It’s a week ago since I last wrote. It’s been the week of Easter. Politicians took time off and the news cycle found new stories to cover including exceptionally warm weather. In terms of progressing towards a solution to the Brexit crisis nothing much happened. Or at least nothing much happened in public.
Brexit continues to be a lose-lose proposition. On both sides of the Channel the impasse rattles on. All the energy absorbed by Brexit has weaken the economies of both the UK and the Continent. CNN[1] recently reported that its China that is the big winner from Europe’s Brexit chaos. That could well be the case, if not in the short-term then certainly in the longer term.
The European Parliament (EP) is now in recess until after the European elections at the end of May. The new EP will be in place in July. A new European Commission will be appointed.
This means UK holidaymakers will have to make a leap of faith if they are booking a beach holiday on the Continent this summer. Since Brexit is delayed, but that could be cut short the assumption may be made that conditions remain; business as usual at least for a bit longer.
Since the referendum was first called in 2015 the UK pound (£) has fallen from roughly 1.4 Euro to the £ to its current rate of around 1.15 Euro to the £. UK holidaymakers will need to take this into account when booking packages. In all cases measures to keep aircraft flying will be in place but there’s a strong likelihood that higher fares and less choice are on the cards.
As a highly regulated industry the importance of what happens to regulatory relations matters a great deal. Aviation cannot prosper without a mature and stable framework within which to operate safely. All the international evidence points in that one direction.
The UK played a major part in the formation of the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), but it would seem to be stepping aside. Regardless of what the UK does, EASA’s tasks within the EU-27 and its 4 associated countries will continue uninterrupted. The UK’s possible withdrawal puts it in a difficult position with diminished influence. Any withdrawal will significantly alter EASA’s cooperation with UK authorities. Even in this peculiar situation there may still be a re-think but just now nothing remains untouched.
[1] https://edition.cnn.com/2019/03/27/europe/china-europe-brexit-italy-bri-intl-gbr/index.html
John Vincent 