There’s a distinct possibility that I will repeat myself in these articles. This should not be a problem.
Most of what happens in life is a matter of probability. There’s a high probability that I’ll have dinner this evening but there’s a low probability my local MP will dine with me. When dealing with risks the best anyone can do is to make both qualitative and quantitative assessments of the likelihood of the occurrence of an event. How good these turn out to be rather depends on the quality of the information upon which these assessments are made.
At this moment, there is a growing likelihood of a “No Deal” outcome to the Brexit negotiations.
Reasons being the continuing lack of a Parliamentary majority for the possible offer, stubborn pride of those involved and delayed planning. It’s utterly pointless to even think about the blame game – yet. Whatever happens, big changes will have to be made to cope with the new situation.
Early in the year, prudently the EU published a series of notices concerning the “No Deal” outcome. These were stark and based upon the UK becoming a “Third Country” with a blank sheet of paper in front of it. That’s a Country with no special arrangements with the EU. The basic reality of that case is that companies, organisations and individuals wishing to continue business with the EU post-Brexit may need to establish a presence in the EU 27. They may need to seek new approvals or new recognition of their qualifications and/or licences in an EU Member State[1].
UK technical notices offer the intention to unilaterally recognise EU certificates, licences and standards in the wish to minimise disruption, at least for a short time.
Recently in the UK Parliament, the Director General at the UK Department for Transport DfT[2], told the Public Accounts Committee that agreements on air services between Britain and the EU comprise “an area of growing concern to us”. Naturally, it would be sensible and mutually beneficial for both sides of the EU-UK negotiations to provide certainty and stability to people and businesses as soon as possible. Whilst significant efforts are being made to ensure the conclusion of an agreement on an orderly withdrawal, there’s a lot of remaining ground to cover. With around 5 months before the planned leaving date of 29 March 2019, detailed negotiations over air services have yet to get going.
As an aside, it’s strange how the truth of this precarious situation is often not evident from any viewing of the questions and debates in the House of Commons. I don’t say, UK Parliament because the House of Lords often seems to be more up to speed with EU matters than the Commons.
Last evening, I had the opportunity to stroll around both the Lords and the Commons[3]. I can see how its quite possible to become detached from everyday reality in a place so steeped in history. It looks more suited to page boys running around with handwritten notes than the high-speed interconnected world outside the building. 100 years ago, great reforms changed the shape of our society. To me, there’s need for another dramatic round of reforms to at least try to be in the 21st Century.
[1] https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/uk-confirms-no-deal-brexit-would-limit-caa-certifica-452144/
[2] https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-for-transport
[3] https://www.parliament.uk/visiting/visiting-parliament-news/museums-at-night-october-2018/
John Vincent 