So, what might be on the road ahead? It’s clear, the road behind is littered with failures and mistakes but we have the capacity to learn from what went wrong in 2016 and 2017. The year ahead is a great opportunity to make amends. It’s the verge of the New Year and I’m happy to indulge in one or two predictions for 2018.
Efforts at predictions are a mix of; what happened last time, where are we now and leaps of the imagination. Here I’ll offer more than a couple of leaps of the imagination. Nevertheless, this is offered with a grounding of practical possibility.
Will there be a UK General Election in 2018? I think it’s a 50-50 roll of the dice. In precarious circumstances it doesn’t take a lot to completely upend the political landscape.
If Labour has a strategy, and it maybe let’s just wait and see, it’s going to dissolve like sugar in the rain. The Conservatives have a kind of strategy but it’s a single-track railway line that ends in a cliff fall. On both hard left and right, a certain number of people will always be found to be perpetually angry with the world. They will continue to fuel much noise, smoke and mirrors.
This all points to a massive calamity which may, in fact, be a positive one. Out of the ashes will come several new notable leaders, movers and shakers. I’d say there’s a good chance that one of them will be charismatic enough to recapture the centre ground.
Even with the possibilities above, 2018 will be predominantly a wasted year for Government, much in the way of 2017. What I mean is that the overwhelming focus will be on Brexit disasters, attempts at recovery and newspeak worthy of “The Thick of It”.
On the positive side, public and private organisations will kick in their worst case scenario contingency measures and by chance they will work. A robust economy will struggle to finance these measures but a defacto-exit from Brexit will start to emerge. The public mood will shift towards a positive pragmatic European stance and start to see of retro-politicians as to blame for the previous wasted years. Having failed successively, populist nationalist will sink to less than 5% in the polls. At the same time, popular non-governmental organisations will see their membership grow significantly.
In my view, a referendum or General Election is likely in 2019. I can’t say what shape a winning Party of collection of Parties will be, but they will be different from anything we have seen before. The anger that weaves through the social media of politics will still be there but a new generation of politicians will have adapted to this environment. There will be an appetite for tackling big problems rather than running away. Its often said that fashion is cyclic. Keep those flared trousers for long enough and you will get to wear them again.
Optimistically, I’d say the decade from 2020 will be one where Britain returns to the European family and prospers greatly as a result.
A couple of subjects have come up during the week. Both have implications for British agriculture of all shapes and sizes. One is immigration and the other is State subsidies.
When I hear Mogg, May, Fox, Hannan and other right-wing Tory politicians talk it reminds me of the fable of the scorpion and the frog. Actually, that’s not quite true because, although that fable was deep in my subconscious somewhere, it wasn’t until my wife remined me of it that it truly came to mind.
I shouldn’t start a sentence; whether we like it or not. It’s too easy to say that a state of affairs is unchangeable and give no proof to that effect. C.S. Lewis said: “Whether we like it or not, God intends to give us what we need, not what we now think we want.” I don’t agree with him but there it is again; no evidence needed because God is invoked.
Given the realisation that Brexit leaves a bad taste in people’s mouth and slowly but surely the public are turning against the politicians who are driving the Country off the cliff, its surprising that those who choose a different course of action are not having more success. When asked: Brexit would you vote the same again? It’s clear many people have changed their minds but why are they not being adequately represented?
Many people are aware of the Richter scale is used to rate the magnitude of earthquakes. As I waked into a supermarket this lunchtime, I happened to glance the front page of the Daily Telegraph. It was plastered with another one of those stories about how much safety and richer we are all going to be because of Brexit. I didn’t have a chair to fall off but if I did I would have fallen off it. I know it’s the silly season but the ludicrous notions that are spread by the right-wing Press, as a monster face saver, are just beyond belief. The detail isn’t worth bothering about but the effect of such plagues of wrongheaded wibble are real. Normality isn’t normal anymore. It’s disturbing.
There’s so much to indicate what’s going wrong that I’m amazed people are not making more noise. Pound down, inflation up, pay going nowhere, companies moving off-shore and a trade secretary eulogising about selling sunglasses to the world. I know it’s the annual silly season but these are real and not imaginary events. If we don’t take heed of such indicators then further troubles will results with certainty.
I don’t believe the story that many of those we voted Remain have come around to the idea of Brexit. What I do think has happened is a lot of people have been turned off the whole debate because of the crude conduct of a great number of Brexit advocates. There’s the unfortunate “it will be all right on the night” thinking too. Somewhat because we haven’t been accustomed to extreme politics in Britain there’s an underlying assumption that however crazy the talking, sound, solid and sober people in the background will work it out. The reality is that assumption no longer stands.
What is needed more than anything else now is a good strategy for backing out of Brexit. It would be ironic if those who criticised the lack of planning for Brexit didn’t have a plan to get out of it. A road map to turn the ship of State around would help to give confidence to the world.
Farce, insanity and slapstick, they have it all. But what they have in spades is confusion. Keir Starmer says one thing then Jeremy Corbyn says something else. The Trade Unions mumble in the background. A chorus of different voices sound off in every different direction. Its near on impossible to figure out exactly what policy the British Labour Party has on Brexit. Just taking one part of the debate around the Single Market and within ten minutes you’ll be totally confused.