Category: Travel

Brexit and Aviation 45

Ah the persistent and unpredictable ups and downs of Brexit.  One political lesson to be learned from this dreadful mess is that a powerful slogan pitched at an opportune moment on fertile ground can have a big impact.  “Take back control” means a hundred and one things to millions of people nevertheless those three words resonated on 23rd June 2016.  In Europe, we have spent 40 years taking down barriers.  This move has dramatically increased opportunity and prosperity for the majority but created an insecurity amongst some groups.  Control to them ment putting barriers back up.

In aviation, we recently celebrated 25 years of European liberalisation.  It’s only because of open markets that we now have one billion passengers flying.  We have high growth in a mature market which is globally unusual.  If we return to nationalism dominating ownership and control of organisations it’s inevitable prices will rise, and growth will be impaired.  Protectionism is a false God.

There’s no doubt that Europe has major infrastructure challenges.  The capacity and quality of our transport systems is inadequate.  In European aviation there’s strong common interests.  Lines on the map may work on the ground but in the air the current arrangements make little sense.  To solve these problems closer ties are needed not looser ones.  Closer ties are needed if we are to continue to prosper from international tourism.  In 2017, Europe remained the top visited region with more than 671 million tourist arrivals.

Close cooperation in safety and security essential.  Facing these critical challenges alone is not viable.  The only way to take control and have a real influence on the future is to cooperate.  One of the elements of European cooperation that is assumed to continue regardless of Brexit is the European Union’s Single European Sky (SES) programme.  Functional Airspace Blocks (FABs)[1] are a key tool of the EU’s SES programme, aiming to help reduce the fragmentation of air navigation services.  The UK/Ireland FAB aims to contribute to meeting key performance targets on safety, cost efficiency, capacity/delay and the environment.  Surely that stays?

The noisy voices that say the UK Government should sever all ties with the EU maybe don’t realise how that suggestion is extremely foolish.  Let’s hope the instability caused but the Brexit will be viewed in 25 years’ time as a temporary phenomenon.

[1] https://www.ukirelandfab.eu/about/

 

Brexit and Aviation 42

The roller-coaster that is Brexit continues to roll.  One day positive news and the next negative.  This week, British MPs were told that a Brexit deal would be done by the end of November.  A few hours later the Minister’s department was forced to correct the record and say there was no set end date for UK-EU negotiations.  With less than 150 days to go to the Article 50 end date, it’s like an aircraft on approach without any idea if there’s a runway ahead.  Government would do well to remember the rule about flying – Every take-off is optional. Every landing is mandatory.

There are several rules of the air that could apply to the current situation:

Flying isn’t dangerous. Crashing is what’s dangerous.

Never let an aircraft take you somewhere your brain didn’t get to five minutes earlier.

Remember, gravity is not just a good idea. It’s the law. And it’s not subject to repeal.

I’ve written often this year.  Now, 42 there’s a number to get to grips with as we reach November.  If you are not familiar with THHGTTG then you have missed out big-time.  Author Douglas Adams made that number the answer to the meaning of life, the universe, and everything.  Nothing I write here can ever match that answer.

Of note in the recent news is the European Parliament vote confirming relocation of European Medicines Agency and European Banking Authority after Brexit.  UK loses out on influence as these two Agencies move to ensure minimal disruption to the EU’s Single Market beyond March 2019.

Views of the foreign Press don’t make nice reading.  The German media have had quite a bit to say about how Brexit will affect everyone[1].  In Canada, they see the UK as being gripped by a self-destructive madness[2].  In the US, CNN says; Brexit is like a screaming child[3].  It’s clear that Brexit news won’t be slowing down any time soon.

The Treaty of European Union, known as The Maastricht Treaty, came into effect on 1 November 1993.  Today is the 25th anniversary of the Maastricht Treaty.  It was signed by Ministers from the then 12 Member States.  This Treaty is the one that avid Brexit supporters dislike so much.  I remember the political climate that year as being one of change and turmoil.  Change to the extent that I was elected as a County Councillor in Surrey along with 28 colleagues.

One innovation the Treaty brought to flying was that airport queues, solely for UK travellers were abolished in 1997.   The Treaty introduced free movement for EU citizens.  Now, the intention seems to be to dismantle that innovation, at least for British subjects.  Maybe that’s one reason the Chancellor put and extra £500 million in the budget for preparations for leaving the EU.

[1] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-45564684/brexit-what-does-germany-s-media-think

 

[2] https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-a-self-destructive-madness-grips-the-uk-as-a-no-deal-brexit-looms/

 

[3] https://edition.cnn.com/2018/09/14/opinions/brexit-is-a-screaming-child-opinion-intl/index.html

 

Brexit and Aviation 38

Today’s batch of posted Government notices have a weakness that is too obvious to mention.  Piecemeal publications addressing what seem like random subjects on decidedly technical issues are great for the administrators and lawyers of service providers.   However, there’s no easy to understand information for the general public.   It’s good to know what the implications of “No Deal” are for package holidays[1] but little of what is provided will help the average British shopper.  If someone buys a holiday packages from an EU based travel company, they may or may not be protected depending upon whether that company has a UK business.  Try explaining that to someone scanning the INTERNET and comparing travel deals.  Yes, the fine print always matters but if you think you’re dealing with a reputable travel company and the price is right, a Government technical notice may not be high on your mind even if you know it exists.  The national media are making their own reading of the notices and that paints a gloomy picture for spring next year in the UK.  Here’s the view from ITV.

So, my advice is; have a good winter break and don’t book anything for April 2019.  It would be as well to look at the individual airline and travel company too.  Some will be better prepared than others.  Some will have special terms and conditions to cope with potential problems.  Some will still be pretending the change is minor or will go away.

Another of the big Brexit issues that isn’t given much attention is the coincidence of risks.  What I mean by this is that; normal emergency planning is focused on one major event.  A hurricane, a banking crisis, a plane crash are all examples of catastrophes where a Government should have an emergency plan.

The problem with Brexit at 00:00 on 29 March 2019 is that everything will happen at once.  I’m not saying the weather will change, although who knows? but each sector will go through a significant transition at the same time.  Even within each sector, like Aviation, every part of it will have to transition in one moment.  Some parts will be impacted, and others will not.

Trying to anticipate all the combinations and permutations of interdependencies and interconnections that will be impacted is a daunting task.  Because of the limited time and the sheer complexity of the task even a good analysis will miss important connections.

On the political front all we hear is – it’ll be alright on the night.  It may be comforting to think that a smooth and orderly Brexit is possible in ALL scenarios.  However, you would be foolish to be taken in by such an assurance.   Unprecedented disruption is likely in a real “No Deal”.

I’ve got a couple of events in the calendar where Brexit will be a topic.  One is a conference in London called: Negotiating Brexit:  Where Now? Conference[2].

The other is a “Regulatory Changes and Challenges” panel session at MRO Europe[3], taking place in Amsterdam between 16-18 October.

[1] https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/consumer-rights-if-theres-no-brexit-deal–2/consumer-rights-if-theres-no-brexit-deal

 

[2] https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/negotiating-brexit-where-now-tickets-50182431002

 

[3] https://mroeurope.aviationweek.com/eu18/Public/Enter.aspx