Elections – John Vincent

Upbeat

I don’t like to say it. I will. The campaign for the next UK General Election (GE) has started.

That’s not to say that it didn’t start on Thursday, 4 July 2024. Sorry about the double negative. The Labour Party won a landslide victory as the Conservative Party vote collapsed just over 2-years ago. The electorate had finally had enough of 14-years of Conservative-led government.

Naturally, I wonder if it’s the case that government’s lose elections rather than opposition parties win them. There was a general mood in 2024 that the government had to go. I believe, it wasn’t so much a distaste for the Prime Minister (PM) of the day.

Part of the Conservative collapse was a surge in Liberal Democrat support. Parliamentary seats that had been “blue” for decades fell like nine pins.

Between a dissolution of parliament and polling day there can be less than 3-months. The process doesn’t have to be that speedy. However, PM’s who choose to go early often want to strike while the iron is hot. In terms of windows of opportunity, there’s a lot to be said for elections early in the year. Before the summer heat takes hold and on or after the local elections in early May each year. Winter elections are rarely preferred given the dark evenings and likelihood of poor weather.

So, that puts May-July 2027 and May-July 2028 in the frame. No PM can wish for the prospect of going right up against the wire in 2029. It can seem an act of desperation. Opposition parties would capitalise on that position as a sign of weakness.

Since we have a different Labour PM from the one who won on 2024, it seems reasonable that he would want to have a mandate to govern of his own. A renewed agenda, a new manifesto.

So, is the UK no more than 8 months, or so, away from a GE? Frankly, I don’t know. Many of the 650 members of the House of Commons elected in 2024 are still getting their feet under that table. Working out what the job of an MP is all about. I can’t imagine that they will be pushing the PM to throw caution to the wind. That said, if the main opposition parties remain struggling to find their feet, and haven’t organised themselves for a national election, then the door is open for the governing party to push through.

Would a PM calling an early election be punished by the electorate? Feed-up with all the instability of recent years. Or has volatility become such a part of the UK’s political landscape that no one will bat an eyelid. Just another roll of the dice.

Whether I like it or not, the UK has become more presidential. The personality of the PM is a factor in play. In not many of the electorate will be deeply engaged in reading every line of a new party manifesto.

In that popular political game, the national press like to build people up only to knock them down and do that as many times as it commands attention (clicks). The fate of Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer is a case in point. I couldn’t describe either of them as bad men. Certainly not egotists, idiots, or fools. Social media postings did that in abundance.

In this pseudo-presidential system, which has evolved in the UK, the popularists politicians have an advantage. Their formula is to use a megaphone to magnify prejudices and grievances. Can that onslaught be countered by the forces of hopefulness, openness, and positiveness? It’s a challenge to Liberals and Progressives who embrace an upbeat vision. Possible. I do remember the 1990s slogan – things can only get better. I wonder if they can in this decade.

As I said in [insert conference venue]

It’s Autumn. This morning, my garden is getting some desperately needed rain. On the News, stories are of the Conference season ending. That’s the part of the year when UK political parties gather their members and supporters at venues up and down the country. Conference rooms buzz and hotel bars sell out of snacks (and beer). Several themes keep popping up. These themes are regardless of the political party or their philosophy. They fit nicely into speeches. They get a hearty round of applause. It’s not that 2026 is different from other years. What’s remarkable is that it should be different.

The three recurrent popular themes I have in mind are:

Offer of give aways or a policy announcement focused on potential supporters.
Majoring on the unique powers one party has, as opposed to others.
An announcement that’s magical thinking dressed up as seriousness.

The first is about planning for future elections. It’s no good expecting voters to flock to a party unless the members and supporters of that party are lined up ready to go. Door-stepping, leaflet deliveries, donations, local meetings all depend on voluntary engagement. Big money can shift the dial by paying campaigners to do some groundwork. There’s no substitute for local people doing their best in every constituency. Whatever the financial situation.

Second. Answering the question of – why vote for us? There must be a USP. This is often more to do with personal belief than practical reality. Wrapped up in a projection of values, there must be a specialness that motivates people. It can be irrational, unrealistic, and colourful rhetoric.

Say, Conservatives cut taxes. Although history shows that they don’t. Labour protects workers. Only that they often cosy up to big business when in power. Liberals herald freedom and equality. Only to agonise over both, perpetually. Greens are ambassadors for the planet. Only to see their ill-considered efforts backfire. Reform is businesslike. Only that every week there’s resignations and scandals.

Third. To capture the national News cycle at least one new announcement must make a splash. This eye-catching commitment or instant policy may be forgotten in just a few of days. For example, the Conservatives “iron dome” is a godsend for newspaper cartoonists. Next general election the proposal will be locked away in a cupboard.

I don’t want you to think that the list above is a grumpy old man being too cynical. There’s a political legacy here that is incredibly difficult to shift. I can report, contrary to business as usual, there are developments this year. Perhaps another list of three will help.

Firstly, the UK political landscape is unusual. There are five national parties vying for the public’s attention. All five parties have a chance of making breakthroughs. All five party leaders are smiling about their own prospects.

Second. Huge issues leave all politicians scratching their heads. Stumped. Rapidly advancing technology and its impact on society and the workforce of the future remain a minority interests. Big answers to big questions are not forthcoming.

Third. Turbulence experienced every day, whether it be volatile world affairs, climatic changes or the rising cost of living seems to have politicians clutching at straws. Unable to show it but all to conscious of the unpredictability of the electorate. The impact of events.

We live in interesting times.

Two worlds

So, Hogarth’s print of Gin Lane[1] is revived as a template for UK Conservative Party policy. It’s a classical appeal to class prejudice. In their eyes there are the deserving and undeserving poor. And it’s easy to spot the difference.

A lower class of people have a long list of vices whist another has fortitude in the face of hardship. One drinks, gambles and brawls in the streets whilst the other will do a hard day’s work for a penny and not complain. To top it all the Conservative Party’s rush to travel back 275 years isn’t based on any principles or in-depth study. It’s merely because they are being politically out paced by the Reform Party.

UK politics is peculiar in so many respects. It may be less surprising when considering the annals of history of these islands.

Hogarth didn’t castigate those who drank alcohol as being the ultimate sinners. He drew a positive picture of those who drank beer[2]. Putting that beverage at the heart of an industrious and harmonious society.

As if the mark his place as the polar opposite to the right-wing hustle above, UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham is reported to be wanting to lift the drinking ban at football matches. Hooliganism was once the blight of English football. That brought about a ban on drinking alcohol in the stands at football matches. Now, 40-years on those concerns are faded.

In a popular move, it has been pointed out that drinking beer at a massive rock concert in a football stadium is treated entirely different from a match day gathering.

Here’s two sides of an English coin. Both with deep roots in our history. One to do with ingrained prejudices and the other to do with freedom and liberty. Both with an eye to future electoral popularity.

I expect there’s a cascade of draft proposals to introduce or scrap measures ready to flow out of policy makers lap-tops over the next couple of years. Differentiation is a key motivator. The struggle to stay in the top tier of pollical relevance continues. At the same time a sense of general discontent rumbles away.

Political competition is good, for the most part. Where it falls down is the attention it takes away from solving real problems by practical means. Hogarth’s prints can be interpreted as provoking thought about how divisive opposites can be. The truth being somewhere in the middle.

As discontent rumbles away it seems sad that politicians are running away from the pragmatic aspects of problem solving. Yes, effective governance can be dull. It can take time. It doesn’t always capture headlines. But what is it we really want? A good side show or a better society?

[1] https://www.royalacademy.org.uk/art-artists/work-of-art/gin-lane-1

[2] https://www.royalacademy.org.uk/art-artists/work-of-art/beer-street-1

Money vs. Integrity in Elections

Money and politics. There’s a combination that goes together like clouds and rain. It’s difficult to conceive of one without the other. Money doesn’t guarantee success, but it does tip the balance in the favour of those who have it. If a political party is out of sync with the voters, then piling on the pounds will barely tip the scales. Same is true if a candidate’s credibility is in the pan. What money does in the run up to elections is summed up in three points.

One. It is used to influence the climate of opinion. Journalists are a fickle bunch. Raining issues down on them and pushing hard gets lots of coverage. Having a team of fresh thinkers drafting speeches and doing research (hard graft) means arguments can be placed for maximum impact. Volunteers can be superb. Trouble is there’s never enough of them to go around.

Two. Professionalising campaigns. British politics, at a local level, is renowned for its amateurism. In so many ways that’s a wonderful situation. Petty reveries, few ancient but dedicated leafleteers, committee rooms with dry rot, out of date records of voting intentions, a dream, never fulfilled, that a bigwig’s visit is just around the corner, all that and more. Money does afford the recruitment of motivated campaign managers and organisers who know how to get a message out and follow-up on voters’ concerns.

Three. Pure swagger. Saying that a new candidate will never win here, is not from around here or is an accidental choice of a struggling local committee, they can all be pushed aside. Money allows even the most desperate, disorganised, dishevelled individual to be bigged-up. Confident candidates, with adoring supporters run the full distance, whatever the inevitable knocks. Money is great for maintaining momentum and papering over the cracks.

It’s interesting to note that none of the above means that a constituency gets a better Members of Parliament at the end of the process. However, if all the candidates on the ballot have access to some of the above then local voters do get a wider choice.

On the basis that no political party will ever win all the seats in the House of Commons, targeting has become the number one strategy. Only expend resources where they may best produce positive results. That can be 300-400 parliamentary constituencies, all with their idiosyncratic issues and 70,000 voters poised to put a cross in a box. A third of them will not bother with the entire process.

So, what’s the problem with money? Well, that depends what you hold in your heart about liberal democracy. Afterall the ideals of democracy are played out in a fraction of the 200 or so, sovereign countries across the globe.

My view is that all citizens should be eligible to put themselves forward for election to a political post. The pool should be as wide as possible. Naturally, there are a few exceptions, jail being one of the more notable. In standing for election there should be a reasonable level playing field. Ideally, it’s effort, ideas and talent that should win the day. Not piles of cash or undue influence.

For the voters, it’s come as you are. I lament when hearing of candidates trying to change minds on the doorstep with nothing but a metaphorical pea shooter and tendency to take the moral high ground. There are difficult issues to address. Where vast amounts of money can be destructive is where they used to shift the climate of opinion onto subject that are far away from the ones that really count. The major topics of education, health, employment, tax, and spending should never be marginalised. I’d even add transport to that list.

Vast sums thrown about by wealthy people distort that level playing field. That’s not right.

Political Farce: Clacton’s By-Election

Solar eclipse, Perseid meteor shower and planets in alignment happening at the same time, it could be an omen. Well, maybe not. A by-election has just taken place in an English seaside town. Not exactly a ripple in the fabric of space-time.

A Member of Parliament (MP) who was under an intense spotlight for alleged misbehaviours, decided to step-down from the Parliamentary seat he had won at the last General Election. Then he decided to stand for re-election in a by-election that was called after his resignation.

Yes, political acts like this could go on at infinitum. It’s like that classic picture of a snake eating its own tail. In the event, the larger political parties in the UK looked at this strange situation and concluded that standing a candidate in this by-election would only add to the media show that the former MP probably wished to promote.

Now, you could say that this choice of standing aside was potentially disrespectful to the electorate in this English constituency. There’s a case for that political argument, if it wasn’t for the primary cause of the by-election in the first place.

The political complexion of this seaside Parliamentary constituency is well known. It sits in an area where the British political right often does exceedingly well. The underlying reasons for this fact are strange to me. Years of voting for right-wing candidates never seems to improve the lot of the constituents of that part of the world. But vote that way they do.

Anyway, whatever the tactical political play the cards fell the way that the former MP wanted. Grumbling about the “establishment” political parties shunning him is not a new platform, even if the results of the byelection give him an opportunity to say so.

There’re several takeaways from this strange episode.

One. Imagine doing this and still claiming to be a potentially good manager the economy. The cost of putting on a by-election of choice is not trivial. Local authority bank accounts are not briming with surplus cash.

Two. Disrespect for the electorate cuts both ways. Having a job, giving up a job, and then taking up the same job again is doing nothing to improve life of people in that part of the country. In fact, lot of people all over Britain may now have a less than favourable view.

Three. The “new” MP remains in jeopardy. The House of Commons Standards Committee investigation continues, and so another byelection is a real prospect. If the outcome of the investigation is suspension for ten or more sitting days, a recall is triggered.

Four. The Reform Party has lost even more of its reputation and spent much money campaigning against a man who wears a bin on his head. Add to that, Binface will have secured his reputation as the number one alternative (comic) candidate in future elections.

Five. The argument that this episode was a stunt aimed at distracting people from other matters will not die because of the results of the by-election. Yes, a humiliating electoral defeat was avoided only next time the process may not be so simple.

Clacton’s by-election day will get written-up in the book that nerdy electoral fanatics keep on a dusty shelf. A political tactic of delaying what some people say is inevitably has a point but it’s immensely wasteful and does nothing whatsoever to address most people’s cost-of-living concerns of the moment.

Public and Private Life

What’s public and what’s private? There was a mythical age of the past when the dividing line between these two was self-evident and sacrosanct. Wholy respected by every member of society. A time when an Englishman’s home was his castle. Anything that happened within it’s walls was not for prying eyes or journalistic speculation. Everyone knew their place.

Naturally, this is utter nonsense. At least described in the way I’ve put it. Times change. Those immortal two words. So, the line between what’s public and what’s private has wobbled around over the centuries. I’m not, as you might expect, saying that nothing has changed over time because a hell of a lot has changed. Now, there are factors that make the public life different from past decades. Themes run through the ages along with unyielding change.

It’s very much in the News now. The impression given is that the act of standing-up in public has risks that can be high. Not so much the traditional risks of humiliation, being ostracised or suffering abject failure but real risks to life, in a physical sense.

It would be ridiculous to say that these are more violent times. When I look out of my kitchen window, I am reminded of the English Civil War[1]. Father and son, brothers, uncles, and cousins fought on opposite sides with fatal consequences. The ruined castle on the hill to my North is a monument to that terrible bloody conflict. In the lifetime of my parents the bombs fell from the sky on innocent civilians in this land, as they do in Ukraine to this day.

The tendency to think that we are a much more civilised society in the 21^st Century is a liberal and progressive notion. We are better fed and read. There are greater comforts and the four horsemen of the apocalypse are kept at arm’s length. Not disappeared but kept in check. Although the recent experience of COVID did unsettle everyone for a while.

What we do cherish. I hope we cherish, in this country. Is the relative freedom of speech that allows debate to be conducted in public. I use the word relative because the absolutists, who have an anything goes attitude, are not what I mean. Fundamentalist often ride with the four horsemen. Words do matter.

I’m straying from my point. There’s great merit in protecting public life. In matters that are of fundamental importance individuals must be free to stand-up and say their piece. Stifling debate is like putting the heat on a pressure cooker without a safety valve.

I’ve always been struck by the civility of most people. That’s what I’ve found when knocking on doors during political campaigns of one form or another. There’s a core of decency at all levels of society. Now and then, that thread is broken. It does take a lot to paint a different picture. That’s where the proliferation of social media has changed the dynamic.

The printing press was not an evil invention. That didn’t stop it being used for evil ends. The same with social media. Printed media is subject to regulation. A system of regulation that has developed over decades. That doesn’t stop a wide range of views being expressed. The fertiliser of public life. Similar boundaries are set for broadcast media. This is civilisation.

To date, social media is the wild west. It’s become essential to public life. At the same time, it’s a grave danger to public life. When it’s used to stir-up passions that lead to violence the danger is self-evident. Social media is not sacrosanct. Regulation is essential.

[1] https://www.english-heritage.org.uk/learn/histories/the-english-civil-wars-history-and-stories/

A New Era of Disruption

Where is it all going? Now, there’s a question to ask. Through the media pages there’s the signals of unprecedented change. It’s not as if we are sailing through smooth air, on a clam Sunday afternoon. No, it’s turbulence all the way.

Disruptors are getting the headlines. They don’t have to be clever. They don’t have to be honest. I’m expecting a headline along the lines of: “Everything you knew about spiders is wrong. They are from Alpha Centauri”. It’s only a matter of time. 4.3 light-years away is nothing, after all. Elon Musk will be there at the drop of a hat. Technology permitting.

My prediction maybe a bit off the wall but it’s to illustrate the point of media frenzy that is absorbing the public space of the moment. Much as we might see ourselves as a sophisticated species where a forum is a place of philosophical debate. Where thinkers and politicians test their theories in an open public space. We have the front page of the likes of the Daily Mail instead. Stories about reality shows gone wrong trump concerns about real reality.

It’s a new age. That said, it’s always a new age. In the world of politics and governance we have been here before. To an extent. Type the letters “SDP” into a popular search engine and it’s likely to come up with the Social Democratic Party (SDP). It’s a defunked political party. Or is that just my search engine? In 1981, a spin-off of the Labour Party, the “Gang of Four” showed great promise. Suddenly a step change in the UK’s political terrain seemed possible. A small group of seasoned politicians started to articulate a set of policies that people appeared to like.

To cut it short, that political experiment was absorbed and didn’t lead to the radical change of the landscape that was expected. Over the last 35 years the ideas spoken of by the SDP have not gone away but they have been absorbed and diluted. This does lead me to wonder if the schism between conservatives, those on the right-wing of UK politics, will not eventually melt away. The great big sponge of institutional lethargy will swallow up the dissenters. Loud disruptors on the make will merge with the elephantine traditions of past generations.

What I now think is that such thinking is dangerous. It’s all to do with the rapid nature of change. It’s to do with historic analogies becoming less relevant. It’s to do with an unparalleled speed of interconnection, interaction and interdependency. The landscape has changed.

The media is so important because we need stories to make sense of the world. Our place in the world and possible future is shaped by the results of a mass of interconnection, interaction and interdependency. Dare I say – No man is an island.

Usually when we experience a disruption to a commonly accepted narrative there’s a push back. An innate caution resides in us all. It maybe primitive. A tribal instinct.

This is where the digital world has changed our experiences. For all time. If every day (every hour) there’s a minor disruption, say a story about UFOs, the ground on which we stand starts to shift. Our shared sense-making starts to question and before we know it the fringe belief becomes common place.

Traditional institutions will confront disruptive change with opinion polls, spreadsheets, detailed analysis and studies. Interestingly, enabled and enhanced by digital technology. However, they are like the fire truck that turns up after the house has burned down.

Brexit was proof to me that a step-change can be driven by manipulating information. A political rupture can be advanced. A collapse of trust can be engineered. Now, that is frightening.

Reflections on 30 Years as a UK Parliamentary Candidate

Politics in the UK is as volatile as ever it’s been. Although, that’s maybe overstating the situation. It doesn’t take much to revisit past years to remember that dramatic moments occur more often that we might think. A constant media frenzy is not so uncommon.

My experience of standing as a UK Parliamentary Candidate in a General Election goes back to 1997. Now, that was a dramatic year in the life of the UK. It was part of the ding-dong of the passing of political power between two major political parties. And the change was one that the whole country felt was coming. However, the Labour landslide result was a surprise.

My hopes of success in the constituency of Epsom and Ewell were somewhat ambitious. At that time in the county of Surrey, it was truly an era when a donkey could stand for election wearing a blue rosette and it would get elected. Having established myself in that part of Surrey, I had a second go at Epsom and Ewell in 2001. My main opponents had changed but the lay of the land wasn’t so different. The shoe-in Conservative candidate wrapped themselves in the Union Jack flag and worshiped Margaret Thatcher[1]. That’s all they needed to do.

My next outing as a UK Parliamentary Candidate was in 2010. That’s quite a gap. In those years my professional career was moving fast so the time for politics was limited. I arrived in Crawley in West Sussex, without any possibility of winning and becoming a Member of Parliament (MP). On the upside, I did know the town and a lot of the issues that impacted the place. In this town the competition was part of that ding-dong of the passing of political power between two major political parties. The result swung from Labour to Conservative.

My next outing as a General Election candidate was in the constituency of Runnymede & Weybridge in Surrey in 2015. It was the second one with a tangible aviation connection[2]. This time, I was up against a government minister. A chancellor. However, it was politics of the same long standing Surrey County kind. The most interesting public meeting on this occasion was the one held at the Royal Holloway[3]. Like irritating nits, the university’s Labour students made themselves evident.

I went back to Runnymede & Weybridge in 2017. Same location but a different flavour of election campaign. Brexit had thrown poison on the campaign trail. One well attended public meeting at Strode’s[4] I shared a platform with another Conservative man who was to become chancellor. A highly unsuccessful one.

You would think that I’d have got the message by now. Surrey has been a baston of Conservative support for decades. Even centuries. Shifting that position was to require decades of effort.

In 2019, for the first time, I stood for a national election in the place where I lived. The small town of Reigate in Surrey needed to change. I wanted to bring about that change. Again, the reversion of the local electorate to patterns of voting passed down the years was not going to be shifted. They re-elected an MP that subsequently they must have regreted doing so.

I mentioned Margaret Thatcher. Her influence was certainly hovering over my next outing. Grantham and Bourne saw me on the ballot paper in 2024. Entering the lion’s den turned out to be much more pleasant than I’d anticipated. Getting to know Stamford[5] was a pure delight. Sadly, my election results were the worst I’ve delivered so far. No regrets. It’s only by doing these things that I’ve accumulate some unique experiences.

What’s it like to be a parliamentary candidate? For all the ups and downs of these 30-years it’s an opportunity to be cherished. Fine, I’ve not changed the world. I’ll not be sitting in the Palace of Westminster. Those campaigning efforts have been forgotten by most people.

Let’s go back to Epsom and Ewell. Imagine the smile on my face when at the last General Election, the Liberal Democrat candidate won.

[1] https://www.gov.uk/government/history/past-prime-ministers/margaret-thatcher

[2] https://www.brooklandsmuseum.com/

[3] https://www.royalholloway.ac.uk/

[4] https://www.strodes.ac.uk/

[5] https://www.visitlincolnshire.com/destinations/stamford/

Unity and Conflict

New news? Party sources say x% believed there should be a different leader. So said a notable political correspondent under the banner “Labour leaders try to restore morale.” The article went on to say: “…arguing that the party must pull itself together and “steer a straight course” if it wanted to win the next general election.”

“But Mr Kinnock, facing mounting criticism, has chosen a different forum to launch his fightback after an unhappy three weeks that has seen the Conservatives take a 12 percent lead in the polls.”

Party politics can be a terribly cruel sport. That’s not new in all of history. This quoted article, from the 1980s has a kind of resonance with what’s happening now. The roles are different as Labour was trying to find a way of ousting the Conservative Party from power. It took them until 1997 to find a formula that worked. There’s no doubt that Kinnock did the groundwork that made the electoral success of New Labour possible. Reading my newspaper cutting, it wasn’t exactly a pleasant time.

Is this what’s happening to the Labour Party now? Sir Keir Starmer did the groundwork to win power. But Mr Starmer, facing mounting criticism, has chosen to continue his fightback after an unhappy few weeks that has seen the others prosper from his numerous shortcomings.

What next? Is it for the next Party leader, and thus Prime Minister, to make effective use of the power that remains? The threat is no longer the past enemy, the Conservative Party. Now, Reform UK are giving the impression of being the greater opposition come the next general election.

Why are we so distressed at squabbling within an important political party? This has been an almost permanent feature of British politics.

A combination of at least two fixed elements makes conflict inevitable with Parties. As well as between Parties. One is the adversarial style of British politics. Two is the primitive First Past The Post (FPTP) electoral system.

Both elements assume that two of the largest political Parties will forcefully lock horns. To maintain their preeminent positions, as the largest, they must encompass a lot of people who simply do not agree with each other. There’s as much politics within the politics as there is in the real world. Leadership is as much about maintaining a degree of unity as it is governing the country.

With decades of accumulated experience, it might be reasonable to think that the established political Parties would have this one nailed. Surprisingly, that never seems to be the case.

The advice in the 1980s was: “His closest friends believe that the only way forward is to try to turn the situation around by going on the offensive against …………….” The target for an offensive here has changed but the idea is a classic one.

Will we be seeing Labour Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer mount an all-out offensive against UK Reform? Thus, keeping his colleagues from plotting and scheming. I wonder. Certainly, this will make for an interesting month ahead.

Local Elections: Challenges and Opportunities

Listening to the leader of the opposition in the UK is like listening to a paddle boat[1] rider whose getting swept out to sea. Paddling ever faster, piling on the rhetoric, with no idea how to get back to the shore. It’s probably a big plastic duck with flaky paint and no safety certificate.

Equating talking tough with talking faster doesn’t cut it. Using the word “plan” without having one is aiming for deep trouble. Doubling down on past errors of judgement isn’t the least bit convincing. Drawing intendable distinctions, as if in front of a judge, impresses few listeners.

May’s elections coming around the corner. These are predominantly local elections. So, when Party leaders bypass the hardy perennials, like the state of the potholes in the roads, and veer off into international politics it’s clear they haven’t much to say. Local authorities provide a substantial number of vital services and so there’s plenty of subjects to address, if they would be minded to do so.

Here we are in a state of play that has a real air of novelly about it. The two tribes that have dominated politics in this country are struggling in the doldrums. Both the Conservative Party and the Labour Party are floundering. Tarnished by a lengthy list of past mistakes. Their current leaders unable to project a vision for the future.

Here we have no council elections this year. Either elections are held once every four-years or a proportion of a local authority are up for election every year. There’s merit in both schemes.

In the first case there can be a more dramatic change of leadership as a whole council changes in one go. That can give the winners a clear mandate to meet a particular promise. On the downside, one emotive campaign issue can dominate, even if it’s small relative to the impact of a new four-year administration.

In the second case there’s a more gradual change of political complexion of a local council. More chance of continuity of actions and polices. Also, the local electorate get in the habit of expressing a view and an election every year at the same time. On the downside this can put more power in the hands of the council officers than the elected councillors.

Overall, I prefer annual local elections in May, despite the cost associated with their running. It’s a better way of engaging the community rather than a build-up to a bigger event. It’s also easier to find candidates who are willing and able to stand for election and likely to see through a full-term in office.

This week is a week for political scientist to chew over something other than opinion polls. Real ballots, in real ballot boxes are so much more real. Professor John Curtice will be on every media outlet. We will see if the predication of the steady decline of the Conservative Party and the Labour Party come about.

I expect that result will be the one that people are talking about at the end of the week. In my view there will be a distribution of votes across the choices that are on the ballot. This will not mean greater clarity or definition of where we are heading as a country. As a liberal, I can’t complin if there’s a great diversity of views expressed.

What I can say it that we will need a better electoral system that copes with a multiple Party array of choices. Electoral reform[2] is likely to become a necessity.

[1] https://swanpedalboats.com/ducks/

[2] https://electoral-reform.org.uk/