Post Art 50 – Page 9 – John Vincent

Responding to the Brexit Blog of Reigate’s MP (Part 1)

The start of the arguments of the Reigate MP are built on sand[1]. One of the fundamentals of the European Union (EU) is that it’s a product of the will of its Member States. To assume that “integration” is a foregone conclusion is to claim that you have a unique knowledge of the future. The general trend is for those advocating greater integration to be declining in political influence. The coming European elections will change the political landscape considerably. In fact, we have a greater problem in the UK with our highly centralised institutions.

The EU has a powerful role on the international stage. That role will grow. As part of the EU this has given the UK increasing influence in the regions and global institutions. Often other regions of the world look to the EU as a role model and a source of solutions to complex intergovernmental issues.

After years and years of turmoil in the UK a Conservative Party Prime Minister made the choice to hold an advisory referendum hoping that this move would resolve a divisive political issue. It was a poor gamble. Of the topics of most concern to the British people the EU was low down on the list until the referendum was announced.

A whole series of dreadful mistruths formed a campaign that traded on fantasy projections. The legalities of the campaign are being questioned in the law courts. Over all this a slim margin gave the “Leave” campaigners a win. In most Countries constitutional changes require more than a simple majority but this did not happen in the UK. Effectively the referendum result caused the biggest single division the UK has ever recorded.

The situation became so bad that a snap General Election was called in 2017. Unfortunately, this ill-judged move created even more national problems. To sum up recent events. We have had, two General Elections, one referendum and two votes on the leadership of the Conservative Party. However, despite these events we have a solid log jam in the UK Parliament.

Now, the arguments for a final Referendum on the deal, that is now in front of the UK Parliament, are strong. Going back to the British people is essential when there’s no clear way forward coming from either the Government or the UK Parliament. Democracy does not end in one day. Many prominent Leave campaigners made exactly this point before June 2016. The ballot is owned by the people not self-serving politicians. Don’t let them tell you: you can’t have a People’s Vote. The choice is clear: the deal on the table or to Remain in the EU.

The Prime Minister and her officials have succeeded in proposing an EU accepted Withdrawal Agreement (WA). The remaining 27 EU Member States have agreed that WA. Everyone can read this document and come to a point of view. Unlike in June 2016, this detailed document is real.

As it stands, one of the greatest difficulties with the WA is that, at least for 2 years, it makes the UK a rule-taker rather than a rule-maker. Across the board people are not willing to accept this deal. Meantime the UK’s Prime Minister is stubborn and deaf to creative and constructive solutions to the impasse. Parliament needs to assert control and advance a Peoples Vote.

[1] my statement …….. intends to give my constituents a clear overview of my position on this fraught and difficult issue for our country.

The British Crisis

Life is full of “if” this or “if” that but it’s the only way we can plan. I’m convinced planning is not optional. Even the simplest diary has one or two dates for things to do in the future. At work, the saying: failure to plan is a plan to fail often rattled around in my head.

We are getting closer to 29 March 2019. If no action is taken, no agreement, no revoking of Article 50, no new referendum then the UK leaves without a deal and all EU treaties will end on 29 March 2019. There are some extremely foolish people who are looking forward to the hardship and suffering that this will cause but thankfully they are in the minority. The real danger is interminable muddle, incompetence and inaction. A great Country, such as ours, should not be entertaining any thought of “crashing out” of a relationship of 40 years. The only triumph would be of failure.

It would be nice to switch off from the political twists and turns at Westminster, but this is a time for action. Englishman Thomas Paine wrote these siring words in late 1776: These are the times that try men’s souls[1]. He was addressing the American crisis of that time. Here, 242 years later we have the British crisis. Now, similar stirring words are needed to overthrow the tyranny of the Brexiters and the hell they promise.

The British Crisis.

When it seems that we are overcome, and every door is closing, we must change. Take a moment to ask the basic question. Who do we want to be?

June 2016 was like an axe falling. Division was the only result. In times of crisis, as now, the ballot is the most powerful right all British citizens have too hand. And the strength of British genius is creative imagination. It’s not for us to be dull drones who blindly walk to the cliff edge. We must take control from a cohort of failed politicians.

Unity is not easily forged. But it’s a vote that can forge that unity. A Peoples Vote can free us from this turmoil. A Peoples Vote to conquer division. A Peoples Vote so we can lead again in Europe.

[1] THESE are the times that try men’s souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands by it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph.

Brexit and Aviation 51

On Friday last, we sat on the ground in Duesseldorf. Having boarded BA945 ahead of time, we sat waiting for the instruction to go. We sat on the ground for an hour given the high winds that battered London Heathrow. That was our intended destination. As a passenger, this was frustrating, but I know it’s a safe way of managing the large volumes of European air traffic.

Without a doubt, Brexit or no Brexit we have a far from perfect air transport systems in Europe. Capacity is limited by the dated infrastructure we have in place. Safety is assured by managing the system as a cooperative effort. London Heathrow is a challenge given that such large numbers of international aircraft movements take place at a two-runway hub airport.

Since 2011, the European Union has had a Network Manager[1]. This is what was previously called the Central Flow Management Unit (CFMU) based at EUROCONTROL[2] in Brussels. The Network Manager Operations Centre is a vital part of Europe’s Air Traffic Management (ATM) system. If you want to peek at what’s happening there’s a public portal showing the current state of the system[3].

In some respects, Summer 2018 pushed the European aviation system to its limits and Summer 2019 promises to present even more challenges. I cannot conceive of any situation where European ATM will not be of interest to the UK. Indeed, there’s no indication of the withdrawal of the UK from EUROCONTROL. Nice as this might sound, Brexit is going to have the impact of pulling the UK out of the major decision-making that that takes place within Europe.

Today, EU regulations determine operations, safety regulation and performance monitoring. If Brexit goes ahead, the UK will no longer have a leading influence over these EU regulations. People are starting to plan for how to manage the Summer of 2019. You might want to think seriously about your holiday choices next year. We all know what its like to be stranded at airports living out long delays.

News has come in on a matter of great interest about the almost mythical Article 50. The European Court (ECJ) has sided with petitioners both *against* the European Council/Commission and *against* the UK government. The UK is free to unilaterally revoke the notification of its intention to withdraw from the EU – Case C-621/18 Wightman #Brexit[4].

This does open an option to the UK. With such deadlock amongst the politicians and a big campaign to bring about a #PeoplesVote that would seem the wise course of action to take.

[1] COMMISSION REGULATION (EU) No 677/2011 of 7 July 2011 laying down detailed rules for the implementation of air traffic management (ATM) network functions and amending Regulation (EU) No 691/2010.

[2] The European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL)

[3] https://www.public.nm.eurocontrol.int/PUBPORTAL/gateway/spec/index.html

[4] https://twitter.com/EUCourtPress/status/1072039706123210752?s=20

Brexit and Aviation 50

Just back from 4-days in Cologne. It’s one of the best times of the year to be in the city. The Christmas Markets are in full swing. As we flew out of Heathrow the debate on the UK Parliamentary vote was running on. As we flew back into Heathrow the same debate was going on with the same predicable ups and downs. It’s a wonder that anything new can be found to be said. Like a special industry to keep the media on its toes maybe perpetual motion isn’t an impossibility.

There will be a rally in London on Parliament Square this coming Tuesday, 11th to coincide with the Brexit vote. The signs are that the vote will be lost. Mrs May’s deal will fall. From that moment on all becomes unpredictable although there are many who would tell you they know what will happen.

To concentrate minds 29 March gets ever nearer. Action to rescind Article 50 could happen but who would make it happen? A cliff edge Brexit, without a deal could happen but who would allow it? Both the Economist and the Times leaders back a People’s Vote. With the UK Parliament completely deadlocked the best option would be to put the question back to the people.

The Brexit Monopoly Board is full of traps. Every shake of the dice is a risky manoeuvre. There’s no get out of jail free card. Yes, the cards can change your fortune, but a lot of luck is needed.

My observations from having a few days in Cologne are again full of mixed messages. On the one hand, the almighty wheels of business as usual continue to turn. On the other hand, signs of disaffection and disconnection are slowly growing. Numerous Brits I’ve worked with over the years now have more than one passport. A few are planning to return to the UK. Most have given-up on hoping the whole Brexit fiasco will go away.

Domestic British obsessions do catch the news in Germany. Like a Shakespearean tragedy unfolding in slow time but much as a Carnival side show unrelated to real events. Yes, we all need each other in Europe but not so much as to total indulge one group or another.

Friday was International Civil Aviation Day. Connecting people across the global. Helping people move freely is one way to make a better world. Aviation is a great example of successful human cooperation and effective global partnership. The UK is home to many aerospace companies and leading research organisations. The UK needs a place in Europe and a place in the world NOT one or the other. A vague political declaration is no substitute for the Membership of the EU we (UK) has now.

I wonder what next Tuesday will bring for the UK?

If you are looking for light relief from the unending speculation and continuous news cycle, listen to the Dead Ringers Christmas Special on BBC Radio 4[1].

[1] https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b007gd85

Brexit and Aviation 49

One of the challenges with stopping Brexit is the oil tanker effect. The machinery of the UK Government has been pointed in one direction for a couple of years. Grinding away, preparing the steps, being buffeted left and right but heading in one direction – towards 29 March 2019.

What this has meant has changed numerous times as the machinations of the Conservative Party have shaped policy. The ludicrous snap General Election didn’t help one little bit. It took a divided nation and made it a more divided nation. So much for the Prime Minister’s judgement. Here we are in December 2018, just about ready for another pivotal moment on the rocky road.

The latest UK Government Minister to resign is Sam Gyimah @SamGyimah. He’s the MP for East Surrey and local to me. He has declared he will vote against the Government’s EU Withdrawal Agreement. Having resigned as the Universities, Science, Research and Innovation Minister it will be interesting to see what his next moves are. His resignation statement is worth a read[1].

Gyimah’s reasoning starts with the negotiations over Galileo, the EU’s Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS). Back in May this year, the UK Government stated its unwavering commitment to European security meaning it should be able to continue to fully participate in #Galileo now and in the future. The reality has become that the UK Government pulled out of negotiations on this key subject. A failure.

Building a uniquely UK GNSS will be expensive. It will take 20 years and have a big annual cost to keep it working. All for what?

Back to the oil tanker that needs turning around, or at least stopping before it hits the rocks. This analogy has a lot of millage in it given that the Brexit result could look much like a giant oil spill. Damaging to all involved. Costing a fortune to clean-up. Living in the memory for a long time.

About UK Statutory Instruments (SIs), the draft Aviation Safety (Amendment etc.) (EU Exit) Regulations 2019 has been laid before the UK Parliament[2]. This SI uses powers in the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 to correct “deficiencies” in derived aviation safety legislation coming from the act of withdrawal. The intention is here to ensure that the UK legal framework on aviation safety continues to function after the March exit day in the event of a No-Deal[3]. This is a lot of work coming from the UK Department of Transport. To nationalise legislation, in many places the legal text is changed by ignoring: “at both Union level and national level”.

Gyimah is saying that post-Brexit: the UK will end up worse off, transformed from rule makers into rule takers. I think he’s right. It’s time to turn the oil tanker around.

[1] https://www.facebook.com/204388219715107/posts/1170464863107433/

[2] http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukdsi/2019/9780111175101/contents

[3] http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukdsi/2019/9780111175101/pdfs/ukdsiem_9780111175101_en.pdf

Brexit and Aviation 48

The day has come. After many months, a draft agreement and political declaration are in the hands of the UK and EU. The term “deal” is being used to sum it all up. That might not be the best word considering that so much remains on a wish-list, but that word has come into common usage.

In the run-up to the UK’s exit from the EU on 29 March 2019, if it happens, there’s no end of work that must still be completed. There’s no doubt that if the “deal” is agreed there’s an enormous amount of Parliamentary work to be done passing the Statutory Instruments[1] needed to make it work in law.

Aviation needs a “modern stable regulatory framework” to support growth, says Henrik Hololei, Director General for Mobility & Transport, European Commission. Whichever side of the on-going arguments you stand this remains a sound statement. The future of aviation in the EU and its neighbouring countries, including the UK will be one of the major files handed over to the next Commission.

2019 is election year for the EU. We can expect a whole new European Parliament and Commission to be up and running as that year matures. The Brexit fall-out may land in new and different hands by the end of 2019. The overall topics for debate and political climate may have changed significantly durring Romania’s Presidency of the Council of the EU.

Maintaining a stable regulatory framework that allows air transport to flourish in the UK and EU may yet meet even more challenges that just at this moment. Turning the wish for a: Comprehensive Air Transport Agreement, covering market access and investment and aviation safety into reality has a long way to go. We must hope that, subject to all this turmoil that no one drops the ball. Aviation safety is far too valuable to be jeopardised by endless politically shenanigans.

There’s the expectation that the microsite[2] of the UK CAA will to be updated with information for the aviation and aerospace industries as the situation develops.

[1] https://www.hansardsociety.org.uk/blog/westminster-lens-brexit-statutory-instruments-dashboard

[2] https://info.caa.co.uk/euexit/

Brexit and Aviation 47

The “Draft Agreement on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from the European Union and the European Atomic Energy Community,” dated 14 November 2018 is now published.

Aviation gets one mention in the draft agreement “International Civil Aviation Organisation standards related to biometric identification.” In relation to Agencies, such as EASA the draft agreement says: “The institutions, bodies, offices and agencies of the Union shall continue to be competent for administrative procedures which were initiated before the end of the transition period …”.

So, it’s business as usual until the end of the proposed transition period. Naturally, that depends upon the draft agreement being passed into law. In fact, there are three options that are the most likely. One: enact this withdrawal agreement, two: reject the agreement and abandon Brexit or three: reject the agreement and crash out.

The first two options are practical and viable but the third is an utter catastrophe for all parties. There are just two ways to prevent disruption and to provide legal certainty to air transport and aerospace, at least for the short-term.

The hard fought, detailed, lengthy and binding Withdrawal Agreement only addresses the next few years. To accompany the agreement there is a political declaration on future EU-UK relations. In that document there is a high-level commitment to regulatory cooperation. There is a wish for a: Comprehensive Air Transport Agreement, covering market access and investment, aviation safety and security, Air Traffic Management and provisions to ensure open and fair competition.

Unfortunately, of all the debate and amassed documentation there isn’t much more than that simple statement. In other words, there’s some indication of the direction of travel but nothing on what that might that mean for the next decade. Today, the best deal remains the one the UK has as an EU Member State.

It’s true, that the EU-UK political declaration may still be expanded in the next few days. The political declaration could grow to 20 pages but that hangs in the balance. Contrast that with the over 500 pages of the Withdrawal Argreement. It seems odd that it has taken well over 2-years to get to this point.

In parallel, the European Commission is working with its Agencies. EASA is processing applications from UK organisations in preparation for the time when the UK will not be a Member State. In addition, it’s doing preparations for the worst-case scenario – No Deal

Clearly, based on the domestic political reaction, there is no guarantee what-so-ever the UK will ratify the Withdrawal Agreement by 29 March 2019. Parliament remains divided. Only a committed gambler would predict which way events will turn next.

Brexit and Aviation 46

It’s reported that, International Airlines Group (IAG), the owner of British Airways (BA), has approached the Spanish Government for help over the possibility of a No-Deal Brexit. They still seem confident that the EU and the UK will put an agreement in place that allows flights to continue even in a No Deal situation. That said, current rules mean the company must be over half EU owned and controlled to be considered “European”.

Today, IAG is the parent company of Aer Lingus, BA, Iberia and Vueling. It’s a Spanish registered company with shares traded on the London Stock Exchange and Spanish Stock Exchanges. Today, the corporate Head Quarters for IAG is in the UK. In Brexit and Aviation 23, I raised these issues but considering the airlines operating certificates rather than the ownership issue. If IAG are to comply with the EU ownership rules then, essentially it becomes a Spanish company. Now, I wonder if the UK Brexiters had that in mind in 2016?

Ownership arrangements do get complicated. For example, 25% of London Heathrow airport is owned by Ferrovial, S.A., a Spanish multinational company. London Gatwick airport is owned and managed by Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP) and a consortium of its co-investors. So, I’m guessing that Brexiters don’t concern themselves too much with ownership and control. It’s just not on their radar.

This is not a subject to ignore because despite liberalisation there are precise rules on ownership and control within EU legislation. These are important in the EU but not so much as a matter of regional protectionism as to ensure that there’s a level playing field for fair competition between companies.

Last week, the European Air Law Association (EALA) held their annual conference in Brussels. The EALA was created 30 years ago when the supranational European institutions, including the European Commission and the European Parliament, started to take policy and legal action in the field of air transport.

This year, their guest speaker was Director-General for Mobility and Transport, DG MOVE, Mr Henrik Hololei. He confirmed that in respect of Brexit, that no detailed negotiations had taken place between the EU and the UK on air services and they will not occur until there is an agreement on the Withdrawal Arrangements. Hololei noted that in the most extreme No Deal scenario, on the first day of Brexit there would be no flights between EU and UK. This is a possibility depending on how the negotiations proceed.

In the No Deal circumstances, the UK Government maybe confident that it would be able to negotiate new, or reinstate old bilateral agreements with EU Member States. The first of these might be possible, with good will on all sides but the second is just not possible.

The critical date of 29 March 2019 is approaching fast. Jo Johnson has resigned as a Transport Minister, saying the country is: “barrelling towards an incoherent Brexit” and calling for another referendum. Crunch time is here.

Brexit and Aviation 45

Ah the persistent and unpredictable ups and downs of Brexit. One political lesson to be learned from this dreadful mess is that a powerful slogan pitched at an opportune moment on fertile ground can have a big impact. “Take back control” means a hundred and one things to millions of people nevertheless those three words resonated on 23^rd June 2016. In Europe, we have spent 40 years taking down barriers. This move has dramatically increased opportunity and prosperity for the majority but created an insecurity amongst some groups. Control to them ment putting barriers back up.

In aviation, we recently celebrated 25 years of European liberalisation. It’s only because of open markets that we now have one billion passengers flying. We have high growth in a mature market which is globally unusual. If we return to nationalism dominating ownership and control of organisations it’s inevitable prices will rise, and growth will be impaired. Protectionism is a false God.

There’s no doubt that Europe has major infrastructure challenges. The capacity and quality of our transport systems is inadequate. In European aviation there’s strong common interests. Lines on the map may work on the ground but in the air the current arrangements make little sense. To solve these problems closer ties are needed not looser ones. Closer ties are needed if we are to continue to prosper from international tourism. In 2017, Europe remained the top visited region with more than 671 million tourist arrivals.

Close cooperation in safety and security essential. Facing these critical challenges alone is not viable. The only way to take control and have a real influence on the future is to cooperate. One of the elements of European cooperation that is assumed to continue regardless of Brexit is the European Union’s Single European Sky (SES) programme. Functional Airspace Blocks (FABs)[1] are a key tool of the EU’s SES programme, aiming to help reduce the fragmentation of air navigation services. The UK/Ireland FAB aims to contribute to meeting key performance targets on safety, cost efficiency, capacity/delay and the environment. Surely that stays?

The noisy voices that say the UK Government should sever all ties with the EU maybe don’t realise how that suggestion is extremely foolish. Let’s hope the instability caused but the Brexit will be viewed in 25 years’ time as a temporary phenomenon.

[1] https://www.ukirelandfab.eu/about/

Brexit and Aviation 44

One of the great flaws of the UK’s Brexit is that it doesn’t seem to have a direction, if you put aside relentless uncertainty, that is. What I mean is that there’s no high-level strategy that has been articulated by anyone with the power to implement it. The results of #Brexit might just as likely be Labour’s socialist utopia as it might be a version of Conservatives for Trump. Or even, more liklely a messy mish mash of lurching from political left to right in a purely reactive manner.

Often the UK has struggled with need to have a long-term vision. One aspect of membership of the European Union (EU) has been that it has provided stability and a general sense of direction. That has been a good compensation for the volatility of the day-to-day that keeps the media full of political stories in the UK.

That stability has been particularly true for Aviation and Aeronautics in Europe. These are businesses that need a long-term strategy because of the commitment and time it takes to go from research innovation to in-service maturity of a product. To succeed, civil aviation needs rules and regulations that are consistent, internationally compatible and that work.

On 5^th December, there’s an #EU Aeronautics Conference[1] taking place at the European Parliament @Europarl_EN. One of the speakers will be Tom Enders, the outgoing Chief Executive Officer (CEO)[2] of @Airbus. It certainly will be fascinating to hear of his reflections from his time in office. This annual conference has been initiated by the European Parliament’s Sky and Space Intergroup (SSI)[3]. It attracts high-level decision-makers from the EU Institutions including the Parliament, the Commission and the Council and the EU Agencies. This year is fine, but I’m left wondering what the UK will do in future years if Brexit goes ahead.

There’s no doubt that innovation and investment are key part of any aviation strategy. Being at the table when such subjects are being discussed is surely a matter of some importance. I can’t think for one moment that the UK will not be interested in competitiveness, a level playing field, and sustainable and greener aviation. Not only that but the unstoppable drive of digitization will impact everyone in the air transport system. There’s also the issue of the need to maintain a skilled workforce and the shortages that limit development. None of these big issues are for one Country alone. In fact, no one Country alone can address them effectively and be confident of success.

It would be better if Brexit didn’t happen but if it goes ahead then the imperative must be to keep these important relationships working for the benefit of all Europeans. We will not have to wait much longer to know what deal maybe proposed but whatever it is it will not be as good as what we have now.

[1] https://euaeronauticsconference.eu/

[2] https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-releases/en/2018/10/airbus-board-of-directors-selects-guillaume-faury-future-chief-e.html

[3] http://www.europarl.europa.eu/pdf/intergroupes/VIII_LEG_19_Sky_and_Space_20160608.pdf