war – John Vincent

Defense Needs

I’m a simple creature. Not too difficult to agree. Controlling a country’s border is one of the fundamental aspects of national security. However, it’s one amongst many and it’s not the single most important. Certainly, I’d put provisioning and training of the country’s military personnel above that of basic border control. It’s possible to carry more than one priority. What’s important is to put those priorities in the right order.

There’s a lot to be said for the notion of speaking softly and carrying a big stick[1]. Possessing strength is as much about perception as reality. But if the gap between the two grows too far then trouble is just around the corner.

Thus, the media obsession with immigration, at a time when it’s clear that the peace dividend that has been taken since the falling of the Berlin Wall has gone too far, is an indulgence. It’s missing the point by a million miles. Putting up more barriers and walls is not a way of building strength. The past should teach us that lesson. Dare I say, a lot of people are being led by the nose in the wrong direction.

Saying that we live in turbulent times can be a predicable line. Turbulence, in one part of the world or another, is a constant. However, in today’s mishmash of geopolitical movements, we here in Europe have been fortunate, at least in the last 40-years.

The Cold War was a clear and present danger to our way of life. That story was played out as I left school. The prospect of an accidental nuclear catastrophe was real. As such the UK invested in national defence along with its close allies. Sometimes not wisely, it’s true, but the threat was well understood. As the threat appeared to diminish so government spending habits changed. For perfectly understandable reasons the end of the Cold War ushered in a period in which society focused less on military provisioning. Government turned its attention to issues that were more at the forefront of day-to-day public demands. Blown by the winds of regular media frenzies.

Yesterday, in the rain, I visited a local arts centre. Greenham Common[2] is now an industrial estate and open parkland. The military runway has long been ripped up. That’s good. What we shouldn’t forget is the history of the place.

Big stick diplomacy is about sober confidence that is backed by an unquestionable capability for immediate action. It seems to me that the UK has slipped a long way from that philosophy. Recent events have tested the gap between words and deeds.

Where does the cacophony of voices about immigration came from? One source is political parties that take money from foreign donors. Another is media organisations who have a track record for backing the wrong people. Another is spokespeople who don’t have the UK’s best interests at heart. Yet, these all get massive amounts of press coverage.

The current US President may have a considerable number of faults. In one area he’s right. It’s not easy to say he’s right. Europe must stand on its own two feet. That’s a Europe that includes the UK. Our national security is only sustainable by working closely with our neighbours.

So, we need to get off a short-term media obsession about immigration.

Start being serious about what we spend on defence and why. The government’s defence investment plan, originally scheduled for last year, needs to be settled and put into action. There’s no point in talking big and carrying a lesser stick. In fact, it’s dangerous.

POST: Industry calls for closer links Fast-Tracking EU-UK Defence Industrial Cooperation: a critical reset – ADS Group

[1] widely attributed to US President Theodore Roosevelt.

[2] https://visitnewbury.org.uk/attractions/raf-greenham-common-crookham-common/

Uncertain Times

What do you do when faced with abusive and disruptive behaviour? For the most part, it’s common to have an emotional response and an idealistic one. That’s not the way situations play out, in reality. We do not live in a world of superheroes where a baddy is reformed and order is restored. Well, not always.

World affairs are full of tragic circumstances. Full of volatility too. One moment paise goes to a friend and the next minute insults are thrown like confetti. There’s a rhythm to this backwards and forwards stream of words. It’s plagued with inconsistency and simple error.

Let’s say a disruptive colleague is ranting and raving about the rights and wrongs of the day’s news. It’s great to say – just tell him to take a walk. Clam down and engage brain. In the idea situation there’s some form of accountability. All actions have a consequence.

Here we are. There’s a crisis on the doorstep. A war is raging and it’s only just begun. Setting light an oil rich part of the globe has ramifications everywhere.

Putting aside the fact that history has given us plenty of warnings about situations like this one. Continuing to be dependent upon sources of fossil fuel is not sustainable. However, we look at it, eventually this elixir of the modern world will run out. In the meantime, the foolishness of increasing the amount of CO2 in the Earth’s atmosphere is proven.

Here in Europe, a clear divide is growing. Historically, fair trade, the rule of law and common defence goals have marked out the relationship between Europe and the US. In international institutions the two have a long record of supporting each other. Common interests run through the thread of affairs like the words in a stick of rock[1].

Donald Trump’s second term as President of the US is proving to be a massive test to that long thread. Interests are diverging. Diverging not between the people of Europe and the US but between their political leaders.

So, let’s remember that political leaders are like fireflies. They go through several stages during their careers. The last one is most often marked by failure. One witty guy said that the adage that political careers end in failure needs to be changed. In fact, all political careers end in the publication of memoirs. Often saying – I was right all the time. With Trump it’s as if he (or his ghost writer) is writing his memoirs as he goes.

It’s abundantly clear, for the next couple of years, Europe and the US are going to travel different paths. As ever, the UK must choose or end up straddling a wide gulf. With Europe the tenants of fair trade, the rule of law and common defence goals still stand.

One day, in the not-too-distant future, I will be a septuagenarian. I hope that the passing of years has enabled me to accrue some wisdom. I’m determined not to succumb to disruptive and unruly incoherence. Even if I do, I hope that I’m not in a position of power that encourages those around be to become sycophantic.

Democratic processes do have a way of punishing political failure. They need to kick-in.

[1] https://brightonbitesback.com/a-history-of-brighton-rock-candy/

Peaceful Border

It’s superfluous to say so. Canada is not the US, and the US is not Canada.

It quickly becomes clear. I’ve been fortunate to visit places east-west and north south. Although not the far snowbound North. The two countries do share geography. Rocky Mountains stretch across the North America. From British Columbia to New Mexico. The Great Plains span North America. A stark contrast to the mountains, as a huge expanse. In the East, the rolling landscape of the Appalachian Mountains runs from Newfoundland to Alabama.

It’s not the same with social and economic geography or history. A profound difference has been forged by Canada’s citizens over a couple of hundred years.

If we look back to the late 17^th and early 18^th centuries the new world was a hugely different place than it is now. Britain, France, Spain, and their allies were fighting over vast territories. European conflicts translated into competition and trade wars. Eventually, America colonialist brought about a revolution, so there would be no need for royalty, aristocracy, or an imposed church. Rejecting their British masters, even if they did keep their system of laws.

At the start of the 19^th century, the US did invade Canada with a couple of conflicts. So, the idea that the US may wish to annex a part, or all of Canada is not entirely new. I’m going to have to read up on the Battle of Stoney Creek of 1813. It seems a namesake of mine played a pivotal role in preventing the US from taking Canada[1]. No relation – I’m (almost) sure. Irish heritage.

My assumption is that US President Trump is doing what he has done times before. Mark out an extreme position from which then to shape future negotiations. That’s not so mad as it might appear. It’s not nice when considering the cordial relationships that have characterised so much of the recent past. Kicking at the sides of an ally.

Stretching over thousands of kilometres (or miles if you prefer), the boarder between the US and Canada is one of the most peaceful in the world. To reignite conflicts of a couple of hundred years ago is not a wise option. I’m sure Canada could call upon a great deal of support if the worst-case scenario were to prevail.

Mutuality may not be fashionable. It needs to be made fashionable, again. The notion of a win-win scenario where both parties benefit, it’s real, it’s not mythical. Both US and Canada are sovereign. It’s best for the world that it stays that way.

[1] https://www.biographi.ca/en/bio/vincent_john_7E.html

Europe Day Highlights the Need for Unity

Keeping the peace is never easy. There’s an irrational propensity to conflict in human nature. Keeping the peace is not a passive task. First, it requires communication and engagement. When those two go, trouble is not far behind. It’s by expressing concerns that each side knows where the other stands. Escalation can come when ignorance and propaganda take over.

After the second world war, institutions were established to ensure that communication and engagement became a non-stop affair. With only a small number of exceptions, the countries of the regions of the world engaged in these institutions. Those measure have contributed to making a more prosperous world.

“Never again” are two words that refer to the atrocities of war. The moto is to remind everyone that the worst can and does happen, and that perpetual effort is needed to ensure that history does not repeat itself. The concept of “lessons learned” is essential for safety and security. This is as much true for micro day to day activities as it is for the macro events that shape the path global ahead. Taking teaching not from narcissistic demigods and snake oil salesman but from the pages of history. Appeasing tyranny is not an option.

This week has been a reminder of the lessons learned from the world wars. For most people it’s been a continuing commitment to ensure such events never happen again in Europe. Sadly, let’s not be coy. Despite an overwhelming desire for peace, conflict in still Europe is a reality. But the lesson is there in black and white, appeasing tyranny never works.

Today, Friday 9^th May is Europe Day. That’s because a speech by Robert Schuman[1] changed the course of European history on this day. Five years after the war in Europe had come to an end, he put forward a proposal that would make a future similar conflict impossible. The idea was to create an interdependence that would secure peace, unity and solidarity.

It worked. His proposal led to the creation of a European Coal and Steel Community. That measure lay solid foundation for what would later become the European Union (EU). Behind this is move is the echo of “Never again”. Europe has seen centuries of war. This was a moment in time to bring that to an end.

For now, 75-years on, this has been a success. It’s not a regional project with a defined end, even if it has a defined beginning. Where the EU chooses to go next is in the hands of its Member States and its citizens. Changing the course of European history doesn’t stop because the EU exists. Without the cooperation and dialogue, it provides there’s always a chance that ancient rivalries will be reignited. In fact, unscrupulous right-wing politicians[2] are trying to do that just now.

Sadly, in the UK, we stand on the sidelines, looking across the water at continental Europe. Brexit has done a great deal of damage. But as I have said, nothing is static, the world is entering an ever-uncertain phase. The opportunity for the UK to restore EU relations is open. I see the wisdom in the words of the Governor of the Bank of England. He has said the UK now needs to “rebuild” Britain’s relationship with the EU. Amen to that.

[1] www.europa.eu/!9JbCd9

[2] https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-spy-agency-walk-back-extremist-label-afd/