Travel – John Vincent

Sustainability in Aviation

Conventional thinking pervades. It’s the model for seeming to be reasonable. To grow consensus and find a middle way through opposing parties. To bend in response to the wind that blows from popular opinion. Institutions are inclined to go this way. This is not surprising when an organisation is set-up to serve a large constituency. There’s the need to emphasise the parts of public policy that coincide with the mission of the institution. To push back gently against the ones that run adverse to that mission too. The Royal Aeronautical Society’s (RAeS) position paper on Airports[1] is a nice example. Here’s a few points that come to mind.

Linking Airports and Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) isn’t such a good idea. Yes, there’s the fact that Airports have infrastructure which every form of air transport needs. That’s the upside. The downside is the competing for resources and high cost of the provisions at major Airports. There’s a degree of environmental saturation that can’t be avoided.

One of the greatest opportunities for AAM is that of entirely new air transport links. Afterall, a Vertiport needn’t take up much space. As long at there’s plenty of electrical power and links with other modes of transport there are exciting possibilities.

A long time ago the commuter class of aircraft operations was created in the US. These were referred to as air taxies (fixed wing). The idea was then to open a travel market at a layer below large transport operation. It wasn’t that successful but does show mixes of types of traffic at major Airports doesn’t work out for the smaller parties.

Regional airports, and their potential, are greatly undersold. It’s wrong to see them as merely part of a hub and spoke network. What they do best is to serve their local communities. Having recently flown through Bournemouth (Hurn) Airport for the first time, it’s clear that so much can be done to spread the load and make traveling again a pleasant experience.

To me, I see the emperor’s new clothes. The case of the expansion of London Heathrow Airport (LHR) is not viable. Dressed up as an investment opportunity this continuation of incremental development is what we do badly in the UK. Environmental saturation has hit the rails. The proposers are dressing up a project that is the proverbial putting of eggs in one basket.

I don’t think the same can be said of London Gatwick Airport (LGW). In fact, squeezing the amount of capacity out of what’s there now is a feat of amazing ingenuity. Surely, that major London airport does need a genuine second runway. Even with less good than needed surface access this former racecourse has the ingredients for success.

Yes, I know it’s difficult to get away from London centric thinking in the UK. Nevertheless, that’s what’s needed to ensure the whole country thrives. Airport policies that lump everything else as “others” or under one label as “regional” aren’t tacking the challenges. The UK as major cities. Each has significant needs for air transport.

Some say that environmental objectives and Airport expansion are not compatible. The difficulties are clear to see. Each area of concern needs resources at a level commiserate with the needs. Quality of life, in and around Airports, should not be traded for economic benefits alone. Tackling air quality, water quality, on and off Airport noise, waste management, traffic volumes, overflight privacy, and enhancing biodiversity are not merely nice to haves.

[1] https://www.aerosociety.com/media/29306/raes-airport-expansion-in-the-uk-position-paper-april-2026.pdf

Numbers, Nostalgia, and Dystopia

I’m not sure what conclusion to draw from these numbers. There are people who believe that numbers are important in a cosmic sort of way. Certain combinations have a special meaning. Even the Bible goes in for this kind of mystical philosophy. I think this is a normal human instinct to look for patterns in everything. That is, even when nothing useful can be said about those apparent patterns. Me being reasonably rational, numbers are simple symbols with relatively simple meanings put to a myriad of uses. [Please let’s not go into complex numbers].

The thought that came to me is that the auspicious year of 1984[1] is now 42 years ago. And I think you know what I might write about the number 42. Life the Universe and Everything. The result of a long computation started to find out what life was all about in a fantasy world.

So, now it’s fine to conclude that the fictional world of 1984 didn’t come into being in the last 42 years. However, it can be argued that the groundwork for a political dystopia has been done in the meantime. There’s no doubt that in four decades a lot of interconnections and interdependencies have been constructed as globalisation has taken hold. Our everyday News cycle is proving this to be undeniable. A repercussion of the acts of a difficult politician on one continent impacts the availability of home-grown food on another poorer one.

My life in 1984 was as a young engineer trying to navigate through several workplaces to get the most interesting employment that was on offer. Fortunately, a great deal was happening in the field of electronics in the 80s. Integrated circuits where getting increasingly powerful. As the years clicked by the miniaturisation of components made possible what was once impossible. Several major projects were underway whilst industry was undergoing a rapid transformation.

[A different transition from the one in prospect brought about by artificial intelligence but, in so many ways, just as impactful and a fundamental percussor.]

This weekend, I was transported back to August 1984 and the island of Crete. In amongst piles of memorabilia there I found a scruffy notebook from a package holiday to Greece. My second venture to that Mediterranean country but the first with my partner.

That was a paper-based time. Airline tickets were paper. Money was paper (traveller’s cheques). Photographs were paper. Travel was a wholly analogue experience. Telephones tied down by wires. Even the Boeing 757 that transported us from London Gatwick to Crete had a cockpit full of dials, levers, knobs and switches, all mechanical.

Illuminating in our notes was the reaction to the heat and some continuity. Crete in August is hot at the best of times. That didn’t stop me from wandering along a long stretch of beach looking for an archaeological site. The further we went, the further it seemed we had to go. My saying that it was – just around the next bend – was never forgotten. And this week, there it was in barely legible handwriting.

Tourism has expanded many fold since those innocent wanderings. Greek buses are now modern and often quite regular, which they weren’t in 1984. Basic bathroom facilities in uncooled concrete apartments have given way to four-star hotels and luxurious pools. Nostalgia is fine, if it’s not taken to ridiculous levels, as is the habit of some of my generation.

[1] https://www.orwellfoundation.com/

The Power of Words

Two hundred and fifty years. It’s good to see and hear that we still have decent speech writers and a monarch able to deliver an address with immense style and a fair degree of humour. This week, King Charles III delivered an important address to a joint session of the United States Congress. It’s a wonderful reminder that the spoken word can be powerful.

Now, I’m not saying that these good efforts will change much in respect of world affairs. In fact, my view was that the King may have chosen a better time to make the trip across the Atlantic. Nevertheless, what is, is. If nothing else the perspective the King offered is one that looks over the whole of the experience of relations between the UK and US. Not focusing on the aggressively tribal and divided polices of the moment. Perspective is so important.

The reference to the history about the British burning down the White House, in a raid on Washington, was one I knew. It was part of a story I learned when visiting Baltimore years ago. Walking around Fort McHenry[1] and thinking what it must have been like when the battle raged. 1814 was a turbulent year.

The forging of independence was ferocious. It wasn’t actions that passed quickly or in one simple sweep. If I remember rightly, events were such that they could have gone either way. There were plenty of Americans who questioned the fight as much as there were those dedicated to it.

Here’s where I’m going. One of the factors that shifted the ground was not the cannon and the riffle. Although war did much to determine the outcome. In the end, it was too costly for the British to continue and the Americans were unrelenting and well organised. To fight and win, motivation is at the heart of the matter. There’s got to be compelling reason to commit all the energies needed. To take on all the inevitable risks and suffer the losses.

This is where the name Thomas Paine comes up. Described as an English-born American. He certainly was English, and thus British. He was a writer. Not a warrior or a politician or even a wealthy man. A simple object. A pamphlet stirred the emotions in a way that fired revolution.

He’s best described as a radical. What that means is a person with the ability to light a fire. To take people on a journey from one place to another. That’s frequently met with discomfort, prevarication and grudging reluctance. There’s every reason in the world not to upset the apple cart or to be content with the status-quo. A true radical will not accept this condition. They are not the easiest of people to live with and often come to a sticky end.

There are two things at play in this story of “modern” history. One is the power of the writer and the other is the medium itself, the pamphlet. Both are required for a storm to brew. Both need to be in tune with their times. This is not merely a story of history. Before and after, Paine there were writers and pamphlets but none that resonated so effectively at a critical moment. Thus, words gave momentum to change that stuck.

Today, there seems to be a surfeit of thinkers and writers. The problem is that none of them seem to be sufficiently in tune with the core of our society. The other problem is the medium for dissemination. New pamphlets exist in digital form. Social media is the river that carries the day’s espials, chronicles and visionary tracts.

In 2026, can someone capture what we want, write it down and draw a crowd around it? I think they can. Where are they?

[And it doesn’t have to be more than 90 pages long.]

[1] https://www.nps.gov/fomc/index.htm

Unity and Diversity

Ironic isn’t it. From the point of view of the pound in my pocket international trade, globalisation, is as important as it ever was and at a time when politics is getting more nationalistic and polarised. A ships captain stresses in Arabia and my car becomes ever more expensive to run.

It’s election time. Good luck to the Welsh nationalist in their bid for power. However, if anyone voting for them thinks it will make them richer they are probably going to think that even if an asteroid hits Cardiff. Much the same has been the Scottish experience.

In turbulent times, and all other times, we are stronger together. Sorry to use that slogan again. It’s a good one, but it proved to be bl**dy useless during the Brexit campaign ten years ago. Today, there’s certainly a need for European solidarity despite the separation that took place. Whether it’s in people’s hearts as well as their minds is another thing.

Solidarity is a wonderful instinct unfortunately it plays on many levels. For me, the United Kingdom is a construct that has served us well even if it is difficult to manage. What I mean is that unity has not brough a fair distribution of life chances and prosperity across the whole nation. To counter that it may be as well to say that solving problems in declining industrial communities can be so much different from solving the same problems in vibrant and dense city neighbourhoods.

Another slogan that gets banded around is the notion of no one left behind. It’s to point the figure at places that have suffered gradual decline, coastal communities and former sites of heavy manufacturing, and to say they should be special targets for help. So, they should be given support. However, it’s not just money that needs to flow from thriving prosperous areas to hard hit ones.

One policy that doesn’t often work is the purely restorative one. A case of trying to recreate the past. Bring back the fishing boats or reconstruct the fossil fuel industries. Equally, making their rusty remains into tourist attractions and museums has a limited shelf life.

I think the first effort must be to get at the soul of a place. Not just amongst nostalgic older folk. That strange meld of culture, community, history, geography, that has a uniqueness about it. What makes young people want to stay or leave?

The Welsh experience is one to note. Let’s take a place that has seen massive changes. The Llanwern steelworks site dominated the Newport[1] skyline for a century. Heavy industry. Coal and steel were key to the modernisation of Britain after the war. In recent decades, decline and uncertainty have been constant bedfellows.

What’s positive in this story is the resilience of the region. The reinviting back of nature. Continuing pride in heritage. Exploring opportunities for the future. Potential, sometime dormant, needs ambition and optimism. This is not a time to look inward and build more protective walls. Interconnection and interdependency are facts. We must make them work for the whole community.

[1] https://www.cityofnewport.wales/en/Home.aspx

Human Space Travel

It’s right to point out that space exploration is not solely a scientific endeavour. It’s odd to have to point that out. I do so because there are some purists who think that money should only be spent of space exploration if there’s a tangible scientific gain to be had. This thinking goes back to the agreement that public funds should only be spent of Earthy concerns. A glance at the extensive list of trouble that persist around the globe is one reason to focus on Terra firma rather than up at the heavens. That said, the choice is rarely simple.

Then there’s the accusation that exploration, of any kind, is intrinsically imperial. Powerful entities looking for sources of future dominance and wealth. This is not entirely wrong given humanity’s history of plundering resources from wherever they come. Minerals and trade routes being a couple of the primary sources of interest. A strong political will can be amassed to compete to be first to get a foothold on new territory. Despite all the above there’s something more complex going on.

The recent Artemis II space mission may not have been a great boost to humanity’s scientific knowledge. This adventurous lunar fly-by mission was more about proving technology than gathering an abundance of discoveries. Afterall, the far-side of the Moon can quite adequately be surveyed by automated spacecraft. Much as is being done by robotic machines on Mars.

I think there’s little doubt that 1^st to 11^th April 2026 will be recorded in the history books. If for no other reason that the gap between the Apollo space missions and Artemis. Like so many schoolboys in the 1960s, I watched those black and white TV images of men on the Moon, as they happened. I became an engineer. Would that have happened anyway? Probably, but I’m not discounting the inspirational impact of the Apollo missions.

[What would we ever do without the writings of the ancient Greeks and Romans. Certainly, naming new space missions would be a lot harder.]

Do we need crewed missions in future? Given the advances in automation and autonomy that have taken place in the last 50-years, so much can be achieved without the need for humans on-board a spacecraft. However, this is not a binary argument. There are, and always will be, the need to take human experience to the absolute limits. President Kennedy cited George Mallory for a reason to explores space, “Because it’s there,” he said.

The simple notion that humans should be constrained and confined to Terra firma runs contrary to our intrinsic nature. Although societies do become more risk adverse as they acquire the comforts of economic success, there’s still an appetite for exploration even if it entails great safety risks. The allure of being the first does not diminish.

Ideally, the combination of adventure and discovery go hand in hand. Space exploration is not just indulging the most adventurous amongst us. Thus, I go back to my proposition that there something more complex going on.

The ancient Greeks and Romans could help. For what is humanity’s destiny? Ad Astra has a meaning. Far more than the movie of that name. Not one of my favourite movies either.

There’s an inevitability that humanity will go to the stars. That is, if in the meantime wars or environmental degradation do not consume us. Exploration is part of a natural progression of intelligent life. It maybe (likely to be) happened elsewhere in the universe too.

Why King Charles Should Delay US Visit

I’m doing that Keynesian double-take. The facts change, so what do I do? I change my mind. That’s what I’ve done in respect of the current situation on the other side of the Atlantic. Shear pig-headed stubbornness is in fashion in high places. That prideful assertion that says nothing I do or say can be wrong. Well, I’m not going to fall into that foolish trap.

Should the UK’s Head of State pay an official visit to the United States (US). The answer must be “yes” at an appropriate time and place. I listed a respectable number of reasons why the UK and the US are linked by history and a whole lot more. However, I’ve put a caveat on the view presented. At an appropriate time and place, is a way of saying that there should be conditions.

As it stands, the King’s planned visit to the US this year should be called off. The conditions are not right for a successful visit. The US -UK special relationship has a past, it may have a future but at the present there’s a big problem.

In this anniversary year of American independence, I had argued that it was good to celebrate a long-standing relationship. However, just at this moment, the US and UK are in quite separate places. It maybe the case that the citizenry in both countries is thinking similar things. What’s clear is that the leadership of both countries are not on the same page.

If the non-partisan opinion polls are to be relied upon, the citizenry in both countries have a highly negative view of the decision to enter a war in the Middle East. Putting the UK’s Head of State in a position where an appearance can be manipulated to indicate support for the instigation of war in the Middle East is not a good place to be.

It’s right to acknowledge the facts. There is a war in Europe which is of greater concern to most British people. That situation needs to be resolved. Engaging in a war of choice in the Middle East is not in the best interests of people in the UK, or Europe. It’s happening and the daily news gets worse and worse.

From what I gleam, and what little I know, King Charles is doing well at upholding the dignity and integrity of the British Monarchy. Not so easy a task when blessed with a wayward brother and long-standing family splits. The King is faced with small protests in the UK given his brother’s past associations and the blind eye that was turned to his brother’s behaviour.

I’m a British republican in nature but continue to have respect for our peculiar constitutional settlement. Yes, we could do better but that’s an argument for another time. Imagine how much distaste a substantial number of the British people will feel if our King is seen to align himself closely with an unpopular American President. Not good optics, as they say.

My points are made without thought of political bandwagon hopping as favoured by lots of UK Members of Parliament (MPs). That just doubles-up the complexity of making the right long-term decision on this difficult real time issue of international relations.

It’s clear to me that, in his second term, the legacy that President Trump will hand down to the next generation, is and will be a horrid and tragic mess. We’d better start looking further ahead at how the 2030s[1] can be made a better decade. Historian will look as aghast at the late 2020s. The political volatility of the current situation is such that predictions become even more difficult. Power drains away when politicians ignore the people – let’s see how that goes.

Post 1: I agree with David David Dimbleby labels King’s visit to US ‘an embarrassment’

Post 2: Now there’s no doubt in my mind that the King should not visit the US at this time Iran war latest: Trump issues expletive-laden threat to Iran demanding Strait of Hormuz be opened – BBC News

[1] Trump’s term of office: 20th January 2029.

Runway Incursions and Airline Safety

Firstly, condolences to the families and friends of those killed in the recent aviation accident at LaGuardia airport in New York. It’s incredibly sad that this destructive runway incident took place in the way that it did. At this stage there is a jumble of international News reports. As is often the case while attention is focused on what happened at a time when the facts have not been verified or data collected.

What is known is that Air Canada Express flight 8646 was where it was supposed to be on a runway and an airport-based fire truck was not. The resulting high-speed collision had disastrous consequences for both the aircraft and the fire truck.

The US National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) has quickly engaged to start a detailed technical investigation. Their role is to independently piece together all the information that is available and determine a probable cause of the accident. With that to make formal safety recommendations aimed at preventing accidents and incidents.

What I can say is that the subject of Runway Incursion (RI)[1] is a long-standing aviation safety concern. So much so that it has its own accident category when it comes to aviation safety data analysis. Such tragic events are not isolated or extremely improbable.

Air Traffic Control (ATC) is tasked with separating aircraft from each other and any other vehicles. Accidents in this category have been the catalyst for advances in equipment and procedures. That said, there’s no getting away from the substantial number of human and operational factors that pervade this domain.

Unlike the design and construction of aircraft system whereby an onerous safety objective can be stamped on a technical specification. Managing air traffic on the ground is done with a high dependency on the actions of professionally trained staff.

In an internationally accepted code, a RI is defined as:

Any occurrence at an aerodrome involving the incorrect presence of an aircraft, vehicle, or person on the protected area of a surface designated for the landing and take-off of aircraft.

I don’t hesitate to say that’s what happened at LaGuardia. This says nothing about – why?

So, we have an indication of what happened. What’s a little unsettling is how quickly there is News reports speculation on why it happened. Initial references to someone having made a mistake or error are no helpful. This signalling tends to encourage a simplification of the circumstances of the accident into a matter of blame. That unfortunately leads to an impression that this is a rare event that can be attributed to one factor. All to often this is not the case.

The actions of professionally trained staff can be put under such work pressure as it comes to a situation where no normal person can perform adequately. It was the introduction of Safety Management Systems (SMS) that was intended to identify these scenarios and ensure that they were mitigated or eliminated.

The actions of everyone involved with this fatal aviation accident are now under investigation. Aviation is not a “a dangerous business”. However, it is a business that requires more care and attention than most. That includes the provision of adequate resources at all times.

[1] https://www.intlaviationstandards.org/Documents/OccurrenceCategoryDefinitions.pdf

The Ever-Evolving Debate in the UK

It’s astonishing to me. On this site, I’ve been scribbling away for nearly a decade. My first item was posted at the end of April 2016. It was mostly in reaction to the national referendum that had been called on the United Kingdom’s membership of the European Union (EU).

I’d returned to the United Kingdom (UK) after 11-years living in German. In Cologne. As you might expect my reaction to this peculiar referendum was one of bemusement and shock. Had my home country gone completely off its trolly whilst I’d been focused on other matters?

We now know that it was sheer nativity (and a degree of vanity) that brought about this unfortunate situation. One of our privileged public schools educated Prime Ministers (PMs) took it upon himself to deal with an irritating divide in his political party. He was aided and abetted by a former leader of the UK’s most pro-European liberal political party (Nick Clegg). Go figure that one. At the time, Tim Farron was the leader of the Liberal Democrats. Sadly, capable fellow that he is, he had about as much political influence as a flag in the wind.

The campaign to remain as an EU member should have had all the campaign advantages. Lack of planning and imagination on the part of David William Donald Cameron, and those who surrounded him, meant that advantage melted away.

Reading my past words, it seems that I’d hit the nail on the head with this short line.

Migration is the biggest issue for some people when it comes to the EU referendum vote.

Cameron and Co majored on the economics. A number crunchers paradise but shamefully remote from the people who mattered – the British voters.

I’ll stick with the theme of peculiarity. Guess what, after Brexit, now a decade on, that short line is still top dog. What that tells me is that those on the right wing of politics in the UK will never ever be satisfied. To the point of building an impenetrable wall all the way around the country (rather than a path[1]). To shun anyone who they can label as a foreigner.

Those who profit from inequality and polarisation will never ever stop this push to ever most extreme positions. They have been frighteningly successful in that the political centre in the UK has moved gradually to the right. Gravelly, the cost to the average citizen has been high.

After a decade of reflection, the nation needs to get away from building walls and pilling on layers of domestic bureaucracy. The vision of the UK as a big gated community with arbitrary partisan government controls is a dumb one.

It’s fine to say that in early 2016 none of us could have foreseen COVID-19 or Russia’s foolish drive to war. We couldn’t have even foreseen President Trump’s second term in the US, although there are commentators who had that one called.

There’s a long list of predictions about Brexit that have come true – most of us are poorer.

Ironically, global matters are having more impact than ever. The need for regional and global cooperation is self-evident. Building stable institutions to serve that purpose remains of paramount importance.

[1] https://www.nationaltrail.co.uk/en_GB/trails/england-coast-path/

Transitioning to Green Aviation

Put your hands over your ears if your mantra is – drill baby drill. If climate change is a myth, in your mind, or you take a devil may care attitude, then the mere mention of the word “green” may give you the jitters. This is not for you. Move out of the way.

For the rest of us, who live in the real world, on planet Earth, there’s a problem. A prickly, tricky, sticky, long-term global problem. One that has commanded a great deal of attention but sometimes almost to the point of boring the pants off. Transport is one of those sectors that needs attention. Progress toward the adoption of Electric Vehicles (EV) is underway. Now and then, there’s a push back, but the direction of travel is clear. An immediate reminder of the need to change is the volatility of fuel prices at the pump. An inability to control or foresee global events that push oil and gas prices one way and then the next.

Sustainable aviation is turning out to be a hard nut to crack. For ground-based vehicles the issue of power density is not as constraining as it is in aviation. Weight is one of the fundamental parameters in flight. So, current high energy batteries present a particular technical challenge.

Exploring new forms of flight propulsion is a god send for futurologists, researchers and adventurous innovators. None of the technical challenges are a quick win. The avenues for study are infinite. Well almost. Antigravity doesn’t seem to be on the cards – yet.

I guess one of the barriers is that we have a sophisticated global aviation system that we, almost entirely, take for granted. The technology involved in transporting 200 people from a cold, grey, dull, wet Britain to a sunny warm inviting holiday destination has matured to such a point that few look at it with astonishment. That so much is provided for so little outlay.

It wasn’t that the problems of providing such air transport services were easy to solve. It’s an inheritance that has stretched over many decades. Testament to the work of a vast number of smart entrepreneurs, engineers, scientists, officials and alike.

Hydrogen fuel, or some form of hybrid propulsion does seem to be a long-term prospect.

What I see now is the excitement created by past projections is being tempered by practical reality. Wonderful strategic plans, with outlandish charts, pointed the way to a fossil fuel free utopia. Those colourful documents did good in driving forward a level of thinking. Where they offered a lesser contribution is in predicting and enabling a practical transition.

This is the time when everyone does a double take. Where the aim is a workable business cases that provides a transition in a believable, sound and rational sense. Flirting with bankruptcy has been a habit of past adventurous aviation developments. Read the turbulent story of the jumbo jet. Most agree this is not a desirable state to wish for or be in. Maybe this is the tale of the tortoise and the hare. Methodical plodding through the difficulties, incremental change, ingenuity and sheer hard headedness are needed. A couple of points to round off.

One – don’t get stuck on the repetitive nonsense that new developments can’t takes place until the regulatory structure is in place.

Two – don’t build houses on all the small airfields and lesser-known airports that may, one day, become part of a new transport system[1].

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plymouth_City_Airport

The Mystery of Flight MH370

It’s ridiculous and shocking. In the modern era of civil aviation, that a large passenger aircraft can go missing and never be found. This tragic disappearance that has had experts baffled.

Mysteries, in the early days of flying, were not commonplace. They were, however, sufficiently commonplace for pulp fiction writers and amateur investigators to fill their boots. Mysteries at sea, and in the air have been a fascination for as long as there has been maritime and air transport. As our scientific and technical capabilities have increased so has our expectation that these mysteries are of the past, not the present.

Without any cause for concern, Malaysia Airlines flight MH370[1] took off 12-years ago. The aircraft disappeared from radar and has never been seen since. Parts of the aircraft have been recovered. Unfortunately, those parts provided insufficient evidence as to where the whole aircraft crashed. With what is known, this Boeing 777-200ER[2] aircraft is somewhere in the depths of the ocean. How it got there, wherever there is, and why remain unknown.

The most recent sea search for the wreckage of the aircraft has yielded no findings. Systematically searching the Indian Ocean, an organisation known as Ocean Infinity, has not advanced our understanding of what happened to flight MH370. That might be unfair, since we now know that the aircraft wreckage is not likely to be at the locations they searched.

The vast area of the Indian Ocean has an average depth of over 12,000 feet. Locating an object on the seabed is a hard task even when there’s some idea where it’s resting. To make the task even more difficult, ocean seabeds have a wide variety of geological formations. Mountains, crevasse and flat expanses.

We spend most of our time living on dry land. The reality of planet Earth is that a larger part of its surface is covered with water. That we can be thankful for given what we see of other planets.

Thus, the importance of having the mechanism for location that works anywhere and everywhere. Airborne Communications, Navigation and Surveillance (CNS) is vital in all aspects of international flight. Flight MH370 was equipped with Boeing’s FANS-1 (Future Air Navigation System). This does have a surveillance function in that it provides aircraft position reports via satellite communication (SATCOM).

[In the late-1990s, I was involved in the standards setting and regulatory approval of the airborne components of both the Boeing FANS-1 and AIRBUS FANS-A systems].

Reports of the loss of MH-370 say this aircraft system was working at the point of take-off. Official reports also say that this aircraft system was “deliberately” disabled during the flight. A mystery remains as we may never get to understand the motivation for this action.

There’s no good reason for disabling such systems unless they are presenting a hazard to the aircraft in flight. Clearly the crew need to have the ability to isolate aircraft systems in the event of an avionics bay fire or other significant failure events. Circuit breakers are provided for that purpose. Procedures and training are too.

So many questions. Will the Indian Ocean search be revived again? Not for a while, I think.

[1] https://john-w-vincent.com/2024/12/20/mh370-and-mh17-a-decade-on/

[2] The ER stands for Extended Range.