Pitfalls of Messaging

Listening to a Government minister bleat on the radio this morning, I do wonder how they ever became a person of influence. It’s as if the elevation to Westminster has wiped all their political sensibilities and replaced brain cells with wet putty.

The general theme is that this UK Labour Government has got to get its act together. It seems obvious to say. However, as they plod on talking of aims and ambitions the trend of public opinion is shifting against them with potentially dire consequences. The sad reality is that this Labour team has only been in power for a little over a year. Although they are really struggling, in our heart of hearts, most of us know that they are nowhere near as pathetically appalling as the past Conservative rabble of May, Johnson and Truss.

Here’s something that I don’t thinks works. It’s trying to scare supporters, and the public by saying repeatedly that if we don’t win you over the evil ones will grab power. In this case it’s the spectre of the Reform party extremists. It’s not a return of the Conservatives. They are going down their own freshly dug rabbit hole never to be seen again.

It’s almost to admit that – we (Labour) are pathetic but those who could come next are even more pathetic and dreadful with it. That approach doesn’t win an argument. Maybe it does scare a cohort of political activities to deliver one or two more leaflets. It doesn’t make, as was once said, the man or woman on the Clapham omnibus feel any better.

To me this morning’s Labour minister sounds like they are saying: sod it, this is harder than I thought it would be, but don’t you dare blame me. If you do blame me then monsters will devour the land and there will never be another chance to make the world a better place.

Let’s just say, for good measure there are no Elysian fields where every day the British tabloid newspapers sing the praise of a Labour government. Where cuddly commentators heap praise on Government’s achievements. Where opposition politicians have nothing to say because they are stunned into silence. Contentment sweeps across the land.

For me one of Labour’s most stupid lines is that there are certain subjects that can’t be mentioned or at least mentioned as if something was going to be done. That these subjects merely fuel the opposition and although we (Labour) may have strong feelings about these subjects we must be silent and non-committal.

Talking about Brexit for more than a minute, and the harm that it has done the country, is too dangerous. It’s like giving the Reform party dog a bone. As if right-wing extremists wouldn’t do what they do regardless of any bones, thrown or otherwise. They will do what they do.

The Labour party comes across as with the same caution that they had in the run-up to the last UK General Election. It has been described as carrying a valuable Ming vase. So scared of dropping this metaphoric vase that extreme caution dictates every move. Constantly looking over their shoulder anticipating an avalanche that might consume any possible success. A kind of neurotic sterility that’s as attractive as grey paint on a grey wall on a grey day.

There was a time when I joked about former UK Prime Minister (PM) John Major’s attempts at regain public support. His wooden soap box in the streets. His slogan – back to basics. He was living under a shadow. Maybe his timing was poor. Maybe for each political idea there’s a time and place.

That standing and talking honestly on a tatty soap box, that human touch is perhaps what the current PM needs. Can he do it?

Engaging the 70%

A little analysis goes a long way. When that analysis chimes with what I observe, then all the better. Not that just because I agree with something that it therefore makes it beyond question. No, what’s satisfying here is to see that overlap on the Venn diagram of thoughts.

In an entirely off the cuff remark I said that if the major, and not so major, UK political parties all go off hunting for the votes of about 30% of the population, then there’s a huge opportunity for someone to address the 70%.

The UK political conference season is in full swing. Four political parties have completed their annual get together. Spent time agonising over their next moves. Damming and praising in equal measure both of rising and falling stars. Trying to avoid the media instinct to go for the live on-air gotcha moment. Being seen when the spotlight is turned on.

Back to my 70 / 30 relationship. This one strikes a bell for me having been a fan of the Pareto principle. That’s often called the 80 /20 rule.

For example, a lot of work may need to be done but it’s often only about 20% of that work that makes a difference, in certain situations. I could campaign over a wide area, without focus, and find that most of my effort had been wasted. Identifying the most fruitful areas to campaign, namely the 20%, might just as likely result in a win but with a greatly reduced effort.

National opinion polls can be deceptive. However, in the absence of real elections they are what people turn to get an indication of what’s going on – now. Today’s opinion polls have politicians spooked[1]. What the meaning of the Reform Party hovering at 30% is an open question.

Is it just like the days of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) in 1980s? A strong move for change that resulted in a flash in the pan. Well, it did open the door for Tony Blair and Co, years later.

Back to my 70 / 30 relationship. Labour, Conservatives and Reform all see this 30% voting intention. It hardly matters if it’s real. They are attracted to it like a moth to a lamp. There’re both data and a perception of who the 30% might be. Suddenly their importance is magnified out of all proportion. Phrase like “hard working people” are banded around. Classifications are sought to move away from past stereotypes like “white van man.”

I read Ben Ansell’s article[2]. I think he’s right. An enormous number of political campaigners fit into what can be called the Professional Managerial Class (PMC). Lots of people aspire to be of the PMC or think they are when they are not. Why do the two biggest political parties, Labour and Conservatives appear to dislike their activists and members so much?

Back to my 70 / 30 relationship. There is an enormous opportunity here for the Liberal Democrats. Not so much the Greens or nationalists. Just by speaking to the 70%. Just by addressing the issue that concern the 70%. Just signing up the 70%.

Not so much the vital few, more the vital many. Parliament could be a very different place in four years’ time.


[1] https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/

[2] https://substack.com/@benansell

Revisiting Brexit: Lessons

In life partnership is key. Most of us have no desire to live as a hermit. The dull confines of a hermitage are best left to a small few. That extends to communities as well. It’s rare for societies to live in isolation and avoiding relationships with others. People come together when they share values. So, it has been in Europe in the post-war era.

Relative to the astronomical losses that the whole UK accumulated because of Brexit, the gains of the latest European Union (EU) – UK deal are modest. The positive take, from Monday, is the direction of travel. Cool heads have prevailed, and a new deal of mutual benefit to both parties has been agreed. There’s more detail to follow as might be expected.

Unsurprisingly, those who failed miserably over the last decade are now carping bitterly[1]. Remember Johnson, who as UK Prime Minister (PM) had a large parliamentary majority that he threw away. His incompetent administration sealed an extremely bad deal.

The years following the 2016 referendum have been wasted years. Tedious nonsense about Brexit benefits have echoed through those years without anything good arising. Brexit “freedoms” are a metaphor for acting foolishly and without any relation to prevailing facts.

Last July, the British electorate said “no” to the parade of Conservative Party catastrophes[2]. The UK decided to go in a different direction. It was the Labour Party that toped the poll. Lib Dems and Greens doing well too. Since the General Election, and since the beginning of the year, the ebb and flow of global events has been truly turbulent. In historic terms, when UK PM Harold Macmillan was asked what the biggest challenge for a statesperson was, he replied: “Events, dear boy, events”[3]. Seems he was right.

Starmer is a fascinating character. Not the characteristic statement of a lifelong liberal, like me. The tool makers son, who schooled in Reigate, to become a top lawyer, climbed the slippery pole of pollical life, to become PM. Along the way he’s done what’s most typical of successful British politicians. That is, he’s changed his mind and allegiances along the way. Going from Labour Party leader to PM in 4-years is quite an achievement.

I don’t have to agree with the PM. In fact, as far as his priorities in government, I don’t agree with the PM a lot. Although, I’ve personalised these words, I wish to take due care. I speak only of him as PM. I’ve never met him. So, let’s focus on his role.

An EU-UK Brexit “reset” was inevitable. If it didn’t happen now, it would have happened eventually. Why would both global trading partners persist with a lose-lose situation? Dealing with serious national issues is a PM’s job. It’s not to avoid or obfuscate. Here Starmer is praiseworthy. Instead of struggling on as if nothing could be done, he’s acted.

What I dislike is the mindless bile that emerges in the conservative Press and in dark corners of social media. Swilling around with ever more hostile adjectives, it’s as if all sense has been lost by part of society. By all means express unhappiness if the cherished beliefs of Brexit are being contested. Everyone has a right to criticise. Please do it in a civilised manner.

What’s foolish is the leader of the Conservative Party who has jumped on the pessimist’s bandwagon. Why do they persist in talking Britain down? Gloomy and unattractive it’s no wonder their poll ratings are plunging. Instead of speaking on Europe, with eloquent and knowledgeable thoughtfulness, we get a diatribe of prejudice and backward thinking. Sad indeed.


[1] Read the Daily Telegraph, The Mail or Express. Newspapers in name only.

[2] https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-10009/CBP-10009.pdf

[3] Harold Macmillan’s time as PM (1957-1963) was marked by major events, including the Suez Crisis.

Myths vs. Reality

We live in a world of contradictions. What am I thanking about? The current febrile immigration debate has all the hallmarks of magical thinking. Here we are surrounded by water, living in an economically active favourable part of the world and yet public concern is directed at “others”.

I’ve no problem with the current British Government berating the past Government for not fixing a problem. It’s normal for a governing party in the first couple of years of their term of office to point the finger of blame. It’s easy. Painting a picture of past failure makes the road ahead clearer. It’s easier to start from a point of low expectations.

However, it seems it’s not the resurgence of the Conservative Party that the Labour Party are concerned about. Today, such a prospect would be like the reincarnation of a squirrel that had been run-over by a 42-ton truck driven by the electorate.

The announcement of the day is setting an ambition to squeeze immigration. Recent local elections have shown that this banner flies well with those who vote in local elections. Because the opinion polls give bizarre indications too, the questionable assumption is that if a General Election was called by an irrational Prime Minister there’d be a surge in far right-wing voting.

We have new kids on the block. They are not at all new even if the have a new name. It’s an Orwellian name. Because an ultra-conservative party isn’t in the business of newness as much as they are stirring up ancient antagonism.

Anyway, the Reform Party are the current snake oil salesman selling their easy solutions to difficult problems. They were once named; Referendum, UKIP and Brexit Party. All proponents of magical thinking and with a poor track record.

The story goes like this. Stop overseas immigration and make the hordes of economically inactive people of Britan take-up the vacancies that would result. When Reform voters hear this narrative, they don’t think it applies to them. They believe there’s a mythical group of lazy people who need to be forced back to work and off overly generous State benefits.

In this public debate it’s as well to look at the numbers[1]. Reform voters are predominantly of 50-years and older and the economically inactive are predominantly 50-years and over[2]. Thus, I say, we live in a world of contradictions.

COVID did see a large number of people take, or be forced into early retirement. Those who have experienced a lifetime of their terms and conditions of employment being degraded took the opportunity to do something else. Often that included voluntary work or caring roles. Reform have concocted plans to pressure people back into conventional employment. These plans are uncosted and not cheap. Lots of government funded incentives and training, for example. In the real world, funding must come from somewhere. That’s likely to be from the privatisation of health services and cancelled benefits. In this scenario don’t expect to get a state pension until well past 70 years


[1] https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN07119/SN07119.pdf

[2] https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/economic-labour-market-status-of-individuals-aged-50-and-over-trends-over-time-september-2023/economic-labour-market-status-of-individuals-aged-50-and-over-trends-over-time-september-2023

Pragmatism in British Politics

Pragmatism has long been a part of British life. Idealism too but to a lesser extent. That said, the shelves of literary works probably tip in the balance of idealism. There’s always an “insightful” quote to pull of the shelf and plonk into a speech or scribblings like this.

There’s a comfort in putting important decisions down to known facts and up-to-date realities. This way of working tends to favour short-term action based on weighing-up the here and now. What’s best for us where we stand at this moment? How much money have we got?

If you are an ardent socialist or committed liberal or dyed-in-the-wool right-winger, then pragmatism can make your flesh crawl. It leads to the question – what do you really believe in? Intellectual prowess is challenged by a call to make it up as we go along.

Pragmatism encourages hypocrisy. Now, that might be phrased as an uncomfortable negative. The truth is that no successful organisation has ever escaped a great deal of honest hypocrisy. Positions on even the most hard-fought issues do change. That’s not a negative. Just a couple of minutes surveying the history of the last half century, more than proves the case.

So, when I hear the UK Prime Minister (PM) talk of “ruthless pragmatism” I do wince a bit. It’s not that pragmatism per-se is an evil. No way. Mere survival in any political landscape and someone must react to the here and now in a way that doesn’t sink the ship.

PM Keir Starmer talking on Europe[1] is like listening to a rich Victorian woman having on extremely tight underwear. There’s no way she can loosen it in public. Her peers would disown her. When no one is looking an immense sense of relief can be gained in shedding the constraining garments. Behind closed doors the ridiculous restraints are shed.

Frankly, UK opposition to joining youth mobility schemes[2] in Europe is a stupid as stupid can get. I mean stupid times a billion. Now, some madcap idealists might be scared that British youth might, if taught early, be influenced in ways that would last throughout their lives. Such would be their indoctrination that eventual the push on the UK to join to European Union (EU) would be overwhelming.

There’s another word beginning with “p”. Take pragmatism and replace it with paranoia. The later seems to be fashionable just now. Forget the idealist approach where at least views tend to be based on a plausible creed. Paranoia is such that no previous experience is necessary. It’s all-over social media and more and more conventional media. Pragmatism is met with disbelief. So, is it wise for Keir Starmer to make that word a number one headliner?

A philosophical political pragmatism has been long practiced in the UK. I don’t see that stopping anytime soon. But what’s to be gained by headlining it? Not a lot I’d say. In fact, it gives ammunition to the light blue swivel-eyed loons[3].


[1] https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/editorials/keir-starmer-brexit-reset-europe-b2692118.html

[2] https://lordslibrary.parliament.uk/youth-mobility-schemes/

[3] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/swivelgate-david-cameron-goes-to-war-with-the-press-over-swiveleyed-loons-slur-8622277.html