Flying, Democracy and Safety 1.

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National lockdowns are being effective in controlling COVID-19 outbreaks. The tricky part is that the fear that has been induced in people to encourage compliance with the lockdowns means that any relaxation of rules is going to be difficult. That’s only right and proper, given that the management of risk is a delicate balancing act. Not only that but fatality totals have risen to truly staggering levels.

What is evident is that the way the international air transport industry has been working, its systems, procedures and business models are going to need a radical shakeup. Coronavirus is a game changer. According to @IATA the impact of COVID-19 crisis on long-haul travel is to be “much more severe and of a longer duration” than what is expected in domestic markets.

Aviation safety work is important per se, but it has the added value of maintaining public confidence in air transport. In the past, a minority had a fear of flying. For as long as we have COVID-19, the situation is different. Now, it’s likely that many more people will be finding alternatives or putting off flying either for business or pleasure.

Governments have introduced measures and restrictions at borders. If these stay in place summer holidays are going to be off this year.

The European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom (UK) continue to try to create a new partnership. The agenda for this week’s round of EU-UK negotiations have been published[1]. It’s good to see that Aviation Safety gets a couple of hours on Wednesday, 13 May 2020. No doubt a progress report will be forthcoming by the end of the week.

There’s still a possibility that a limited deal could be struck by October 2020. However, it continues to look unlikely that the UK will seek an extension to talks despite the risks. With confirmation that the UK is in an economic recession the hard-line on the Brexit negotiation time limit looks suicidal. The combination of events is extremely bad.

The great Brexit divide in British politics is alive and kicking. It’s deepening as people harden their views under the weight of the Coronavirus crisis. The political slogan of 2016: “Take back control” now sounds hollow and meaninglessness.

If the EU-UK negotiations fail and a No-Deal Brexit outcome results the harm it will do to ourselves and to our allies, friends and neighbours will be unforgivable in normal times. It will be unbelievably irresponsible in the middle of an economic and health crisis.

[1] https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/brexit_files/info_site/hl-agenda-round-3.pdf

Aviation, Brexit and COVID19 (ABC) 10

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Now, the topic for writers is what will the new normal look like for civil aviation, and everything else for that matter. That’s the new normal post-COVID-19. Inevitably there’s a great deal of expert speculation wrapped-up in such writings. Without a tried and tested way out of the different national lockdowns there’s a fair degree of guess work going on. That said, public support for the lockdowns remains high, but beneath this, people are having quite different lockdown experiences.

The first recognition of Europe Day was by the Council of Europe in 1964. On Tuesday, the Council of Europe[1] turned 71-years-old. Its 47 Member States are dedicated to the protection of Human Rights, Democracy, and the Rule of Law. Its work is more relevant now than it has ever been. Especially, when on Friday, we recognise the sacrifices that were made during the World Wars. Many people will be marking the 75th anniversary of VE Day[2] in their homes as the coronavirus outbreak prohibits public gatherings. History is clear, supporting a strong relationship between the UK and Continental Europe is essential for all our futures.

Also, this week trade talks between the UK and US have kicked-off. This maybe a big mistake having not completed negotiations with the European Union (EU) and during the COVID-19 crisis. Defeating the pandemic should be the UK Government’s sole focus for months to come. At the moment, there’s a lack of seriousness coming from Westminster.

Initially, the UK Government downplayed the risks of COVID-19 but now the world has succumbed to the reality of the pandemic. Trying to fix international relationships covering most of the UK’s trade and travel at a time of great turmoil is unwise. The unprecedented economic and social challenges posed by COVID-19 means we could lock ourselves into arrangement that subsequently turn out to be detrimental but fixed.

In the UK, the Pilots’ Union is saying that civil aviation is in a “death spiral”[3]. This language may seem emotive but there’s good reason for it given the downsizing that aircraft operators are planning. Job losses are certain. A smaller industry will result.

Last year, a part of the Article 50 EU withdrawal process was the possibility of a No-Deal Brexit which in the end both parties avoided. That was a temporary respite. This year, there’s another deadline in prospect; the end 31 December 2020. Last time the brinkmanship practiced produced an agreement but there was no global downturn in progress. This time is a billion times different. Brinkmanship is not the right formula in 2020. It’s plain foolish and reckless.

[1] https://www.coe.int/en/web/portal

[2] Victory in Europe Day on 8 May.

[3] https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/coronavirus-uk-flights-airlines-aviation-pilots-union-a9498766.html

Aviation, Brexit and COVID19 (ABC) 9

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The difficulties in UK-EU negotiations can be overcome if there’s serious political engagement. That means putting forward a realistic plan. In line with the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) the UK is contributing to the EU budget as per the EU Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) for 2014-2020[1]. This will come to an end. The EU Members States are engaged in determining the next EU MFF. Many are arguing for the EU MFF to be the backbone of recovery in these exceptional circumstances. The UK will not be part of that process. However, there’s no reason why a bespoke arrangement couldn’t be put in place to extend the current transition period.

Firstly, there need to be a negotiated agreement. Second, there needs to be ratification by all the parties. Thirdly, Government, industry and the public need to adapt to the new arrangements. Completing that package of three in 8-months is practically impossible.

Germany is taking over the European Council presidency in July. Their focus is most likely to be recovery from the COVID-19 crisis[2]. It’s unlikely to be Brexit. That said, both UK and EU will have the same interests in restarting and rebuilding the economy of Europe.

As if the above wasn’t difficult enough the political realities are that UK Prime Minister Johnson is tied to Brexit. And the Governing UK Conservative Party is tied to both Johnson and Brexit*.

However bizarre it may seem it would be wise to prepare for the case where the last quarter of 2020 brings about a situation where the UK is likely to have the highest COVID-19 death toll in Europe and the Brexit talks fail bringing about a No Deal outcome as a global recession hits.

The latest forecasts are for a significant drop in the number of international air travellers[3]. Flying is changing in ways that were not anticipated. Coronavirus has frozen the world of aviation.

The experience for those who do travel will be less appealing. Many airlines are asking their passengers to wear face masks. Measure will be needed to ensure social distancing. This may mean the end to low cost air travel, as operators increase prices to fund new measures.

If there is good news it might be that plans to accelerate the retirement of some older, less fuel-efficient aircraft are being brought forward[4]. Also, in the pipeline are the new forms of air mobility that are being developed[5].

NOTE*: Further indications of inflexibility in the current poltical climate. I wrote the above words before watching this Select Committee:

Future Relationship with the EU Committee

Select Committees

Coverage of the committee on the UK’s future relationship with the EU with evidence from the chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, Michael Gove, from Monday 27 April.

[1] https://www.bestforbritain.org/report-extend-transition

[2] https://twitter.com/GermanyDiplo/status/1255921106524835841?s=20

[3] https://www.icao.int/Newsroom/Pages/Billion-fewer-international-air-travellers-this-year-according-to-latest-ICAO-forecast.aspx

[4] http://news.aa.com/news/news-details/2020/A-fond-farewell-to-five-fantastic-fleets-FLT-04/

[5] https://www.internationalairportreview.com/article/115146/unmanned-aircraft-airport-authorities-column/

Aviation, Brexit and COVID19 (ABC) 8

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The indications are that the second round of UK-EU future relationship negotiations were disappointing but constructive even as they took place in challenging conditions. It’s interesting to see the diplomatic use of the word: ”constructive” displaying calculated vagueness. On the upside, the statements made by a UK Government spokesperson hints at some convergence on transport matters[1]. That can only be good.

The next round begins on 11 May. The one after that begins on 1 June. Then later in June there’s a plan for a High-Level Conference to take stock of progress in the UK-EU negotiations[2].

Most observers should be concerned about the lack of pragmatism and realism being shown by the parties. The likelihood of a No Deal Brexit outcome is still big. One reason for this is that, for many Brexiters, libertarians and populists, Brexit is their “raison d’etre”. So, that means pushing on regardless of the social, economic and reputational costs. In a year of pandemic, you might ask the question: who would want more damage?

More than ever I’m remined that Government is an oil tanker. Once it sets off in a direction it’s incredibly difficult to turn around. The poor early response to COVID-19 shows how difficult reorientation of Government activities are even in the face of a clear and present danger. It seems brinkmanship by the UK is because it doesn’t know how to do differently. The direction set is either the UK will agree with the EU a deal on the lines of the free trade agreement the EU has with Canada or it’s a No Deal Brexit.

Sadly, it’s undoubtably true that the global aviation industry will emerge from 2020 weaker and more vulnerable than it has been for decades. Now we have announcements that British Airways (BA) plan to cut up to 12,000 jobs as its worst crisis in history unfolds[3]. Virgin Atlantic is on the road to collapse without help.

Lufthansa is set to receive rescue package worth roughly €9bn from the German Government. Air France is to receive $7.6 billion loan package backed by the French Government[4]. So, far the UK Government is remaining tight lipped.

More than ever, European aviation, Governments and health organisations need to collaborate and co-ordinate to mitigate the disastrous effects of COVID-19. Brexit is a diversion.

[1] https://no10media.blog.gov.uk/2020/04/24/statement-on-round-two-of-uk-eu-negotiations/

[2] https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/statement_20_739

[3] https://news.sky.com/story/british-airways-may-cut-12000-jobs-as-virus-crisis-grounds-flights-11980136

[4] https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-airfranceklm-renau/air-france-klm-wins-aid-deal-flags-likely-share-issue-idUKKCN22631F

Aviation, Brexit and COVID19 (ABC) 7

IMG_1754 (2) Globally, the air transport industry supports 65.5 million jobs. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has looked at the potential economic Impacts of COVID19 on civil aviation[1]. Even factoring in many uncertainties, these projections are dreadful.

Predictions are that this pandemic will take 3 to 4 years to pass[2]. Some industry commentators go as far as to say that the days of low-cost flying are behind us. They may never return. The UK is one of the worst hit countries in Europe.

In the meantime, employees are being furloughed[3] in the hope that restrictions will be slowly lifted later in the year. Even though work may have dried up companies and personnel still need to maintain the validity of their certificates and licenses. ICAO has asked its Member States to be flexible in their approaches while adhering to their international obligations.

The COVID-19 pandemic is an exceptional challenge for everyone. The UK Government has, in the past said that: aviation is “…at the heart of the United Kingdom’s economic success.”. These words need to count for something as difficult choices are made. There are things that can be done to improve the situation. Safeguarding aviation is important so that it’s working to help rebuild the economy after the coronavirus crisis.

If you have read my previous Blogs, you will see that I’m a strong advocate for securing an extension to the UK-EU relationship negotiating period. It’s clear that officials in Brussels, would like the UK Government to start the discussion on an extension. Getting an extension could deliver real advantages[4] for both parties especially in the middle of the greatest public health and economic crisis since WWII.

By remote means, the second round of UK-EU future relationship negotiations took place this week, from 20-24 April[5]. To date the UK Government’s position remains highly political, somewhat ignoring the economic consequences of not agreeing an extension. Coronavirus is having a monumental impact on almost every aspect of life in Europe. It makes sense to step back and take the time that is needed to get Brexit right. Dogma and ideology will not serve anyone well at this time. Sadly, Brexiters in the UK Government are still fighting their corner as if it was 2016.

[1] https://www.icao.int/sustainability/Pages/Economic-Impacts-of-COVID-19.aspx

[2] https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/air-transport/2020-04-22/deltas-bastian-sees-recovery-taking-long-three-years

[3] The word ‘furlough’ generally means temporary leave of absence from work.

[4] https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/there-is-nothing-to-lose-from-a-brexit-extension

[5] https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/second-round-uk-eu-future-relationship-negotiations-20-24-april

Aviation, Brexit and COVID19 (ABC) 6

low angle photo of airplane — Photo by Sam Willis on Pexels.com

Headless and free running, the UK’s Conservative Government is locked into policies that are no longer fit for purpose. The UK Prime Minister’s speech in Greenwich, London on 3 February 2020[1] is profoundly out of step with contemporary reality. The Government’s playbook is out of date. Overtaken by events. Even if he may not have said it, former PM Harold Macmillan is remembered for saying: “Events, dear boy, events[2]”

I sincerely hope certain stories are mere social media gossip and speculation. One is that the national economic impact of the COVID19 pandemic will be so dramatic that no one will notice the contribution made by a poor Brexit execution. It’s like saying that, if the house is suffering subsidence no one will notice the paint peeling off the walls. Damage is damage. That damage can always be put down to a world-wide phenomenon. Then there’s blaming China too.

Does this explain why it’s reported that the UK will not request an extension to the Brexit transition period[3]? Hard to tell. If it is then it’s short-termism of the worst kind. However, the possibility remains that the parties could support a transition extension at a high-level conference in June 2020.

Given the coronavirus crisis, the next UK-EU negotiating rounds will take place by videoconference[4]. The technical work of the two sides includes transport but the agendas of the next sessions are yet to be published. There is an argument against Brexit transition extension, but this isn’t a particularly convincing one, as all other bilateral trade deals are being delayed. For example, talks between the UK and US have been postponed with no sight of when they might start-up.

European aviation and aerospace have been one of the first industries to be impacted by the COVID-19 crisis. It will take one of the hardest hits. Support to the aviation and aerospace workforce and the industry can be a lifeline[5]. One that will be pivotal to Europe’s recovery after the pandemic.

London Heathrow (LHR) saw 80 million passengers in 2018[6]. Now, the UK’s biggest airport has been thrown back into the 1970s. They have moved to single runway operation[7]. LHR Terminals 3 and 4 are about to temporarily close. Cargo flights continue but the predictions are for lasting and significant changes to stick.

[1] https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-speech-in-greenwich-3-february-2020

[2] https://www.markpack.org.uk/13422/events-dear-boy-events-harold-macmillan/

[3] https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-uk-will-not-request-an-extension-to-the-brexit-transition-period

[4] https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/STATEMENT_20_672

[5] https://www.etf-europe.org/work-in-the-time-of-covid-19-transport-workers-stories/

[6] CAA airport statistics for numbers of air passengers at UK airports in 2018/2017.

[7] https://www.heathrow.com/customer-support/faq/coronavirus-covid-19

Aviation, Brexit and COVID19 (ABC) 5

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At the start of this pandemic, prominent UK Brexiters were saying: no need to panic. Let people continue to mingle. Let the virus become widespread so lots of people build-up an immunity[1]. As is so typically with Brexiters, they could not have given worse advice at a worse time. What’s sad is that, at the beginning of the year the UK Government was going down this uncaring road.

In the UK, we have broken the ominous threshold of 10,000 deaths put down to Coronavirus. It’s tragic that the UK Government didn’t take the warnings signs coming from China sufficiently serious. Now, the horse has bolted, and everyone is desperately playing catch-up. The UK’s chief scientific advisor has admitted that coronavirus testing in the UK should have been ramped up faster[2].

Even the hardest of hard-core Brexit supporters are saying, responding to COVID-19 is more important than pushing on with negotiations between UK and EU. Let’s hope that common sense prevails. The two parties have until the 1 July 2020 to decide whether to extend the existing transition period, and on what detailed terms. There’s even strange talk in the media that the UK wants pay-as-you-go Brexit. It’s simply not sane to expect Governments to secure a new free trade deals while dealing with a deadly situation.

It hardly seems right to be writing about Aviation at this moment. At the beginning of this year the biggest crisis the industry faced was that concerning the Boeing 737 MAX. It’s been a year since Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 crashed, taking 157 lives[3]. Naturally, that remains an important safety concern, only that it’s overshadowed by the coverage of the impact of lockdowns over the globe.

France has just extended its lockdown till 11 May 2020. It will be surprising if the UK doesn’t mirror what other European States are doing. Each should be learning from the other in this respect.

We ought to be thankful that there’s so many transport workers, air traffic controllers, pilots, engineers and professionals who maintain aviation. Cargo and essential medical supplies are continuing to be moved safely by air. Aviation safety must remain the top priority whatever the commercial or mission pressures.

[1] https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2020/02/daniel-hannan-alarmism-doom-mongering-panic-and-the-coronavirus-we-are-nowhere-near-a-1919-style-catastrophe.html

[2] https://www.itv.com/news/2020-04-13/coronavirus-testing-in-uk-not-ramped-up-as-quickly-as-it-should-have-been-government-s-chief-scientific-advisor-admits/

[3] https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1237423006869225475?s=20

Aviation, Brexit and COVID19 (ABC) 4

It looks like we have not reached the peak of the Coronavirus pandemic in the UK. It looks like there’s no practical exit strategy for the current lock-down. It looks like the longer this goes on the more dramatically different the future will be from what we expected only a few months ago.

We’ve daily UK Government Press Conferences for an update on actions to tackle the pandemic. Unfortunately, too often media questioning offers little insight into really what’s happening. The UK House of Commons is in recess. It’s scheduled to return on Tuesday, 21 April. Maybe then the direction and plans will become a little clearer.

I see the need to reflect on the current situation. Not to think of all the growing problems and difficulties but what, if any, could be the positive outcomes in terms of polices and actions. A bridge to the future. So, here goes with an unstructured list of possibilities but applying my best rose tinted glasses:

The UK and EU agree a Bilateral Aviation Safety Agreement (BASA) and a Comprehensive Air Transport Agreement (CATA) that are more extensive and imaginative that any that have gone before it. Building on the best of what already exists both agreements push the bounds of cooperation, collaboration and coordination[1].
Restarting the aviation industry pushes it to take climate change more seriously. Retirement of aircraft make space for more efficient ones to come into service. European States stop dragging their heels and employ new technologies for the management of air traffic. There’s a rapid increase in environmental mitigation measures at airports. Also, that all of these are implemented in a way that makes aviation more robust come the next crisis.
Research and innovation are given a major boost. The urgent need for the rapid development of new methods and systems is enthusiastically accepted and funded. Electric aviation is recognised as a pathway to sustainability and opportunities for new air transport air vehicles to provide new services.
Greater investment feeds into communication technologies improving the interconnection of every part of Europe. The insatiable demand for growth in travel is stabilised by making the most of remote working. Efforts on cyber security are redoubled. Independent fact checking for social media becomes a priority activity.
Extreme political polarisation is consigned to the dustbin of history. Woking together is seen as the norm. Enlightened regulation is used to best enhance freedom, prosperity and security. Progressive international bodies are reinforced to be able to better tackle the next global challenge, as surely there will be one.

When the day comes, and the crisis has passed and social distancing is no longer needed, then there will be a great need to reunite people. Aviation’s role is clear. Connecting people across the globe.

[1] Royal Aeronautical Society has produced a Brexit Briefing Note #brexit #easa http://ow.ly/Kcx750z7o5n

Aviation, Brexit and COVID19 (ABC) 3

For the most obvious reasons, Coronavirus has pushed EU-UK Brexit negotiations down the political agenda. Ironically, there’s the thought that Brexit No-Deal preparations, including stockpiling may have helped businesses prepare for the COVID19 lock-down. Thus, predicting the future is fraught with a million and one pitfalls but never has it been more important to plan.

Aviation is largely shutdown. Cabin crew, ground staff, engineers and office staff are concerned. Pilots have cut a deal with their employers. Aircraft are parked. Airports are closing runways. A stasis exists. When this crisis has passed, aviation will be key to the recovery of the European economy and in reuniting Europe’s people after painful isolation. Aviation has a vital role to play.

Meanwhile, the UK has obtained EU support to help cover the costs of repatriation flights during the crisis, taking advantage of a programme that subsidises efforts to bring back stranded nationals.

Unfortunately, decisions made in the first quarter of 2020 have proven to be highly questionable. In aviation there’s the subject of Human Factors. Much written about, and points of view argued over as these factors can be the root of catastrophises in aviation. There are what is described as the hazardous attitudes of pilots, controllers and engineers that can produce terrible outcomes. A couple of them have been evident in national politicians. They are invulnerability and the macho mindset. It’s sad to say that these attitudes: “Only I can do it – others can’t” and “It can’t happen to me” have resulted in lots of fatalities over the years. When flying, it’s always worth remembering that: If you are not aware of your limits, your first mistake is likely to be your last.

There’s a difference between skill and judgement. Scientists and technicians have the skill to advise and interpret information but it’s leaders who must exercise judgement. This unprecedented global virus challenge has resulted in some poor judgements.

Sound judgments included those to reschedule major international events like the Farnborough Air Show[1] and the 2020 United Nations Climate Change Conference COP26[2]. How strange it is not to extend the EU-UK Brexit transition period. The UK’s chief negotiator says that more talks will take place with the EU in April and May. It would be better if all Goverement efforts were focused on defeating this virus threat. Now, the Brexit agenda looks parochial and self-indulgent.

Slowly but surely this message is getting across. One reason is that the forecasts for the post-Coronavirus situation in the UK shows a weak ecomomy. Adding pain to pain in January 2021 would not only be foolish but it would be a political nail in the coffin for the Goverening Party.

Viruses can’t cooperate. Humans can cooperate. A European coordinated effort is of paramount importance. People have the upper hand if only they can get over what’s holding them back. Blame is a dead end.

[1] https://www.farnborough.com/

[2] https://www.gov.uk/government/topical-events/cop26

Aviation, Brexit and COVID19 (ABC) 2

Collaboration is essential especially when action needs to be taken fast. Seeing members of the aerospace industries coming together to scale up the production of medical ventilators is heartening. It’s important to use all our expertise to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with those on the Coronavirus front line.

There are credible experts predicting that the forced shutdown will permanently reshape the aviation industry. Already the early retirement of large aircraft is taking place at several international airlines[1][2]. For example, most Boeing 747-400s are more than 20 years old and airlines are replacing them with more fuel-efficient modern types.

The coronavirus pandemic means airlines are drastically reducing their passenger flights. It’s likely this will cause a spate of order cancellations as costs are being cut. Hitting not only aircraft manufactures but maintenance, repair and overhaul providers too.

EasyJet is reported to be parking its 344 aircraft with an aim to removes significant cost. In the months it takes to contain the COVID19 virus the aviation industry will struggle to avoid permanent damage. It’s appealing to Governments for the waiving of air traffic control and regulatory charges for the whole of the year[3].

On Brexit, polls now show that most people in the UK want the Government to seek an extension to the transition period to focus on coronavirus recovery. Many experts believe there’s no prospect of Britain striking a Brexit trade deal with the EU without an extension to the transition period. So far, UK Ministers have simply refused to consider this common-sense approach. It has been said that the outcome of the first Brexit Joint Committee[4], held this week, was like watching two people looking down different ends of a telescope.

In other news, British Airways has suspended its operations at London Gatwick Airport[5]. In addition, the airport has announced that on 1 April it will close its North Terminal. That sobering for me, having last travelled through the North Terminal on 20 March.

[1] https://www.traveller.com.au/qantas-boeing-747-jumbo-jet-retirement-coronavirus-groundings-may-hasten-the-end-for-iconic-plane-h1n03y

[2] https://www.ifn.news/posts/klm-to-retire-last-boeing-747-in-april/

[3] https://news.sky.com/story/airlines-call-on-government-to-underwrite-industry-charges-11963586

[4] https://ec.europa.eu/info/european-union-and-united-kingdom-forging-new-partnership/eu-uk-withdrawal-agreement/meetings-eu-uk-joint-committee-under-withdrawal-agreement_en

[5] https://www.flightglobal.com/airlines/british-airways-suspends-flights-from-gatwick/137641.article