Tag: Brexit

Brexit & Aviation 55

This week, I flew EasyJet mid-week from Bristol to Glasgow and back.  On the flight back, I noticed that the AIRBUS aircraft we flew on was registered in Austria.  It must be one of the 130 aircraft listed as registered to easyJet Europe Airline GmbH[1].  Now, there’s no single EU aircraft registry but this is an aircraft that is registered in an EU Member State.

The trip got me thinking that such a flight may not be possible after Brexit day in March.  This was an internal flight within the UK (England to Scotland).  In the event of a No-Deal Brexit, the EU has made it clear that UK registered aircraft will not be authorised to make internal flights within the EU.  I presume that the reciprocal will be true.  Otherwise the UK will be giving away rights that it can not excercise in the EU.  Thus, no EU Member State registered aircraft will be authorised to make internal flights within the UK.

I also got to thinking; what will Scotland do in the longer term?  It’s highly likley that the Scotish nation will want to retain the benifits of EU membership.

On Tuesday next, the UK Parliament should be holding a meaningful vote on Prime Minister (PM) Theresa May’s EU withdrawal agreement.  There’s much speculation that British Members of Parliament (MPs) are positioning themselves for the vote to be lost by a large margin.  So, Tuesday, 15 January 2019 could go down in history as a momentous day for British politics.  The reason is clear.  The UK Government has put all its eggs in one basket.  In a crude attempt to apply pressure to MPs, this is seen by many as a Deal or No-Deal situation.  As the clock ticks, MPs voting down the Deal on the table, which may well be amended, is increasing the chance of a No-Deal Brexit.  There’s some strange talk of a “managed” No-Deal but, in fact, there’s no such thing on offer.   The real choice is a mess of a Brexit or No Brexit at all.

Again, the aviation industry[2] is making it clear that such a No-Deal Brexit outcome would be disastrous.  Several UK businesses are already kicking-in their No-Deal contingency plans.  This could mean a great deal of business moving out of the UK and into the EU.  The lost opportunity costs associated with all this muddle and uncertainty must be huge.  Stability is worth a great deal to investors and those who are building businesses across Europe.  Additionally we must remember that the UK maybe leaving the EU, but it is not leaving Europe nor can it.

The benefits of staying in the EU’s Internal Market for Aviation[3] are extremely clear.   It is my hope that a No-Brexit outcome is arrived at.  Parliament will need to explore all the options.  This would certainly be best for travellers, aviators and the industry that supports them in the whole of Europe and beyond.

[1] https://www.austrocontrol.at/en/aviation_agency/aircraft/aircraft_register/search_online

[2] https://www.adsgroup.org.uk/blog/brexit-myth-busting-a-managed-no-deal/

[3] https://ec.europa.eu/transport/modes/air/25years-eu-aviation_en

 

Brexit & Aviation 54

In these Blogs I’ve been writing about the UK’s exit from the European Union (EU) and its impact on most aspects of civil aviation.  The way we (UK) are heading now, on 29th March 2019 at midnight CET (23h00 UK time) the UK will leave the EU regardless of the situation pertaining at the time.

Fortunately, even in the so called: “No Deal” situation the European Commission (EC) has a Contingency Action Plan[1] and says that UK airlines will be able to operate flights between the UK and the EU under certain conditions.   The UK has offered similar pledges for EU airlines and that should ensure the continuation of flights to and from the UK[2].

So, what might a typical traveller need to do on the day after Brexit?  Here’s a few things to think about if you are travelling to the EU after 29 March 2019:

Check the date when your passport expires. The UK recommends that you have 6-months left on your passport on the date of arrival in an EU Member State.

In the event of a No Deal Brexit:

  • A UK registered European Health Insurance Card (EHIC) will no longer be valid. Check your travel insurance as it will need to be valid to access medical care when you are travelling in the EU;
  • A UK traveller wishing to drive in the EU will need to apply for the relevant International Driving Permit in addition to having a full UK driving licence and
  • A UK traveller driving their own vehicle within the EU will be required to obtain and carry a physical Green Card for your UK car insurance to be valid in the EU.

It’s as well to have some financial reserves too.  Since the EU’s internal market for aviation was born there has been a revolution in European air travel.  Flight now costs are around 16 times less than they did in 1992.  If the UK is no longer a full member of that internal market prices will rise.

If your banking provider makes any changes to your UK accounts or credit cards you will need to know.  The expectation is that basic banking services will continue to be widely avaiable.  At the same time just about all Terms and Conditions will change.

There’s little good news to start the New Year.  Without a formal Withdrawal Agreement (WA) accepted by all, there will be no transitional period providing legal certainly, during which a new relationship with the EU can be negotiated.  I am sure, travel will not stop but the inevitability of additional costs for industry will certainly be passed on to the UK traveller.

Just as in that great hippy song “Big Yellow Taxi”, we will all be singing: “Hey now, now. Don’t it always seem to go. That you don’t know what you got. Til its gone.”

Technically, it would be difficult but not impossible to extend the Article 50 period for longer than an additional 3-month period, to 2 July 2019.  Don’t bet on it happening.

[1] http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-18-6851_en.htm

[2] https://www.gov.uk/government/news/department-of-transport-responds-to-european-commission-contingency-action-plan

 

Crashing Britain

Listening to the renewal of Brexit hostilities there’s one side of the argument upping the anti and the other desperately downplaying.  Ture enough, those of us who have retained out sanity know that they can’t both be right.  A New Year has not brought new wisdom.

In general, the deep trenches of “bias” take a lot of effort to climb out of.  And that’s not just bias on one side or the other, that’s the general phenomena of bias.

As humans, here’s what we do.  In the first case there’s optimism bias.  I often see this in the write-ups of aviation accidents and incidents.

Generally, people overestimate their chances.  It’s often advantageous in that such an approach can make us work harder and see goals as achievable, come what may.  I know not everyone can be above average but who admits to being average?  Brexiters who say: No Deal – No Problem have this in buckets and spades.  Excessive optimism bias is a way to crash and it’s certainly not good if you are a compulsive gambler.

Next on the list is confirmation bias.  Our amazing human capacity to imagine what might happen next is a huge asset.  Unfortunately, there’s a tendency to establish a theory and then find facts, real of imaginary, to confirm that theory.  This is a major danger.  To avoid a crash, it’s often good to have a theory but then retain the willingness to question it.  When time is pressing it may not be so easy to question but question is best.  And if changed or new facts say do something different don’t throw them away for a matter of pride.

The next one is a thinking bias called the Dunning–Kruger effect.  This is not a popular one to talk about.  It’s when people to fail to recognise their own lack of ability.   Numerous general aviation accidents and incidents have this one at the root.  When tested competent students often underestimated their class rank, and the incompetent students overestimated theirs.

I might like to think that I could win an argument with the great statesmen and stateswomen of history, and point out the flaws in their thinking but in truth – No.  Well, my success rate would be low.  Radio talk shows feed on this effect by pitching callers against a well-seasoned politician.  It maybe entertaining but it does help to illuminate a problem.

How to stay safe?  Take an inventory of my own biases.  What sources do I use to come to a view?  Do I understand how my biases formed my view? Yes, that’s the one I speak out on.

Can we all do this and step back from the Brexit crash?  I don’t know.