Events, my dear boy

It’s strange that with all the bumps, bruises and grazes that I’ve had so far, that I’ve never broken a bone. I’ve fallen off motorcycles, had bales of hay dropped on my head, almost drowned in rivers, damaged cars and had a couple of workshop accidents. I guess I am extremely fortunate, let’s say lucky, when I think on a couple of past accidents.

Of all the events that I can recount only a couple have left their mark. That indelible mark that’s a sign of life’s travels and travails. One finger wouldn’t be graded ten out of ten in a finger competition. My forehead has a small mark, could call it a dent, hardly noticeable by anyone other than me. That’s the list. Thankfully a tiny list.

I’m not counting a botch job of a hospital scare that a boyhood appendicitis left me. Images of that time don’t stack up to a big pile but one of rolling in agony on a living room sofa, I’ll never forget. A colourful children’s ward and unendingly cheerful nurses stick too. And a clown.

There are those near misses that leave no physical signs. Rich selection of memories. An acute compression in time. The electrical shocks I’ve had have no legacy other than my great respect of high voltages. Vivid recollections too.

Yes, if it wasn’t for a wide-awake race marshal at a grass track meeting[1], I’d probably have been run over you a Laverda sidecar outfit. Thankfully someone grabbed me from behind and pulled me to safety behind the straw bales that made up the ring. This was the 1970s in a bowl-shaped field outside a small town called Mere. Perfect for that crazy kind of bike racing.

At the time a mate of mine was a keen amateur photographer. He’d get a pass to photograph the action. We’d go to grass track and road race Auto-Cycle Union (ACU) meetings around the West Country. It was always interesting to read the disclaimer on our marshalling race tickets. Anything bad happens – not our fault.

My finger damage is much more recent. It’s the dumb stuff that caught me out. Moving plant pots around doesn’t usually result in any great consequence. Most of them don’t weigh a lot. In this case a large square fiberglass pot needed moving. I had tried pushing it. That didn’t move it far as it scraped slowly along the patio. Next tactic was to pull it. Getting some momentum going it seemed to move more easily as I pulled it. What I didn’t count on was the fragility of the material of the pot. It had aged. I pulled hard and surprise, surprise, it broke. I went flying across the patio at speed. Naturally, I put my hand out to save me tumbling down a flight of stairs. Sadly, my finger took the first impact. That was painful.

Life without one or two bumps, bruises and grazes is unimaginable. Maybe, I’ve got a little bit more risk averse with age. However, like the back garden plant pot incident there’s always an opportunity to be foolish. Having a story to tell about my father falling off a ladder while fixing a gutter, I’m particularly careful around those potential death traps.

I’m happy to admit that I haven’t got nine lives. Or at last I’ve used up a few.


[1] Example: https://youtu.be/ZqC2Hc43a3w

Impact of Speculation

The sadness of the loss of live and the suffering of air crash victims’ families, must be respected. On 12th June, Air India’s London Gatwick bound flight AI171 crashed after take-off from Ahmedabad airport. Only one passenger walked away from this catastrophe. Additionally, there were fatalities on the ground as the Boeing 787 aircraft came down in a built-up area.

My heartfelt condolences to those connected with this tragic fatal accident.

The technical accident investigation is well underway. In time, a probable cause for this accident will be determined. This will be published and available to all. As per the international arrangements of ICAO Annex 13 a report will be published. Organisations, with appropriate expertise, will carefully sift through the evidence to establish a sequence of events. This is not a matter of establishing blame. It’s a process of determining what happened with the aim of preventing it from happening again.

Meanwhile, the widespread reporting of the accident can only offer speculation as to the details of who, what, where, when and how and why. There are facts. The time, place and the people involved. Media interviews, with whatever pictures and video recording there are dominate the public domain. However, this is far from the volume of information the accident investigators will handle. They will have access to every nut and bolt, every document, every recording.

After another aircraft accident, back in August last year I wrote: Speculation is a natural human response. When faced with a paucity of information we often put together what we know and then make a best guess as to what happened or what might happen. However, wise or unwise it’s not possible to stop speculation.

In the case of flight AI171 the global media speculation has been, and is, of a new order of magnitude. Normally, the authorities caution against giving too much weight to early conjecture. This is prudent in that the obvious is often not as obvious as it might first seem. Accident investigation can be like putting the pieces of a complex jigsaw together. Deliberately and with great care.

What has been surprising in this case is the intensity of the speculation related to this accident both through traditional and social media. The proliferation of experts offering opinions has reached a new high. Until conflict and war grabbed the headlines everyday a novel theory, or a variation of a theory has been offered. Each one chasing credibility and expanding on limited sources.

Let’s not be pious. I’m not immune from this need to fill a void. My own reasonably well-informed theories float around in my head, but I question my senses in sharing them with others. It’s not a fear of being wrong, as I might be, no, more a fear of cluttering up a confusing mass of information to an even greater extent. Piling theories on top of theories.

Can we have too much of “experts” offering their opinions? Some will be trustworthy and considered, and others will not. How far is it reasonable to stretch what little is known into detailed stories of possible cause and effect?

How is the average person going to tell the difference between sound reasoning and imaginative nonsense? This problem was brought home to me in a recent conversation. When a newspaper revelation is told to me as a “fact” when I know it isn’t, then I see the dangers in excessive speculation.

This may not matter so much to me. In so far as it affects me. However, to an air crash victims’ family this not considerate. To be led to thinking that the cause of an accident is generally known, when it isn’t, that’s disrespectful. It’s the downside of speculation. Not something that is ever going to stop, it’s true. What some keyboard warriors need to think about is the impact of their wild guesses or prejudices.

POST 1: Even reputable publishers latch on to theories that are at best well intentioned and at worse just flying a kite. Air India crash: Early speculation points to possible dual-engine failure | Engineering and Technology Magazine

POST 2: To be fair this YouTube commentator does a good job at making it clear what is fact and what is not https://youtu.be/dIgnR0zw3FU