Category: Uncategorized

As we might expect there’s a fair amount of rabble rousing going on in Birmingham this week[1].  Although they are the political party in power now, it maybe as well to ignore the poorly judgement and fake anger of most of the speeches at the Conservative Party conference.  Stepping back for a moment there are realities that need to be faced.  All the bullish froth, finger wagging, and paranoia cannot cancel hard cold facts.

Although Chancellor Hammond has been portrayed as Eeyore[2], he at least had one or two grown-up things to say this week.  “The global internet giants must contribute fairly to funding our public services”, now who can’t agree with that?

At the same time, Mrs May and he are wedded to a plan called “Chequers”.  However, no majority exists in the UK Parliament to pass such a plan.  In addition, the EU has indicated that the plan, as it stands, is not on.   Unless both sides, doing the real negotiation soften their “red lines” there will be no agreement.  Just to heighten the tension, no majority exists, or will exit in the UK Parliament for a “no deal” outcome.

Crisis? What Crisis?[3] The album cover art of the album of that name, by the 70s rock band Supertramp, is remarkably apt for the times.

It is still possible to converge to reach a deal by November, but it is mighty sporty.  That would be in time for the December European Council on Friday 14^th.   Then the ratification processes can take place.  I don’t suppose any Parliamentarian would wish to be having a “meaningful vote” on the deal over Christmas.  It is astonishing that, having exhausted more than 2-years of debate over Brexit we continue with such a lack of clarity.  If whatever comes out of the negotiation mixer is passed, then some sanity will be restored for a short-while, at least.

The near-sacred status of 29 March 2019 could be challenged but it is unlikely.  The last voting session before the European Parliament (EP) breaks for elections is 18 April 2019.   Dealing with a whole new EP might not be such a good idea.

So, within the next few weeks we will know if a relatively smooth transition is to take place or an almighty crisis is coming down the tracks.  Then I’ll remember Shelley’s great poem:

“My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;

Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!

Nothing beside remains. Round the decay

Of that colossal Wreck, boundless and bare

The lone and level sands stretch far away.”

 

[1] #CPC18

[2] Eeyore is a character in the Winnie-the-Pooh books by A. A. Milne.

[3] Crisis? What Crisis? is the 4th album by the rock band Supertramp, released in 1975 (Year of the first referendum on Europe).

The European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) was formally established on 27 September 2002 and become operational one year later.  The main objectives of the EU were strongly supported by the aeronautical industry.  It was to create a body capable of ensuring a uniform, high level of aviation safety and independent of national interests.  This included the free movement of aeronautical products and the automatic recognition of certificates.  EASA was given the power to carry out legally binding certification tasks, overcoming the limitations of the Joint Aviation Authorities (JAA).

In the UK, organisation approvals have transitioned from national requirements BCARs[1] and JARs[2] to European rules as Regulation EU No 748/2012.  Part-21 subpart G of this Regulation concerns the production of aircraft or engines or other products.  This certification of production organisations[3] is for the demonstration of their capability and means to meet their airworthiness obligations.  It’s also a way to confer specified associated privileges.

It is worth noting that organisation approvals issued or recognised by the UK in accordance with the JAA system, and valid before 28 September 2003, where accepted as complying with the above EU Regulation.  So, for production organisations operating in Europe, the transition from the JAA systems to the EASA system was a progressive development.

Today, European National Aviation Authorities (NAAs) need to have the resources necessary to undertake the approval of organisations.  Once initiated, this means that the NAA and approved organisation have an on-going relationship for, at least, as long as any of their products are in-service.

The EASA Form 1 is the Authorised Release Certificate released by a Part-21 POA holder for stating that a product, a part, or a component was manufactured in accordance with approved design data.

Post March 31, 2019, Regulation EU No 748/2012 will not apply in the UK.  However, for continuity it may be adopted as part of a Withdraw Agreement and taken-up in UK legislation.  In the case of a “no-deal” scenario the situation is unclear.  Any of the privileges that come from a European POA remain in doubt.  I assume we will have a National POA with National privileges that may or may not be accepted/recognised by others.  With an accepted/recognised Authorised Release Certificate products are deemed airworthy.  Without one they are not.

[1] British Civil Airworthiness Requirements (BCAR).

[2] Joint Aviation Requirements (JARs).

[3] Production Organisation Approval (POA).

Now, maybe I’ll last until 2040.  Sure, as eggs is eggs, I won’t last forever.  Looking back from that world ahead, what will we be taking about when we remember the 2010s?  What will be then the history of 30 years back.  So, today that’s like looking at the 1980s.

Got to make a few assumptions if this is going to make any sense.  Technology will have continued its onward march.  World population will be about 9 billion.  Climate change will be in the News.  We will be amazed by the discoveries that science makes.

Just about everything will be more interconnected, interactive and interdependent than ever was imagined.  But some people will still be living in the house they grew up in.  Some communities will be on the up and others left behind.

What will the social, economic and political world look like in 2040?  Perhaps enduring themes will remain our preoccupation.  It seems to me that we go through cycles.  One time we wish for autonomy, sovereignty and independence.  Next time we wish for community, solidarity and union. In time the pendulum swings backwards and forwards.

So, looking back on the late 2010s the UK Brexit experiment is the pendulum hitting the end stops.

Will it be reflected on as good or bad?

I’m going to say bad.  One of the key reasons for saying this is that Brexit became an obsession that continued long after the attraction faded.  The bigger problems that we all faced were not addressed by Brexit.  It became a side show that enthralled the UK but meant little to the rest of the world.

To take a quote from an unlikely hit film of 1994: “You can’t stop progress” (Muriel’s Wedding).  By the way, that didn’t work out so well for Muriel’s father who took pride in trying to get rich from corrupt deals.  Perhaps a more erudite quotation is in order: “Progress is impossible without change, and those who cannot change their minds cannot change anything”. George Bernard Shaw.

If advice from 2040 comes flying through a worm hole in space and time it will be: change direction in 2018 because Brexit will just mean disappointment.  Work on the worlds real problems.

The European Union has civil aviation agreements with many Countries.  In their current form, those international agreements will not apply to the UK when it leaves the EU in a year’s time.  Unless otherwise specified, the EU will see the UK as a Third Country after the leaving date. Transition arrangements may happen to maintain a degree of stability.  However, post Brexit, the EU cannot bind other Third Countries to respect an agreement it has with one Third Country.  Each is a sovereign State with aviation interests of its own.

As an outcome, the legalities and the political reality may not be the same in 2019 but change will take place in the negotiating strength of the EU, UK and other Countries.  In other words, pre-Brexit agreements bind parties but post-Brexit there’s much more of a “free for all”.  Touting a slogan like: Global Britain, is fine for a domestic audience but cuts little weight in hardnosed negotiations where one party is vulnerable due to its need for continuity.

The implications of Third Country status are already being played out as the News items on the Galileo satellite system are showing.  Naturally, EU Member States have privileges with respect to EU funded projects.  It’s not surprising that the benefits of membership do not automatically extend to non-members or former members.

As an illustration let’s take one small technical example.  For good or ill, there’s a high expectation that our skies are going to see Drones flying around everywhere and anywhere.  Well, not exactly since there’s need for a tight regulatory framework and enabling technology to be put in place to ensue that Drones can be exploited safely.  This effort must be done so that the results will work throughout the whole of Europe and wider if possible.

Amongst the standards for Drones there’s discussion about E-Identification and Geo-Fencing.  Two technical features that could be mandated to ensure that every Drone can be identified, and every Drone can be restricted from going to prohibited places.  Those developments are expected to have a significant role for the Galileo satellite system.

The UK being outside of the mainstream, isn’t going to mean exclusion from all the technical discussions but when it comes to hard and fast decisions then that’s a different matter.  There will be standards and there will be legislation to make the market work.  In cases like this one, rather than taking back control the path the UK is taking is giving up control.

There’s several recent articles written about Aviation and Brexit.  Some are better than others.  All raise vital points for discussion.  Here, I thought I’d write this page to deal with one or two anomalies that often crop up.

Brexit is going to complicate aviation in Europe.  Absolutely no doubt about that fact.  However, the earth will not stop rotating and all planes will not stop flying on one day.

In aviation there are international bodies, intergovernmental bodies and the European Union.  With full agreement by the Member States, from its origins in the Treaty of Rome through all the Treaties, the EU has expanded its range of activities.  Now, before any further discussion it’s useful to look at the division of competences within the EU.  Transport is a shared competence between the EU and EU countries.   That means the EU countries exercise their own competence where the EU does not exercise, or has decided not to exercise, its competence.

Thus, changes in European aviation didn’t happen in one massive swoop, they are on-going and will be on-going for a long time into the future.  In all aspects of aviation, the EU and EU countries can legislate and adopt legally binding acts, but they don’t have to unless there’s a need.

By 1992, the foundations of a common transport policy had been laid[1].  The notion of a shared competence continues to be important throughout subsequent developments.

Another key point is to remark is that transport should not been seen in isolation.  As European policy developed so the environment became more prominent.  Aviation and policy related to research and innovation should not be separated.  Also, consumer rights is a key component.  This meant that not only did the Member States and European Commission need to work closely together but the different directorates of the Commission had to coordinate too.

Now back to international bodies, intergovernmental bodies and the European Union.  Grandmother of them all is ICAO, the International Civil Aviation Organisation in Montreal.  It’s sometimes referred to as the House of the States.  192 of them to be precise.  ICAO has a regional structure.  Its European office is in Paris.  To complicate even more, the Paris office is shared with, the European Civil Aviation Conference[2].  ECAC is an intergovernmental organisation that was established by the ICAO and the Council of Europe.  So, even if no EU aviation interest existed there is a set of institutions addressing European aviation.  And I haven’t even mentioned EUROCONTROL.

Much of what has been written recently refers to the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA).  This EU body came into operation in September 2003.  It had been discussed, debated and theorised over a decade or more.  Built on the foundation of the Joint Aviation Authorities (JAA), initially EASA took over the task of aircraft certification.  Gradually, the remit of EASA was expanded.

This happened in a way that was fully aligned with the notion of shared competence.  The European aviation system is not a federal system as it is in the US.  EASA and the National Aviation Authorities work together.  One maybe tasked to write new rules and the other would be tasked to implement those rules.

If we take the subject of licencing as one example of the work of EASA and the NAAs.  In civil aviation, pilots, engineers and air traffic controllers need licences to work.

I’ve seen it written that post-Brexit, licences issued by UK Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) will no longer be valid for operating in the EU when the UK ceases to be an EU member state.  However, in an international context it’s not that simple.  Today, EASA licences are issues by the NAAs, including the UK CAA.  These licences are fully compliant with ICAO Standards and Recommended practices.  As such it would be difficult for a European State, as an ICAO Member State to not recognise UK issued licences without some good technical reasons.

Where the UK may need to re-establish its competence, if it did drop out of the EU system would be in the field of aviation rulemaking.  Even then it could just copy the output coming from the EU and EASA in Cologne and put a UK label on it.

The situation could get exceedingly messy.  In this next year, methodical, patient and smart civil servants in both Brussels and London need to put down on paper exactly how the new arrangement will work.  That can’t wait too long because eventually the auditor will come knocking on the door and ask all sorts of difficult questions.

[1] https://europa.eu/european-union/topics/transport_en

 

[2] https://www.ecac-ceac.org/

 

There are those totemic Brexit issues that keep surfacing.  Maybe they are not the ones that are top of the list on your way to work or the supermarket, but the media are fixated by topics like the British Passport.

So, let’s talk about passports.  Listening to a Government Minister on the radio this morning its like they had no choice but to award a major contract to a foreign company.  Well, that’s the first misguiding steer of the day.  Other European countries make this a matter of security and thus set aside from the single market procurement rules.  It’s just another example of Brexiters giving a false steer to get themselves off a hook.

The move to buy future British passports from a European company may be perfectly justified based on quality and value for money.  Those who carp about an affront to nationalism need to think carefully about what they are suggesting.  Even if Brexit happens, in a post-Brexit world Government procurement will still need to be fair, open and consider the need for a “level playing field” for contractors and suppliers.

One of the most basic tenants of trade is the notion of reciprocation.  In other words, I’ll buy your goods and services if you buy my goods and services.  The assumption being that we all want the best goods and services supplied at the best price.

True that a large section of Brexiters are out and out nationalists.  As such they don’t care much about getting the best possible deal if its restricted to the Country’s borders.  Having a stamp on it to say that its 100% British is the only consideration even to the extent of damaging our export markets.

European procurement rules give us access to a market place worth 100s of billions.  It would be an almighty foot shooting exercise to cut ourselves off from that market.

Without a doubt the Brexiteers have betrayed British fishing.  On the table is a proposal for Britain to effectively remain in the EU Common Fisheries Policy for almost two years after March 2019.  Yes, this is a practical and pragmatic measure in a long and detailed negotiation but its runs in the opposite direction to the one pushed for by the likes of backbench MP Jacob Rees-Mogg.

Ministers have defended their position by asking the hard core Brexiters, who like to think they run Britain, to hold fire and play a long game.  This is much like asking your favourite football team to carry on loosing because one day over the horizon they might just win.

All this political theatre continues apace even when there’s no clear Fisheries Policy to replace the one we have now.

It’s bazaar to see angry fishing protesters throw dead fish into the Thames river outside The Houses of Parliament in London.  Perhaps a nice meal for a passing gull or Conger Eel.  Today, indeed there are such fierce fish in the river Thames[1].   It’s a good sign of how much this major tidal river has been cleaned up over numerous decades.

I don’t need to say that; British rivers were in an alarming state before Britain joined the EU.  Concerted environmental action[2] across Europe has improved the situation markedly even though problems remain.  The Thames clean-up campaign has been an internationally success.   This most British of estuaries supports over 120 species of fish, is a key nursery ground and plays a big part in supporting North Sea fish stocks.  I don’t know what the protesters think is going to happen if Britain leaves the EU.  The management of fish stocks will continue to be a complex issue that no one Country can monopolise.

Brexiteers will betray the fishing industry.  Brexiteers will betray the framers.  Brexiteers will betray every single British subject (or citizen).  Its just a matter of time.  Doesn’t matter if its March 2019 or 21 months later the betrayal is inevitable.

It isn’t dead fish we should be picturing but the dead parrot[3] of Brexit.

[1] http://thames-explorer.org.uk/knowledge-base/wildlife/forna/fish/

 

[2] http://ec.europa.eu/environment/basics/health-wellbeing/clean-water/index_en.htm

 

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_Parrot_sketch