EU – Page 14 – John Vincent

Change is Good

Let’s imagine two and a half years ago you had taken an interest in moving to a new house. Soundly and sensibly you got a survey done. The survey showed up that the house was not worth the asking price. Further inquiry showed that the original details were wrong and that the vendor had been less than honest. Even with all your doubts, the vendor and his agents applied pressure to get you to sign-up. The deal on the table was not a good one and the price is going up daily. Would you carry on regardless or would you stop and say: no thank you, I’m better off where I am?

That’s where we are with Brexit. Two and a half years of agonising debate and investigation but finally a decision must be made. The world looks quite different from that of two and a half years ago. People have come and gone. The world is that much more unstable, but the big problems, like climate change and poverty remain.

So, why is changing minds so difficult? I guess, it’s a human characteristic that none of us like to lose face. Stepping back and admitting that; maybe we were wrong two and a half years ago is never going to be easy. Our media is not helping. Write-ups that say there’s a 50-50 chance that Brexit may be stopped are phrased in negative terms. The reality is that for a huge part of the population that outcome would be entirely positive.

Prime Minister May’s deal does deliver an orderly termination of European Union membership but a noisy cabal of those who supported the “Leave” vote in 2016 do not accept this fact. It’s certain that they never will. On the one hand there’s the fact of leaving and on the other there’s a set of political slogans, images and rituals that some have attached to the whole process.

We now have a much worse division of opinion than we did the day after the referendum. Two political blocks who continue to promote “Leave” (and “Brexit”) disagree venously. Yet, bigger than either of these two blocks are those who continue to support a different option. I believe it’s impossible to resolve this political grid lock in less than 90 days.

A Country that can change its mind is a brave and courageous place. It has wisdom. The ability to consider, reflect and change is an admirable characteristic. It’s the action of a mature and strong liberal democracy. We have one of the worlds largest economic bloc on our doorstep. Our history is a European history. The cultural ties are deep.

At the time of the year when we look back but also look forward, we can say; I’d like to change for the better and rebuild. I’d like to make the most of our European Union membership. I’d like to be at the heart of Europe. Let’s vote.

Brexit & Aviation 53

Thanks to the entry into force of Regulation (EU) No 996/2010 on the investigation and prevention of accidents and incidents in civil aviation, there’s a European Network of Civil Aviation Safety Investigation Authorities (ENCASIA). This coordination group came together in early 2011, while I was at EASA at the receiving end of their Safety Recommendations.

There’s 90 days left until the Brexit countdown runs out on 29th March 2019[1]. Even in a so called “No Deal” Brexit, there’s a proposal for an EU Regulation to extend temporarily (for 9 months) the validity of certain aviation safety licences. But as far as I can see there’s nothing proposed in relation to Regulation (EU) No 996/2010.

ENCASIA works on improving the quality of air safety investigations and strengthening the independence of the national investigating authorities. In the past, there’s often been conflicts between judicial authorities and those tasked with independent technical investigations.

Safety investigation authorities vary greatly in size and experience across Europe. Two of the largest are the Bureau d’Enquêtes et d’Analyses pour la Sécurité de l’Aviation Civile[2] in France and the Air Accidents Investigation Branch in the UK[3].

Can we assume that Brexit of no Brexit these important aviation safety organisations will continue to work together? Let’s hope so. It’s essential that safety concerns that are Europe wide are addressed across Europe.

[1] https://interactive.news.sky.com/2017/brexit-countdown/

[2] https://www.bea.aero/no_cache/en/

[3] https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/air-accidents-investigation-branch

Brexit & Aviation 52

Brexit continues to be a damaging process that is divisive for the Nation and the Government. There’s now under 100 days left until the Brexit countdown runs out on 29th March 2019.

Edits and additions to the UK Government’s technical notices, to say to us all that a Brexit ‘No Deal’ is no longer an ‘unlikely’ outcome do little to reassure. Now, the European Commission (EC) has adopted measures that will avoid full interruption of air traffic between the EU and the UK in the event of No Deal. These measures are subject to the UK conferring equivalent rights to EU air carriers, as well as the UK ensuring fair competition. Proposal for a “No Deal” Regulation[1] cover one year long temporary provision of basic air services between the UK and the EU. UK airlines would no longer be allowed to land and transit in the EU[2]. The freedoms of the air are described in the ICAO Manual on the Regulation of International Air Transport (Doc 9626, Part 4).

Now that we have a Withdrawal Agreement (WA) on the table, British MPs need to give it their full consideration over the Christmas holidays. However, the indications remain that the WA will not be supported in the UK Parliment. Thus, we (UK) keep putting off the time when we can move on and look beyond, to future opportunities.

A safety net that gives only ‘basic connectivity’ is not a deal and it’s an enormous degrading of current citizens’ rights. Life as a “third country” will mean that many of the benefits we take for granted will go overnight.

Lots of costly duplication will start to creep into aviation activities. Now, the UK CAA has opened advanced applications for UK organisations wishing to seek a UK Design Organisation Approval (DOA) as part of their contingency planning.

Let’s be clear; a “No Deal” outcome, accidental or otherwise, is as a result of a choice. A choice made by a Prime Minister and a minority of Conservative politicians.

There’s a different choice possible. We do not have to give up the significant advantages of EU membership. That would maintain Britain’s good jobs and earning power, but it takes a change of view. It takes action in Parliament.

[1] http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-18-6851_en.htm

[2] https://blueswandaily.com/will-brexit-bite-for-airlines-brussels-no-deal-contingency-provides-safety-net-but-doesnt-rule-out-future-widespread-aviation-travel-and-trade-disruption/

Brexit and Aviation 51

On Friday last, we sat on the ground in Duesseldorf. Having boarded BA945 ahead of time, we sat waiting for the instruction to go. We sat on the ground for an hour given the high winds that battered London Heathrow. That was our intended destination. As a passenger, this was frustrating, but I know it’s a safe way of managing the large volumes of European air traffic.

Without a doubt, Brexit or no Brexit we have a far from perfect air transport systems in Europe. Capacity is limited by the dated infrastructure we have in place. Safety is assured by managing the system as a cooperative effort. London Heathrow is a challenge given that such large numbers of international aircraft movements take place at a two-runway hub airport.

Since 2011, the European Union has had a Network Manager[1]. This is what was previously called the Central Flow Management Unit (CFMU) based at EUROCONTROL[2] in Brussels. The Network Manager Operations Centre is a vital part of Europe’s Air Traffic Management (ATM) system. If you want to peek at what’s happening there’s a public portal showing the current state of the system[3].

In some respects, Summer 2018 pushed the European aviation system to its limits and Summer 2019 promises to present even more challenges. I cannot conceive of any situation where European ATM will not be of interest to the UK. Indeed, there’s no indication of the withdrawal of the UK from EUROCONTROL. Nice as this might sound, Brexit is going to have the impact of pulling the UK out of the major decision-making that that takes place within Europe.

Today, EU regulations determine operations, safety regulation and performance monitoring. If Brexit goes ahead, the UK will no longer have a leading influence over these EU regulations. People are starting to plan for how to manage the Summer of 2019. You might want to think seriously about your holiday choices next year. We all know what its like to be stranded at airports living out long delays.

News has come in on a matter of great interest about the almost mythical Article 50. The European Court (ECJ) has sided with petitioners both *against* the European Council/Commission and *against* the UK government. The UK is free to unilaterally revoke the notification of its intention to withdraw from the EU – Case C-621/18 Wightman #Brexit[4].

This does open an option to the UK. With such deadlock amongst the politicians and a big campaign to bring about a #PeoplesVote that would seem the wise course of action to take.

[1] COMMISSION REGULATION (EU) No 677/2011 of 7 July 2011 laying down detailed rules for the implementation of air traffic management (ATM) network functions and amending Regulation (EU) No 691/2010.

[2] The European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL)

[3] https://www.public.nm.eurocontrol.int/PUBPORTAL/gateway/spec/index.html

[4] https://twitter.com/EUCourtPress/status/1072039706123210752?s=20

Brexit and Aviation 50

Just back from 4-days in Cologne. It’s one of the best times of the year to be in the city. The Christmas Markets are in full swing. As we flew out of Heathrow the debate on the UK Parliamentary vote was running on. As we flew back into Heathrow the same debate was going on with the same predicable ups and downs. It’s a wonder that anything new can be found to be said. Like a special industry to keep the media on its toes maybe perpetual motion isn’t an impossibility.

There will be a rally in London on Parliament Square this coming Tuesday, 11th to coincide with the Brexit vote. The signs are that the vote will be lost. Mrs May’s deal will fall. From that moment on all becomes unpredictable although there are many who would tell you they know what will happen.

To concentrate minds 29 March gets ever nearer. Action to rescind Article 50 could happen but who would make it happen? A cliff edge Brexit, without a deal could happen but who would allow it? Both the Economist and the Times leaders back a People’s Vote. With the UK Parliament completely deadlocked the best option would be to put the question back to the people.

The Brexit Monopoly Board is full of traps. Every shake of the dice is a risky manoeuvre. There’s no get out of jail free card. Yes, the cards can change your fortune, but a lot of luck is needed.

My observations from having a few days in Cologne are again full of mixed messages. On the one hand, the almighty wheels of business as usual continue to turn. On the other hand, signs of disaffection and disconnection are slowly growing. Numerous Brits I’ve worked with over the years now have more than one passport. A few are planning to return to the UK. Most have given-up on hoping the whole Brexit fiasco will go away.

Domestic British obsessions do catch the news in Germany. Like a Shakespearean tragedy unfolding in slow time but much as a Carnival side show unrelated to real events. Yes, we all need each other in Europe but not so much as to total indulge one group or another.

Friday was International Civil Aviation Day. Connecting people across the global. Helping people move freely is one way to make a better world. Aviation is a great example of successful human cooperation and effective global partnership. The UK is home to many aerospace companies and leading research organisations. The UK needs a place in Europe and a place in the world NOT one or the other. A vague political declaration is no substitute for the Membership of the EU we (UK) has now.

I wonder what next Tuesday will bring for the UK?

If you are looking for light relief from the unending speculation and continuous news cycle, listen to the Dead Ringers Christmas Special on BBC Radio 4[1].

[1] https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b007gd85

Brexit and Aviation 49

One of the challenges with stopping Brexit is the oil tanker effect. The machinery of the UK Government has been pointed in one direction for a couple of years. Grinding away, preparing the steps, being buffeted left and right but heading in one direction – towards 29 March 2019.

What this has meant has changed numerous times as the machinations of the Conservative Party have shaped policy. The ludicrous snap General Election didn’t help one little bit. It took a divided nation and made it a more divided nation. So much for the Prime Minister’s judgement. Here we are in December 2018, just about ready for another pivotal moment on the rocky road.

The latest UK Government Minister to resign is Sam Gyimah @SamGyimah. He’s the MP for East Surrey and local to me. He has declared he will vote against the Government’s EU Withdrawal Agreement. Having resigned as the Universities, Science, Research and Innovation Minister it will be interesting to see what his next moves are. His resignation statement is worth a read[1].

Gyimah’s reasoning starts with the negotiations over Galileo, the EU’s Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS). Back in May this year, the UK Government stated its unwavering commitment to European security meaning it should be able to continue to fully participate in #Galileo now and in the future. The reality has become that the UK Government pulled out of negotiations on this key subject. A failure.

Building a uniquely UK GNSS will be expensive. It will take 20 years and have a big annual cost to keep it working. All for what?

Back to the oil tanker that needs turning around, or at least stopping before it hits the rocks. This analogy has a lot of millage in it given that the Brexit result could look much like a giant oil spill. Damaging to all involved. Costing a fortune to clean-up. Living in the memory for a long time.

About UK Statutory Instruments (SIs), the draft Aviation Safety (Amendment etc.) (EU Exit) Regulations 2019 has been laid before the UK Parliament[2]. This SI uses powers in the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 to correct “deficiencies” in derived aviation safety legislation coming from the act of withdrawal. The intention is here to ensure that the UK legal framework on aviation safety continues to function after the March exit day in the event of a No-Deal[3]. This is a lot of work coming from the UK Department of Transport. To nationalise legislation, in many places the legal text is changed by ignoring: “at both Union level and national level”.

Gyimah is saying that post-Brexit: the UK will end up worse off, transformed from rule makers into rule takers. I think he’s right. It’s time to turn the oil tanker around.

[1] https://www.facebook.com/204388219715107/posts/1170464863107433/

[2] http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukdsi/2019/9780111175101/contents

[3] http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukdsi/2019/9780111175101/pdfs/ukdsiem_9780111175101_en.pdf

Brexit and Aviation 48

The day has come. After many months, a draft agreement and political declaration are in the hands of the UK and EU. The term “deal” is being used to sum it all up. That might not be the best word considering that so much remains on a wish-list, but that word has come into common usage.

In the run-up to the UK’s exit from the EU on 29 March 2019, if it happens, there’s no end of work that must still be completed. There’s no doubt that if the “deal” is agreed there’s an enormous amount of Parliamentary work to be done passing the Statutory Instruments[1] needed to make it work in law.

Aviation needs a “modern stable regulatory framework” to support growth, says Henrik Hololei, Director General for Mobility & Transport, European Commission. Whichever side of the on-going arguments you stand this remains a sound statement. The future of aviation in the EU and its neighbouring countries, including the UK will be one of the major files handed over to the next Commission.

2019 is election year for the EU. We can expect a whole new European Parliament and Commission to be up and running as that year matures. The Brexit fall-out may land in new and different hands by the end of 2019. The overall topics for debate and political climate may have changed significantly durring Romania’s Presidency of the Council of the EU.

Maintaining a stable regulatory framework that allows air transport to flourish in the UK and EU may yet meet even more challenges that just at this moment. Turning the wish for a: Comprehensive Air Transport Agreement, covering market access and investment and aviation safety into reality has a long way to go. We must hope that, subject to all this turmoil that no one drops the ball. Aviation safety is far too valuable to be jeopardised by endless politically shenanigans.

There’s the expectation that the microsite[2] of the UK CAA will to be updated with information for the aviation and aerospace industries as the situation develops.

[1] https://www.hansardsociety.org.uk/blog/westminster-lens-brexit-statutory-instruments-dashboard

[2] https://info.caa.co.uk/euexit/

Brexit and Aviation 47

The “Draft Agreement on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from the European Union and the European Atomic Energy Community,” dated 14 November 2018 is now published.

Aviation gets one mention in the draft agreement “International Civil Aviation Organisation standards related to biometric identification.” In relation to Agencies, such as EASA the draft agreement says: “The institutions, bodies, offices and agencies of the Union shall continue to be competent for administrative procedures which were initiated before the end of the transition period …”.

So, it’s business as usual until the end of the proposed transition period. Naturally, that depends upon the draft agreement being passed into law. In fact, there are three options that are the most likely. One: enact this withdrawal agreement, two: reject the agreement and abandon Brexit or three: reject the agreement and crash out.

The first two options are practical and viable but the third is an utter catastrophe for all parties. There are just two ways to prevent disruption and to provide legal certainty to air transport and aerospace, at least for the short-term.

The hard fought, detailed, lengthy and binding Withdrawal Agreement only addresses the next few years. To accompany the agreement there is a political declaration on future EU-UK relations. In that document there is a high-level commitment to regulatory cooperation. There is a wish for a: Comprehensive Air Transport Agreement, covering market access and investment, aviation safety and security, Air Traffic Management and provisions to ensure open and fair competition.

Unfortunately, of all the debate and amassed documentation there isn’t much more than that simple statement. In other words, there’s some indication of the direction of travel but nothing on what that might that mean for the next decade. Today, the best deal remains the one the UK has as an EU Member State.

It’s true, that the EU-UK political declaration may still be expanded in the next few days. The political declaration could grow to 20 pages but that hangs in the balance. Contrast that with the over 500 pages of the Withdrawal Argreement. It seems odd that it has taken well over 2-years to get to this point.

In parallel, the European Commission is working with its Agencies. EASA is processing applications from UK organisations in preparation for the time when the UK will not be a Member State. In addition, it’s doing preparations for the worst-case scenario – No Deal

Clearly, based on the domestic political reaction, there is no guarantee what-so-ever the UK will ratify the Withdrawal Agreement by 29 March 2019. Parliament remains divided. Only a committed gambler would predict which way events will turn next.

Brexit and Aviation 46

It’s reported that, International Airlines Group (IAG), the owner of British Airways (BA), has approached the Spanish Government for help over the possibility of a No-Deal Brexit. They still seem confident that the EU and the UK will put an agreement in place that allows flights to continue even in a No Deal situation. That said, current rules mean the company must be over half EU owned and controlled to be considered “European”.

Today, IAG is the parent company of Aer Lingus, BA, Iberia and Vueling. It’s a Spanish registered company with shares traded on the London Stock Exchange and Spanish Stock Exchanges. Today, the corporate Head Quarters for IAG is in the UK. In Brexit and Aviation 23, I raised these issues but considering the airlines operating certificates rather than the ownership issue. If IAG are to comply with the EU ownership rules then, essentially it becomes a Spanish company. Now, I wonder if the UK Brexiters had that in mind in 2016?

Ownership arrangements do get complicated. For example, 25% of London Heathrow airport is owned by Ferrovial, S.A., a Spanish multinational company. London Gatwick airport is owned and managed by Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP) and a consortium of its co-investors. So, I’m guessing that Brexiters don’t concern themselves too much with ownership and control. It’s just not on their radar.

This is not a subject to ignore because despite liberalisation there are precise rules on ownership and control within EU legislation. These are important in the EU but not so much as a matter of regional protectionism as to ensure that there’s a level playing field for fair competition between companies.

Last week, the European Air Law Association (EALA) held their annual conference in Brussels. The EALA was created 30 years ago when the supranational European institutions, including the European Commission and the European Parliament, started to take policy and legal action in the field of air transport.

This year, their guest speaker was Director-General for Mobility and Transport, DG MOVE, Mr Henrik Hololei. He confirmed that in respect of Brexit, that no detailed negotiations had taken place between the EU and the UK on air services and they will not occur until there is an agreement on the Withdrawal Arrangements. Hololei noted that in the most extreme No Deal scenario, on the first day of Brexit there would be no flights between EU and UK. This is a possibility depending on how the negotiations proceed.

In the No Deal circumstances, the UK Government maybe confident that it would be able to negotiate new, or reinstate old bilateral agreements with EU Member States. The first of these might be possible, with good will on all sides but the second is just not possible.

The critical date of 29 March 2019 is approaching fast. Jo Johnson has resigned as a Transport Minister, saying the country is: “barrelling towards an incoherent Brexit” and calling for another referendum. Crunch time is here.

Brexit and Aviation 45

Ah the persistent and unpredictable ups and downs of Brexit. One political lesson to be learned from this dreadful mess is that a powerful slogan pitched at an opportune moment on fertile ground can have a big impact. “Take back control” means a hundred and one things to millions of people nevertheless those three words resonated on 23^rd June 2016. In Europe, we have spent 40 years taking down barriers. This move has dramatically increased opportunity and prosperity for the majority but created an insecurity amongst some groups. Control to them ment putting barriers back up.

In aviation, we recently celebrated 25 years of European liberalisation. It’s only because of open markets that we now have one billion passengers flying. We have high growth in a mature market which is globally unusual. If we return to nationalism dominating ownership and control of organisations it’s inevitable prices will rise, and growth will be impaired. Protectionism is a false God.

There’s no doubt that Europe has major infrastructure challenges. The capacity and quality of our transport systems is inadequate. In European aviation there’s strong common interests. Lines on the map may work on the ground but in the air the current arrangements make little sense. To solve these problems closer ties are needed not looser ones. Closer ties are needed if we are to continue to prosper from international tourism. In 2017, Europe remained the top visited region with more than 671 million tourist arrivals.

Close cooperation in safety and security essential. Facing these critical challenges alone is not viable. The only way to take control and have a real influence on the future is to cooperate. One of the elements of European cooperation that is assumed to continue regardless of Brexit is the European Union’s Single European Sky (SES) programme. Functional Airspace Blocks (FABs)[1] are a key tool of the EU’s SES programme, aiming to help reduce the fragmentation of air navigation services. The UK/Ireland FAB aims to contribute to meeting key performance targets on safety, cost efficiency, capacity/delay and the environment. Surely that stays?

The noisy voices that say the UK Government should sever all ties with the EU maybe don’t realise how that suggestion is extremely foolish. Let’s hope the instability caused but the Brexit will be viewed in 25 years’ time as a temporary phenomenon.

[1] https://www.ukirelandfab.eu/about/