A new Conservative Party leader should be named on Tuesday, 23 July and then appointed UK Prime Minister (PM) one day later. That’s only if the Government’s majority in the UK Parliament hasn’t crumbled. Then the House of Commons (HoC) summer recess begins one day after. The HoC returns on Tuesday, 3 September just before the political Party conference season gets started. So, the idea that there’s time to apply Article 50 and negotiate a new deal with the European Union (EU) before the 31 October exit day is pure fantasy. If there was unity, harmony and a convergence of positions then a small chance exists. None of those three words can reasonably be used to describe the situation.
A lot of political talk still centres around the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and peculiar notions that it might be easier to get a deal with over 160 Countries than it is to deal with 27 Countries. The WTO framework doesn’t cover key aspects of the UK economy, like: Aviation, Medicine, Export Licencing and Digital Data. Often expressed as a sign of more “Unicorns”, frustration continues to grow amongst those who have gained a smattering of knowledge after 3-years of this merry-go-around. As a result of all the nonsense spoken, there’s little doubt that Brexit is damaging the UK’s reputation as a good place to do business.
If Boris Johnson enters Number 10, Downing Street as PM then he could discard his firm promise to leave the EU, come what may on 31 October only then to see his Government fall. Thus, the strong likelihood of a “No Deal” outcome with no implementation/transition period is looming. Without a formal withdrawal agreement there’s only the temporary contingency measures that both the EU and UK have published so far. I’ve written about this in my Blog 61, 71 and 74.
One area of significance is how this event will impact aerospace Design Organisations (DO) who are primarily based in the UK. Approvals issued by the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) to a UK DO, before the exit date will remain valid for 9 months from the day after the 31 October. To provide continuity, UK DO’s are being encouraged to apply to the UK Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) for a national approval in advance of the exit day. One small silver lining is that the UK CAA will not charge an up-front fee for issuing these approvals, provided the scope is the same as the EASA approval and no technical investigation is required. After that a fee is changed for surveillance of the DO approval under a published scheme of charges.
This is one subject area amongst a large number, across many industries. Yes, Brexit is a magnificent way to create extra bureaucracy and we will all end up paying for it in the long run.