The much-billed speech on Britain’s future relationship with the EU is out. Prime Minister, Theresa May stood at a lectern and read a winding text that dipped into the live subjects of the moment. Watching a recording of her big speech was like watching an Open University seminar. Last year, to appease her Party, Theresa May used the slogan: Brexit means Brexit. This has gone. Many of the costs of leaving the European Union were addressed. There was little, if anything about the benefits of leaving.
So, if Brexit happens here are a few of the troublesome problems seeking solutions.
There’s a positive recognition that a “level playing field” is essential for an EU-UK relationship to be sustainable. The devil is in the detail and on that front much remains to be discovered.
She continues to say that the European Court of Justice (ECJ) is ruled out of deciding disputes between EU-UK. Its clear that the ECJ plays a part but what part is yet to be determined.
The Prime Minister stressed the importance of a good deal on the flow of “data” between EU and UK. This aspiration makes good sense if only a whole new way of working didn’t have to be set-up in one year.
She accepts that people will still want to work and study in EU countries. However, there’s no clarity on how such movement will be relatively easy.
Looking at ways the UK could remain part of some EU Agencies is to be welcomed. However, our membership will be inferior to the 27 EU Member States in the three mentioned: the European Medicines Agency, the European Chemicals Agency, and the European Aviation Safety Agency.
Divergence from the EU on Agriculture seems inevitable. Its assumed that the maintenance of high standards continues to be the UK’s goal. An assumption like this could get traded away in the need for a future deal with Countries like the US.
The Prime Minister suggested that she wants to remain part of the science and innovation framework programmes. There will be a major cost to this objective.
Overall, I would quote Benjamin Franklin: “Necessity never made a good bargain.” The UK needs a good deal, but it will be inferior to membership of the EU. May’s speech is well crafted as political theatre. She has got people feeling good about accepting an inferior situation.
Why do things fail? Now, in a technical sense, I’ve had quite a long experience finding out. Accidents, incidents, breakdowns, crashes, catastrophise, mistakes, mishaps, errors, call it what you will – “to err is human” (to forgive divine) so the English idiom goes. Never will there be a time when we get everything right all the time. Don’t be misled. That idiom is not pessimistic, as if to say there’s nothing we can do, in a fatalistic way.
A couple of subjects have come up during the week. Both have implications for British agriculture of all shapes and sizes. One is immigration and the other is State subsidies.
When I hear Mogg, May, Fox, Hannan and other right-wing Tory politicians talk it reminds me of the fable of the scorpion and the frog. Actually, that’s not quite true because, although that fable was deep in my subconscious somewhere, it wasn’t until my wife remined me of it that it truly came to mind.
I shouldn’t start a sentence; whether we like it or not. It’s too easy to say that a state of affairs is unchangeable and give no proof to that effect. C.S. Lewis said: “Whether we like it or not, God intends to give us what we need, not what we now think we want.” I don’t agree with him but there it is again; no evidence needed because God is invoked.
Given the realisation that Brexit leaves a bad taste in people’s mouth and slowly but surely the public are turning against the politicians who are driving the Country off the cliff, its surprising that those who choose a different course of action are not having more success. When asked: Brexit would you vote the same again? It’s clear many people have changed their minds but why are they not being adequately represented?
Many people are aware of the Richter scale is used to rate the magnitude of earthquakes. As I waked into a supermarket this lunchtime, I happened to glance the front page of the Daily Telegraph. It was plastered with another one of those stories about how much safety and richer we are all going to be because of Brexit. I didn’t have a chair to fall off but if I did I would have fallen off it. I know it’s the silly season but the ludicrous notions that are spread by the right-wing Press, as a monster face saver, are just beyond belief. The detail isn’t worth bothering about but the effect of such plagues of wrongheaded wibble are real. Normality isn’t normal anymore. It’s disturbing.
There’s so much to indicate what’s going wrong that I’m amazed people are not making more noise. Pound down, inflation up, pay going nowhere, companies moving off-shore and a trade secretary eulogising about selling sunglasses to the world. I know it’s the annual silly season but these are real and not imaginary events. If we don’t take heed of such indicators then further troubles will results with certainty.
I don’t believe the story that many of those we voted Remain have come around to the idea of Brexit. What I do think has happened is a lot of people have been turned off the whole debate because of the crude conduct of a great number of Brexit advocates. There’s the unfortunate “it will be all right on the night” thinking too. Somewhat because we haven’t been accustomed to extreme politics in Britain there’s an underlying assumption that however crazy the talking, sound, solid and sober people in the background will work it out. The reality is that assumption no longer stands.