Category: Aviation

Brexit & Aviation 104

The more I write these short Blogs, the more I talk about the subject, the more I’m no longer surprised that the complexity of the changes that are underway are not in the public mind.   Issues that I consider to be of great magnitude and changes of real concern are more for the specialist.   The detail of how the aviation system works is indeed specialist knowledge.

As an airline passenger, getting on a flight, we all take for granted a huge number of complicated interacting systems that we expect to work without us needing to understand how they work.  Just like when I pick-up my iPhone.  Even as a professional engineer, I only have a superficially knowledge of how my iPhone does what it does, but I do expect it to work every time.

So, how do we have any kind of discussion about good, bad or indifferent impacts of Brexit when we skit over the detail?  The answer is that we need to trust someone.  Trust a person to tell the truth, as best they know, about the potential impacts of Brexit.  Now if you have a list of different types of people and you ask: “tell me if you generally trust them to tell the truth, or not?” the results do stand up well for the specialist.  Being and Engineer, I’m heartened to see that “Engineers” are right up in the rankings[1].  Government Ministers and politicians are right at the bottom of the rankings.

So, why do so many people appear to believe politicians when they dismiss professional views on the impact of Brexit?  So called “Project Fear” is often quoted.  This seems counter to the evidence.   Or is it that what we may think is happening isn’t happening at all.  Maybe Government Ministers and politicians are not believed at all when dismissing professional views.  In fact, a big delusion exists.

Let’s put that to one side and look at where we are.  Now just into the new month we are days away from the European Union (EU) summit planned for 17 – 18 October.  UK law requires the UK Government to ask for a further extension to the existing deadline of 31 October.  The “Benn” law does not stop the extension request being submitted before the summit, but the expectation is that a request will be made after the summit.  Much depends on the results of the EU summit (European Council meeting).

Before the above the UK Government will hold a Queen’s Speech on Monday, 14 October.  This Queen’s Speech may be important in the sense that it could set out the next steps.  It’s strange in many ways given that the Government has no working majority.  The Queen’s Speech debate in Parliament on 15-17 and 21-22 October will be a sham.

Meanwhile, the UK Parliament’s Brexit Select Committee hasn’t met since before Prime Minister Johnson prorogued the UK Parliament in September.  So, is anyone looking at the detailed lawmaking that’s going on at the moment?

Let me be rash and speculate.  Looking 9 months ahead.  I think the European Council will make progress, but it will not resolve Brexit and UK will ask for an extension and it will be granted.  To apply leverage the UK Government will threaten to be uncooperative or at least an unhelpful Member State during the new extension period.  Politically, blame will be flying all over the place, but it will be so scattered that much of it will not stick in one place for long.

The new deadline will be the 4th anniversary of the 2016 referendum and will fall in June 2020.  Thus, there’s a high probability of a May 2020 UK General Election.  In many places, coincident with the UK local elections.  That’s where the new deal, of whatever shape and form it takes, will be out there in front of the British electorate.  By then the 27 EU Member States would have already agreed to it in principle.

[1] https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2018-11/veracity_index_2018_v1_161118_public.pdf

 

Brexit & Aviation 103

This week, I have had the great pleasure of being in Canada and I mean that without hesitation or reservation.  Here in Montreal the sun shines one day and then the next the rain comes thundering down.  Flowers are still blooming, and the leaves are just contemplating leaving the trees.  All in all, it’s a perfect time to be in the city.

The last time I participated in the International Civil Aviation Organisation’s (ICAO’s) 3-yearly Assembly was 6-years ago.  That was the 38th Assembly and this one is the 40th.  It’s noticeable how much less paper there is this time and how much more reliance there is on Apps[1], phones and tablets.  During Assembly Sessions, ICAO’s complete work programme in the technical, economic, legal and technical cooperation fields are reviewed[2].  Over 2000 people took part in the event.

In international aviation several of the major subjects under discussion are forever with us.  Reminding delegates of one of the biggest subjects all work stopped on Friday.  The biggest climate change march in Canada took place here in Montreal.  An estimated half a million people paraded through the city with serious intent but in an altogether carnival atmosphere.

Being here as an observer reminds me how much effort is required to get agreement between the 193 States of ICAO.  It’s a huge credit to the organisation’s secretariat that the Assembly runs like clockwork even when changes are made at the last minute.  EU Member States play a significant part in the proceedings of the Assembly.  Each as a sovereign State but acting together with a common purpose.  The UK is part of that European team.

The ICAO Assembly completed its selection of the 36 States that will oversee its work over the next period.  This is a complex voting arrangement that engages the States’ delegations for the first part of the Assembly.  The UK is one of those States selected to sit on the organisation’s Council[3].

Now, with Brexit I wonder what will happen in 3-years’ time.  Perhaps it’s less wise to speculate on that question than it may have been even a couple of weeks ago.  The situation is so turbulent as each party makes a final push to achieve their ends.

One truth is clear.  If people are serious about tackling global issues, like climate change, then organisations like ICAO have a pivotal role to play.  The more fragmentation of views there is in the world then the harder it will be to coordinate effective actions.   It’s hard enough now.

[1] https://www.icao.int/Meetings/a40/Pages/mobile-app.aspx

[2] https://www.icao.int/Meetings/a40/pages/default.aspx

[3] https://twitter.com/icao/status/1177957655299538946?s=20

 

Brexit & Aviation 102

UK Prime Minister (PM) Johnson’s Brexit meeting with the European Union’s Juncker was said to be “constructive” and contact between the two sides will now be stepped up.  I must wonder with amassment at this summary given that there are only 44 days left on the clock.  Whatever has been said, there’s been no change over the few days on the likelihood of the UK leaving the EU with or without a deal on 31 October.  In probability terms it looks highly likely.

Meanwhile the PM insists he did not mislead the Queen over suspending Parliament.  As of today, that questionable matter is in front of the highest Court in the land.

We are facing a situation where all the existing Agreements and Regulations derived from EU Treaties will fall on 31 October.  Yes, a new Regulation does address basic contingency measure that will be available for a short period[1] after Brexit day but then it’s the land of the completely unknown.

The implications of Brexit for Britain’s aerospace and aviation sector are looked at by the Royal Aeronautical Society and it doesn’t make for happy reading[2].  Yet, Brexit supporters will continue to talk loudly of scaremongering and so called “project fear”.

Let me not paint a picture that everything in the UK is chaos and everything in the EU is fine and dandy.  The hard facts are that we all have the same problems to confront.  A recent exchange between the European Parliament (EP) and the Executive Director of the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) on aviation safety showed serious challenges for us all[3].  At least in Brussels, MEPs get to ask questions on aviation safety.  Currently, with a suspended UK Parliament that’s not possible for UK MPs in the UK.

On another subject, commercially Brexit is looking like a bad dream.  Thomas Cook has blamed Brexit uncertainty and the weather for lower bookings and people are now on alert over the airlines possible collapse[4].

If you are a Licensed Engineer and have an EASA Part-66 Licence issued by the UK Civil Aviation Authority (CAA), be sure to check the guidance on whether you will be eligible to work on EU Member State registered aircraft in the event of a No Deal Brexit.

Wouldn’t it be nice to have some good aviation news for a change?  With the Brexit clock ticking to the point of 40 days and 40 nights maybe a change of biblical proportions is coming[5].

[1] Commission considers that this Regulation does not prejudge the nature of the future relationship with the United Kingdom in the area of aviation and that the exercise of competence in the Regulation is temporary and strictly limited to its period of validity.

[2] https://www.aerosociety.com/news/at-brexits-cliff-edge/

[3] http://www.europarl.europa.eu/committees/en/tran/home.html

[4] https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/42d537c0-d719-11e9-b098-ed106f659f8a

[5] Jesus fasted for 40 days and nights in the Judaean Desert. During this time, Satan came to him and tried to tempt him.

Brexit & Aviation 101

The implications of the prorogation of the United Kingdom (UK) Parliament and the inevitability of a UK General Election (GE) are difficult to fathom.  Factor in the flexibility with which rules and procedures are being interpreted and the mix is ever more complex.  It’s becoming clear that the hard Brexit deadline of 31st October 2019 isn’t a formula for a restoration of clarity, consistency and stability in the manner UK Government Ministers have been saying.

Let’s remember that a GE was scheduled for May 2022 and the last snap GE in 2017 did nothing to ease the pain of Brexit.  Moving the deck chairs around doesn’t stop the bad-tempered political rows that have become part of the daily news diet.

Although the general public had little interest in the subject until around 2015, the European question has become the defining political issue of our time.  Geography and history make the UK a European nation.  The question is that social, economic and political ties are at a crossroads.  Over the next few weeks British politicians trot off to their respective annual conferences.  All the time the hard Brexit deadline of 31st October 2019 looms in the background.

Meanwhile adjustments are being made with respect of European aviation.  Regulations adopted by the European Union (EU) in early 2019 which were due to come into effect on 29th March 2019 are now being extended so that they don’t expire until 24th October 2020[1].

It’s taken 3-years for the impact of leaving the European Single Market to sink in.  So much of what we do on a day-to-day basis is dependent upon Just-In-Time movements of good backwards and forwards between the UK and the rest of Europe.  The level playing field that has been created within the EU has benefited everyone but may have been taken for granted given its transparent success.

For a while the standards of the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) will continue to apply in the UK[2].  However, the UK will lose its strong influence over the development of the EASA regulatory framework.  In consultations there’s no doubt UK technical experts will continue to offer comments on proposed rule changes.  Such comments will be considered by EASA as they are from any “Third Country”.  That said, the UK will lose its seat at the table when it comes to making major financial and policy decisions that will shape the future European regulatory framework.

My assumption above is that the UK’s membership of EASA is terminated with a No Deal Brexit.  That means all the tasks currently undertaken by EASA will need to be taken up by the UK Civil Aviation Authority (CAA).  To fully understand the implications of this change it’s to do more than a full reversal of what has been achieved since 29 September 2003.  That’s when EASA first took on responsibility for its allocated tasks.  A backward move that has no upside.

[1] https://www.gov.ie/en/news/2df90c-minister-ross-welcomes-aviation-and-transport-brexit-extensions/

[2] https://sites-herbertsmithfreehills.vuturevx.com/20/15504/landing-pages/3107e-brexit-legal-guide-22-aviation.pdf

 

Aviation & Brexit 100

One of the problems with using a tool like: risk assessment to apply to a big change is that of choosing a scenario that has a realistic likelihood.  I don’t know if the sale of crystal balls has increased during the last 3-years, but it is surely a good business to get into.  It’s been 1167 days since the UK European Union (EU) Referendum Vote.  This week has turned the domestic political world upside down as if we had been asleep for all those days.  The UK now has a Prime Minister at the head of a minority Government that could fall relatively quickly.

At the same time, the UK Government’s man with the fancy title; Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster has launched a massively expensive “Get Ready for Brexit” campaign.  This strangely assured act has not been lost on comedians and satirists.  Although the public campaign says you must get ready for 31 October 2019, the UK Parliament may have a different idea as it asserts control over the next phases of Brexit.

57 days to go and the risks of more upsets remain.  Whatever happens, be on day one or after a short stopgap, leaving the EU means that the UK will no longer be able to trade as it has for the last 40 years with the Continental Europe.

In the run up to the original Brexit deadline at the end of March 2019, UK manufacturers including aerospace companies took up stock-pilling.  That has been expensive and holding high levels of stocks undermines the efficiency of production and delivery systems[1].

The overall value of global aircraft deliveries to UK industry, so far this year is £17 billion[2].  However economic factors and the threat of a No Deal Brexit outcome has slowed production.  UK aerospace production fell 3.8 per cent in the first half of 2019, continuing a downward trend from 2018 as the impact of Brexit continues[3].

For the sake of balance, recent news is not all negative as the 2019 Aerospace Manufacturing Attractiveness report from the professional services firm PwC points out[4].  Although this report could be criticised for layering analysis on top of analysis.  Not only that but the historic data used derives from the status-quo being that the UK was in the EU.

It seems that reliable crystal balls are hard to come by.  Most of them tend to draw conclusions from past performance and look forwards on the basis that there’s a degree on linearity with respect to what happens next.  Unfortunately, that’s not so useful when disruptive forces act in random ways.  Brexit is a step change that is not amenable to simple thinking.

[1] https://thesiliconreview.com/2019/8/no-deal-brexit-threatens-aerospace/

[2] https://www.pesmedia.com/uk-aerospace-manufacturing-aircraft-deliveries-no-deal-brexit/

[3] https://www.adsgroup.org.uk/news/newsroom/uk-aerospace-production-slows-as-no-deal-fears-intensify/

[4] https://www.pwc.co.uk/industries/aerospace-defence/insights/2019-aerospace-manufacturing-attractiveness-rankings.html

 

Aviation & Brexit 98

It was all the way back on 29 March 2017 that the United Kingdom (UK) submitted the notification of its intention to withdraw from the European Union (EU).  Today, on 29 August 2019 the UK remains an EU Member State.

1162 days since the 2016 referendum.  63 days until the UK plans to withdraw.

The new UK Prime Minister faces the same constraints as his predecessor but is approaching withdrawal from the EU in a different way.  Mentioning the UK Government’s constitutional chicanery, to keep the UK Parliament quiet, is not what I’m going to do here.  That subject is so widely covered everywhere else.  It has left most people astonished.

It seems what we have now is not a game of chess between the UK and EU where logical rules prevail.  This is more like a game of high stakes Poker[1].  The problems with such an approach to international relations is the inevitable escalation that’s a part of the process.   Not only that but the inability or impossibility of a nation State and its politicians to maintain a Poker face.

In civil aviation, the reality is that we need logical rules to keep the planes flying.  It’s a complex technical system.  If the UK falls out of EU based regulatory systems for parts, products[2], organisations and personnel licences a massive amount of work will need to be done.  No amount of bluff can substitute for demonstrated competence.  Or if it does substitute then safety, security and sound business can be severally compromised.  International insurers will not cover a plane, pilot or engineer that doesn’t have a recognised and respected regulatory certification or approval.

At this unfortunate hiatus in the Brexit process a lot of people are pacing the floor wondering what will happen next and what contingency measure to best take.  Sound advice is in short supply.  Official sources often hedge their bets.

In the end, given that both the UK and the EU take great pride in what they do to be competent, there will have to be a return to a form of mutual respect and recognition.  If Brexit is overturned that should be straightforward.  If Brexit goes ahead with a withdrawal agreement and the UK becomes a third country[3] that should be possible.  However, if a No Deal or a disorderly outcome prevails all bets are off.

[1] https://bicyclecards.com/how-to-play/basics-of-poker/

[2]  “product” means an aircraft, engine or propeller.

[3] A third country is a country not member of the EU.

Aviation & Brexit 97

The 40th G7 summit has taken place this week in Biarritz, France.  The 7 are Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom (UK), United States (US) and the European Union (EU).  Japan and Canada have just signed major free trade agreements with the EU.  Otherwise the talk was of increasing trade tensions between the world’s biggest economies, namely: US and China.  The environment did get a look in given the wild fires in South America.

In the past, G7 leaders have recognised the “urgent need” for the aviation industry to adopt zero-carbon growth strategy.   Since there was no joint statement from this week’s meeting its difficult to tell if this continues to be an urgent concern.  The signs are not good given the empty chair when discussion with world leaders were on helping the Amazon forest and reducing carbon emissions.

The International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) Carbon Offsetting & Reduction Scheme for Aviation (CORSIA) should also play an important role in achieving global environmental goals.  At a regional level, there’s the Advisory Council for Aeronautics Research in Europe (ACARE)’s long-term aim to reduce air transport CO2 emissions by up to 75% by 2050.  I don’t know if UK organisations will remain part of the ACARE[1] post-Brexit.  That may happen for those international companies wishing to remain with influence in Europe.

At his first G7 summit as UK Prime Minister, Mr Johnson was consumed by the thining quicksand of Brexit.  It’s said we have now gone from “a million to one” all the way to “touch and go[2]” as to whether the UK and EU agree a Brexit deal.

I’m wondering if Mr Johnson knows what “touch and go[3]” means.  Maybe he does and the “go” will be a last minute extension to forge a final agreement on the Irish issue.

One subject the Brexiters are looking at is cutting the UK’s Air Passenger Duty (APD).  APD was introduced in 1994.  It has grown to be one of the highest taxes on flying in the world and brings in a considerable revenue to the UK Treasury.  The UK MP for the town of Crawley, that’s near London Gatwick Airport, chairs an Air Passenger Duty All Party Parliamentary Group that meets in Westminster.  They are pressing the UK Government’s finance ministry to drop the tax to boost flying after Brexit.  What that will do for national and international environmental goals isn’t known.

A week ago, a leaked UK Cabinet Office Operation #Yellowhammer document was made public.  Setting out the likely aftershocks of a No Deal Brexit, it doesn’t make for pleasant reading.   It now appears that the document is from this month and not a historic document as some Ministers claimed.  In fact, a Government Minister dismissed this as “Project Fear” and “scaremongering” and yet the document is by the Government.  The report lists delays at EU ports and airports as one major risk.

The UK’s £36 billion aerospace sector is now faced with the work of preparing for a disorderly Brexit for a second time this year.  Without a doubt a No Deal Brexit remains the worst outcome for flyers and the aviation industry.  There are many UK businesses that are particularly vulnerable since they are not able to adapt.  Also, with the currency falling in value control may go to overseas buyers as they snap up good deals.

There is no mandate for a reckless No Deal Brexit but it seems increasingly likely.

[1] https://www.acare4europe.org/about-acare/members

[2] https://www.euronews.com/2019/08/23/g7-summit-begins-on-shadow-of-us-china-trade-war

[3] https://calaero.edu/what-is-a-touch-and-go/

Aviation & Brexit 96

69 days left on the Brexit clock.  Only a few days untill the UK Parliament returns from its summer break.  And now 30 days to find an alternative to a hard border on the island of Ireland.  Or is that now 28 days?  That said, Brexiters have had decades to come up with a workable answer to that question so I wonder if a few more days will change anything.  Now, the EU is waiting for “realistic, operational & compatible” proposals.

If the UK leaves the EU on 31 October 2019, the UK Civil Aviation Authority (CAA)[1] will take over the functions performed by the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) in relation to aviation approvals and certifications.  The EASA’s mandate and roles as an Agency of the EU with regulatory and executive tasks in the field of civil aviation safety are not altered within the EU-28 and 4 associated Countries until the UK leaves.

Details about a non-negotiated EU exit and its impact on aviation and aerospace industries have been published.  It’s worth having a look at “The CAA’s guide to Brexit No Deal & Aviation Safety[2]”.  It’s well presented and a useful summary of the temporary measure in place.  There’s one mistake on the final page on slide 13 where it references: “membership of the global aviation regulator ICAO”.  The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) is a specialised agency of the United Nations (UN).  The UK has been an ICAO Member State since its origins.  However, it’s not right to call ICAO an aviation regulator.  It does publish Standards and Recommended Practices (SARPS) and its Member States are expected to comply with those SARPS.  However, although ICAO conducts audits it doesn’t have a right of enforcement and thus is not a regulator.  It can’t levy fines or amend or remove approvals or certificates.  It doesn’t issue licences or directives.  Aviation is a global industry, but it is not globally regulated.

In 31 days, the ICAO Assembly[3]​ takes place in Montreal, Canada.  This is the international organisation’s sovereign body where major policy decisions are made for the next 3-years.  ICAO’s 193 Member States, and many international organisations are invited to the general Assembly.  Many working papers and information papers are submitted for the participants to consider.  European papers are coordinated before the Assembly[4].  In this case they are submitted and presented by Finland on behalf of the EU and its Member States, the other Member States of the European Civil Aviation Conference (ECAC), and by EUROCONTROL.  I imagine this situation will remain unchanged if Brexit happens since the UK will remain a member of ECAC and EUROCONTROL.   At least as far as I know.

[1] https://info.caa.co.uk/brexit/

[2] http://publicapps.caa.co.uk/docs/33/CAP1714BrexitAviationSafetyE3.pdf

[3] https://www.icao.int/Meetings/a40/pages/default.aspx

[4] https://www.icao.int/Meetings/A40/Pages/wp.aspx

Aviation & Brexit 95

Thundering down the road like a man obsessed, UK Prime Minster Johnson stares the Brexit deadline of 31 October in the face.  Some British people like this bravado.  It plays well as emotions are manipulated in the heightened reality of a stage drama.  Unfortunately, this isn’t a dramatic production this is real life.

In real life, the UK is not prepared for a No Deal Brexit.  Separation from the European Union (EU) without a mutually beneficial, reasonable and rational deal has become almost a certainty.  Forcing this situation on every walk of life in the UK is tragic.

The aviation industry is not ready[1].

Here’s another aspect of this situation that troubles me.  I was an engineering student in the city of Coventry at the end of the 70s, beginning of the 80s.  Large swaths of traditional British manufacturing were dying all around us.  The UK Government’s approach was: “devil take the hind most”.  Its crude free market thinking that I see in play now.  It goes like this: we, the Government will not support you (industry) if you are not strong enough to survive a transformative downturn because that’s the test of your worth to the nation.  So, rather than helping major employers bridge a gap, reorganise and build a future the UK lost or sold off potential future global industrial titans.

In aviation, travel maybe be governed by foreign exchange volatility in the short-term.  In the long-term technology and the regulatory framework are the key issues.  To suceed, the more harmonised regulations become the more of an enabler they can be.

Today, regardless of the domestic political machinations of Brexit there’s a global industrial transformation going on.  Some people call it the fourth industrial revolution.  Reading numerous intelligent commentators[2] on this subject it’s more than clear that the aggressive approach taken in the early 80s is completely hopeless when faced with what’s coming down the road.

As an internationalist, I’ll use some words that start with “inter” – interaction, interconnection, interdependency and interrelation.  Connections between or among the people, things, or places are growing at an increasing rate.  This will not slow down.  More and more of everything around us is connected.  In this world small minded nationalist thinking, barriers and walls are an anathema.

Brexit is hopelessly doomed.  It encourages short-term reactive thinking, as we have seen over the last 3-years.  It’s fuelled by hideously outdated free market thinking.  It’s rejecting the power of cooperative working across Europe.  In 72 days[3], there’s not much that can be done to reorient given such global trends.  The conclusion is that Brexit must be delayed or preferably stopped.  We (UK) are going down the wrong road.

[1] https://www.mro-network.com/maintenance-repair-overhaul/opinion-three-years-waiting-brexit-and-still-not-fully-prepared

[2] https://www.aerosociety.com/news/global-megatrends-and-aerospace/

[3] https://interactive.news.sky.com/2017/brexit-countdown/

 

Aviation & Brexit 94

Preparations for the UK’s Brexit continue but these times cannot be “normal”. New Conservative UK Prime Minister Johnson insists that the UK will leave the EU on the 31 October 2019 “do or die”.  Bellicose politicians can be inclined to use outspoken language but in this case it’s more than even the House of Commons is accustomed too.

A sharp divergence for all to see.  There’s the pragmatic and rational approach where judicious arrangements are made around an overall deal between the UK and EU.  This is not exactly a win-win but it’s to get as close to it as possible in the current climate.  At the same time, there’s the reckless push to sever relationships with only the minimum of temporary provisions at the lowest possible default conditions.   This really is the lose-lose for both UK and EU[1].

Sitting in the South East of England, as I do, I see there’s a myopic element to this foolish “do or die” attitude.  It’s a political approach that’s taken to satisfy a domestic audience as if the rest of the world doesn’t exist.  However, the rest of the world can see what is going on between UK and EU and most reports aren’t complementary.

The next European Council[2] summit is 14 days before the UK is due to leave the EU.  The agenda for that meeting in Brussels has yet to be published but Brexit is surely going to be on the list.  On 19 October there’s to be big protest march through the streets of London.  Organised by the European Movement and the People’s Vote[3] campaign this is expected to be a major historic event.   So, a full 3-years after the 2016 UK referendum the final half of 2019 is going to be a rough ride for all involved and beyond.

Aviation companies, licenced people and regulators have been preparing for Brexit from the moment the UK Prime Minister’s letter kicked-off the Article 50 process.  The stated assumption was that a UK-EU deal would be struck, and a reasonable degree of continuity would be maintained.  In an inconsistent fashion UK Prime Minister Johnson has recently said that the chances of a No Deal Brexit are a million to one.   This doesn’t seem credible given that no negotiations are on-going.

What does anyone believe in such a strange situation?  With days to go, I believe it’s wise to plan for the worst-case scenario, of a No Deal Brexit with animosity on both sides.  Services will be vulnerable to interruption. Transactions will be more complex. The regulatory framework will be uncertain.  It’s highly likely some civil aircraft will be grounded because they can’t get the right parts with the right paperwork at the right time.

Post Brexit the UK will be viewed as a “Third Country” in respect of European legislation.  A huge amount of work will be needed to re-build relationships.

[1] https://adage.com/article/digitalnext/lose-lose-beats-win-win/310805

[2] https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/european-council/2019/10/17-18/

[3] https://www.peoples-vote.uk/