British – Page 55 – John Vincent

Wrong turn

Let’s be clear. Brexit is built on a fantasy. It’s a massive disruption aimed at the wrong target.

Yes, we know the world has changed since the formation of the European community. Yes, we know China and India are growing more rapidly than Europe. Yes, we know no one likes the language of rules and regulations. But to use these three as reasons for unilateral separation from our nearest neighbours is as likely to succeed as a five-year-old is to master quantum physics.

Global connectivity, interaction and interdependence are growing. Like it or not, no one Country is going to be able to halt social and technical “progress” unless its willing to make its people poorer. There’s always the dark ages option.

Sure, this makes people like me, over 50, uncomfortable and romantically starry eyed about so called simpler times. My career started in the pre-digital world where computers were filing cabinet sized number crunchers only States and big companies could afford. Today, with talk of Artificial Intelligence not as science fiction but as science fact, its hard to know what will happen next.

For these reasons, and more major institutions need a radical shift in gear. It doesn’t matter if they are international, regional, national, city, town or village we need to do business differently.

So, where Brexit pits one against another it’s a hundred percent wrong.

Uncertain rules

Simon Whalley’s[1] analysis shows that there’s a lot that remains uncertain. Even with the UK exploring the terms on which the UK could remain part of the European Aviation Safety Agency [EASA] there is no assurance of success. If an accommodation is achieved there’s still the thorny problem of being subject to rules that will be put in place without a UK vote for or against.

It might be that the undeclared strategic aim of the UK Government is to diverge from the European framework of rules. That would make EASA membership a transitional arrangement.

Given my experience, I’m forced to look at the evolving situation as the past gone into reverse. In the 1990s we were slowly but surely moving away from British Civil Airworthiness Requirements (BCARs) towards European ones as being organised by the Joint Aviation Authorities (JAA). This progressive movement, of over more than a decade, created the stepping stones that made EASA possible. If we put all that into administrative reverse it will take a couple of decades to get to a situation of greater autonomy. Even that will not mean absolute control given the UK’s obligations within the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) and the large number of bilateral agreement that will need to be put in place to replace the European ones.

I don’t deny that divergence may have one or two benefits. However, I will agree that the costs of divergence far exceed any of the potential benefits or, at least, that is the experience of the past.

Take the case where there is a major fatal accident of a civil aircraft on British soil. Post-accident, there is the potential to change aviation rules faster if the only consideration is a domestic outcome. Divergence will then certainly then arise quite rapidly. What can be bad about that? Well, there are a couple of issues. Rapid rule changes can be highly politically driven running the risk that the true nature of a technical problem is not addressed. Also, given the extremely rare occurrence of fatal accidents there’s a lot to be gained from aggregating information. If all energy and effort is focused on national problems much can be missed. In other words, the accident that others have maybe the accident you have tomorrow, if you don’t pay attention.

Pro-Brexit reporters have commented; if Australia and New Zealand can do it why can’t we? That is; to not have an empowered regional organisation addressing aviation. Also, such remarks have been addressed about the Gulf States. Look at these large aircraft operators and they don’t have an EASA, do they?

The truth is complex. A lot of these simple analogies don’t stand up to scrutiny. In fact, at international level more and more regional groupings are being established and recognised by ICAO. Also, the highly integrated and interconnected nature of design, production, maintenance and operations in Europe does mean we are not like any other global region.

Although we (UK) are in reverse gear let’s hope that a handbrake turn takes place before we hit the barrier.

[1] https://www.aerosociety.com/news/brexit-and-easa-a-way-forward/

PM at a lectern

The much-billed speech on Britain’s future relationship with the EU is out. Prime Minister, Theresa May stood at a lectern and read a winding text that dipped into the live subjects of the moment. Watching a recording of her big speech was like watching an Open University seminar. Last year, to appease her Party, Theresa May used the slogan: Brexit means Brexit. This has gone. Many of the costs of leaving the European Union were addressed. There was little, if anything about the benefits of leaving.

So, if Brexit happens here are a few of the troublesome problems seeking solutions.

There’s a positive recognition that a “level playing field” is essential for an EU-UK relationship to be sustainable. The devil is in the detail and on that front much remains to be discovered.

She continues to say that the European Court of Justice (ECJ) is ruled out of deciding disputes between EU-UK. Its clear that the ECJ plays a part but what part is yet to be determined.

The Prime Minister stressed the importance of a good deal on the flow of “data” between EU and UK. This aspiration makes good sense if only a whole new way of working didn’t have to be set-up in one year.

She accepts that people will still want to work and study in EU countries. However, there’s no clarity on how such movement will be relatively easy.

Looking at ways the UK could remain part of some EU Agencies is to be welcomed. However, our membership will be inferior to the 27 EU Member States in the three mentioned: the European Medicines Agency, the European Chemicals Agency, and the European Aviation Safety Agency.

Divergence from the EU on Agriculture seems inevitable. Its assumed that the maintenance of high standards continues to be the UK’s goal. An assumption like this could get traded away in the need for a future deal with Countries like the US.

The Prime Minister suggested that she wants to remain part of the science and innovation framework programmes. There will be a major cost to this objective.

Overall, I would quote Benjamin Franklin: “Necessity never made a good bargain.” The UK needs a good deal, but it will be inferior to membership of the EU. May’s speech is well crafted as political theatre. She has got people feeling good about accepting an inferior situation.

Topsy-Turvy World

It’s strange the path Theresa May has taken. During the UK referendum, that took place more than 500 days ago, she argued for staying in the European Union by making Security one of the reasons for doing so. Now, as Prime Minister she has flipped and is unmoving in her pursuit of Brexit. But on the platform at a major Security conference in Germany #MSC2018, she chooses agreements that are persuasive against Brexit.

It truly is a topsy-turvy world. Whilst EU Member States move towards a permanent structured cooperation in #EUdefence, Theresa May opts to try to both Leave and Remain at the same time.

She keeps repeating arguments in favour of cherry picking that she must know go down like a lead balloon in Europe. If Brexit happens, the future UK-EU relationship will be one where the UK is deemed a “third country”. Now, it maybe that the EU will try to resolve security issues separately from Brexit. Nevertheless, there’s no better deal than the one the UK has inside the EU today.

If ideology is getting in the way, there’s no doubt that its on both sides of the UK-EU negotiations. Theresa May was not speaking to the raucous galleries of the House of Commons where there are too many zealots, here she was talking to Nation States. It’s no good accusing the EU of lack of will for pragmatic cooperation when the red lines have been tabled by the UK.

When talking about a new Treaty, she says: “It must be respectful of the sovereignty of both the UK and the EU’s legal orders. So, for example, when participating in EU Agencies the UK will respect the remit of the European Court of Justice.” This does seem to throw aside one red line and is pragmatic and the most positive line in the whole speech.

It truly is a topsy-turvy world. One thing is clear, if Brexit happens, or not, a security partnership in Europe is not an option it’s an absolute necessity. Grandstanding at the Munich Security Conference doesn’t much help. Cooperation is essential to tackle such challenges as cyber-attacks.

I agree with Theresa May when she says: “Europe’s security is our security.” The UK’s foreign policy will be defined by the common interests it has with the EU. The best possible future would be one where the UK remains in the EU, working with our partners for the security of us all.

A study in failure

Why do things fail? Now, in a technical sense, I’ve had quite a long experience finding out. Accidents, incidents, breakdowns, crashes, catastrophise, mistakes, mishaps, errors, call it what you will – “to err is human” (to forgive divine) so the English idiom goes. Never will there be a time when we get everything right all the time. Don’t be misled. That idiom is not pessimistic, as if to say there’s nothing we can do, in a fatalistic way.

It’s a New Year but the legacy of 2016 and 17 will be with us for some time yet. Whatever I have read, seen or discussed I remain opposed to Brexit. It just doesn’t make sense and it’s the wrong solution to our common problems. However, I’m beginning to think that its failure is inevitable not because of the ardent campaigning of those like me who oppose this exit but because of those trying to implement it. Ironic isn’t it? All those loud and boisterous voices are just stirring up the quicksand so that we might sink quicker.

At the heart of the reason why Brexit will fail is the shear lack of competence of those trying to make it happen. Competence is the ability to do something successfully. The subject can be divided into three components of knowledge, skills and attitude. I believe, it’s the Government’s deficiency in all these three that is the reason Brexit will fail as well as it being a flawed idea.

Time and time again the knowledge provided by experts is ignored. Time and time again a political excuse is used to say why sound advice is side-lined. So, that’s failure number one.

Next its not too difficult to see the poor skills demonstrated by prominent Ministers in the Brexit camp. Even when the whiz around the world at great expense the results are nothing more than bluff and prevarication. So that’s failure number two.

To complete set there’s an attitude problem. Making a big transformation requires real vision. Someone must articulate a positive vision in a way that is; believable, honest and inclusive. What we are getting from the Brexiters is the opposite; unbelievable, dishonest and sectarian. Its born of a narrow view that those that voted Remain are an enemy within.

Today, Leave and Remain supporters want to understand where we are going. Brexit is doomed. Its about time to wake up. A vision is needed that creates unity and not division. We can transform not only ourselves but Europe too. Better that be our aim.

Pinocchio’s Government

A couple of subjects have come up during the week. Both have implications for British agriculture of all shapes and sizes. One is immigration and the other is State subsidies.

There are some tales being told by the Westminster Government and its supporters that should be making their noses grow in the way of Pinocchio. Problem is that these tales tap into the basic prejudices held by a high percentage of the readers of the right-wing Press in England. This is British politics, so I should not be surprised that a faction of the Conservative Party is driving stories to advance its own Brexit fantasies.

Let’s take immigration first. Evidence is out there to show that free movement of people in Europe does not take jobs from British workers. It’s true, Mrs May in her Home Office days, endeavoured to supress that evidence but it’s there nevertheless. With the latest announcements from the Conservative Government there is the expectation that British workers will be queuing up to take the jobs vacated by mainland Europeans as they are all sent home in a couple of years’ time.

The only que I can see forming is a line of salesmen promoting the latest systems of automation to all and sundry in farming and horticulture. It’s not long ago that the idea of robots milking cows seemed the stuff of science fiction but not any longer. Relentlessly agriculture is shedding labour and adopting such wonders as self-driving tractors and domes to monitor crops.

Telling low-skilled British workers that there will be fields of jobs post-Brexit is a horrible deception. I hope people do not fall for it.

The other subject that caught my eye was that of the future of agricultural subsidies. Whatever assurances Minister may utter to the countryside they cannot run away from the cost of Brexit. The Treasury’s store of our tax money is going to be needed for health, education and more bureaucrats above the call to spread it on the land.

The removal of subsidies is a political choice and in some cases warranted. Providing support to highly profitable large-scale farming, like the so-called “grain barons” isn’t sustainable. However, to invite wide-spread industrialisation and the final destruction of the family farm is inevitable. It’s likely to empty the hillsides, coastal margins and highlands, import more basic foodstuff and turn the countryside a semi-urban theme park.

Again, Ministers are practicing a horrible post-Brexit deception.

straighten up and fly right

WP_20170826_008 When I hear Mogg, May, Fox, Hannan and other right-wing Tory politicians talk it reminds me of the fable of the scorpion and the frog. Actually, that’s not quite true because, although that fable was deep in my subconscious somewhere, it wasn’t until my wife remined me of it that it truly came to mind.

All of this started with me listening to “straighten up and fly right” by Nat King Cole in a coffee shop this morning. What a great song, by the way.

The story goes like this: A scorpion asks a frog to carry it across a pond. The frog says; “But won’t you sting me?”. Reassuringly the scorpion answers; “No. if I did that we will both drown”. After a moment of hesitation, the frog agrees to carry the scorpion. Then half way across the water the scorpion stings the frog. Alarmed, the frog goes; “Why did you do that?” and the scorpion replies in the only way it can “Because it’s in my nature.”

Well having given the controls to the ship of State to right-wing Tory politicians at General Election, what do you suppose is happening in the UK? The way the situation is panning out, I think we might all be the frogs. It seems illogical, irrational and downright stupid to dooming us all with Brexit but it doesn’t take five minutes with the evidence to see what’s happening.

If ever there was a time we needed to say to the Government either “straighten up and fly right” or go, it’s now. Our situation is no animal fable but it is the economic success of the Nation that is at stake. The creature’s nature is becoming evident as we find ourselves midway in the Brexit negotiations.

Like it or not

WP_20170826_006 I shouldn’t start a sentence; whether we like it or not. It’s too easy to say that a state of affairs is unchangeable and give no proof to that effect. C.S. Lewis said: “Whether we like it or not, God intends to give us what we need, not what we now think we want.” I don’t agree with him but there it is again; no evidence needed because God is invoked.

So, I’ll get around this conundrum and offer some reasons why we just must accept we cannot change a situation that is proving to be more than challenging.

It’s a technocratic world. Or you could say; the geeks have it. My reference goes back to the mid-70s. In that time, we lived in an analogue world. Yes, there were exotic computers being used and predictions coming from science fiction about robots and endless leisure time ahead but most day-to-day experiences involved simple stuff like a pen and paper and a telephone.

To an extent, early digital equipment started to bring more structure into work life as kitchen table management gave way of planning tools and schedules. In the 1980s, the widespread take-up of personal computers meant that the creation of elaborate Gantt charts and spreadsheets became every day. A need for structure and systems gradually overtook the “seat of the pants” way of working.

This was not for everyone, as some organisations considered themselves immune or languished in a holding pattern. A danger of decline faced those who resisted adopting the latest technology and ways of working. Generally, the institutes of Government were slow to change. In particular, the long-lived democratic institutions struggled with the wave of systematic ways of working that have become the mode.

What’s my point? It’s evident to me that, this week, the signals coming from negotiations in Brussels are not good. That part of what is going on is a clash between the new and the old. When systematic and methodical people meet casual, make-it-up-as-you-go along people there’s inevitably a clash. Who’s in the right or who’s in the wrong hardly matters at all if two parties can’t see eye-to-eye. Let’s go back to my initial assertion; it’s a technocratic world. Well it is and the laissez-faire people who try to deny that fact aren’t going to be winners.

Why, oh why, oh why?

WP_20170818_009 Given the realisation that Brexit leaves a bad taste in people’s mouth and slowly but surely the public are turning against the politicians who are driving the Country off the cliff, its surprising that those who choose a different course of action are not having more success. When asked: Brexit would you vote the same again? It’s clear many people have changed their minds but why are they not being adequately represented?

I think there’s a whole series of reasons. Like a scatter gun I’ve listed a few here bellow. Some are big but changeable, some are small but irritating and others hang around like a bad smell. Here’s my list of mistakes made by pro-European campaigners.

Firstly, recognising that forming ghettos of self-affirming friendly parties hasn’t worked. Multiple voices in multiple places all with nuanced differences makes for chaos and despair. Most of all, the inability to form one big coherent group to rally around still evades us. Yet, pages of history show that one or two great orators can capture a moment and transform a situation. So far, the great British orator to speak forth on Europe just hasn’t got to the right lectern. All I can say is; don’t leave it too late.

Secondly, wasting time arguing with trolls, wind-ups and opponents whose wilfully tactics are to keep other people’s wheels springing on unproductive and soul-destroying activity. It’s so human to want to engage and state why we think and feel the way we do but the web is full of scoundrels who will just tie you up in knots. The fear of the empty chair is real. It is to think that by stepping back one’s opponents will have a free hand. Often the reality is that they will just have an empty room.

Third, is starting off on the wrong foot. That’s accepting to reason on the ground set by opponents. It seems obvious but a great deal of time is spent defensively arguing a point of view from the back foot. I say; Brexiters must justify themselves. Those forcing changes of massive proportions on a reluctant Country must be made to answer tough questions. Where they fail to do so, then that’s the place to shine a bright light.

Fourth, backing down when hit with the nastiest of aggressive insults and vile behaviour. Bullies love Brexit. It gives them an outlet for anger and rage from deep inside. The perpetual blaming of “others” but mostly the EU for everything that make people unhappy is just cheap and twisted. Unfortunately, this taps into something that lingers in the dark condors of human nature. In the end, the only way to deal with this phenomenon is the way to deal with any bully – stand your ground.

Fifth, not presenting HOPE as the vanguard. It fundamental that, to win we need a better plan. Not just a return to the ways of old. Not just a call for calm and stability, although that’s important. Not just to dismiss the concerns of others but something bigger. Projecting a vision of a better Europe where we come together to solve common problems is part of the equation. Standing on the foundations of western civilisation to make a better world Europe can and will succeed. Our best hope is a hopeful vision.

Now my list is random and misses a lot but there are points here that need attention.

The scale of the problem

WP_20170818_019 Many people are aware of the Richter scale is used to rate the magnitude of earthquakes. As I waked into a supermarket this lunchtime, I happened to glance the front page of the Daily Telegraph. It was plastered with another one of those stories about how much safety and richer we are all going to be because of Brexit. I didn’t have a chair to fall off but if I did I would have fallen off it. I know it’s the silly season but the ludicrous notions that are spread by the right-wing Press, as a monster face saver, are just beyond belief. The detail isn’t worth bothering about but the effect of such plagues of wrongheaded wibble are real. Normality isn’t normal anymore. It’s disturbing.

It got me thinking that we need a scale to judge the ridiculousness of a Brexit story. A minor bit of fake news about a foreign cat up a tree could be down at one end of the scale. Up at the other end is a front-page story so utterly monstrously absurd that it ruptures the fabric of reality for everyone who reads or hears it. There may even be a potential for developing a Brexit News Story warning system. Now, following Mr Richter’s wise thinking, a scale of zero to ten might just do it. Let’s say:

Between zero and one, not much is felt. Rationality isn’t disturbed. Emotions are not aroused. Any instrument of measurement hardly flickers.

Between one and four you know something crazy is on the table. It gets a bit tricky just to pretend it’s not happening. You are starting to feel slightly annoyed.

Between four and five loud expressions, such as; “they can’t be serious” start to become usable. You really feel you are in the company of strangers from another planet.

Between five and six, damaged reputations are common. Heavy handed “newspeak” is all over the place. Bogus university prophets come out of the woodwork to justly the impossible or improbable.

Between six and seven the straight jacket needs to be on hand. Tin foil helmets are mandatory. Everything is scribbled in fine green ink. Fever pitch anger oozes out of radios upsetting even the hardest heart.

Between seven and eight the total devastation of normality starts to occur. Lemmings fling themselves off cliffs. A rift in time and space seems inevitable. All British cats become millionaires.

Upwards of eight is a place no none sane wants to go. Monkeys at keyboards really do start to write better stories than journalists. The largest ever read or heard piles of nonsense rarely go this far.

My forecast is that over the next 12 months there will be a storm of fives with one or two sevens in certain areas. We should avoid the eights but there is no guarantee.