It’s likely to empty the hillsides, coastal margins and highlands, import more basic foodstuff and turn the countryside a semi-urban theme park.

Again, Ministers are practicing a horrible post-Brexit deception.

straighten up and fly right

WP_20170826_008 When I hear Mogg, May, Fox, Hannan and other right-wing Tory politicians talk it reminds me of the fable of the scorpion and the frog. Actually, that’s not quite true because, although that fable was deep in my subconscious somewhere, it wasn’t until my wife remined me of it that it truly came to mind.

All of this started with me listening to “straighten up and fly right” by Nat King Cole in a coffee shop this morning. What a great song, by the way.

The story goes like this: A scorpion asks a frog to carry it across a pond. The frog says; “But won’t you sting me?”. Reassuringly the scorpion answers; “No. if I did that we will both drown”. After a moment of hesitation, the frog agrees to carry the scorpion. Then half way across the water the scorpion stings the frog. Alarmed, the frog goes; “Why did you do that?” and the scorpion replies in the only way it can “Because it’s in my nature.”

Well having given the controls to the ship of State to right-wing Tory politicians at General Election, what do you suppose is happening in the UK? The way the situation is panning out, I think we might all be the frogs. It seems illogical, irrational and downright stupid to dooming us all with Brexit but it doesn’t take five minutes with the evidence to see what’s happening.

If ever there was a time we needed to say to the Government either “straighten up and fly right” or go, it’s now. Our situation is no animal fable but it is the economic success of the Nation that is at stake. The creature’s nature is becoming evident as we find ourselves midway in the Brexit negotiations.

Like it or not

WP_20170826_006 I shouldn’t start a sentence; whether we like it or not. It’s too easy to say that a state of affairs is unchangeable and give no proof to that effect. C.S. Lewis said: “Whether we like it or not, God intends to give us what we need, not what we now think we want.” I don’t agree with him but there it is again; no evidence needed because God is invoked.

So, I’ll get around this conundrum and offer some reasons why we just must accept we cannot change a situation that is proving to be more than challenging.

It’s a technocratic world. Or you could say; the geeks have it. My reference goes back to the mid-70s. In that time, we lived in an analogue world. Yes, there were exotic computers being used and predictions coming from science fiction about robots and endless leisure time ahead but most day-to-day experiences involved simple stuff like a pen and paper and a telephone.

To an extent, early digital equipment started to bring more structure into work life as kitchen table management gave way of planning tools and schedules. In the 1980s, the widespread take-up of personal computers meant that the creation of elaborate Gantt charts and spreadsheets became every day. A need for structure and systems gradually overtook the “seat of the pants” way of working.

This was not for everyone, as some organisations considered themselves immune or languished in a holding pattern. A danger of decline faced those who resisted adopting the latest technology and ways of working. Generally, the institutes of Government were slow to change. In particular, the long-lived democratic institutions struggled with the wave of systematic ways of working that have become the mode.

What’s my point? It’s evident to me that, this week, the signals coming from negotiations in Brussels are not good. That part of what is going on is a clash between the new and the old. When systematic and methodical people meet casual, make-it-up-as-you-go along people there’s inevitably a clash. Who’s in the right or who’s in the wrong hardly matters at all if two parties can’t see eye-to-eye. Let’s go back to my initial assertion; it’s a technocratic world. Well it is and the laissez-faire people who try to deny that fact aren’t going to be winners.

Why, oh why, oh why?

WP_20170818_009 Given the realisation that Brexit leaves a bad taste in people’s mouth and slowly but surely the public are turning against the politicians who are driving the Country off the cliff, its surprising that those who choose a different course of action are not having more success. When asked: Brexit would you vote the same again? It’s clear many people have changed their minds but why are they not being adequately represented?

I think there’s a whole series of reasons. Like a scatter gun I’ve listed a few here bellow. Some are big but changeable, some are small but irritating and others hang around like a bad smell. Here’s my list of mistakes made by pro-European campaigners.

Firstly, recognising that forming ghettos of self-affirming friendly parties hasn’t worked. Multiple voices in multiple places all with nuanced differences makes for chaos and despair. Most of all, the inability to form one big coherent group to rally around still evades us. Yet, pages of history show that one or two great orators can capture a moment and transform a situation. So far, the great British orator to speak forth on Europe just hasn’t got to the right lectern. All I can say is; don’t leave it too late.

Secondly, wasting time arguing with trolls, wind-ups and opponents whose wilfully tactics are to keep other people’s wheels springing on unproductive and soul-destroying activity. It’s so human to want to engage and state why we think and feel the way we do but the web is full of scoundrels who will just tie you up in knots. The fear of the empty chair is real. It is to think that by stepping back one’s opponents will have a free hand. Often the reality is that they will just have an empty room.

Third, is starting off on the wrong foot. That’s accepting to reason on the ground set by opponents. It seems obvious but a great deal of time is spent defensively arguing a point of view from the back foot. I say; Brexiters must justify themselves. Those forcing changes of massive proportions on a reluctant Country must be made to answer tough questions. Where they fail to do so, then that’s the place to shine a bright light.

Fourth, backing down when hit with the nastiest of aggressive insults and vile behaviour. Bullies love Brexit. It gives them an outlet for anger and rage from deep inside. The perpetual blaming of “others” but mostly the EU for everything that make people unhappy is just cheap and twisted. Unfortunately, this taps into something that lingers in the dark condors of human nature. In the end, the only way to deal with this phenomenon is the way to deal with any bully – stand your ground.

Fifth, not presenting HOPE as the vanguard. It fundamental that, to win we need a better plan. Not just a return to the ways of old. Not just a call for calm and stability, although that’s important. Not just to dismiss the concerns of others but something bigger. Projecting a vision of a better Europe where we come together to solve common problems is part of the equation. Standing on the foundations of western civilisation to make a better world Europe can and will succeed. Our best hope is a hopeful vision.

Now my list is random and misses a lot but there are points here that need attention.

The scale of the problem

WP_20170818_019 Many people are aware of the Richter scale is used to rate the magnitude of earthquakes. As I waked into a supermarket this lunchtime, I happened to glance the front page of the Daily Telegraph. It was plastered with another one of those stories about how much safety and richer we are all going to be because of Brexit. I didn’t have a chair to fall off but if I did I would have fallen off it. I know it’s the silly season but the ludicrous notions that are spread by the right-wing Press, as a monster face saver, are just beyond belief. The detail isn’t worth bothering about but the effect of such plagues of wrongheaded wibble are real. Normality isn’t normal anymore. It’s disturbing.

It got me thinking that we need a scale to judge the ridiculousness of a Brexit story. A minor bit of fake news about a foreign cat up a tree could be down at one end of the scale. Up at the other end is a front-page story so utterly monstrously absurd that it ruptures the fabric of reality for everyone who reads or hears it. There may even be a potential for developing a Brexit News Story warning system. Now, following Mr Richter’s wise thinking, a scale of zero to ten might just do it. Let’s say:

Between zero and one, not much is felt. Rationality isn’t disturbed. Emotions are not aroused. Any instrument of measurement hardly flickers.

Between one and four you know something crazy is on the table. It gets a bit tricky just to pretend it’s not happening. You are starting to feel slightly annoyed.

Between four and five loud expressions, such as; “they can’t be serious” start to become usable. You really feel you are in the company of strangers from another planet.

Between five and six, damaged reputations are common. Heavy handed “newspeak” is all over the place. Bogus university prophets come out of the woodwork to justly the impossible or improbable.

Between six and seven the straight jacket needs to be on hand. Tin foil helmets are mandatory. Everything is scribbled in fine green ink. Fever pitch anger oozes out of radios upsetting even the hardest heart.

Between seven and eight the total devastation of normality starts to occur. Lemmings fling themselves off cliffs. A rift in time and space seems inevitable. All British cats become millionaires.

Upwards of eight is a place no none sane wants to go. Monkeys at keyboards really do start to write better stories than journalists. The largest ever read or heard piles of nonsense rarely go this far.

My forecast is that over the next 12 months there will be a storm of fives with one or two sevens in certain areas. We should avoid the eights but there is no guarantee.

Inaction & Confusion

WP_20170814_009 There’s so much to indicate what’s going wrong that I’m amazed people are not making more noise. Pound down, inflation up, pay going nowhere, companies moving off-shore and a trade secretary eulogising about selling sunglasses to the world. I know it’s the annual silly season but these are real and not imaginary events. If we don’t take heed of such indicators then further troubles will results with certainty.

Last night, travelling back from Victoria station, I couldn’t help but overhear a conversation that made me think that we are living in strange times as a dangerous passivity has swept over the nation.

To my side there were two well-dressed couples probably in their early 60s. I am guessing that they had been meeting friends at a nice London restaurant for the evening. Conversation ranged from what their friends were doing to the local church. Then politics came up. Loudly one of the men said: “no one is going to invest while we have an unstable Government”. That struck me. Here we have a sample of prosperous middle England strongly voicing the opinion that the current Conservative Government is going nowhere. It’s like people know the Government is failing but they are sitting on their hands waiting for better times. It’s almost as if middle England has gone into stasis.

Another interesting meeting, I had last night was talking to a young Spanish student at the Proms. He was from Madrid but had been taking advantage of the Erasmus Programme studying maths at Warwick. The Erasmus Programme is European funding, offering university students a possibility of studying at European universities. He spoke some German and was an amateur musician. I couldn’t help but think how insane it would be to make it difficult for young people, like him, to study in the UK.

The mindless insanity of Brexit continues. Day-after-day examples show just how wrong the direction we are headed continues to be. Yet, public inaction is the response to the confusion presented by the present Government. There ought to be a huge outcry calling for Mrs May to go. Where is it?

Not too late

WP_20170806_001 I don’t believe the story that many of those we voted Remain have come around to the idea of Brexit. What I do think has happened is a lot of people have been turned off the whole debate because of the crude conduct of a great number of Brexit advocates. There’s the unfortunate “it will be all right on the night” thinking too. Somewhat because we haven’t been accustomed to extreme politics in Britain there’s an underlying assumption that however crazy the talking, sound, solid and sober people in the background will work it out. The reality is that assumption no longer stands.

The Leave campaign know what they did. They were singularly cynical about the campaign they ran. Except for the master manipulators most of those who did vote for Brexit had no idea what it meant.

However, in all 48 million did not vote for Brexit. It’s the future of the whole Country that we should be thinking about and not appeasing the few. That’s the difference between real democracy and mob rule.

It’s now important to campaign for a reversal of this ill-fated path. Failure to do so is almost unthinkable. Young people, now coming of age will be the ones writing the history books. That story can be one of a new dark age or a brighter internationalist era. The choice is ours. As one great, European leader once said: “This is not yet the end … … but it may be the end of the beginning”.

Beginning to awaken to the fact that Europe is better together.

Better Steps

WP_20170804_006 What is needed more than anything else now is a good strategy for backing out of Brexit. It would be ironic if those who criticised the lack of planning for Brexit didn’t have a plan to get out of it. A road map to turn the ship of State around would help to give confidence to the world.

In the mix are legal niceties, political realities and social upsets but none are insurmountable.

The first of these, legal means, maybe the easiest. Since there’s so little written to explain what Article 50 intended in terms of detailed process and procedures then invention is possible. Add to that the fact that those who came up with the original words have expressed the view that the mechanism is reversible. So, when the moment is right it’s a simple matter for the negotiators to close the books and walk away from the table.

A second factor, the politics, is difficult but day-by-day the whole Brexit road trip is becoming more and more unpopular in the UK. For a politician worth their salt there must be the sense that, to be on the winning side, the time is right to move away from the hard liners. To be part of the future it’s time to start making those speeches that spell out what comes next. Not to be reactive and wait for an almighty crisis but to get out ahead and describe a better future.

On the third point, the social element, the shift could get complicated. There is no doubt there would be a degree of revolt orchestrated by the diehard supporters of Brexit. Even if a significant majority clearly show a wish to drop Brexit a powerful, monied and noisy group would kick out. Unfortunately, that means some conflict may be unavoidable but it would be short lived and sporadic in its nature.

Weighing up the costs and benefits of the above, I believe there’s a clear case to drop Brexit before more damage is done. The ways and means are not so complicated and are achievable over a couple of years. How to make all this move forward? The excepted wisdom of the moment is that a second referendum is needed to test the public mood. Equally, a General Election could be the trigger for the change. Alternatively, a realignment of the political parties may be another way to take this step.

Let’s see a confident Britain in Europe and in the rest of the world and do it now.