Tag: Aviation

Brexit & Aviation 57

It’s reported that the Director General of the British Chambers of Commerce said: “There are no more words to describe the frustration, impatience, and growing anger amongst business after two and a half years on a high-stakes political rollercoaster ride that shows no sign of stopping.[1]”

I’m sure that those words would be echoed by a great number of people in the aviation sector.

A defeat of 230 votes is massive.  MPs have rejected the Prime Minister’s proposals by the biggest UK Government defeat in modern history.  That ought to be a signal to change direction but we have yet to see if a new approach will be forthcoming.

Beyond the political hoo-ha there’s the need to act.  A great deal of implementing legislation needs to be passed through the UK Parliament, whatever the destination.  Naturally, this is needed if the Article 50 letter is not withdrawn and the whole Brexit process stopped.

The European Union (EU) continues to flourish despite having faced innumerable hard problems thrown at it over many decades.  This is not Greenland[2], this is a large and prosperous Country giving up its membership of the EU.  Thus, the avoidance of the loose-loose scenario, of a No Deal Brexit should be at the top of everyone’s priority list.  Meanwhile large sums of money, that could have been used growing European businesses are being pumped into contingencies.

If this Withdraw Agreement (WA) is not acceptable as it stands then it may return as WA2 but don’t expect that to be substantially different from what’s already on the table.  Alternatively, there could be public vote to consider the options.

The e-mail subscriptions to “SkyWise[3]” is useful to stay up-to-date with news, safety alerts, consultations, rule changes and airspace amendments from the UK CAA.  The site has a section for EU exit alerts.

There is useful material out there, but it indicates a poor state of readiness given all the caveats and unknowns that exist.  Just as business leaders are warning, the UK is like a super-tanker heading for the rocks.   72 days isn’t long to put that right.

[1] https://news.sky.com/story/growing-anger-frustration-and-impatience-from-businesses-over-brexit-11608581

[2] https://www.politico.eu/article/greenland-exit-warning-to-britain-brexit-eu-referendum-europe-vote-news-denmark/

[3] http://skywise.caa.co.uk/category/eu-exit/

 

 

Brexit & Aviation 56

On the 23 June 2016, the United Kingdom (UK) voted in an advisory referendum to leave the European Union (EU).  74 days to go before the date scheduled for Brexit and the Country is still vacillating.

As time ticks away its not a bad idea to have an eye on priorities.  If there’s some issues that rank above others in importance.  This is recognised throughout aviation.   It’s the way we construct an Aircraft Flight Manual (AFM).  Top of the list in an AFM are the Emergency Procedures.  It seems to me that we need a set of Brexit Emergency Procedures.  The future relationship between the UK and EU remains unclear and may do so for a long time.  That said, I’m not alone in considering what might happen in the different scenarios that can come into play[1][2].

Having made this proposition what would be in such a set of procedures?  Here’s a non-exclusive list of major topics that can not be left to chance.

  • Air Services Agreements
  • Safety Regulation
  • Security Management
  • Air Traffic Management
  • Environment

Today, civil aviation is regulated at European level.  All 5 of these subjects have been addressed in recent advisory publications at both national and European level.  However, it is still up to individual aviation stakeholders how and when they react.  There are no new directives that mandate a course of action for air transport services, even the essential ones.

If chaos does ensue on the effective withdrawal as of midnight (00h00) on 30 March 2019, then it will not be easy to understand where blame should rest.  The resolution of problems will need a forum to coordinate fixes too.  That is the unfortunate nature of the current situation.

Aviation is a dynamic part of the UK, contributing £52 billion to UK gross domestic product (GDP) and supporting close to one million jobs[3].   To be where we are now, with only 74 days to go is highly disadvantageous, to say the least.

[1] https://www.internationalairportreview.com/article/75237/brexit-and-aviation/

 

[2] https://www.iata.org/policy/consumer-pax-rights/Pages/brexit-study.aspx

 

[3] https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/european-common-aviation-area-brexit?gclid=Cj0KCQiAg_HhBRDNARIsAGHLV53iNpXElpsIy2vuN9a9jRIYGMWjwTEZ7Slm5UDYXZQqeRMgkMpaUcgaAhxqEALw_wcB

 

Brexit & Aviation 55

This week, I flew EasyJet mid-week from Bristol to Glasgow and back.  On the flight back, I noticed that the AIRBUS aircraft we flew on was registered in Austria.  It must be one of the 130 aircraft listed as registered to easyJet Europe Airline GmbH[1].  Now, there’s no single EU aircraft registry but this is an aircraft that is registered in an EU Member State.

The trip got me thinking that such a flight may not be possible after Brexit day in March.  This was an internal flight within the UK (England to Scotland).  In the event of a No-Deal Brexit, the EU has made it clear that UK registered aircraft will not be authorised to make internal flights within the EU.  I presume that the reciprocal will be true.  Otherwise the UK will be giving away rights that it can not excercise in the EU.  Thus, no EU Member State registered aircraft will be authorised to make internal flights within the UK.

I also got to thinking; what will Scotland do in the longer term?  It’s highly likley that the Scotish nation will want to retain the benifits of EU membership.

On Tuesday next, the UK Parliament should be holding a meaningful vote on Prime Minister (PM) Theresa May’s EU withdrawal agreement.  There’s much speculation that British Members of Parliament (MPs) are positioning themselves for the vote to be lost by a large margin.  So, Tuesday, 15 January 2019 could go down in history as a momentous day for British politics.  The reason is clear.  The UK Government has put all its eggs in one basket.  In a crude attempt to apply pressure to MPs, this is seen by many as a Deal or No-Deal situation.  As the clock ticks, MPs voting down the Deal on the table, which may well be amended, is increasing the chance of a No-Deal Brexit.  There’s some strange talk of a “managed” No-Deal but, in fact, there’s no such thing on offer.   The real choice is a mess of a Brexit or No Brexit at all.

Again, the aviation industry[2] is making it clear that such a No-Deal Brexit outcome would be disastrous.  Several UK businesses are already kicking-in their No-Deal contingency plans.  This could mean a great deal of business moving out of the UK and into the EU.  The lost opportunity costs associated with all this muddle and uncertainty must be huge.  Stability is worth a great deal to investors and those who are building businesses across Europe.  Additionally we must remember that the UK maybe leaving the EU, but it is not leaving Europe nor can it.

The benefits of staying in the EU’s Internal Market for Aviation[3] are extremely clear.   It is my hope that a No-Brexit outcome is arrived at.  Parliament will need to explore all the options.  This would certainly be best for travellers, aviators and the industry that supports them in the whole of Europe and beyond.

[1] https://www.austrocontrol.at/en/aviation_agency/aircraft/aircraft_register/search_online

[2] https://www.adsgroup.org.uk/blog/brexit-myth-busting-a-managed-no-deal/

[3] https://ec.europa.eu/transport/modes/air/25years-eu-aviation_en

 

Brexit & Aviation 54

In these Blogs I’ve been writing about the UK’s exit from the European Union (EU) and its impact on most aspects of civil aviation.  The way we (UK) are heading now, on 29th March 2019 at midnight CET (23h00 UK time) the UK will leave the EU regardless of the situation pertaining at the time.

Fortunately, even in the so called: “No Deal” situation the European Commission (EC) has a Contingency Action Plan[1] and says that UK airlines will be able to operate flights between the UK and the EU under certain conditions.   The UK has offered similar pledges for EU airlines and that should ensure the continuation of flights to and from the UK[2].

So, what might a typical traveller need to do on the day after Brexit?  Here’s a few things to think about if you are travelling to the EU after 29 March 2019:

Check the date when your passport expires. The UK recommends that you have 6-months left on your passport on the date of arrival in an EU Member State.

In the event of a No Deal Brexit:

  • A UK registered European Health Insurance Card (EHIC) will no longer be valid. Check your travel insurance as it will need to be valid to access medical care when you are travelling in the EU;
  • A UK traveller wishing to drive in the EU will need to apply for the relevant International Driving Permit in addition to having a full UK driving licence and
  • A UK traveller driving their own vehicle within the EU will be required to obtain and carry a physical Green Card for your UK car insurance to be valid in the EU.

It’s as well to have some financial reserves too.  Since the EU’s internal market for aviation was born there has been a revolution in European air travel.  Flight now costs are around 16 times less than they did in 1992.  If the UK is no longer a full member of that internal market prices will rise.

If your banking provider makes any changes to your UK accounts or credit cards you will need to know.  The expectation is that basic banking services will continue to be widely avaiable.  At the same time just about all Terms and Conditions will change.

There’s little good news to start the New Year.  Without a formal Withdrawal Agreement (WA) accepted by all, there will be no transitional period providing legal certainly, during which a new relationship with the EU can be negotiated.  I am sure, travel will not stop but the inevitability of additional costs for industry will certainly be passed on to the UK traveller.

Just as in that great hippy song “Big Yellow Taxi”, we will all be singing: “Hey now, now. Don’t it always seem to go. That you don’t know what you got. Til its gone.”

Technically, it would be difficult but not impossible to extend the Article 50 period for longer than an additional 3-month period, to 2 July 2019.  Don’t bet on it happening.

[1] http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-18-6851_en.htm

[2] https://www.gov.uk/government/news/department-of-transport-responds-to-european-commission-contingency-action-plan

 

Brexit & Aviation 53

Thanks to the entry into force of Regulation (EU) No 996/2010 on the investigation and prevention of accidents and incidents in civil aviation, there’s a European Network of Civil Aviation Safety Investigation Authorities (ENCASIA).  This coordination group came together in early 2011, while I was at EASA at the receiving end of their Safety Recommendations.

There’s 90 days left until the Brexit countdown runs out on 29th March 2019[1].  Even in a so called “No Deal” Brexit, there’s a proposal for an EU Regulation to extend temporarily (for 9 months) the validity of certain aviation safety licences.  But as far as I can see there’s nothing proposed in relation to Regulation (EU) No 996/2010.

ENCASIA works on improving the quality of air safety investigations and strengthening the independence of the national investigating authorities.  In the past, there’s often been conflicts between judicial authorities and those tasked with independent technical investigations.

Safety investigation authorities vary greatly in size and experience across Europe.   Two of the largest are the Bureau d’Enquêtes et d’Analyses pour la Sécurité de l’Aviation Civile[2] in France and the Air Accidents Investigation Branch in the UK[3].

Can we assume that Brexit of no Brexit these important aviation safety organisations will continue to work together?  Let’s hope so.  It’s essential that safety concerns that are Europe wide are addressed across Europe.

[1] https://interactive.news.sky.com/2017/brexit-countdown/

 

[2] https://www.bea.aero/no_cache/en/

 

[3] https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/air-accidents-investigation-branch

 

European airports and drones

I’m hesitant to put down a few words on drones after the London Gatwick event.  It may not be a time to be best received but at least the event is fresh in people’s minds.  December’s unfortunate events at Gatwick struck me as being a poor example of risk management.  Accepted that the outcome was a safe one.

Is it right to be risk averse?  This is not a simple question given that “risk” runs a huge spectrum.  Slicing it into two, we have the product of the likelihood of an event and the severity of the same event.   To simplify let’s just talk about the worst-case severity and that’s generally a catastrophe.

In flying terms that’s the loss of an aircraft and all on-board.   In aviation there are emergency procedures, built-in redundancy and a whole host of safety measures to reduce, mitigate or eliminate risk.  Yes, it’s not practically possible to eliminate risk in all events.

Put a drone and an aircraft in the sky together and there’s a risk of collision.  Sharing airspace means managing risk.  There’s no zero-risk solution except to stop the operation of either the drone or the aircraft.  If not zero risk, then what risk is acceptable?

There’s a classical probability term known as “extremely improbable”.  It’s often expressed as a probability of catastrophe per flight hour of aircraft operation.  Much of the design of a large civil aircraft is built on this simple idea.

In the case of a drone suspected of being a hazard to aviation its not so easy to do a safety assessment on the fly.  Normally, a great deal of factual evidence is complied and reviewed as part of any assessment.  There’s a sprinkling of professional judgement that comes into play too.

This is where the precautionary principle[1] can be useful.  If as in the Gatwick case, little is known about the offending drone then its better to assume the upper limit of what it could be.   The problem with being precautionary is that the approach has the tendency to escalate.  Examples of that are emergency calls to the local police about red lights in the sky around Redhill.  The lights turned out to be attached to tall construction cranes.

There then needs to be a counterbalance to this escalation and I’d call that; comparative risk.  Since the dawn of aviation there have been other hazards in the air.  These are birds.  Some are small and flock together[2] and others are large[3].   This risk is managed but it still produces a good number of incidents and accidents.

The drone collision risk can be managed.  What we saw at Gatwick was a poor example of risk management.  Some drone sightings may have been police surveillance drones.

Ideally, since all airports have the same risk to address, there would be a set of common procedures that would be deployed in the event of drone encounters.  The drone risk cannot be eliminated.  So, a common approach to risk reduction and mitigation measures needs to be in place.   I suggest that needs to be done in Europe and done quickly.

[1] http://ec.europa.eu/environment/integration/research/newsalert/pdf/precautionary_principle_decision_making_under_uncertainty_FB18_en.pdf

 

[2] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryanair_Flight_4102

 

[3] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/US_Airways_Flight_1549

 

Brexit & Aviation 52

Brexit continues to be a damaging process that is divisive for the Nation and the Government.  There’s now under 100 days left until the Brexit countdown runs out on 29th March 2019.

Edits and additions to the UK Government’s technical notices, to say to us all that a Brexit ‘No Deal’ is no longer an ‘unlikely’ outcome do little to reassure.  Now, the European Commission (EC) has adopted measures that will avoid full interruption of air traffic between the EU and the UK in the event of No Deal.  These measures are subject to the UK conferring equivalent rights to EU air carriers, as well as the UK ensuring fair competition.  Proposal for a “No Deal” Regulation[1] cover one year long temporary provision of basic air services between the UK and the EU.   UK airlines would no longer be allowed to land and transit in the EU[2].  The freedoms of the air are described in the ICAO Manual on the Regulation of International Air Transport (Doc 9626, Part 4).

Now that we have a Withdrawal Agreement (WA) on the table, British MPs need to give it their full consideration over the Christmas holidays.  However, the indications remain that the WA will not be supported in the UK Parliment.  Thus, we (UK) keep putting off the time when we can move on and look beyond, to future opportunities.

A safety net that gives only ‘basic connectivity’ is not a deal and it’s an enormous degrading of current citizens’ rights.  Life as a “third country” will mean that many of the benefits we take for granted will go overnight.

Lots of costly duplication will start to creep into aviation activities.  Now, the UK CAA has opened advanced applications for UK organisations wishing to seek a UK Design Organisation Approval (DOA) as part of their contingency planning.

Let’s be clear; a “No Deal” outcome, accidental or otherwise, is as a result of a choice.  A choice made by a Prime Minister and a minority of Conservative politicians.

There’s a different choice possible.  We do not have to give up the significant advantages of EU membership.  That would maintain Britain’s good jobs and earning power, but it takes a change of view.  It takes action in Parliament.

[1] http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-18-6851_en.htm

[2] https://blueswandaily.com/will-brexit-bite-for-airlines-brussels-no-deal-contingency-provides-safety-net-but-doesnt-rule-out-future-widespread-aviation-travel-and-trade-disruption/

Brexit and Aviation 51

On Friday last, we sat on the ground in Duesseldorf.  Having boarded BA945 ahead of time, we sat waiting for the instruction to go.  We sat on the ground for an hour given the high winds that battered London Heathrow.  That was our intended destination.  As a passenger, this was frustrating, but I know it’s a safe way of managing the large volumes of European air traffic.

Without a doubt, Brexit or no Brexit we have a far from perfect air transport systems in Europe.  Capacity is limited by the dated infrastructure we have in place.   Safety is assured by managing the system as a cooperative effort.  London Heathrow is a challenge given that such large numbers of international aircraft movements take place at a two-runway hub airport.

Since 2011, the European Union has had a Network Manager[1].  This is what was previously called the Central Flow Management Unit (CFMU) based at EUROCONTROL[2] in Brussels.  The Network Manager Operations Centre is a vital part of Europe’s Air Traffic Management (ATM) system.  If you want to peek at what’s happening there’s a public portal showing the current state of the system[3].

In some respects, Summer 2018 pushed the European aviation system to its limits and Summer 2019 promises to present even more challenges.  I cannot conceive of any situation where European ATM will not be of interest to the UK.  Indeed, there’s no indication of the withdrawal of the UK from EUROCONTROL.  Nice as this might sound, Brexit is going to have the impact of pulling the UK out of the major decision-making that that takes place within Europe.

Today, EU regulations determine operations, safety regulation and performance monitoring.  If Brexit goes ahead, the UK will no longer have a leading influence over these EU regulations.  People are starting to plan for how to manage the Summer of 2019.  You might want to think seriously about your holiday choices next year.  We all know what its like to be stranded at airports living out long delays.

News has come in on a matter of great interest about the almost mythical Article 50.  The European Court (ECJ) has sided with petitioners both *against* the European Council/Commission and *against* the UK government.  The UK is free to unilaterally revoke the notification of its intention to withdraw from the EU – Case C-621/18 Wightman #Brexit[4].

This does open an option to the UK.  With such deadlock amongst the politicians and a big campaign to bring about a #PeoplesVote that would seem the wise course of action to take.

[1] COMMISSION REGULATION (EU) No 677/2011 of 7 July 2011 laying down detailed rules for the implementation of air traffic management (ATM) network functions and amending Regulation (EU) No 691/2010.

[2] The European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL)

[3] https://www.public.nm.eurocontrol.int/PUBPORTAL/gateway/spec/index.html

 

[4] https://twitter.com/EUCourtPress/status/1072039706123210752?s=20

 

Brexit and Aviation 50

Just back from 4-days in Cologne.  It’s one of the best times of the year to be in the city.  The Christmas Markets are in full swing.  As we flew out of Heathrow the debate on the UK Parliamentary vote was running on.  As we flew back into Heathrow the same debate was going on with the same predicable ups and downs.  It’s a wonder that anything new can be found to be said.  Like a special industry to keep the media on its toes maybe perpetual motion isn’t an impossibility.

There will be a rally in London on Parliament Square this coming Tuesday, 11th to coincide with the Brexit vote.  The signs are that the vote will be lost.  Mrs May’s deal will fall.  From that moment on all becomes unpredictable although there are many who would tell you they know what will happen.

To concentrate minds 29 March gets ever nearer.  Action to rescind Article 50 could happen but who would make it happen?  A cliff edge Brexit, without a deal could happen but who would allow it?  Both the Economist and the Times leaders back a People’s Vote.  With the UK Parliament completely deadlocked the best option would be to put the question back to the people.

The Brexit Monopoly Board is full of traps.  Every shake of the dice is a risky manoeuvre.   There’s no get out of jail free card.   Yes, the cards can change your fortune, but a lot of luck is needed.

My observations from having a few days in Cologne are again full of mixed messages.  On the one hand, the almighty wheels of business as usual continue to turn.  On the other hand, signs of disaffection and disconnection are slowly growing.   Numerous Brits I’ve worked with over the years now have more than one passport.  A few are planning to return to the UK.   Most have given-up on hoping the whole Brexit fiasco will go away.

Domestic British obsessions do catch the news in Germany.  Like a Shakespearean tragedy unfolding in slow time but much as a Carnival side show unrelated to real events.  Yes, we all need each other in Europe but not so much as to total indulge one group or another.

Friday was International Civil Aviation Day.  Connecting people across the global.  Helping people move freely is one way to make a better world.  Aviation is a great example of successful human cooperation and effective global partnership.   The UK is home to many aerospace companies and leading research organisations.  The UK needs a place in Europe and a place in the world NOT one or the other.   A vague political declaration is no substitute for the Membership of the EU we (UK) has now.

I wonder what next Tuesday will bring for the UK?

If you are looking for light relief from the unending speculation and continuous news cycle, listen to the Dead Ringers Christmas Special on BBC Radio 4[1].

[1] https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b007gd85

Brexit and Aviation 49

One of the challenges with stopping Brexit is the oil tanker effect.  The machinery of the UK Government has been pointed in one direction for a couple of years.  Grinding away, preparing the steps, being buffeted left and right but heading in one direction – towards 29 March 2019.

What this has meant has changed numerous times as the machinations of the Conservative Party have shaped policy.  The ludicrous snap General Election didn’t help one little bit.  It took a divided nation and made it a more divided nation.  So much for the Prime Minister’s judgement.  Here we are in December 2018, just about ready for another pivotal moment on the rocky road.

The latest UK Government Minister to resign is Sam Gyimah @SamGyimah.  He’s the MP for East Surrey and local to me.  He has declared he will vote against the Government’s EU Withdrawal Agreement.  Having resigned as the Universities, Science, Research and Innovation Minister it will be interesting to see what his next moves are.  His resignation statement is worth a read[1].

Gyimah’s reasoning starts with the negotiations over Galileo, the EU’s Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS).  Back in May this year, the UK Government stated its unwavering commitment to European security meaning it should be able to continue to fully participate in #Galileo now and in the future.  The reality has become that the UK Government pulled out of negotiations on this key subject.  A failure.

Building a uniquely UK GNSS will be expensive.  It will take 20 years and have a big annual cost to keep it working.  All for what?

Back to the oil tanker that needs turning around, or at least stopping before it hits the rocks.  This analogy has a lot of millage in it given that the Brexit result could look much like a giant oil spill.  Damaging to all involved.  Costing a fortune to clean-up.  Living in the memory for a long time.

About UK Statutory Instruments (SIs), the draft Aviation Safety (Amendment etc.) (EU Exit) Regulations 2019 has been laid before the UK Parliament[2].  This SI uses powers in the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 to correct “deficiencies” in derived aviation safety legislation coming from the act of withdrawal.   The intention is here to ensure that the UK legal framework on aviation safety continues to function after the March exit day in the event of a No-Deal[3].  This is a lot of work coming from the UK Department of Transport.  To nationalise legislation, in many places the legal text is changed by ignoring: “at both Union level and national level”.

Gyimah is saying that post-Brexit: the UK will end up worse off, transformed from rule makers into rule takers.  I think he’s right.  It’s time to turn the oil tanker around.

 

[1] https://www.facebook.com/204388219715107/posts/1170464863107433/

 

[2] http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukdsi/2019/9780111175101/contents

 

[3] http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukdsi/2019/9780111175101/pdfs/ukdsiem_9780111175101_en.pdf