Category: Travel

Brexit & Aviation 114

We are now in that strange no-man’s-land between Christmas and the New Year.  Often a time when people are gathering their reflections on the year that’s passing.  It’s a time to look ahead too.  Look ahead with hope and optimism, in so far as one can.

There’s a couple of news stories floating around primed to stir-up new political conflicts as we burst into 2020.  A “will they or won’t they?” series of speculations about the rules that the City of London may or may not have to follow post Brexit is running.  Similar speculations could be applied to transport but that’s not at the top of the agenda just now.  It seems crazy to state the obvious but leaving an organisation based on law will have legal consequences regardless of the sector.

Next year, talks will proceed along the lines of the Political Declaration that was drawn-up by the two parties, in October last.  That document is non-binding but does set the tone for what the UK and EU want or wanted at the time.  No doubt a red line for the EU27 Member States in the 2nd phase of the Brexit negotiations will be a level playing field[1].  As I’ve pointed out before, in aviation technical regulations and standards are just as important as tariffs.  In my last item, I poo pooed “no alignment” because my Mr Spock like logic says; no one aims for a lose-lose outcome.  Do they?

Today, some right-wing activists are shouting; let’s get back to gallons, ounces and yards.  Having won battles like the change of the British passport colour to blue[2], there’s a group that has been emboldened by Brexit.  All British passports issued from early 2020 will be blue.  National newspapers[3] print the cry; let’s have temperature reported in Fahrenheit and liquids in pints and fluid ounces.  All this might be easily dismissed but it is as well to remember that a whole lot of things have been dismissed and then they came to be.  Unfortunately, for us appeasing a populist political trend is part of the play book of the new UK Government.  On 31 January the Department for Exiting the European Union (DExEU) will come to an end.  The UK PM will next switch from phrases like: “Get Brexit Done” to “Taskforce Europe” to whitewash the fact that Brexit goes on and on.  At the same time the UK Parliament will become no more than a bystander in what’s to come.   

None of this retrograde thinking or smoke and mirrors is in the best interests of the Country.  We are at a time when digitisation is transforming the heart of aerospace manufacturing.  Aviation businesses are implementing significant changes to maximise opportunities in more integrated systems.  Being side-tracked into British imperial theme park romanticism will mean a declining marketplace.

These Brexit stories will be a part of the popular news in the year ahead but so will be the US Presidential race.  What happens in the US will have a global impact, especially if the incumbent is re-elected.  That will be in the foreground while EU – UK talks will be in the background until a crunch decision time comes.  There will be more than one of these crunch times throughout the year.  Expect a predicable line to be taken as the Conservatives tighten their grip on power.

[1] https://www.epc.eu/en/publications/Ensuring-a-post-Brexit-level-playing-field~26c1e0

[2] https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/passport-design-changes/changes-to-the-design-of-british-passports

[3] https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/01/now-sovereign-nation-must-bring-back-imperial-units/

Brexit & Aviation 106

I’m waiting for the headline: The European Union (EU) has agreed to extend #Article50 a third time.  This could delay any possible #Brexit until June 2020.  Now, that sounds a lot saner than jumping off a cliff edge.  Especially if Britain and Ireland say they can bridge the gap between their two positions.  The Pound Sterling shot up as the markets took stock of the News that Prime Minister Johnson may not want to force us out of the EU on October 31st with No Deal.   Nevertheless, there’s a hell of a lot of people who remain with no trust in this administration.  The cold hard reality is that agreeing with Ireland most likely means the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP)[1] will be very unhappy.  Then the prospect of getting any deal through the UK Parliament gets even harder.

Amongst the latest news from Ireland is a series of Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)[2] on Brexit from the Irish Aviation Authority (IAA).  Post Brexit Ireland realises that it will need to develop new trade routes, especially those of air transport.

In the UK a “No-Deal Readiness Report” has just been released[3].  The part of the Government document on UK airlines highlights that Brexit means more bureaucracy and not less as some people may have claimed:

  • UK airlines operating to and from the EU will need to obtain a Part-TCO safety authorisation from the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) and an operating permit from each relevant Member State. The Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) website provides extensive and detailed information on the actions that airlines need to take on its website.
  • UK aviation personnel involved in the operation and maintenance of aircraft (pilots, cabin crew, engineers and air traffic controllers) will need to ensure they have obtained the relevant licences and safety authorisations from the CAA and EASA. The CAA website provides extensive and detailed information for the action that personnel and UK airlines need to take.
  • EU airlines will need to apply for an operating permit from the CAA, their website provides extensive and detailed information on the actions that EU airlines need to take.

Further on the document is quite clear that UK regulatory bodies will no longer be able to license products for the EU market.  UK regulators will take on regulatory functions currently carried out by EU regulatory bodies, like the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) in Cologne.  Further on in section E, the document talks about Aerospace goods.  It doesn’t make pleasant reading.  If the UK leaves without a deal, the EASA will no longer automatically recognise aviation safety certificates and approvals issued by the UK Civil Aviation Authority (CAA).

Aerospace companies continue to warn of “serious risk” in current plan, as the UK Government fails to reassure them about participation in EU agencies.   It might be nice to think that the UK will continue to be a global aviation leader but in this new situation it will be in competition with its former partners.  I suppose few who voted in 2016 realised any of this would be an outcome in 2020.

[1] The Democratic Unionist Party is a unionist political party in Northern Ireland favouring British identity

[2] https://www.iaa.ie/news/2019/10/02/iaa-publishes-brexit-faqs

[3] https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/no-deal-readiness-report

Aviation & Brexit 99

A public petition that says: Parliament must not be prorogued or dissolved unless and until the Article 50 period has been sufficiently extended or the UK’s intention to withdraw from the EU has been cancelled, stands at over 1.6 million signatures.  It’s one indication of the level of public outrage that the UK Government has provoked by its latest actions.

Going back to the pre-referendum world, my years commuting back and forth between the UK and Germany had a few ups and downs.  Snow shutting runways, an engine failure, delays and boring evenings spent in departure lounges at Gatwick and Cologne airports.  That said, on average the experience was fine.  I got to know the interior of an Airbus A319 was well as anyone.  British Airways, EasyJet and Germanwings, now Eurowings use the aircraft.  It’s a fine modern aircraft for flights of around an hour.

So, what will routine business travel be like if Brexit goes ahead after the end of October?  Looking at what’s available, a November flight from London to Cologne can still be scoped up for under £100.  But it’s emerging that short work assignments to European Union (EU) Member States are not going to be so easy as in the past[1].

For a start checking your passport is an absolute must.  Gone are the days of jumping on a High-Speed Train with nothing more than a driver’s licence as ID.  I often travelled between Cologne and Brussels having left my passport at home.  Now, it’s essential to check you’ve got at least 6 months left on your passport from the start of any journey.

The EU has amended its regulations to allow visa-free travel for UK nationals for short stays of 90 days in any 180-day period.  Another Brexit effect is that UK nationals will no longer be able to use EU lanes at airports and ports.  Also, UK nationals may be asked about the duration, purpose of visit and their financial means when entering the EU[2].

There are official UK Government warnings about travel[3].  One of them concerns medical insurance.  UK nationals visiting the EU need to have private medical insurance after 31 October.  That may be difficult for those with pre-existing conditions who may be excluded from cover.   My free European Health Insurance Card (EHIC) will not be much use after Halloween[4].

EU leaders are due to meet for a summit in Brussels on 17 – 18 October, just a fortnight before the UK’s current withdraw date.  There’s a small chance that Brexit negotiations will bring about an agreement.  It is only a small chance.

[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-13/advice-for-london-bankers-in-no-deal-brexit-refundable-tickets?

[2] Assuming a No Deal disorderly Brexit and continuing uncertainty

[3] https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1167436816405979137?s=20

[4] https://www.nhs.uk/using-the-nhs/healthcare-abroad/apply-for-a-free-ehic-european-health-insurance-card/#

 

Aviation & Brexit 81

It’s about a month ago since I last wrote.  This has been a busy month.  European Parliamentary elections took place on Thursday in the UK.  The results of those elections will not be known until late on Sunday.  A long process of local and regional counting will take up most of Sunday.  What it will mean in the UK is still unclear but at least these were real votes in real ballot boxes.   The outcome of which should be a sound indication of the current public mood.

The UK is now in the position where if it ratifies the existing EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement (WA) before 31 October 2019, an EU withdrawal will take place on the first day of the month following the completion of the ratification procedures.  However, there are no signs that national ratification is on the cards.  The UK’s two largest political parties have given-up on negotiations to come to a compromise on Brexit.  This should be no surprise since a deal between the Conservatives and Labour would still have to pass the through a grid-locked House of Commons (HoC).  A compromise involving the UK staying in a Customs Union (CU) is more than the hard core Brexit supporting Conservatives can accept.  Now, as if the above wasn’t enough, the UK’s Prime Minister is stepping down.  A starting gun has been fired on a that leadership race and it’s unlikely to be helpful to any potential political compromise.

The Brexit stasis continues to have a pressing and disruptive impact on the aviation and travel industries.  Recently, the travel firm Thomas Cook reported a £1.5bn loss for the first half of the year[1].  Behind this were several factors but one of the bigger ones was potential customers putting off their summer holiday plans.

With Brexit delayed until later this year, the UK is exporting people.  Now record numbers are applying for Irish passports[2] and that may give a boost to aviation in Ireland.  As an indicator, I’ve had a conversation with a person prepared to relocate his businesses if Brexit remains unresolved.

In the technical regulation arena, the objective would seem to be to maintain as much continuity as possible[3].   Our international rules-based system assumes that Countries will work together to improve conductivity.   But the situation remains fluid between the UK and EU, and there are still big questions to answer before we reach 1 November 2019.

The power-play going on between US and China is not a good background in which to continue with the uncertainty of Brexit.   The UK should be defending multilateralism in this situation.  A choice needs to be made since the UK’s aviation future need not shift from an influential rule-maker into a rule-taker.  In this region, retaining membership of EU Agencies, like EASA remains a viable option.

Brexit is now in a go / no-go position.  I’m more of the opinion that the project must be terminated and quickly.  Even if it is not, close alignment with the EU still has major benefits.   Is there the political vision in the UK to steer Brexit to a conclusion?  It’s going to be well into July 2019 before we even have a hint as to the answer to that question.   3-years since the UK referendum and its only uncertainty that is certain.

[1] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48292318

[2] https://www.irishpost.com/news/how-to-get-irish-passport-166453

[3] https://ebace.aero/2019/news/latest-news/ebace2019-session-looks-at-impending-brexit/

 

Aviation & Brexit 80

It’s a week ago since I last wrote.  It’s been the week of Easter.  Politicians took time off and the news cycle found new stories to cover including exceptionally warm weather.   In terms of progressing towards a solution to the Brexit crisis nothing much happened.  Or at least nothing much happened in public.

Brexit continues to be a lose-lose proposition.  On both sides of the Channel the impasse rattles on.  All the energy absorbed by Brexit has weaken the economies of both the UK and the Continent.  CNN[1] recently reported that its China that is the big winner from Europe’s Brexit chaos.  That could well be the case, if not in the short-term then certainly in the longer term.

The European Parliament (EP) is now in recess until after the European elections at the end of May.  The new EP will be in place in July.  A new European Commission will be appointed.

This means UK holidaymakers will have to make a leap of faith if they are booking a beach holiday on the Continent this summer.  Since Brexit is delayed, but that could be cut short the assumption may be made that conditions remain; business as usual at least for a bit longer.

Since the referendum was first called in 2015 the UK pound (£) has fallen from roughly 1.4 Euro to the £ to its current rate of around 1.15 Euro to the £.   UK holidaymakers will need to take this into account when booking packages.  In all cases measures to keep aircraft flying will be in place but there’s a strong likelihood that higher fares and less choice are on the cards.

As a highly regulated industry the importance of what happens to regulatory relations matters a great deal.  Aviation cannot prosper without a mature and stable framework within which to operate safely.  All the international evidence points in that one direction.

The UK played a major part in the formation of the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), but it would seem to be stepping aside.  Regardless of what the UK does, EASA’s tasks within the EU-27 and its 4 associated countries will continue uninterrupted.   The UK’s possible withdrawal puts it in a difficult position with diminished influence.  Any withdrawal will significantly alter EASA’s cooperation with UK authorities.  Even in this peculiar situation there may still be a re-think but just now nothing remains untouched.

[1] https://edition.cnn.com/2019/03/27/europe/china-europe-brexit-italy-bri-intl-gbr/index.html

 

Brexit & Aviation 77

The original Brexit transition date has gone by.  Am I comfortable writing this on 1st April?  Well it’s past lunchtime so it would now be bad form to make a joke about the whole debacle.

It’s another day of UK Parliamentary “indicative” votes or should I say evening?  We might imagine a compromise be sought and happiness reigns.  However, every time I hear a UK politician talk about compromise, they usually mean others coming around to their point of view.  The outcome of the “indicative” votes held by the House of Commons (HoC) on 27th March were received with disappointment but at least they were an attempt to move forward.   Regarding the future course of the Brexit the, UK Parliament is deeply divided on the big decisions, but voting patterns are starting to emerge.

Clearly, the international money markets think that a “soft” Brexit is the flavour of the day.  UK’s currency hasn’t ducked and dived too much for a while.  On the table is the proposal to remain in a Customs Union (CU) with the EU Member States.  This doesn’t explicitly touch on civil aviation although it does concern the movement of goods and services.  Implicit in this arrangement is close cooperation and collaborative working.  So, it’s conceivable that might extend to such possibilities as participation in European Agencies.

Whilst compromise and consensus are desirable and nice to talk about, the tone of the continuing public debate isn’t getting any calmer.  The BBC News Reality Check[1] team just published a reasonably worded assessment called “Brexit: Will flights be disrupted?”.  Reading some of the comments to this item posted on Social Media indicates that we have a long way to go.  The more polite ones are along these lines: I can’t believe people really think this is an issue, we few our planes before the EU and media starts scaremongering just before the Easter holidays.  The knee-jerk reactions of vocal Brexit supporters are to deem anything that paints their project in a negative light as: bias and scaremongering, regardless of its veracity.

There’s a tendency to ignore the fact that the single market in aviation has transformed flying for British air travellers.  There’s greater choice and competition and new routes across Europe and beyond.   It’s impossible to go back to the 1970s.  And who would want to go back to a State controlled industry without much concern for passengers?  Ignoring the reality that the EU has delivered is twisted and downright foolish.  After nearly 3-years no one knows what Brexit is or will become.  It’s a truly shocking situation.

[1] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47225806

Brexit & Aviation 75

Travelling between the UK and Europe at some indeterminant future date?  Planning your holiday for 2019?  You may need to take a lot of extra steps before you travel.  Both the EU and UK are taking measures to mitigate any severe disruption to air travel post-Brexit.

For EU registered airlines, EU law will continue to apply to flights to and from the EU.  For passengers on a flight departing from the UK, similar passenger rights should continue to apply after the UK leaves the EU.  The UK Government has said flights will not be cancelled due to Brexit.  However, if there is flight disruption due to Brexit, you probably will NOT get compensation.  Air travellers only get compensation if a delay is deemed to be within the airline’s control.  Clearly Brexit and its repercussions are beyond their control.

In order to off-set the concerns of many travellers, companies are issuing advice[1] and guarantees[2].  Also, their Terms and Conditions may be updated to say that the cancellation of flights due to Brexit will NOT be deemed to be within their control.  Some airlines may class a Brexit cancellation in the same category as a natural disaster like a volcanic eruption or earthquake.

A lot of effort is being put into assuring business continues, whatever the outcome of Brexit.  But offers of Brexit guarantees are not for free, someone is baring the costs.

One of the least favoured options is that there be No-Deal between the EU and UK post Brexit.  Now, the uncertainty continues as it’s clear the UK will NOT be leaving the EU this coming Friday.  A Salutatory Instrument has been passed by the House of Commons (HoC) that has changed the planned leaving date to either 12 April 2019 or 22 May 2019.

Last night, the British Parliament took control of the HoC agenda and conducted a series of “indicative votes”.   There was no majority for any of the Brexit options on the table.  However, amongst UK Members of Parliament, the “Peoples Vote” option, a further referendum, secured the biggest vote in favour (268 votes).

Another EU summit is being planned in Brussels for the week commencing 8 April 2019.  Another extension will be on the table if progress hasn’t been made in the UK.  Each extension taken up by the UK shortens the planned transition period by a corresponding amount of time.  The current Article 50 period can last as long as the Treaties on which it is based.  A positive option is desperately needed to plot a way forward.  The option to revoke Article 50 is always there.

[1] https://www.easyjet.com/en/help/boarding-and-flying/brexit

[2] https://support.thomascook.com/Travel-Advice-Safety/Leaving-the-EU-Brexit-Questions/1134032422/How-will-Brexit-affect-my-holiday.htm

Brexit & Aviation 71

I have an admiration for the staff at the House of Commons library.  At least someone is trying to keep track of what’s going on[1].

So far, there have been 475 Brexit related Statutory Instruments (SIs) laid before the UK Parliament.  That’s 79% of the expected 600 SIs. In other words, a great deal of new UK legislation that needs to be in place the day after Brexit.  What’s astonishing is that we hear nothing from our law-makers about these acts of law-making.  The total focus is on the uncertainly over the direction that will be taken by the UK.  There are statements that Brexit is “deadlocked” but there remain many choices that can be made.  However, unless something is agreed exiting European Union (EU) treaties will, by automatic process of law, cease to apply to the UK in 18 day[2].

This situation impacts treaties with non-EU Countries too.  A House of Commons library paper looks at the UK Government’s progress in renegotiating and agreeing replacement treaties with Countries outside of the EU[3].

The UK Government has published a policy on EU Air Services[4].  Unfortunately, there’s little new in the policy and it’s substantially worse than the current arrangements.  Airlines are enacting their contingency measures, but much remains unknown.   For example; Ryanair[5] have said:

“We welcome the Civil Aviation Authority’s decision to grant our UK based airline, Ryanair UK, with a UK AOC, allowing Ryanair to operate UK domestic routes and UK to non-EU routes in a post-Brexit environment.

The risk of a ‘no deal’ Brexit in March is rising, and despite our robust post-Brexit structures, including our post-Brexit plan around European ownership, we continue to call for the UK and EU to agree a transition deal from 31 March 2019, so that any disruption to flights and British consumer summer holidays in 2019 can be avoided.”

The robust post-Brexit structure they are talking about is to change the voting rights of British shareholders such that the rules of being a European airline can be met.

For travellers who contemplate booking holidays or flights to, from or via the UK it may be prudent to wait for a few days.   Certainly, there’s a need to take out travel insurance that can cover a flight cancellation as a result of Brexit.  The insurance sector maybe one that will be benefiting from the increase in uncertainty but that’s their job.

[1] http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8370/CBP-8370.pdf

[2] https://interactive.news.sky.com/2017/brexit-countdown/

[3] https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-8370

[4] https://www.gov.uk/guidance/air-services-from-the-eu-to-the-uk-in-the-event-of-no-deal

[5] https://corporate.ryanair.com/news/ryanair-welcomes-caas-issuing-of-uk-aoc-for-ryanair-uk/

 

Aviation & Brexit 65

5 weeks and a few days to the end date that was put into legislation for the UK to leave the European Union (EU).  Both Saint David’s and Saint Patrick’s Day fall before the scheduled exit day.  There’s still a small chance that the departure could be called off but, just now, the bookmakers are increasing the odds in favour of a tragic “No Deal” outcome to Brexit.

In every respect negotiation between the 27 EU Member States have gone well.  What’s not going well is when they sit across the table facing the UK.  It’s not at all clear what the UK Government’s policy is this week.  Voices off from Ministers point in several directions at the same time.  On Tuesday, the UK’s Business Secretary[1] told manufacturing leaders that leaving the EU without an agreement would be a “disaster” for the UK and said he recognised the need for clarity “as soon as possible”.   Vagueness at such a late hour doesn’t look good from any direction[2].

Maintaining a position as a world player in the aerospace industry requires substantial investments in research.  During its membership, the UK has been a prominent beneficiary of the EU’s Horizon 2020 programme.  Now, the EU is planning its biggest research and innovation funding programme ever, with a budget of €97.6 billion.  This will be called Horizon Europe.  It will run from 2021-2027.

Trying to match the efforts of the UK’s neighbours might be the ambition of some UK politicians but their current performance doesn’t offer much hope.  Funds will no doubt be tight after any post-Brexit downturn.

The aviation ties between neighbours are the most important.  Over 75% of all UK holidaymakers and 66% of business travellers go to the EU each year.  63% of all tourists and 73% of all business travellers visiting the UK come from EU Member States[3].  Putting barriers in the way of this movement of people just makes both communities poorer.

[1] https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/brexit/news/101966/greg-clark-says-business-no-deal-fears-are-‘project

[2] https://twitter.com/CBItweets/status/1097903644970672131?s=20

[3] https://www.ig.com/uk/news-and-trade-ideas/shares-news/how-will-brexit-impact-airlines-and-the-wider-aviation-industry–180316#information-banner-dismiss

 

Blue No More

IMG_6349 (2)Today, as a traveller you don’t need to pay excise duty or tax on goods you bring in from the European Union (EU) if you: transport them yourself, will use them yourself or give them away as a gift and have paid duty and tax in the Country where they were purchased.   When arriving home from a trip abroad, we are all accustomed to the “blue” channel at UK airports.  You can bring any reasonable amount of alcohol or tobacco from the EU back to the UK, provide the local duties and taxes have been paid and that they are for personal consumption and not for resale.

That said, the rules governing customs are typically EU law and they are now directly applicable in the UK.  Since the UK intends to leave the European single market and customs union this may get complicated and means that UK law must be changed.

If the outcome of Brexit is “No Deal”, and the UK crashes out of the EU on 29 March 2019 without any agreement in place, it becomes a “Third Country”.   Thus, at a stroke, EU customs laws would no longer apply in the UK and duty between the two markets could be automatically returned.

So, the duty-free allowances are likely to change post-Brexit.  In other words, the allowances may become the same for those returning from either the EU or outside the EU.  This means losing the current more generous conditions, as quoted above.  After Brexit, returning from an EU Country may the same as returning from a non-EU Country like the USA, UAE, Australia, India or Japan.

The days of the “booze cruise” where people go over to France or Belgium and stock-up with a car load drinks for personal consumption may come to an end.  HMRC publishes information for arrivals from outside the EU[1].  That information will no doubt be updated within the next 50 days.

[1] https://www.gov.uk/duty-free-goods/arrivals-from-outside-the-eu