johnwvincent

Words Matter

There have been so many words uttered during this EU referendum campaign in the UK you would think that anything goes and it hardly matters as the background noise has been so loud. Can the millions of pages of words that have been written or the billions of words spoken change the outcome? It’s hard to say “yes” or “no” to that simple question.

However, I believe it’s wrong to say that the public debate hasn’t changed much. For one, the debate has become a struggle to capture public attention and that’s produced some ghastly rhetoric. I guess, that crude language of expression is a sign of our times. Not only that but the style of presentation often trumps the substance. Pomposity and bombast put me off but some people love it. Overall, sadly there has been little truly memorable oratory.

Anyway, I was taught that when you have a complex problem to solve then start by going back to first principles. So, here we go. The core propositions of both IN and OUT campaigns are predictions. Predictions that one way means you’ll be better off and the other way means you’ll be worse off. In my mind, and I’m a rational person, the more trustworthy information you have to support your case the better. Failing that, I look at the person or group making the prediction and ask myself – do they know the subject?

Having read and listened to a lot in the last 100 days, I can say that; without any shadow of a doubt that the REMAIN campaign has provided the most reliable information. Also, they have the most credible supporters and speakers not just in the UK but worldwide.

I think, it would be extremely foolish to ignore the declaration of the G7 leaders made in Japan in May this year. “A UK exit from the EU would reverse the trend towards greater global trade and investment, and the jobs they create, and is a further serious risk to growth.”

We will all be better off by voting to REMAIN in the EU.

Contradiction

We can have confidence in Britain’s capabilities without having to believe in Gove’s economic miracle. Anyway, there’s a huge contradiction at the heart of the leave campaign’s claim. They are saying; trust me because all the others are wrong. A long list of experts says; REMAIN is best option out of the two but Gove says the opposite.

Let’s consider this situation. If all the calculations of the world’s forecasters are all wrong, then major decisions are being poorly made across the globe. Investments and the spending of Governments are in error. The inevitable conclusion from this is that chaos and recession are imminent and inevitable. In such an event, Britain would be impacted regardless of being IN or OUT of the EU. Whatever happens; “No man is an island”.

However, if the calculations of the worlds forecasters are at least half way right there is a chance of continuing recovery and stability. There’s a chance risk is being managed and that decisions based on those forecasts are sound. To me this scenario seems by far the most plausible and a better bet.

It’s true we should not choose our vote solely on the basis of what experts say, particularly economists but it would be foolish to ignore their information. You can drive a car by looking out of the window and daydreaming but its far safer to pay attention and glance down at the instruments from time to time.

Britain is already a “progressive beacon” in the world. That position has been reached because we have embraced partnerships and understand how to work with others. Being in the EU does not stop Britain projecting its influence. In fact, leaving the EU would be a powerful negative signal to everyone we work with around the globe.

I conclude that the overwhelming case to REMAIN in the EU has not changed in the last weeks.

Optimistic

“Liberalism is trust of the people tempered by prudence. Conservatism is distrust of the people tempered by fear”. William E. Gladstone wasn’t half right. Every time I read an article from a Brexiter its about fear and failure. There seems to be an obsession with both. Lines like: “voters cowed”, “never get what it wants …”, “Cameron blew his big chance…”, “We don’t need trade deals…”. Generally, they aren’t an optimistic bunch. They’re rather gloomy and pessimistic but hold a glossy romantic notion of the 1950s. True there a few like Johnson who might best be described as a dangerous adventurer or buccaneering buffoon but who would want to put our Country in their hands? Britain was in decline before it joined the EEC so let’s not go back to those days.

Personally, I’m highly optimistic that Britain in the EU will thrive and grow. The evidence of my experience living, working and travelling in Europe makes this a perfectly prudent thing to say. Today, it’s in the news that the unemployment rate is the lowest since 2005. The status of the world’s 5^th largest economy was achieved whilst part of the EU. London remains a cosmopolitan global city. There’s a host of reasons to be optimistic.

World beating engineering companies like Rolls Royce want us to stay in the EU. They value the stability that ensures they can make long-term investments in new technology. British universities not only gain financially from the EU but profit from a collaborative approach. We are a smart nation.

One chance is all we get at this EU referendum. More than anything else the impact will be felt by those who are just leaving school or university. For the next 40 years, their world will be shaped by the decision that people will make. Just as my future was shaped by the 1975 vote. Have confidence and Vote Remain.

Best place

Today, Britain is in an exceedingly enviable position when compared to other nations. Our economy is strong. We are a member of NATO, the Commonwealth and the Security Council of the UN. In Europe, we have negotiated a position outside the Eurozone but inside the single market. We maintain our border controls but are free to work, study and live in any EU Member State. We can veto new Countries joining the EU. Why then would Britain want to walk away from an enviable position?

The up and coming referendum on EU membership is not a popularity contest. There’s no rubbing of a lamp expecting a genie to pop-out and grant our wishes. It about cold hard facts concerning what is best for the whole of Britain, now and in the long-term.

Do we trade the advantages listed above for an unknown destination? Is our good fortune so wrapped in pride that we are blind to major risks? Do we lack confidence in our ability to get our way in Europe? Yes, these questions are uncomfortable but the outcome of this national referendum may be an unavoidable fork in the road.

I do sense that one aspect of the argument to leave the EU is a lack of confidence in the British people. This in my mind is foolish. Over the last 40 years, I have met and worked with just as many capable, clever and talented British people as I have from any of the other EU Member States.

The great achievement of the EU is that we are all so much more effective when we are working together, as a team, for a common purpose. We are so lucky to have the opportunity to be able to put together world-class teams across Europe. This helps us sustain our jobs, industries and wealth in a rapidly changing world.

Throwing our advantages away for little tangible benefit is an incredibly high-risk move. It’s much better to apply ourselves to making the EU work better rather than to go where no-one knows and to do it without a sound plan.

Positivity

Magnets have two poles – north and south. Electrical charges can be positive or negative. Batteries have a plus and a minus terminal. Yes, you can tell that I’m and electrical engineer by training. However, reducing complex subjects to just two simple choices (IN or OUT) isn’t so easy even if it is necessary. In the forthcoming referendum there will only be two choices. Well, of course there’s a third way and that’s abstention (or not voting) but this is the worst of all the choices possible. With such a mammoth decision in front of the British people on 23 June, I hope that as many people as possible have their say in the final result.

This is NOT a normal British election. This is NOT a vote for punishing or rewarding a Government or any of its personalities. This is NOT reversible.

Although you can only choose to REMAIN or LEAVE the EU, in reality Europe is much more multidimensional. We can talk at length about business, economics, defence, security, social welfare, human rights, democracy or the environment as a few of the subjects on the table. None of them are trivial. All of them are important. Don’t let anyone tell you this is simple.

Remember too that although the referendum is one day in 2016 it’s the impact on decades for Britain that needs to be in your mind. What’s happening this week or this month may not have anything to do with the enduring impact of the vote. Political personalities come and go like moths. Britain endures.

Throughout this long national referendum campaign, I have seen both positive and negative campaigning from both side of the critical arguments. If I was to pile up the arguments on a large balancing scale, I think that there’s greater positivity from Vote Remain and less from Vote Leave.

Now, you might say to me: but aren’t you bias is making that assessment? Here’s a reason why that is not so and it’s a simple equation that can make the point. Vote Remain is positive about the EU. Vote Leave is negative about the EU. Both are positive about Britain’s place in the wider world.

So, two positives for REMAIN. Thus, its seems to me that the best long term result for Britain is to REMAIN in the EU.

A day in Egham

036 Here’s just a quick reflection on today’s escapade. It was Magna Carta Day in the small Surrey town of Egham. This is an annual event that has been going since the 1990s. Last year, at this time, there was the Magna Carta 800th anniversary commemorations. So, here we are having a fundamental referendum on our relationship with Europe in the 801th year since the signing of the Magna Carta.

One of this Surrey town’s more notable establishments is the Royal Holloway, University of London. Fortunately, Royal Holloway and its students had stepped in at the last moment and organised a street stall. Sue and I, and a few of our local Liberal Democrat colleagues joined the Stronger IN stall in the High Street. This was nicely decked with union jack flags and one big blue European flag. It was a great to be working with the enthusiastic young students on the stall.

Much literature was given away and the vast majority of people we met as they passed by were pleased to see us. Even a couple of mild mannered leave supporters said they were glad both sides of the referendum debate were represented.

The most rewarding part of the day was talking to the diverse range of undecided voters. In conversation, that’s when the personal touch really does make a big difference. A few well-chosen words can swing an outcome towards REMAIN. One woman told me her partner was away and he was a signed-up Kipper but she wasn’t going for the leave camp. Oh the beauty of a secret ballot.

Polling speculation that younger people tend to lean towards Vote REMAIN seemed to be borne out by our chats to one and all. It was evident to me that the more open minded people were the more they valued Britain’s membership of the EU.

I had a discussion with a retired British Airways pilot about the differences between Boeing and AIRBUS aircraft. He had flown Boeing aircraft but commented that his daughter was flying AIRBUS.

I chatted about the Cross of Nails representing reconciliation in Coventry Cathedral to one woman. Briefly talked to a French mathematics student who was enjoying a short stay working in Egham. We compared the problems in France with the problems in Britain.

Not too much xenophobia came our way but one or two people made a point of telling us who they hated. One strange man objected to the union jack flags and European flag being together.

Disappointingly, Runnymede borough’s mayor, who kicked-off the town’s event carefully avoided our stall for the whole day.

One guy wearing a little red leave badge came up to me and started a rant that sounded like he was reading the cover story from the Daily Mail to my face. I smiled with a vaguely disinterested look. He got bored and went away. Engagement is not a good idea when someone is so monochrome.

Rain didn’t dampen our spirits.

Overall there was a good positive reception for REMAIN. I’d like to estimate that the overall experience indicated a better than 50/50 outcome is on the cards. However, in Egham town the older demographic probably favours Vote Leave.

Human Rights

I love the European Union when it protects human rights. There is a good reason why human rights have a “supranational” dimension. That word meaning a power or influence that goes beyond national boundaries or governments. That’s because throughout history governments have taken, and continue to take truly appalling actions. This is not just on random occasions since abuse crops-up time and time again. Often these actions are driven by the type of right-wing political extremism that we see on the rise again in Europe. That’s a Europe which includes us.

Now, I know the British argument is often that it could never happen in this Country. However, I’m reminded of the words of the German Pastor Martin Niemöller – “First they came for the…”. It’s a list which finishes with the line: “Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me”.

It’s striking how polarising the public debate surrounding the EU referendum has become. It’s striking how quickly our world becomes separated into camps of “them” and “us”. It’s also striking how quickly rational argument can fall away and be replaced by simple name calling.

In its membership, Britain’s role in the EU has been one of promoting human rights. Today, there seems to be a danger that we are rolling back from the leadership we once exercised as an advanced nation. I believe it remains vitally important that Britain remains inside the EU to uphold human rights. It’s what we have traditionally done well. A vote to REMAIN is a vote to lead for the good of us all.

Fed-up?

WP_20160505_11_27_06_Pro Only a fortnight to the most important national vote of my lifetime. That said, are you like me getting fed-up with this persistent nonsense?

It has been reported that a Prophet said that; you should not kill your neighbour.

Leave campaigners dismissed this as biased.

It has been reported that a major Church leader said that; the meek shall inherit the earth.

Leave campaigners dismissed this as EU propaganda.

It has been reported that a great Statesman said; he was in favour of peace in Europe.

Leave campaigners dismissed this as a minor issue.

It has been reported that a world renowned Economist said; she though there was a risk with Brexit.

Leave campaigners dismissed this as being wrong because other people are wrong.

It has been reported that a senior civil servant said; caution should be exercised.

Leave campaigners dismissed this as unfair.

It has been reported that the public are in despair over misinformation and hyperbole.

Leave campaigners dismissed this because they were clearly not listening.

The REMAIN campaign questioned the accuracy of figures used by the media.

Leave campaigners dismissed this as even more proof that everyone was biased.

Is there anyone left for Vote Leave/UKIP supporters to denounce? I’ll answer my own question: the likelihood that that a rational, reasonable and reliable argument will come from the leavers is the same chance as hell freezing over. Overwhelming numbers of reputable experts, notable achievers, and down to earth practical people support a vote to REMAIN in the EU. You should too.

Deadline

Register, register, register – that’s the best that can be said at this moment. The voter registration deadline is to be extended to midnight on Thursday, 09 June 2016. When that midnight hour comes voter registrations will close. Legislation will be put forward to make that happen. That’s your one opportunity to vote in the EU referendum being held on Thursday, 23 June to decide if Britain will REMAIN in the EU.

Time to sign-up if the Government computer glitch got you or you missed the last deadline. It’s clear that if you don’t register and don’t vote you are giving up Britain to the readers of the Daily Mail and the Express.

Although we have known since it was first published, it’s clear that the leave campaigners claim that Brexit would free up £350m a week for the UK Government to spent is untrue. Leave campaign literature has been full of blatant distortions.

If you are concerned about; jobs, your income, prices and your rights in the work place then vote to REMAIN in the EU.

Templar

The question is: which way would Simon Templar vote at the EU referendum? That’s Roger Moore in British TV series: The Saint. The character’s initials (ST) gave him the name “The Saint”. It’s also the registration of an iconic Volvo sports car.

An archetypal post-war Robin Hood, this fictional star didn’t much care for the “ungodly” or the con artists. Impeccably dressed, Templar could become embroiled in a fight and yet with one brush of his hair look like nothing had happened. Which way would this fictional character, in black and white or colour, vote in the forthcoming referendum?

A pre-war mystery called a “Prelude for War” was adapted and updated for TV. That story became titled: The Saint Plays with Fire (1963) and is the best indicator to me that Simon Templar would vote to REMAIN in the EU.

The story goes like this: A young undercover journalist is murdered by a member of the British Nazi Party. Simon Templar takes up the investigation for a friend. The writer’s papers were not destroyed. There’s a struggle to recover the papers. Naturally it’s got a cliff hanger where the Saint has to escape a deadly fire set by his enemies.

At the start of the TV show there’s a fascist rally taking place in London. Then the camera pans to the Saint who gives a short speech direct to the viewers.

It goes like this: Less than 20 years ago we won the war against Nazi tyranny. And today, the spectre is emerging again – it’s the same shabby doctrine – race hatreds, survival of the fittest, brutal intimidation of the opposition – I’ve heard it before and it sickens me – just as it sickens the vast majority of people here in Trafalgar Square – frightening isn’t it.

Listening to that, I can’t help but think this is the future of UKIP. And it is frightening.