Referendum – Page 7 – John Vincent

Our right to a referendum

I have just read “Why a second Brexit referendum is required by law” and find the arguments made in this article compelling[1].

It’s basically saying, any proposed future EU treaty that transfers areas of power, or competences, should be subject to a referendum on that treaty. The ‘referendum locks’ introduced in sections 2, 3 and 6 of The European Union Act 2011 (EUA) form part of a broader system of control over the making of various decisions related to the EU[2].

The exit agreement that’s being negotiated by Government Ministers will, if successful result in a future UK-EU treaty. Thus, it follows that that treaty should be subject to a referendum. That’s not a referendum about staying in the EU or leaving it, but a referendum on the final treaty that deals with the powers and competences of the EU in relation to the UK post the leaving date. Since there will be a transition period we know that there will be legal obligations to be met by both UK and EU.

I hope, I have understood this situation correctly as it seems eminently logical. The EUA remains in place to date. The reasons for the EUA being made law in the first place remain valid. As this is the case a referendum on the “deal” is thus required by UK law. To change this the Government of the day would have to repeal this EUA and as a result take away any direct say the British people may have over a final deal and transition period.

It’s not a simple passive matter of something lapsing. Being of 2011, it’s not an out-of-date law. A repeal of the EUA would be an active and wilful disenfranchisement of the British people. Quite the extreme opposite of “take back control”. More a question of we (Conservative Government) have control and there’s no way we will let the people have a say. Even to the extent of changing the law to stop a referendum taking place.

[1] https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/why-a-second-brexit-referendum-is-required-by-law

[2] https://ukconstitutionallaw.org/2012/01/12/mike-gordon-the-european-union-act-2011/

Better Steps

WP_20170804_006 What is needed more than anything else now is a good strategy for backing out of Brexit. It would be ironic if those who criticised the lack of planning for Brexit didn’t have a plan to get out of it. A road map to turn the ship of State around would help to give confidence to the world.

In the mix are legal niceties, political realities and social upsets but none are insurmountable.

The first of these, legal means, maybe the easiest. Since there’s so little written to explain what Article 50 intended in terms of detailed process and procedures then invention is possible. Add to that the fact that those who came up with the original words have expressed the view that the mechanism is reversible. So, when the moment is right it’s a simple matter for the negotiators to close the books and walk away from the table.

A second factor, the politics, is difficult but day-by-day the whole Brexit road trip is becoming more and more unpopular in the UK. For a politician worth their salt there must be the sense that, to be on the winning side, the time is right to move away from the hard liners. To be part of the future it’s time to start making those speeches that spell out what comes next. Not to be reactive and wait for an almighty crisis but to get out ahead and describe a better future.

On the third point, the social element, the shift could get complicated. There is no doubt there would be a degree of revolt orchestrated by the diehard supporters of Brexit. Even if a significant majority clearly show a wish to drop Brexit a powerful, monied and noisy group would kick out. Unfortunately, that means some conflict may be unavoidable but it would be short lived and sporadic in its nature.

Weighing up the costs and benefits of the above, I believe there’s a clear case to drop Brexit before more damage is done. The ways and means are not so complicated and are achievable over a couple of years. How to make all this move forward? The excepted wisdom of the moment is that a second referendum is needed to test the public mood. Equally, a General Election could be the trigger for the change. Alternatively, a realignment of the political parties may be another way to take this step.

Let’s see a confident Britain in Europe and in the rest of the world and do it now.

Our place

The outcome of the EU Referendum has left many of us shocked. There’s still a sense of disbelief that a small majority is driving such a massive change in this Country. The emotional bonds that bind Europeans are deep rooted. That’s a reason why having this terrible divorce forced upon the nation is overwhelmingly depressing. One foolish gambling British Prime Minister threw the dice and lost his shirt and ours too.

Every citizen in the European Union is European. Granted the EU is one part of Europe. Our European family comes together in different ways and it can be counted as over 50 Countries. Although Britain sits at the North West corner of the continent its every bit as European as the continental mainland. There isn’t a moment in our history when our affairs haven’t been intertwined. Even the builders of Stonehenge traded with tribes beyond these islands.

It was fascinating to listen to the author Clive James on Channel 4 News, last evening. Although he edged towards the leave camp his overwhelming reflection was how embedded we are in European culture. Any view from afar places Britain firmly and squarely in Europe. Socially, culturally and geographically our place can’t be denied.

Now, in these uncertain times there are more questions than answers. Uncertainty isn’t just about numbers it’s about how people feel about the future. Ironically, prolonged uncertainty may be one of the only certainties in the next couple of years.

My truth

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There’s a difference between lies and exaggeration. Oh yes there is. I faced the argument that – both sides lied in the EU referendum didn’t they? It not uncommon for people to become cynical about politics and politician’s and that’s a reason they give; none of them can be trusted. Post referendum this notion is embedded more than ever it was in the minds of the British people.

We might ask – what is truth. Equally – what is exaggeration? There’s a real distinction. It’s reasonable for a passionate argument to spill over into exaggeration but it’s NOT when it moves to downright lies. Say for example, we have a whole pile of adjectives in the English language that emphasise the largeness or smallness of a number but they don’t change that number. If I said; an “extremely large” number of people instead of a number of people, you’d take it as read.

Newspaper headlines that scream: “£350 million a week for NHS” quoted from those with no intention of delivering that funding are deliberately false promises (lies). Soundbites that say: “Brussels tell us what to do” are crude distortions – that’s a kind of selective lying. Like saying; “I hold a banana in my hand” when in fact it’s a beetroot.

The EU referendum was won by only a tiny margin. That tiny margin of British voters were swung by misinformation, distortion and deliberately false promises – yes; lies. It isn’t clear where to go from here but it’s a dreadful place to start any journey. Humpty Dumpy really has fallen off the wall.

My biggest concern is that capable, honest and passionate people will become silent because they have been drowned out by unchallenged cheaters. Good people will steer away from public life because it’s so horribly tainted. Talented young people will seek their fortunes elsewhere as a new British “brain drain” kicks off.

It will take more time for the “dust to settle” but this should not stop us challenging the result.

Tricked

Yes, I did go to Sunday school. At the small parish church in Horsington. St John the Baptist’s has all the features you would expect of an English village church. Back in the 1960s a small area was set aside for Sunday school. I hear there’s still a children’s corner in the Church. Also, as a family we attended the Methodist Chapel in South Cheriton. Contrasting with the CoE, this was a place where animated lay-preachers offered a more down to earth view of heaven and hell.

I’m telling you this just to give a little background on what shaped my view of right and wrong. A lot more than this youthful experience seeped into my subconscious as I became agnostic about religion. Being sceptical probably came more from non-conformism, my secondary school teachers and my argumentative nature than any sermons or doctrine.

Out of a vibrant mix in the 60s and 70s, I developed a rational way of looking at the world and a strong sense that people should tell the truth. That there are such things as provable facts. That progress is the natural order. And that you help yourself by helping others. Now, this all sounds strangely retro as I reflect on what has happened over the last few weeks.

Taking the UK out of the European Union will be hugely complex. A lot of people said it would be hugely complex. Many sound arguments were set out as to why it would be hugely complex. Regardless of all that this is the path that has been chosen by a majority of voters in the UK all but by a small margin. That said, I can’t help but think that a deception has been practiced on the British people. So many half-truths and nefarious speculations were put-up on banner headlines. Dubious statistics and manipulated facts presented bright and colourful did sway the direction the vote took.

Now, a flurry of back tracking is underway. Quick comparisons with before and after interviews make it clear: a week really is a long time in British politics. Outcomes are manifold but one is to reward those who made the biggest exaggerations and told the dodgiest selective stories. So, how can this be right? I guess, it isn’t.

How do you feel?

Difficult to put into words but here goes. Let’s be clear, this is NOT a minor political disagreement. It’s right to be angry on behalf of the people who were deceived. It’s right protest against the legitimisation of xenophobia. It’s right to disagree with the referendum result. If we had just voted to restore the death penalty or instate apartheid, I’d continue to be strongly against it whatever the chance of change. Especially if that change happened by a vote with a small percentage margin.

Some are feeling helpless and disillusioned but that’s not me. I sit with tempered anger and a seething fury with the dishonesty of the LEAVE campaign. A lot of the LEAVE campaign leaders are scoundrels and they should not be rewarded for their actions. There’s also the terrible feeling of – couldn’t we have done more – that’s always there when the clock stops.

Transforming the raw emotions of the last few days into motivation and action is going to happen. It just might take a little more time of pain and grieving. I haven’t lost the last four decades but may have to reflect of them as a golden era. A time when grand ambitions could be realised. Yes, I know I have been exceedingly fortunate in life. Being in the right person in the right place at the right time. That was back in mid-2004 at the interview for a job in Europe. I then joined a new organisation that was starting up in Cologne in Germany. For a decade the comradery and sense of common purpose we had was exceptional. I don’t use that word lightly; it truly was exceptional.

My own experiences of working in a multicultural place is that its complex. When it’s well managed the results are world beating. Overall the rewards far, far ever outweigh the difficulties or the costs. I’m not just being selfish and talking about personal rewards. The whole of our society reaped the benefits of the work that we did and will continue to do so.

Now, with this vote to leave the EU we are stuck in a “No Man’s Land”. There are no solutions in a kind of British mono-culture. Similarly, and taking note of why people voted the way they did; there is no solution where big business and newspapers owners get to dictate Government policy.

The fight for this referendum may be over but the fight to determine the kind of Britain we want to be has only just begun.

Divided Nation

I’m suffering the tail end of a summer cold. It’s an annoying inconvenience which, at least, thanks to nature has a beginning and an end. I started to feel less than 100% on Wednesday and Today; Saturday it’s on its way out. Ironically, this morning was my first NHS health check-up in a while. That took place in the surgery around the corner. Basically, I’m happy to say that was a – you’re fine come and see us again in 2021 affair.

That’s my physical health. If only everything was so simple because early Friday morning it felt like I’d been hit by a large truck. Went to bed on Thursday night in the expectation of waking-up to a predicable radio alarm and the BBC news rattling off the referendum results as; REMAIN win closely followed by LEAVE. What I got was exactly the opposite. What I got was a violent hammer blow. What I got was frankly unbelievable.

What a blind idiot! I’d said; “trust the people” not knowing the naivety of that remark. I genuinely thought that there was enough collective wisdom out there to mean that the British people would make a good choice. The vote didn’t worry me. I never thought we would all have to live with a result that led to Great Britain leaving the EU. Hell no – together we couldn’t possibly be as crazy as to make that irrational choice. Everyone would laugh. Then everyone would panic. Then a heavy cloud of sadness would fall.

Here we are on these islands in a truly incredible place. The gravity of events hasn’t yet sunk in. Monumental changes have been set in motion. I live in a Country that’s as ideologically divided as North and South Korea. As divided as East and West Germany was in the past. As divided as the English were in 1642. Two completely opposing visions of Britain stand facing each other. Only one has been given the green light to move forward. I’m sorry to talk in such binary terms but there’s no other way of looking at the lay of the land. A small three letter word keeps going around in my head – it’s sad.

Next, I’ll pen some words on why this situation is wrong looking at it from a rational, emotional and an ethical perspective.

Final hours

Hours tick away and the drama of the moment is not lost on anyone. Last night, Ruth Davidson, Sadiq Khan and Frances O’Grady held the Leave campaign to account for their fibs during this long referendum campaign. Every time I hear a broadcast about the referendum, I can think of more reasons to vote REMAIN tomorrow.

I hope that we can get away from the politicians’ habit of constantly repeating a lie until it becomes a perceived “truth”. If anything that’s the real tragedy of this national referendum. That said, most independent fact checking favours REMAIN facts far more often than LEAVE assertions.

Failing to plan is planning to fail. Those wanting to leave the EU with no plan for Britain are asking for a leap in the dark. That’s not a wise choice for either the optimist or the pessimist.

I’m fed up with British politicians saying the EU they built is a failure. It’s not. So many people across the world look upon what Europe has achieved with great admiration. If Britain chooses to leave the EU, it would not only have an effect inside Britain but also on the rest of the world.

The EU is not perfect. What human institution is perfect? Our seat at the table means we can shape Europe. How can we break away and negotiate new deals if we can’t make sound deals next door?

This referendum is a great exercise in democracy. However, let’s not do this too often as it forces divisions between people that will be hard to mend but mend we must.

We need to keep Britain in the driving seat. We must lead, not leave Europe. Vote REMAIN.

Words Matter

There have been so many words uttered during this EU referendum campaign in the UK you would think that anything goes and it hardly matters as the background noise has been so loud. Can the millions of pages of words that have been written or the billions of words spoken change the outcome? It’s hard to say “yes” or “no” to that simple question.

However, I believe it’s wrong to say that the public debate hasn’t changed much. For one, the debate has become a struggle to capture public attention and that’s produced some ghastly rhetoric. I guess, that crude language of expression is a sign of our times. Not only that but the style of presentation often trumps the substance. Pomposity and bombast put me off but some people love it. Overall, sadly there has been little truly memorable oratory.

Anyway, I was taught that when you have a complex problem to solve then start by going back to first principles. So, here we go. The core propositions of both IN and OUT campaigns are predictions. Predictions that one way means you’ll be better off and the other way means you’ll be worse off. In my mind, and I’m a rational person, the more trustworthy information you have to support your case the better. Failing that, I look at the person or group making the prediction and ask myself – do they know the subject?

Having read and listened to a lot in the last 100 days, I can say that; without any shadow of a doubt that the REMAIN campaign has provided the most reliable information. Also, they have the most credible supporters and speakers not just in the UK but worldwide.

I think, it would be extremely foolish to ignore the declaration of the G7 leaders made in Japan in May this year. “A UK exit from the EU would reverse the trend towards greater global trade and investment, and the jobs they create, and is a further serious risk to growth.”

We will all be better off by voting to REMAIN in the EU.

Contradiction

We can have confidence in Britain’s capabilities without having to believe in Gove’s economic miracle. Anyway, there’s a huge contradiction at the heart of the leave campaign’s claim. They are saying; trust me because all the others are wrong. A long list of experts says; REMAIN is best option out of the two but Gove says the opposite.

Let’s consider this situation. If all the calculations of the world’s forecasters are all wrong, then major decisions are being poorly made across the globe. Investments and the spending of Governments are in error. The inevitable conclusion from this is that chaos and recession are imminent and inevitable. In such an event, Britain would be impacted regardless of being IN or OUT of the EU. Whatever happens; “No man is an island”.

However, if the calculations of the worlds forecasters are at least half way right there is a chance of continuing recovery and stability. There’s a chance risk is being managed and that decisions based on those forecasts are sound. To me this scenario seems by far the most plausible and a better bet.

It’s true we should not choose our vote solely on the basis of what experts say, particularly economists but it would be foolish to ignore their information. You can drive a car by looking out of the window and daydreaming but its far safer to pay attention and glance down at the instruments from time to time.

Britain is already a “progressive beacon” in the world. That position has been reached because we have embraced partnerships and understand how to work with others. Being in the EU does not stop Britain projecting its influence. In fact, leaving the EU would be a powerful negative signal to everyone we work with around the globe.

I conclude that the overwhelming case to REMAIN in the EU has not changed in the last weeks.