John Vincent

Change doesn’t come for free.  It’s a common misconception that moving from one way of doing things to another can be done without a lot of effort.  Over simplification is used to persuade people to make a change because their reluctance may be difficult to overcome.  This is drama being played out big time in the Brexit debate.  Week after week, Brexit supporting politicians come up with bland statements to try to offer assurance and comfort to their supporters.  Last year, Liam Fox said; the Brexit deal will be the “easiest thing in human history”.  David Davis was criticised for his “simple and easy” Brexit claim.  Former Ministers have said trade talks should be “easy”.

Rather than relief this insipid populism sends a shiver down the spine of anyone who has had to do serious negotiations in the past.  Agreements and Treaties, by their nature, bond those who sign for a significant period.  If they didn’t do that, they would be worth the paper that they are written on.  All Treaties between States are, in fact, a pooling of sovereignty.  Such arrangements bind States to act and behave in a consistent manner, even in disputes.

As if it was a business, signing a mediocre contract can be an impediment and a danger to future success.  So, words matter, and they matter even more when they are put down in public to a loud fanfare.  That said, every practical business has contacts.  Every successful State has Treaties.  It really is an embodiment of the John Donne’s words: No man is an island entire of itself.  We do not thrive when isolated from others, especially neighbours.

For all the reasons above the attack on British civil servants, over the weekend, was one of the most short-sighted folly’s that hard-line Brexit MPs have made so far, this year.  At a time when huge efforts are going to be needed to act with agility and creativity to draft a vast array of detailed texts, its not wise to hit the people you need.  It shows that those MPs who acted in this way have little comprehension for the impact of their actions.

In summary, this year has started with little achieved and a long journey ahead with not much time remaining.  All in all, a time when doubling or tripling of efforts are going to be needed rather than the insipid populism that is coming from senior politicians.  If Brexit happens under these circumstances, then some experts’ negative predictions wont just be predictions.

The image of Britain standing in world wars against German domination has fed Euroscepticism in the UK.  Yes, German Ambassador, Dr Peter Ammon has a good point.

Being 57 years old, I can see the root cause of a degree of Euroscepticism in my generation and the one above me.  Please treat this observation as its intended.  Its not hostile.  There’s no way I’m saying that there is something inherently bad about everyone who watched TV or the movies in the 60s and 70s.

Many of the most wonderful films of my childhood are war stories.  Great drama and daring acts captured our imaginations in grainy black and white.  Often the theme has the undertones of David and Goliath, where huge odds are overcome to escape peril.  Danger on all sides as charismatic British actors portrayed heroic characters winning out.  I’ll just list a few classic movies that come to mind: The Flight of the Phoenix (1965), The Hill (1965), The Great Escape (1963), Ice Cold in Alex (1958) and A Matter of Life and Death (1946).  Love them all.

That was the setting.  The Sunday afternoon TV matinee movie was watched by many.  There wasn’t the proliferation of choice that the media present now.  No wonder many British people see the world through a prism of 20^th century history.

Even wider than that, several of my Secondary School teachers revelled in telling stories of their war time experiences.  As children and young adults, we lapped up those stories even if they did generate occasional humour.  We would mock and mimic repeated tales in the manner of Monty Python.  It wasn’t being disrespectful.  It was a sense that the past and the modern world were inevitably in a tense battle for the future.  The future that we were to be a part of.

So, why am I not a Leaver?  I was too young to vote this the first referendum that took us into the Common Market.  That said, as a 15-year-old I was acutely aware of the debate.  In the West Country farming community, where I grew-up, it was a regular topic of conversation.  Local Conservatives were campaigning to stay in Europe.

From the day I left school, there’s been a European context to my further education and work.  I’ve been fortnuate to travel.  If I add it all up, over 40 years, and put the pros and cons on a set of scales they tip soundly in favour of being a part of the European Union.  Those scales tip that way whether I weigh-up facts or emotions.  Both my head and heart are convinced that Brexit is a dead end.  Let’s hope more and more people see it that way this year.

Anytime something goes badly wrong its human to look around for something or someone to blame.  It often a destructive emotional human response to a grim situation.  However controlled, objective and rational you maybe its remarkably difficult to hold back and think through what’s going on without the temptation to lash out.  The closer a person is to the event in question the stronger the response.  After all its one thing to watch an accident unfold on a smartphone and its quite another to see it impacting people all around you.

When something bad happens, there are a need not only to deal with the essential first response, like putting the fire out or the search and rescue activities but the emotions and feelings too.  Brexit can be described as a car crash in slow motion.   It’s a crash that involves more than 65 million people in Europe.  Its consequences go much wider than that and truly send ripples around the globe.  Advocates of Brexit, naturally don’t see it like that often because of their intense emotional vow to see the crash course through to the bitter end.  Unfortunately, what we are seeing now in the daily news is a welling up of finger pointing blame peppering reports left and right.

I’m astonished to read that the UK Chancellor Philip Hammond is playing the blame game at such an early stage in the new year.  In reports, accusing the others of paranoia, at a time when negotiations between the EU and UK super sensitive, is to invite finger pointing.  Conservative Ministers seem wholly unable to offer reassuring messages and project a positive vision of the future.

There’s no doubt that there’s a growing ground swell of opinion in the UK that wishes there to be a second referendum on the question of EU membership.  That is the fairest and most reasonable way forward in what is a situation that is going badly wrong.  The people should be given a choice based not on theory, outlandish claims and brash polemic shouting but on the hard facts of a EU/UK deal.

The action that is democratic, respectful of the scale of the decision and soundly based on clear alternatives is a referendum on the results of negotiations.  This would be a first referendum that transform and turn around a destructive phase in our history.  If the EU/UK deal was accepted by the electorate then the Country could go forward with some unity.  If the EU/UK deal was rejected our leadership role in Europe will be re-established and the focus return to fixing the NHS, housing people and ensuring opportunity for all.

So, lets’ ditch the blame culture that has engulfed Westminster.  It’s time for great vision.  Its time for clear choices and time to trust the people with the facts.

I keep seeing the word “bespoke” in articles written about Brexit.  It’s the unspoken strategy of the UK Government for a tailored outcome to negotiations that is unique in its advantages and unlike any existing agreements the EU has with third Counties.  On the one point, there’s no doubt the UK’s position is unique.  To have been a big player in the EU for 40 years and then to leave it without a compass or a map is a special situation.

The impression given by the EU side in the negotiations is that the softest possible Brexit is sought but with no special advantages given that would incentivise other Countries taking a similar leap into the unknown.  Often the catch words; win-win are used to suggest that there’s an outcome that would mean the minimum pain around but that comes with a price.

These high-level aspirations are fine and good except that the detail is always in the fine print.  That said, in the world of regulation there’s an awful lot of fine print.  It’s the case that hardly any industry or service is solely domestic, in that all its rules are purely national.  Regionally and globally rules, regulations and standards are in place to ensure that markets work, and failure get fixed.    There’s no council of perfection, some are better than others in achieving their objectives and often changing agreements is a gruelling task.

Back to that word “bespoke”.  In regulatory rulemaking terms, it’s implied that three categories are likely to arise.  One: UK wholly adopts and applies a complete EU rule.  Two: UK creates and applies a regulatory equivalence to an EU rule.  Three: UK creates and applies a disharmonised rule.  For the first two categories, if the minimum of disruption is sought, changes and modifications would need to be synchronised between the UK and EU.

The last case, number three in my list, doesn’t have that much mileage given that many EU rules are designed to comply with higher level international rules.  I’m sure the UK would have the same overriding objective to remain compatible at an international level.

It’s certainly the result that a “bespoke” settlement will not be simpler than the existing situation as a Member State of the EU.  Not only that but the administration of all the above for all the industries and services would be a responsibility of the UK.  Repatriation of these responsibilities is going to need many administrators and technical staff and a sound structure for them to do their work.  Once in place, this is not static, and a continuous process of updating would be needed.

So, if I was to offer career advice for a young graduate in the post-Brexit UK you might guess what it would be.  Yes, there are going to be the need to train up many new people to take on this activity.

Can I say anything good about Brexit?  The answer is emphatically “no” but….. Intriguing is the “but”.  Yes, it’s often the last part of the sentence that’s the most interesting.  Bit like learning German.  Having to listen to the whole sentence before you can figure out what’s going on.  Anyway, I digress.  I’d better rephrase that question like so; is there anything positive that supporters of Brexit and I might like?  Well, yes, maybe there is but there are better ways to get to it than Brexit.  We can do without all the jingoistic nationalism that Brexit is wrapped in.

Let’s start with saying that many people recollect history selectively and from time to time with involuntary rose-tinted glasses.  In my early youth, I saw the transition from black and white to colour Television.  To digress again, the TV is called “der Fernseher” in German.   This can be translated just as the English as “far” and “sight”.  Basically, it’s to see an image from a far.

TV was just one major revolution that changed the world.  Aviation was another and it’s in the post-war world that the jet-age was born.  That technology transformation changed everything as the globe effectively shrank.  Travel by air became available to vastly more people.

It maybe rose-tinted thinking but the spirit of innovation and experimentation of the 50s and 60s is worth reflecting upon.  Its particularly apt to reflect as products of that era are now slowly leaving our day-to-day experience.  One of them is the Boeing 747, the Jumbo.  That huge leap of faith, that almost sank its maker, is progressively leaving passenger service.  In its early days, its success was foreseen by only a few but no page of history will fail to remember it as an iconic and successful large aeroplane.  A game changer.

Back to my point.  If Brexit kindles anything other than nostalgia it would be nice if just a bit of a pioneering spirit emerged.  If Brexit doesn’t happen the whole act of throwing everything up in the air can still have a useful cathartic effect.  To say that; things don’t have to be the way they are, and that isn’t all bad.

Here I am promoting radical thinking.  Some contrast to the dull laggards of both the Conservative and Labour parties in Britain.  Clinging to past fantasies is their formula for the future.  In 2018, I hope the public will reject the fleeting comfort of retro-politics and demand more.  Let’s junk the Brexit project as it’s only a sticking plaster.  Let’s work with our partners.  Let’s get back to leading Europe in adventure, creativity and innovation all fit for this Century.   Looking ahead with vision, the possibilities are endless.

Can I say anything good about Brexit?  The answer is emphatically “no” but….. Intriguing is the “but”.  Yes, it’s often the last part of the sentence that’s the most interesting.  Bit like learning German.  Having to listen to the whole sentence before you can figure out what’s going on.  Anyway, I digress.  I’d better rephrase that question like so; is there anything positive that supporters of Brexit and I might like?  Well, yes, maybe there is but there are better ways to get to it than Brexit.  We can do without all the jingoistic nationalism that Brexit is wrapped in.

Let’s start with saying that many people recollect history selectively and from time to time with involuntary rose-tinted glasses.  In my early youth, I saw the transition from black and white to colour Television.  To digress again, the TV is called “der Fernseher” in German.   This can be translated just as the English as “far” and “sight”.  Basically, it’s to see an image from a far.

TV was just one major revolution that changed the world.  Aviation was another and it’s in the post-war world that the jet-age was born.  That technology transformation changed everything as the globe effectively shrank.  Travel by air became available to vastly more people.

It maybe rose-tinted thinking but the spirit of innovation and experimentation of the 50s and 60s is worth reflecting upon.  Its particularly apt to reflect as products of that era are now slowly leaving our day-to-day experience.  One of them is the Boeing 747, the Jumbo.  That huge leap of faith, that almost sank its maker, is progressively leaving passenger service.  In its early days, its success was foreseen by only a few but no page of history will fail to remember it as an iconic and successful large aeroplane.  A game changer.

Back to my point.  If Brexit kindles anything other than nostalgia it would be nice if just a bit of a pioneering spirit emerged.  If Brexit doesn’t happen the whole act of throwing everything up in the air can still have a useful cathartic effect.  To say that; things don’t have to be the way they are, and that isn’t all bad.

Here I am promoting radical thinking.  Some contrast to the dull laggards of both the Conservative and Labour parties in Britain.  Clinging to past fantasies is their formula for the future.  In 2018, I hope the public will reject the fleeting comfort of retro-politics and demand more.  Let’s junk the Brexit project as it’s only a sticking plaster.  Let’s work with our partners.  Let’s get back to leading Europe in adventure, creativity and innovation all fit for this Century.   Looking ahead with vision, the possibilities are endless.

It’s a biblical quote: “A house divided against itself cannot stand” and it was used by Abraham Lincoln in Springfield, Illinois on 16 June 1858.  In a speech against slavery, he said: “I believe this Government cannot endure, permanently half slave and half free.”  Lincoln was right but at that time he was heavily criticised for his courageous remarks.

Today, we are at a simple crossroads.  Two widely different political philosophies are in combat over our future.  This is a recurrent situation that waxes and wanes throughout our long history.  This fight is strikingly encapsulated in the campaigning antics of the social media age.

Temporarily, in the ascendancy is one approach that thrives on division.  Prompting and nurturing conflict wherever it can be found.  It’s strangely Darwinian, in setting one against another as a test to see who prevails.  Its instruments are aggressive, gaudy and indiscriminate.  It drains moral and wastefully plunders optimism.

As if it were the flip side of a coin, then we have a philosophy which prides itself; so easily summed up by the phrase: “the whole is greater than the sum of its parts”.  The notion is that happiness, prosperity and strength come from cooperation and partnership.  It’s a constructive approach that believes that human institutions can be built to positively improve life.

Now 2018, we are 160 years from Lincoln’s speech and our national “house” is indeed divided.  Whether you call it; Like or Dislike, Left or Right, Remain or Leave, North or South, Public or Private, Nationalist or Internationalist, a polarising tribalism has set into our public debate.

I’ve set out to address the question: Why is it so difficult to occupy the centre ground?  Well, there it is; it profits some people to divide and rule.  Each of us is too easily drawn into the idea that our utopia can only be built by destroying the imagined utopia of another.  OK.  It’s not grumpiness that I want to promote.  It’s all too easy to fall into the trap of thinking that there’s no way out of this perpetual conflict and that its all bad.

Back to Lincoln a couple of lifetimes ago.  He was defeated so you might conclude that his; “A house divided against itself cannot stand” speech was a failure.  Truth is, it was not.  Friends later concluded that his speech did awaken people.   It was like clearing the path of debris so that people could get from A to B with hope and ambition.

I think, that’s what we need this coming year.  A dramatic reassertion that we work better together.  A proclamation and a proof that cooperation in Europe is a benefit to every single citizen.  Building a better world is a joint activity and not a lone struggle.

So, what might be on the road ahead?  It’s clear, the road behind is littered with failures and mistakes but we have the capacity to learn from what went wrong in 2016 and 2017.  The year ahead is a great opportunity to make amends.  It’s the verge of the New Year and I’m happy to indulge in one or two predictions for 2018.

Efforts at predictions are a mix of; what happened last time, where are we now and leaps of the imagination.  Here I’ll offer more than a couple of leaps of the imagination.  Nevertheless, this is offered with a grounding of practical possibility.

Will there be a UK General Election in 2018?  I think it’s a 50-50 roll of the dice.  In precarious circumstances it doesn’t take a lot to completely upend the political landscape.

If Labour has a strategy, and it maybe let’s just wait and see, it’s going to dissolve like sugar in the rain.  The Conservatives have a kind of strategy but it’s a single-track railway line that ends in a cliff fall.  On both hard left and right, a certain number of people will always be found to be perpetually angry with the world.  They will continue to fuel much noise, smoke and mirrors.

This all points to a massive calamity which may, in fact, be a positive one.  Out of the ashes will come several new notable leaders, movers and shakers.  I’d say there’s a good chance that one of them will be charismatic enough to recapture the centre ground.

Even with the possibilities above, 2018 will be predominantly a wasted year for Government, much in the way of 2017.  What I mean is that the overwhelming focus will be on Brexit disasters, attempts at recovery and newspeak worthy of “The Thick of It”.

On the positive side, public and private organisations will kick in their worst case scenario contingency measures and by chance they will work.  A robust economy will struggle to finance these measures but a defacto-exit from Brexit will start to emerge.  The public mood will shift towards a positive pragmatic European stance and start to see of retro-politicians as to blame for the previous wasted years.   Having failed successively, populist nationalist will sink to less than 5% in the polls.  At the same time, popular non-governmental organisations will see their membership grow significantly.

In my view, a referendum or General Election is likely in 2019.  I can’t say what shape a winning Party of collection of Parties will be, but they will be different from anything we have seen before.  The anger that weaves through the social media of politics will still be there but a new generation of politicians will have adapted to this environment.   There will be an appetite for tackling big problems rather than running away.  Its often said that fashion is cyclic.  Keep those flared trousers for long enough and you will get to wear them again.

Optimistically, I’d say the decade from 2020 will be one where Britain returns to the European family and prospers greatly as a result.