What’s going to happen in 2026? Predictions are always more a matter for the ancient Greek Gods than mere mortals but here goes. For the world of civil aviation:
Global air traffic will continue to grow,
Large hub airports will continue to expand,
Commercial air travel safety improvement will stagnate,
Electric air taxis will become a reality,
Pontification about the next generation of single aisle aircraft will continue,
Impacts of climate change will increase,
Blows to climate action will be slowly reversed,
AI breakthroughs will continue but adoption will slow,
Drone technology will advance at pace,
More airspace will be subject to conflict warnings,
Volatility and instability will plague the commercial manufacturing sector,
Regulatory harmonisation will struggle to advance,
And for certain, the United States will formally mark its 250th birthday.
Some pluses and some minuses. It will not be a dull year.
Globally the future of civil aviation is a healthy one. Propensity to travel is deeply ingrained in our ideas of development and growth. The complexities of adopting innovations are not new to the aviation industry. What may be new is finding a workforce that is as captivated by aviation as past generations. To train, induct them and offer them the attractive careers paths that compete with other fields. Anticipation of potential technology transformations often lacks a vision for the people who will make them possible.
John Vincent 