Aviation – Page 22 – John Vincent

Brexit & Aviation 67

I must confess that the detail of aviation environmental policy is not my area of expertise. Nevertheless, it’s a substantial subject and one of immense importance. It’s best to note that environmental policy advances at international, regional and national level. To be truly effective the framework for environmental policy must be adopted within the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO).

This year is an important year for ICAO. It’s an Assembly year. Every 3-years an Assembly[1] comprised of all Member States of ICAO meets in Montreal. During the first 75 years of its existence, ICAO has made an indisputable contribution to the development of worldwide civil aviation. However, at previous Assemblies, ICAO has had immense problems reaching a consensus on environmental issues.

In the European Union (EU) its agency, the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) actively contributes to the ICAO Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection (CAEP) which develops and maintains the international standards for aircraft noise and emissions[2].

With Brexit looming, it remains to be seen what, if any role the UK will have in the future in the development and maintenance of environmental standards for aviation. That said, there’s more to aviation environmental policy than technical standards. There’s a useful European Aviation Environmental Report[3] that explains the various mechanisms that are being worked on with respect to aviation environmental policy.

One of the most controversial, for obvious reasons is that of market-based measures[4]. Market-based measures are mechanisms designed to tackle the climate impact of aviation, beyond what operational and technical measures or sustainable aviation fuels can achieve.

In October 2016, the 39th Assembly of ICAO States reconfirmed the objective of stabilising CO2 emissions from international aviation at 2020 levels. From November 2018, 76 ICAO States volunteered to offset their aviation emissions from 2021 and this represents three quarters of the international aviation activity.

In Europe, the approach has been to adopt an Emissions Trading System (ETS). ETS and offsetting schemes both address aviation emissions but differ in how they work. Currently, only flights between airports located in the European Economic Area are included in the EU ETS legislation. For the UK, the implication being that, post-Brexit it will no longer be covered by such EU legislation.

The UK Government is proposing statutory instruments, or secondary legislation on ETS before the exit date of 29 March 2019. In the event of a disorderly (“No Deal”) exit from the EU, the UK would not have an agreement in place to continue participating in the EU ETS. The UK would therefore leave the EU ETS on exit day[5]. The UK’s future approach to carbon pricing is to consider a range of options, including continuing to participate in the EU ETS, a UK ETS (linked or standalone) or a carbon tax. If the far-right UK Conservative European Research Group (ERG) further get their hands on power there may be no measures on climate change at all.

This lack of clarity and direction are not helpful for aviation operators who need to plan. With all the time that has passed since the vote it’s sad that all we know is the date of exit and even that is in question.

[1] https://www.icao.int/Meetings/a40/pages/default.aspx

[2] https://www.easa.europa.eu/sites/default/files/dfu/Opinion%20No%2009-2017.pdf

[3] https://www.easa.europa.eu/eaer/

[4] https://www.easa.europa.eu/eaer/topics/market-based-measures

[5] https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5c0febf1ed915d0bd3e4da92/081118_MRV_Explanatory_Memorandum_FINAL.pdf

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The simple phrase to “kick the can down the road” has been in use in political language for a long time. It means to put-off work on an important issue for a later date. When faced with an apparently insurmountable problem it’s just one of the tactics that can be used. Often the hope is that the passage of time will yield new solutions or change the environment sufficiently for an existing solution to become viable. Guess what? The longer the clock runs the more dangerous this short-term tactic becomes. If there’s a deadline looming for the delivery of a project or a hard and fast legal barrier sitting – immovable, then this is when the situation gets tense and the risks of complete failure escalate.

35 days on the clock. There’s now an expectation that Prime Minister May will ask for a 3-month extension to the Art 50 timings. This is an optimistic scenario but it’s the only practical way that legislation can be passed should a vote in Parliament given the Government a green light to proceed.

Brexit could be called off. The complete failure that the No Deal outcome represents will blow a massive hole in the political landscape of the UK Parliament and the whole Country. Will the PM take that risk? It’s difficult to tell. But it’s easy to tell that the UK is not prepared for an almighty crash out of the European Union (EU).

This week in aviation we have a reminder of the power and strength of European cooperation. After a farewell tour, the Tornado aircraft is set to retire from Royal Air Force (RAF)[1] at the end of March. The aircraft was built as part of a consortium between the UK (BAE Systems), Germany (MBB) and Italy (Aeritalia). The Panavia Tornado was designed and produced by the industries of 3 European Countries, in one of the biggest, most challenging and successful multi-national aircraft programmes ever run.

It’s part of my history too. I remember working on cockpit equipment for the Tornado ECR (Electronic Combat and Reconnaissance) aircraft. That was in the 1980s. It was my first experience of working on a multi-national programme. Equipment designed in the UK was produced in Germany as part of the close working arrangement between two companies[2][3]. Today, both of those companies are American owned but continue to operate at the same sites.

There is no doubt that we are stronger together in Europe when we work together. Brexit is a devastating blow to the successful history of European cooperation. It’s no-good saying that this is not an issue for the EU. That is to totally ignore the reality of the closer ties that are being forged in the EU. The European Defence Agency (EDA)[4] supports its Member States in improving their defence capabilities through European cooperation. That will grow in strength.

[1] @RoyalAirForce

[2] Collins Aerospace. Located in Heidelberg key capabilities: avionics for fighters and trainers; ground vehicle electronics; and space products.

[3] GE Aviation Systems (formerly Smiths Aerospace), Cheltenham.

[4] https://www.eda.europa.eu/

Aviation & Brexit 65

5 weeks and a few days to the end date that was put into legislation for the UK to leave the European Union (EU). Both Saint David’s and Saint Patrick’s Day fall before the scheduled exit day. There’s still a small chance that the departure could be called off but, just now, the bookmakers are increasing the odds in favour of a tragic “No Deal” outcome to Brexit.

In every respect negotiation between the 27 EU Member States have gone well. What’s not going well is when they sit across the table facing the UK. It’s not at all clear what the UK Government’s policy is this week. Voices off from Ministers point in several directions at the same time. On Tuesday, the UK’s Business Secretary[1] told manufacturing leaders that leaving the EU without an agreement would be a “disaster” for the UK and said he recognised the need for clarity “as soon as possible”. Vagueness at such a late hour doesn’t look good from any direction[2].

Maintaining a position as a world player in the aerospace industry requires substantial investments in research. During its membership, the UK has been a prominent beneficiary of the EU’s Horizon 2020 programme. Now, the EU is planning its biggest research and innovation funding programme ever, with a budget of €97.6 billion. This will be called Horizon Europe. It will run from 2021-2027.

Trying to match the efforts of the UK’s neighbours might be the ambition of some UK politicians but their current performance doesn’t offer much hope. Funds will no doubt be tight after any post-Brexit downturn.

The aviation ties between neighbours are the most important. Over 75% of all UK holidaymakers and 66% of business travellers go to the EU each year. 63% of all tourists and 73% of all business travellers visiting the UK come from EU Member States[3]. Putting barriers in the way of this movement of people just makes both communities poorer.

[1] https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/brexit/news/101966/greg-clark-says-business-no-deal-fears-are-‘project

[2] https://twitter.com/CBItweets/status/1097903644970672131?s=20

[3] https://www.ig.com/uk/news-and-trade-ideas/shares-news/how-will-brexit-impact-airlines-and-the-wider-aviation-industry–180316#information-banner-dismiss

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It may not be the first casualty but the news about flyBMI is disconcerting. Continuing uncertainty is going to cause businesses living on the margins to fail. In that way it’s undoubtably Brexit that is the root causes of the failure.

The East Midlands-based airline that employed over 350 people, said in a statement: “The airline has faced several difficulties, including recent spikes in fuel and carbon costs, the latter arising from the EU’s recent decision to exclude UK airlines from full participation in the Emissions Trading Scheme.”

Given the condition of several smaller regional airlines it’s likely that more could fail.

The ERA (European Regions Airline Association) is a trade association representing the aviation industry. ERA calls for a wide-reaching reciprocal aviation agreement between the EU and the UK to prevent serious harm to European connectivity[1].

UK Government’s is planning for an alternative in the event of a No-Deal scenario. There’s no doubt that such an outcome would be devastating to this sector.

Not so long ago, British charter carrier Monarch Airlines left tens of thousands of passengers stranded. It will be a turbulent year ahead for European airlines.

39 days remain and the path ahead is as misted in fog as it has been for the last two years. Those who promote a No Deal outcome are inviting more bankruptcy filings.

[1] https://cloud.3dissue.net/9237/9242/9271/11995/?page=10

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43 days left until Brexit, if it happens[1]. As the UK Parliament continues to vacillate so the European Parliament (EP) has decided. Yesterday, in Strasbourg the EP voted through a regulation on Brexit and aviation safety. The European Union (EU) will continue to recognise aviation safety approvals in the UK for at least an interim period in the event of No Deal outcome to Brexit[2].

The withdrawal of the UK from the EU without an agreement affects the validity of certificates and licenses originating from the UK. A regulation proposed in December last[3], has now been debated in the EP. Amendment were adopted by the EP on 13 February 2019 on the proposal for a regulation of the EP and of the Council on certain aspects of aviation safety with regard to the withdrawal of the UK from the EU[4].

These measures give UK based aerospace companies a short time to adapt to a new situation. It gives some grandfather rights to approvals granted before Brexit day.

There will be decisions to be made by companies. To go for a national approval hoping that a set of bilateral deals will be sorted out in the fullness of time. To go for a European approval as a “third country” or by move business to an EU Member State. Or, in fact combinations of these possibilities.

Dither in the UK. Speedy implementation in the EU. Draw whatever conclusion you like.

[1] https://howmanydaystill.com/its/brexit-6

[2] https://www.adsgroup.org.uk/blog/eu-aviation-safety-regulation-for-a-no-deal-brexit/

[3] http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/docs_autres_institutions/commission_europeenne/com/2018/0894/COM_COM(2018)0894_EN.pdf

[4] http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/getDoc.do?type=TA&language=EN&reference=P8-TA-2019-0107

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This week the focus has been on Northern Ireland (NI). It may not be well known by everyone, but NI has a considerable Aerospace sector. It’s continued success is vital to NI[1]. Aerospace contributes to over a £1bn a year to the NI economy. It’s a deep-rooted industrial sector too. I remember visiting Shorts Brothers of Belfast in the 1990s. Today, Bombardier has a large workforce in NI[2]. From design to manufacture to support work, Bombardier Belfast specialises in major aircraft structures and flight control surfaces in metal and composites. If the issues concerning Ireland become insoluble then the resulting EU-UK No Deal outcome of negotiations will damage NI and the rest of the UK.

In the UK, there are devolved administrations in Scotland, Wales and NI. Exiting EU law applies equally across the UK but there’s concern that fragmentation could occur after EU exit. There are efforts to ensure a common framework, but these don’t yet address aerospace or aviation with respect to UK law. On leaving the EU single market the UK internal market needs to maintain a level playing field whist recognising devolved powers.

Brexit remains the top immediate risk to the growth of aviation in Europe[3]. Passenger traffic growth across European airports has been relatively high in recent years. The UK leaving the EU with No Deal could lead to cap on flights and higher prices for customers. There remains legal and commercial uncertainty for airlines on post-Brexit air travel[4].

At a time when there should be renewed intensity and seriousness to discussions and negotiations, we see the opposite from a succession of UK Members of Parliament. Attempts to polarise and heighten tension are coming from those who foolishly wish to bring about a No Deal outcome.

Aviation cannot wait for the UK to strike an 11th-hour Brexit deal, so measures are being taken now. With 50 days to run, time is tight. Travellers planning business trips and family holidays after 29 March 2019 should do so with some caution. Checking terms and conditions in detail would be a wise move.

[1] https://www.adsgroup.org.uk/about/ads-offices/northern-ireland/

[2] https://uk.bombardier.com/en/about-us/bombardier-in-country/sites/site.aerospace-belfast.html

[3] ACI Europe director general Olivier Jankovec said: “With less than 60 days left before the UK exits the EU, Brexit remains the top immediate risk.

[4] https://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/Pages/2019-01-15-01.aspx#__prclt=QqEx89ur

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Since there’s little, or no good news but there is news, it’s difficult to know where to start. Forecasting is a fragile art currently. We may be able to say that the UK will face a wet and windy week ahead, but we can say little about which political eb or flow that will dominate. Thus, I’ll stick to what is known.

For one, in an aim to head off a meltdown, simplified customs processes for UK businesses trading with the EU, if the UK leaves the EU without a deal have been published. Manufacturing, those with a just-in-time supply chain will be relieved to see goods waved through customs with a paper trail following behind. Aircraft and parts may be allowed in to the UK at a reduced or zero rate of duty.

As the UK leaves the EU and becomes a “third country” it will cease to be part of the fully-liberalised EU aviation market. To stay legal, knowing which jurisdiction is applicable in aviation regulatory matters is essential[1]. For this having a good understanding of the rules of ownership pertaining in the UK and the EU is a must.

For a month now, EASA has accepted early applications from UK AOC holders for Third Country Operator (TCO) authorisations. This includes the need to produce a copy of Certificate of Incorporation/Business Registration.

For civil aircraft, it’s a matter of registration and that may not need to change. There’s no single EU aircraft registry because the EU is not a “State” in respect of ICAO Annexes. Each EU aircraft is registered in an EU Member State aircraft registry. There may be implications on where an aircraft maybe kept if that is to be for a considerable period.

For organisations, the rules can be complex and dependent upon the structure of an organisation. The authorities have issued guidance on this subject. Where doubts have arisen, European and UK courts have been asked to rule on this subject in the past. This I raised as a challenge for several large aircraft operators in my Blog 22 and 46.

For the licensing for pilots and engineers, the EU does not issue licences. In every EU Member State, the national aviation authority issues licences, to standards set down by EASA. Again, much has been said about the need for some form of recognition between EU and UK if Brexit finally happens.

54 full days remaining and there’s a mixture of options and possibilities on the table without the certainty that surely would be wise. The burden falls on each and every individual and organisation to make a prediction and take measure to ensure that they can continue to operate.

If there’s a Withdrawal Agreement there’s a degree of certainty. If there’s No Deal, then several temporary arrangements may not stop a calamitous impact on aviation in Europe[2].

[1] https://info.caa.co.uk/euexit/

[2] https://www.aerosociety.com/news/airbus-chief-warns-of-unbearable-uncertainty-of-no-deal-brexit/?dm_i=4OGU,H72Z,2ZCDRI,1Z8EL,1

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Delay is the order of the day. Now, there’s only 56 days remaining on the Brexit clock. 859 days since this all started with a June day. One silver lining to the current dark Brexit cloud is that the UK Parliament is saying it won’t support a No-Deal Brexit. However, there’s nothing to relieve the uncertainty hanging over the whole UK because even this expression of view is being ignored by the UK Government. The UK Government says it will now redouble its efforts to get a deal. Let’s hope redoubling is enough or surely it would be wiser to drop the whole project.

EU Council President Tusk, through his spokesman repeated that the Withdrawal Agreement on the table could not be renegotiated. Next, the 9th February will see Prime Minister May’s 3rd attempt at a version of a Brexit deal supported by the UK Parliament. Will it be 3 strikes and you are out?

In the latest information to UK citizens travelling to EU Member States every aspect of the advice is a degradation of exiting conditions. Travelling post-Brexit, there’s only a downside for both passengers and airlines[1].

If No-Deal comes about there’s some highly optimistic commentators who believe that a “side agreement” between the EU and UK could cover some of the purely administrative content of the existing Withdrawal Agreement. That said, even with this practical suggestion absolutely nothing is assured.

In the aviation regulatory world, it’s reported that the UK Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) is in the process of rebuilding itself after scalling back following the creation of EASA in September 2003. The UK CAA has said it wants to stay within the EASA system after the UK exits the EU. However, this possibility is looking unlikly for all the political reasons that are piling up every day. The UK’s exit from the EU will have a severe impact on the UK aviation industry.

In civil aviation, large organisations have an Emergency Response Plan (ERP). International standards recommend planning. It’s normal, once a plan is in place to conduct an exercise to ensure that everyone has a clear understanding of its process and it stands up to rigorous testing. I’ve been part of several such exercises in Europe. My experience is that even with the most elegant plan, carefully prepared, the real-life impact of using it is often incredibly revealing. Situations are constantly evolving, and all parties must move rapidly in order to anticipate risks and adapt accordingly. Often communication and behaviours turn out differently than expected.

Yes, on both sides preparations are being made for the worst case No-Deal scenario, but they will all be untested. If more than one crisis occurs at any one time more than double the effort is needed to resolve the situation. The implementation of any such No Deal plan will not be a matter for one organisation but a continent of 500 million people. If anyone thinks that will go smoothly, I just have to say that they have no experience of the real world.

[1] https://www.aerosociety.com/news/no-deal-no-flights/

Brexit & Aviation 59

I’d like to congratulate the UK Civil Servants who have been set an impossible task. The stream of publications for UK nationals living in the European Union (EU), the European Economic Area (EEA) and Switzerland if the UK leaves the EU without a deal on 29 March is impressive. Basically, they say the UK Government continues to negotiate Brexit even if that’s one sided. There’s a dose of reality in some of the statements, like: “The rules for travel to most countries in Europe will change if the UK leaves the EU with no deal.” There’s always a disclaimer asking the reader to note that the information provided is a guide only. There’s also a reassuring note that; in the event of changes to rules or processes after 29 March 2019, the UK Government will update this page as soon as information is available.

Now, there’s 57 days remaining on the clock. Informed analysis says that there’s no time left to be able to paper over all the cracks that will appear on Brexit day[1]. UK MP’s are talking about putting in extra hours. Nevertheless, it would be extraordinary if all the topics that needed to be covered were covered in such a short time[2]. There’s also UK MPs talking of “a technical extension” of Article 50, if a new deal can’t be legislated for in time. Nothing is fixed.

So, the reality is that we have one of the world’s mature democracies, influential States with a long history is heading into an abyss. Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit plans have been chaotic and dysfunctional from day one. But there’s been plenty of time to make mistakes, learn from them and then put it right. Unfortunately, this has not been done, held back by political arrogance.

In the aviation industry one of the great successes over decades has been the ability to make mistakes, learn from them and then put it right. It’s one the reasons that flying is as safe as it is across the globe. A culture where people can honestly admit to error and sit down with their colleagues to fix problems is an advanced one. In the long-term, this approach works to the benefit of everyone concerned. In aviation, those who are looking for partnerships and business opportunities value stability, a level playing field and the rule of law.

Back in 2016, some campaigners said – not a single job – would be lost due to Brexit. That statement, and many like it, now appear extremely foolish and dishonest. To date, the UK’s referendum has delivered nothing to the advantage of UK citizens. In a graphic illustration of how strangely ridiculous the situation has become, this TV clip from the BBC’s News at Six showing archive footage of Second World War aircraft, joke or not, is in bad taste to say the least[3].

[1] https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/brexit-two-months-go

[2] https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-news-latest-theresa-may-moves-to-scrap-half-term-for-mps-in-panic-over-brexit-a4053946.html

[3] https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/bbc-news-gaffe-sees-second-world-war-footage-played-over-theresa-may-brexit-item-a4053676.html

Brexit & Aviation 58

I must confess that I never thought that the situation would become as bad. To a limited extent, it hasn’t yet got that far – yet. Some have taken the view that a No Deal Brexit is off the table and exits only as a scary story to push discussions forward. The problem is that this view is optimistic when considering the performance of the negotiating parties over the last couple of years.

The cold facts are that preparations for a No Deal Brexit outcome are being stepped-up. Radical Leave supporters are celebrating the prospect of a No Deal Brexit. This is done without any consideration of the consequences of such an irresponsible approach.

After the failed vote of this week we now have an elaborate lobbying exercise going on, but I don’t see compromise coming out of any cross-Party talks in Westminster. It’s highly probably that the UK will be a “third country” without any extant arrangements or deals from 30 March 2019, 00:00h (CET). With 70 days to go this is a tragic situation.

There’s an opportunity on this coming Monday for the UK Prime Minister to turn this around. But it would mean removing “red lines” that have so constrained discussions.

In the airworthiness world the impact of a No Deal Brexit is being spelt out[1]. There’s no precedent for this situation.

EASA certificate for products, parts and appliances issued to holders in the UK will no longer be considered as certified in accordance with EU rules.

Certificates issued, before the withdrawal date by the UK CAA, in accordance with EU rules will no longer be valid. Over night, UK engineers would lose the right to sign off EU aircraft.

There’s more that impacts aircraft operations. I imagine this will prompt a stream of people and organisations contacting EASA to find out what can be done. None of this work is productive. None of this work will enhance aviation safety. None of it would be needed if a comprehensive agreement is forged or Brexit is abandoned.

[1] https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/notice_to_stakeholders_brexit_aviation_safety_rev1_final.pdf