Category: Travel

Free to move

Good old BBC. Let’s try and be nice to the British political extremes. All in hope of getting that reporter’s gem. The got’y moment. The “ah, so you don’t really mean it” moment that can get nailed on a website or flamed out on social media. The cosy feeling that a truth is revealed.

There’s one social good that the BBC delivered this morning on my radio. I was reminded, over breakfast that the Reform Party is just a home for renegade Conservatives. Nothing, more or less. The part of the former Conservative Party who thought Thatcherism was a bit soft.

They tout polices that have not weathered the storm. Failed, time and time again. Like downed rotten trees in a high wind. Add to that a fantasy series of promises about being more efficient and the darkness of the rabbit hole is all consuming. However much they talk over questioners, the bare bones of tickle down economics remain at their core. Give more money to those who already have it and mystically everyone will benefit. Former Prime Minister Liz Truss on overdrive. It would be deeply satisfying to see the Reform Party crumble. However, I fear that’s not going to happen as long as wealthy people keep throwing money at this political group.

This week is one where a shift in political momentum could go horribly wrong. For the last few weeks, the governing party has been slowly climbing up the opinion polls. Some say, at last the Labour party is being the Labour party. Others say that a massive dose of realpolitik is a betrayal of the progressive creed. As usual such rumbling debates are alive and well.

On the table is talk of “freedom of movement.” I wish it weren’t expressed in that way. Mainly because it’s not entirely what those three words say it is. It’s an oversimplification.

From my point of view, it’s essential to apply some pragmatism to the debate about who comes and goes from this country and why. One thing is absolutely clear; Brexit has made the situation much worse. Over the last decade, control of this country’s borders has become a rolling nightmare. Endless newspaper column inches of negativity.

As Europeans we should have a degree of freedom to move. A right to mobility is real. To live, work or retire in each other’s countries. There are conditions attached. I remember having to register in the German city of my residence. Freedom doesn’t come without bureaucracy.

There’s a strong national interest in getting the whole European economy moving. The notion that our island status affords a separation that means we are unaffected by others is utter nonsense. In fact, in the current economic circumstances this country could occupy a major leadership role in Europe.

The world of politics and diplomacy are intertwined. The difficulty is that this fact is difficult to translate into everyday public sentiment. Our eyes are focused on the big issues, and the cost of living is one of the biggest. So, making arguments for “freedom of movement” must come with attachments. Again clearly, Brexit did not make goods in the shops more affordable. That lie has been sunk.

To maintain stability in a complex world, countries need to work together. For us, the best chance of that happening is with our neighbours.

I have discovered an unfamiliar word. Gefühlspolitik – being driven by emotion, is the road to endless disappointments. Churning over the same old ground, being fooled by snake oil salesmen and Machiavellian masters.

Patch?

Hobbyists built it. So, how come billions are invested by the huge corporations that use it? Only a fraction of their resource was used to create it in the first place. The INTERNET is as much a wonder of the world as the pyramids. I don’t say that lightly. Today’s level of interconnection, intercommunication and interaction across the whole globe was merely speculated about 50-years ago. In historic terms that’s the blink of an eyelid.

Where we are now it’s impossible to imagine a future without the facilities that are at my fingertips. Tap out recognisable words and they can go anywhere, everywhere, or nowhere.

[That part is poor. Keyboards are where my fingertips connect with the world. Surely there will come a better way in the not-too-distant future? Evolution didn’t make us this way.]

Looking at some other major advances of civilisations, they came about in separate ways.

Long distant roads were originally military assets. Getting legions of troops from one place to another in a sprawling empire. Dominating the landscape. Reinforcing even the most remote outpost. Crossing a great distance on land has moved through several phases, waterways gave way to railways and they back to roads, as a primary means of transportation.

The telegraph was more, what I might call, can do technology. Experimentalists like Marconi put two and two together to make five. Scientific investigation provided the possibilities. He, and his like, were entrepreneurs. They saw the piece parts of technology as a business opportunity.

Aviation was more of an evolutionary advancement. A dream that the ancients held and wrote about. Slowly down the centuries theories and experimentation came together until powered flight became viable. Then decade after decade, more technical possibilities were exploited. Warfare, enterprise and adventurers have driven continuous development.

The INTERNET wasn’t seen as a commercial opportunity at its inception. It was a put together simply as a means for scientists to share their work. Maybe more than hobbyists doing the work but technicians with no master plan for world domination. They certainly were not Bond villains.

That is one possible one reason for the vulnerabilities inherent in our global electronic infrastructure. This week, the implications of those intrinsic vulnerabilities are becoming all too apparent. Embedded code that only a few experts take any notice of, that is until something bad happens. Their vital work never especially celebrated or significantly rewarded.

I don’t say it will ever happen but what if there was a practical plan for an INTERNET-2. A whole new set of protocols? An attempt to build-in integrity, expandability, and security from day one. Learning from experience.

The word “patch” is an indication of how crazy the current situation remains. It’s like that silly word “glitch.” Even the word “junk” seems quite inadequate if a crook “hacks” someone’s private account. These words make serious issues seem like minor inconveniences. Distinguishing between annoyances and harmful situations has become muddy waters.

Why is this the case? Is this the only way to communicate what’s going on.

I think it goes back to simple utility. Is the INTERNET, in its current form, so incredibly useful that society can tolerate any number of “inconveniences.” I wonder. Or will the story be like the waterways and the railways. Neither will ever go away but one will dramatically improve on the other. Push past the other. Thus, civilisation advances.

What’s next?

Brexit hasn’t gone away. Hushing up the debate doesn’t solve a problem. It makes it worse. Trying to run a marathon whilst carrying a weighty load of baggage on our backs is never going to get easier. Knowing that those weights can only get heavier makes it even worse.

If I remember rightly, which I do, those promoting this failed enterprise talked of a Singapore-on-Thames[1] like Britain that would stroll the world like a colossus. Free of entanglement with our neighbours. We’d be able to command cheap goods in the shops for all. Costs would go down and standards of living would go up. A mighty English lion would roar, and the rest of the world would tremble. The deception was criminal. It still is. What’s been delivered is the exact opposite. It’ tragic.

Now, we have a Prime Minister (PM) who must go out of his way to defend the Union. The United Kingdom (UK). Making passionate speeches about the world his parents inhabited. Kindling nostalgic emotions to emphasis the government’s commitment to holding our Union together.

If the Brexit vote was motivated by a public concern over immigration and freedom of movement, then what the UK has as a result is significantly worse than what we had during our membership of the European Union (EU). I know these subjects remain of great concern, but the direction of travel post-Brexit is 180 degrees from where we need to be.

Listening to industry in the UK amongst the issue that make them very unhappy, Brexit is never far from the top. The uncertainty and red tape that persists makes trading difficult. Finding, training, and retaining the skilled workforce they need has got harder. Costs keep rising as UK influence over world affairs weakens. Brexit is like a weighty millstone around our necks.

It would be nice to think that the advocates of Brexit have a solution to the problem that they caused. However, painful as it maybe, if you listen to them all they do is carp. Point the figure of blame. Then propose even more Brexity type ideas that mean digging an even bigger hole for us.

There’s hope. At least hope in rhetorical terms. This week, the PM has been floating a set of possibilities[2]. It’s characteristically vague. I don’t criticise him for the caution, given the volatility the political landscape and the financial boost his opponents have gained.

A decade ago, I continue to think that the Leavers did not win the Brexit vote. It was lost by the Remainers. The Leave campaign deployed their arguments with passion and marketing knowhow. Remainers, of which I was a guilty party, majored on logic and rational debate. Sticking to the facts. Sadly, being as attractive as an economics lecture by the gloomiest professor in town. Besuited business highbrows boring the pants off the public.

That’s the dilemma. We know, not only by facts, but now by experience that Brexit was a massive mistake. We also know that pure facts alone do not cut through however conclusive the arguments may be. Charts and statistics have their place only when they move the heart.

I hear this with industry people I talk to. It goes like this; surely the public can see that we need to reengage with Europe. Especially with the conflicts that are raging around the globe. Those words that – we are stronger together – have never been truer.

If there is another UK referendum soon, then the case for being an EU member must be an enthusiastic and visibly patriotic one. No castigating former Leave voters. Such a national campaign must be forward looking, positive and inspiring. An emotional anthem to unite us around the cause. A real world approach to the real world.

[1] https://www.culs.org.uk/per-incuriam/brexit-could-singapore-on-thames-become-reality

[2] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cmlyewr0lnj3o

Travel Dilemma

A dilemma. Travel is a unique way of enhancing life’s experience. Travel inevitably has an environmental cost. It’s a predicament that’s impossible to avoid. I could look at this as a balance of pros and cons. That’s to seek a reason to balance the scales. It’s what I’m inclined to do. A highly rational way of viewing a dilemma.

This doesn’t work for everyone. Belief comes into the equation. For those who see the world on a knifes edge, tittering on the brink of environmental disaster, any argument about travel is shaped by trepidation. People can get quite puritanical about travel’s burdens.

Equally, there’s a group of people who fit in the “burn baby burn” camp. Those who will not give a tinker’s cuss about global environmental arguments. That’s a bit disingenuous. There’s always the belief that God’s plan is mysterious and these matters are not in our hands.

There’s a third category. I’ve met a few who fit this one. It’s to espouse great concern about green issues and then to act in a manner that’s inconsistent with that belief. Hypocrisy is nothing new. It’s a permanent part of the human condition.

Here, I’m only going down the rational rabbit hole. It’s to harbour genuine concern for the environment at the same time as understanding the power of travel to open minds and create world where we better understand each other.

To travel or not, that is the question. Whether it be nobler to stay at home or to suffer the hassle and crammed seats of a cheap flight, for the excitement of visiting an unfamiliar place. I’ll start by putting my conclusion up-front. It’s nobler to travel.

The pros and cons of staying at home or moving in familiar territory. Restricted circles.

On the upside then it’s possible to say with a clear conscious that you have done your bit to try and minimise the environmental impact of travel. You can stand at the bar in the local pub and lambast those who you think are ruining the planet.

On the downside, not everyone will appreciate how virtuous you claim to be. Probably citing some other environmental impact. Like your gas boiler, lack of recycling or guzzling SUV.

The pros and cons of trains, planes, and automobiles, exploring new territory. Global curiosity.

On the upside then it’s likely you will not be stuck for conversation. Certainly, you’ll be carrying home the knowledge of different cultures and how others live. In fact, the experience can lead to a better appreciation of how others tackle environmental challenges.

On the downside, a conscientious traveller must account for their CO2 emissions or, at least, have mind to compensate for them in some way. Time to plant trees.

I’ve framed this piece in terms of the substance of a personal decision. That’s not the biggest factor at play. The global growth in travel is the total of the behaviour of people from all levels of society, in a mass of different situations. One element is clear. As the economic circumstances of people improves so the propensity to wish to travel increases. I’ve not lined up a convincing graph to show this relationship. However, it’s hard to argue against it. As an example, the curve for global air travel keeps going up.

So, we live with a dilemma. Making travel more accessible at the same time as minimising the cumulative costs. A familiar dilemma. One that’s inherent in much that we do. A perpetual challenge.

Future of Aviation: Enhancing Safety and Resilience

The aim is clear. A safe, secure, sustainable and resilient international aviation system. I’d add to that list an ambition to continuously improve.

And that’s in the face of the challenge that was recognised 30-years ago. With an aviation system that knows how to archives a high level of safety, even incremental improvement is challenging. Factor in projected air traffic growth that’s unabating. What we know is that that continuously improving the global accident rate requires active interventions. 

Since here I can only highlight the key priorities, I’ll choose three aspects of active intervention. Back to what I said earlier in my talk. Aviation is still climbing a maturity ladder. Digitisation has facilitated a growth in proactive work. Initiatives and plans identify actions aimed at solving known aviation safety problems. But the next step remains some way off. It’s that ability to anticipate safety problems before they occur. To predict.

We have the notion of safety intelligence. There are Big Data projects that are gathering large quantities of aviation safety data. Today, what might be called prognostics continues to depend on expert judgement. That’s not negative, as such. In fact, that augmented by objective and trustworthy safety intelligence is a route to the next step in maturity.

In my view, here’s the three categories that must be addressed now and, in the next decade.

  • One is a foundation stone of aviation safety work. It’s the capability and will to react in a timely manner to events. Not just accidents and serious incidents but any event that elevates aviation safety risks above acceptable levels.

Top operational risk that are likely to need immediate actions are those involving loss of control and those concerning runway incidents.

To take timely corrective action the results of investigation need to be readily available. As pointed out by the industry, across the globe, there’s much scope for improvement here. Timeliness matters.

  • My next category is that of systemic risks. System wide safety risks. People, organisations, processes, procedures, the human factor and human performance issues.

Much is being done to ensure the effective implementation of safety management systems (SMS). The four pillars of SMS have proven to work – safety policy, risk management, safety assurance and safety promotion.

The acceptance, elimination or mitigation of risks is not an act that begins on one day and stops on the next. Digitation can help but there’s always the dangers of the needle in a haystack or even problems sitting in plain sight.

What’s often weak is the communication of what’s discovered. Believable, understandable straightforward communication to decision makers is vital.

  • Thirdly, what’s ahead of us is an order of magnitude more complex than what’s gone before. And a rate of change that mindboggling.

I’m calling this emerging aviation safety risks. The question arises; are we ready for advanced leaps in technology? Hydrogen, hybrid propulsion, machine learning, quantum computing, complex airspace networks and robotics. Humans as executive manager whilst retaining control only in emergencies.

It’s a famous quote; data is the new oil. We are ushering in extremely large and complex datasets that will be essential to the workings of automated and autonomous systems. Could data be the new quicksand? This is a huge issue in dense airspace where crewed and uncrewed aircraft must share the airspace.

Another emerging aviation safety risks, that industry and regulators are starting to address is the fact that safety and security have become inseparable. In the past, these disciplines were addressed as silos. That’s no longer viable.

Another emerging aviation safety risk is that of the workforce. Aviation has attracted dedicated professionals who acquire experience and train to a high level of competence. A safety culture has been embedded. In this respect the fundamentals of aviation safety remain constant.

The rapid growth of technology is a two-edged sword. Now, there are many opportunities for future generations, but aviation may not be at the top of the list of choices, as it has been. There’s a serious aviation safety risk if serious investments are not made, people are not motivated and able to gain the competencies needed by a rapidly changing industry.

To sum up. Everything I’ve spoken of can only be addressed in partnerships. In the past, the aviation industry and its regulators have proven themselves to be imaginative, resilient and forward looking.

The challenges ahead, dare I say, are even greater. Levels of integration, interdependency and rapid technology adoption are off the charts. Yet, I believe we can continually improve global aviation safety. We can step up.

POST: Farnborough International Air Show 2026. 20-24 July 2026.

Current State of Aviation Safety: Data-Driven

The present day. Today. There will be Press Releases galore at this air show. I expect ambitious and upbeat predictions. More orders. More growth. More developing markets. Demands for more skilled people, more performance, more pressure for the early adoption of rapidly changing technologies.

My subject is safety. Where are we with aviation safety in the present day? There’s a sound legacy. Afterall aviation has a long tail. What we have now, and if I look at the Farnborough Airshow catalogue of ten years ago[1], is digitisation. The ambition to be data-driven. A continuing drive to exploit data of all kinds. Extracting information from ever increasing sources in aviation.

This desire for actionable safety intelligence is not new. On my desk I have a coaster celebrating the UK CAA’s MOR Scheme[2]. That’s been alive for 50 years (1976-2026). Occurrence data has been, and is being, used to construct all sorts of safety performance indicators. These indicators can be useful but it’s not always so. They are fuel for safety management systems.

I used the word “actionable” with purpose. Today, making the results of safety data analysis useable by front-line actors and responsible managers has been a challenge we wrestle. I’ve often heard it said – that’s great but what do I do about it? Too many “greens” on a chart and complacency can set in. Too many “reds” and everyone goes into panic mode.

I have been fortunate to work with a number of safety initiative. One called the Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) in the US. To match its work, on this continent, I set up a European version; ECAST in 2006. The focus was on data-drive analysis. There’re safety teams for Rotorcraft and General Aviation too.

These safety initiatives came about a reactive way. Reporting in 1997, the Gore Commission, was a reaction to dilemmas that is still with us. What to do in the wake of catastrophic accidents. And more pertinent to this talk; what to do when the global accident rate curve looks flat at the same time as predictions are for a significant growth in global air traffic. Reading this report now, the predictions were horrifying. Predictions of one large aeroplane fatal accident every week by now. Luckily, commercial air transport didn’t suffer that fate.

I should NOT say “luckily”. Current safety performance is down to an enormous amount of work done by thousands of aviation professionals over a sustained period. Not only this but shocks, whether they be financial crisis, volcanic eruptions or global pandemics, have tested this industry severely.

Taking on board what was learned over the decades, safety management has developed and matured. Incorporated in aviation’s safety regulatory framework, it’s now practiced across the whole industry. Almost. We don’t just react. We now have Safety Plans. Lists of actionable tasks aimed at continuous safety improvement. On the scale mentioned earlier – we are proactive.

Let me stop. This is not a utopia. I’d say at least half the global aviation industry is struggling with the need to be proactive. So, the road we are travelling on remains a long one. We don’t just need the capability to do better; we need to maintain the will to do better.

[1] 50th Farnborough Air Show in 2016.

[2] https://www.caa.co.uk/about-us/make-a-report-or-complaint/report-something/mor/occurrence-reporting/

The Evolution of Aviation Safety: A Historical Overview

A quick tour of the history of aviation safety. In a couple of minutes.

As powered aircraft took to the skies it quickly became apparent that, of all the means of transport, aviation was less forgiving than others. Moving at speed in four dimensions, with the necessity to take-off and land safely, has inherent risks. By no means does this mean that flying is an dangerous activity. What it does necessitate is an exercise of sound engineering, preparation, and proficiency. When these are missing, and in cases of misfortune, accidents and serious incidents happen.

In the days between the world wars, aviation moved from the military and a circus-like amusement to a viable means of public transport. Progressively, more passengers had the opportunity to experience the wonders of flight.

Today, it’s not the early days of flight I want to focus on, but we do owe the engineers and aviators of that time a great debt. Much was learned as aeronautics matured. Since the end of the second world war the production, promotion and application of standards has embedded what had been learned. This has established the way that international civil aviation works.

One simple expression of the stages we’ve been through is Prof Patrick Hudson’s[1] model. This model describes five distinct levels of cultural maturity. The steps are pathological, reactive, calculative, proactive and generative.

This model sits alongside steps in the development of technology that have been a hallmark of aviation. Different categorisations exist. AIRBUS[2] has one that’s easily understood in terms of generations of civil aircraft.

First are the “classics” of the 1950s and 60s. Next, the second generation starts down the road of more electronics. More safety critical systems. Third generation starts flying in the early 1980s when automation becomes the norm (early fly-by-wire, glass cockpits, flight management systems). The fourth generation introduces safety systems, which address the major causes of fatal accidents, namely Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT) and Loss Of Control In-Flight (LOC-I). That’s the early 1990s. When I made that move from industry (design and production) to an aviation safety regulator.

Now, I’d say we are well into fifth generation aircraft, with composite structures and integrated modular avionics. In fact, we are well into speculation about what the sixth generation may look like. Machine learning, single pilot operations, hybrid powerplants, aircraft as a node on a network.

Because aviation is a learning industry, and a conservative one, the expectation is of progressive improvement in maturity throughout the aviation system and innovative technology applied to enhance safety.

This is not to say that the potential for error, missteps and recklessness don’t exist. They do. I expect continuity in a way that takes full advantage of advanced methods without scarifying the legacy of an astonishing good global aviation safety achievement.

Later, to cover a lot of ground in a short time, I’m going to condense all the above into three distinct categories. But before that, I’ll talk about the present and a vision of the future.

POST: UK Farnborough Air Show on Thursday 23rd July 2026. Time: 13:00-13:15 BST. Location:  Hall 3 Stage. Session title Where Next for Aviation Safety?

[1] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0925753507000227?via%3Dihub

[2] https://d10x.airbus.com/generation-of-jets/

Seasonal Changes

When summer is at its peak, winter is easily forgotten. The reverse is true too. When winter is at its peak summer is a million years away. That’s the experience we have here on the British Isles.

So, it is to live on a spinning planet with an incline. That variation in seasons is the clock by which we live. The slowly shifting path of the Sun as it appears to move with the seasons. Of course, the Sun doesn’t move relative to the Earth. It’s our planet’s inclined rotation that makes the difference. How that came about we will never know beyond some good theories.

I might say something that an expert will say is nonsense. Can you imagine Stonehenge being bult in a people who live on the Equator? A place where the Sun spends much of its time high in the sky. At our Northern latitude, its movements maybe more significant than any other fact.

I wonder if seasonal variations and their impact go wider than dictating the weather? The British Isles is a pace where we are attuned to variations. Rarely extreme variations.

The sentence I started with alludes to an almost schizophrenic attitude to wide ranging variations. Normal would be a summer-winter cycle between say; plus 25 and minus 5 on the Celsius scale. Going outside those moderate thermal bounds causes a lot of heads scratching and newspaper column inches.

Britan’s story is a full one. Look deeply and so much is seasonally dependent. Even wars were shaped by the passing of the seasons. Yet, overall, much is built assuming moderation. It’s one reason air-conditioning is a rarity in a domestic setting. Structures are more designed to keep the wind and rain out than other considerations.

Now, we are experiencing unusual heat. Records are falling by the wayside. Once lush green lawns are looking like brown dirt, concrete hard, parking spaces. That is unless their owners sprinkle oceans of water over them on a regular basis.

Here’s the odd bit. It’s more socially acceptable to save a lawn than it is to own an air conditioner. True, portable air conditioners and fans are flying of the shelves. However, the general attitude is that these are to be used in exceptional conditions. They will be returned to a corner of a garage, to gather dust, after just a few days use. Thus, considered to be a luxury.

A hosepipe doesn’t fit into this category. Commonplace. Certainly, no luxury. Watering equipment of infinite variety is prominently placed in every DIY store. When it happens, a hosepipe ban feels like an afront to personal freedom.

Our habits and behaviours are conditioned by an experience of decades of relative moderation. The idea of building houses with shutters or generous ventilation still fit the bill as being usual. Something done in other, hotter countries.

Our reaction to climate change is fascinating. Hardly surprising in that the normal human reaction to change should tell us a lot. A fair degree of denial is nothing unusual. Put aside those who react early, the inevitable inertia deep in our society takes its toll. Whatever attitude to the causes of climate change may prevail, adaptation is a wise course of action. That said, wisdom is often in short supply.

The builders of Stonehenge knew how to adapt to the seasons. Possibly taking note of their variations. Dare I suggest a modern henge as a symbol of our recognition of the need to adapt?

Traveling Through Time

My first trip to America goes back 45 years ago. Our PanAm flight departed London Heathrow on 25th August 1981. We were booked on a Fly / Drive package on our way to Seattle.

This was the country where Ronald Reagan had taken up the Presidency, earlier in the year. For nerds, like me, it was the start of a revolution that eventual touched us all. The IBM Personal Computer (IBM PC) was launched on the world in August 1981. It became a standards setter for everything that followed.

What was state of the art then is now described as “classic”. The PanAm Boeing 747 we flew on across the Atlantic was of the first generation of that massive passenger aircraft. Still, at the time, an object of wonder. My traveling companions and I were completely wide-eyed about America. There was definitely a feeling that we were leaving a depressed, rebellious, troubled country to visited one that was huge, just like the jumbo jet, full of adventure, optimism and possibilities. The old world to the new world.

The four of us had planned our trip meticulously. Sharing the driving, a couple of days here then a day there, constantly on the move from motel to motel. In the end we did over 6000 miles up and down the West Coast. Getting to know Interstate 5.

What of the America today in comparison with the Amecia of 45 years ago? For one, I don’t have to go far to find a Starbucks anymore. Coffee shops in Seattle were once special to that city, now there are everywhere. Then gambling was the specialisation of cities like Reno and Las Vegas. Now, the internet is festooned with gambling of every conceivable kind.

Those folk easily classified as the nerds of their time, started small businesses in Silicon Valley with an aim to change the world. Guess what, they did.

Some of the grandest, most awe-inspiring aspects of West Coast America haven’t changed. The immense landscape. Mount St Helens, The Rocky Mountains, Crater Lake, Death Valley, San Francisco Bay and even the freeway sprawl of Los Angeles.

There were lots of comedy sketches about Ronald Reagan and his background as an actor. Now, when listening to several of his well-crafted speeches, appealing presentation, and humour, the distance of time sheds a different light on him. The loss of professionalism that marks 2026 is a great shame. It doesn’t matter which side of the political divide.

Today we talk about the world being more dangerous than it has been in decades, at least a couple of decades. What we conveniently forget is that the Cold War was in full swing in 1981. Now, I live near Greenham Common. Back 45 years, that was a site for American nuclear missiles. The site of a legendary peace camp too. Maybe there are inevitable cycles in history. We are destined to repeat the mistakes of the past. Or more accurately old men are destined to repeat the mistakes of the past.

What have we learned? In politics, it does matter what you say. In business, innovation and optimism win out over caution and pragmatism. In conflict, nothing much changes.

In travel, wanderlust never dims.

Happy July 4th.

Will Andy Burnham Lead a New Era?

It’s not so unbelievable. With the volatility of politics in the 2020s, that a leadership role flips from one person to the next in the blink of an eye. The man tipped to run the country has won one constituency in his hometown. Now, lots of people envisage him in the biggest of jobs, sweeping aside the wows of recent years.

One view of this change is that the decades of past allegiances, that we almost took for granted, have now dissolved. The way we view others in our society has become far more complex.

British comedy is littered with these stereotypes. Comic strip characters. Property owning, upper middle class, broadsheet newspaper reader equates to a Conservative. Open toed saddle, tweed jacket owning teacher who goes on improving camping holidays, a Liberal. Football supporting, factory worker, from a generation of factory workers almost certainly a Labour supporter with Socialist friends. At the margines, long retired colonel who inherited a large countryside mansion and estate may even be a Fascist. These animated cartoon images persist. What’s different is that there are dwindling numbers of them in society at large.

Initialled AB, Andy Burnham, comes to us as a smiling face. Down with the people in a way Sir Keir Starmer found incredibly hard. AB has charm and a warm accent that suggest a relaxed demeaner. He talks with enough wriggle room for a wide swath of people to think that he’s on their side. A good skill to have to be successful in politics. As it is, what he stands for when push comes to shove isn’t so easy to discern.

In know the spelling is different but it’s out there in social media land. The fictional Birnam Wood, a forest near Dunsinane Hill in William Shakespeare’s Macbeth. A place of prediction.

[That was one of the texts our teachers chose for us in my school days. Maybe they imagined troubled times ahead. Or wanted to warn us of power’s potential corrupting effect].

Three witches appeared to assure Macbeth that he was a winner. Only seemingly impossible events would defeat him. The message was critic. Bit like the Oracle of Delphi in the ancient Greek world. Nothing like recycling a good idea.

The British media’s prophecy is that Burnham will quickly step into the job of UK Prime Minister and restart the Labour Government with fresh vigour and new imagination. Not to mention better public communication. The constituency who thinks he’s a potential saviour is much bigger than the consistency who thinks he’s a devil in the making.

Will ambition and power’s potential corrupting effect take a hand. Or will the man with the name: “King of the North” have accumulated the knowledge and experience needed to shape history to the country’s benefit. A good sprinkle of luck will no doubt be needed too.

Despite what has passed in our post-Brexit land. UK PM’s coming and going, will Burnham be a force for good? I wouldn’t say past performance is any predictor at all. Making the buses run on time in Greater Manchester is a far cry from being a political party leader and UK PM.

I, as do so many, wish him a fair wind. Let’s hope he and his team can get to grips with the need to adapt, change and even be disruptive where it’s warranted. I hope he will not shy away from big decisions or be cowed by either his own side or the perfidious British right-wing media.