The difficulties in UK-EU negotiations can be overcome if there’s serious political engagement. That means putting forward a realistic plan. In line with the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) the UK is contributing to the EU budget as per the EU Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) for 2014-2020[1]. This will come to an end. The EU Members States are engaged in determining the next EU MFF. Many are arguing for the EU MFF to be the backbone of recovery in these exceptional circumstances. The UK will not be part of that process. However, there’s no reason why a bespoke arrangement couldn’t be put in place to extend the current transition period.
Firstly, there need to be a negotiated agreement. Second, there needs to be ratification by all the parties. Thirdly, Government, industry and the public need to adapt to the new arrangements. Completing that package of three in 8-months is practically impossible.
Germany is taking over the European Council presidency in July. Their focus is most likely to be recovery from the COVID-19 crisis[2]. It’s unlikely to be Brexit. That said, both UK and EU will have the same interests in restarting and rebuilding the economy of Europe.
As if the above wasn’t difficult enough the political realities are that UK Prime Minister Johnson is tied to Brexit. And the Governing UK Conservative Party is tied to both Johnson and Brexit*.
However bizarre it may seem it would be wise to prepare for the case where the last quarter of 2020 brings about a situation where the UK is likely to have the highest COVID-19 death toll in Europe and the Brexit talks fail bringing about a No Deal outcome as a global recession hits.
The latest forecasts are for a significant drop in the number of international air travellers[3]. Flying is changing in ways that were not anticipated. Coronavirus has frozen the world of aviation.
The experience for those who do travel will be less appealing. Many airlines are asking their passengers to wear face masks. Measure will be needed to ensure social distancing. This may mean the end to low cost air travel, as operators increase prices to fund new measures.
If there is good news it might be that plans to accelerate the retirement of some older, less fuel-efficient aircraft are being brought forward[4]. Also, in the pipeline are the new forms of air mobility that are being developed[5].
NOTE*: Further indications of inflexibility in the current poltical climate. I wrote the above words before watching this Select Committee:
Future Relationship with the EU Committee
Coverage of the committee on the UK’s future relationship with the EU with evidence from the chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, Michael Gove, from Monday 27 April.
[1] https://www.bestforbritain.org/report-extend-transition
[2] https://twitter.com/GermanyDiplo/status/1255921106524835841?s=20
[3] https://www.icao.int/Newsroom/Pages/Billion-fewer-international-air-travellers-this-year-according-to-latest-ICAO-forecast.aspx
[4] http://news.aa.com/news/news-details/2020/A-fond-farewell-to-five-fantastic-fleets-FLT-04/
[5] https://www.internationalairportreview.com/article/115146/unmanned-aircraft-airport-authorities-column/
John Vincent 