Category: British

Aviation & Brexit 92

The clock is ticking.

Having studied fatal accidents in aviation, and other industries there’s often several factors that come together to create a catastrophic event.  One of them played a part in the loss of two of NASA’s Space Shuttles.

Everyday complex activities are part of the way we live and work.  Operating aircraft or running a Government requires people to work together in dependable ways often following tried and tested processes and procedures.  Nothing new in that, you might say.  However, it’s an arguable point to say that the level of complexity we face is constantly increasing.

I make no argument for always sticking to the same ways of doing business but only that before changes are introduced it’s wise to do some analysis of the risks involved.  Brexit is no exception.  Some of the risk assessments associated with Brexit don’t make happy reading.  A Whitehall paper outlining the reality of a No Deal Brexit was recently in the news.

One of the most astonishing aspects, at least to me, of the approach of the Johnson Government is the normalisation of the risks associated with a No Deal Brexit.  Risks that in earlier times would have been avoided at all costs are now welcomed.

I believe that this has crept up upon us because it became politically expedient for Conservatives to deviate from what’s normal.  And I mean deviate a long way from what’s normal.  This is incredibly dangerous.  It’s dangerous because initially nothing untoward happens.  Afterall we are talking about a future event, namely 31 October.

This “normalisation of deviance” is what NASA suffered[1].  One day it became expedient to deviate from certain processes and then this became normal.  People became accustomed to the deviation, so they don’t consider it to be deviant anymore.  Then disaster struck.  After the disaster it was difficult to understand why action was not taken to stop and think again.

Our British political or social normalisation of deviance is a pathway to self-harm.  It’s proving hard to get people to stop and think again.  But we must continue to try.

[1] https://sma.nasa.gov/docs/default-source/safety-messages/safetymessage-normalizationofdeviance-2014-11-03b.pdf?sfvrsn=c5421ef8_4

 

Aviation & Brexit 91

90-days[1] to the next predictable Brexit cliff edge.  The UK Government has still got a hell of a lot of work to do to get ready for a Brexit No-Deal scenario.  The international currency markets have detected the fragility of the current situation and reacted accordingly.  The British pound sterling is at 1.216 to the $ and 1.094 to the EURO as I write this short sentence.  That’s an incredibly poor rate, even if you took the view that the pound sterling has been overvalued.  British summer holiday makers are going to find this fact painful, but the flipside is tourist coming to the UK are going to have a great time.  No doubt, air traffic will continue to grow to carry these welcome visitors from overseas.  Unfortunately, in the short-term the threatened strike at British Airways (BA) may put a damper on that prospect.

The bigger issue is: what the state of the national currency says about the level of risk we are taking with Brexit.  It’s not a vote of confidence.  Currency rates may tumble further.

There’s a list of Brexit downsides and one is that British assets now look cheap to overseas purchasers.

I’m not saying that this is a specific example, but I noted with interest the sale of the British defence and aerospace group, Cobham to a US private equity firm for 4 billion pounds[2].  Today, Cobham employs 10,000 people.  They were known for the development of airborne refuelling systems, which was a British innovation.  This organisation is part of my aerospace design history.  In the 1990s, on a regular basis, I visited what was then called; Flight Refuelling Ltd, just outside Bournemouth.  I did numerous approvals of modifications to the Falcon 20 aircraft that they flew[3].

Sadly, the UK’s recent keenness to leave the European Union (EU) without a deal, on 31 October 2019 is like hanging out a big “For Sale” sign.  Sound companies with valuable intellectual property look like a good buy.  That said, this is not new for the UK.  There are desperate periods in our history where selling the family silver was quite the vogue.

My point is that there are valuable British assets that look cheap to foreign investors given the uncertainties of Brexit.  Which is ironic because it’s completely the opposite of what Brexit was supposed to be about, namely; take back control.

History always has lessons for us.  Even recent history.  I’d recommend an offering from the UK TV Channel 5 with Portillo’s series: “The Trouble with The Tories”[4].   He interviews many of the key players who brought the never-ending Brexit calamity upon us.  I watched it and thought, just how useless knowledge with hindsight can be.  Not only that but how dreadful British politicians are at assessing risk.

One thing I’m sure of, next week is going to another Brexit rollercoaster.  It’s as if we have invented perpetual motion.  It would be wrong to see No Deal as the end point or finish line.

[1] https://interactive.news.sky.com/2017/brexit-countdown/

[2] https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-cobham-m-a-advent/us-private-equity-group-advent-buys-uks-cobham-for-5-billion-idUKKCN1UK0NA

[3] http://www.aeroflight.co.uk/tag/flight-refuelling-ltd

[4] https://twitter.com/channel5_tv/status/1157040808845094912?s=20

 

No Mandate

There’s no mandate whatsoever for a No Deal Brexit[1].  None.  Having the false assertion out there, and so widespread that this is a great danger to our democracy.  Pushing forward with a policy based on a lie, that everyone can see is normally the preserve of dictatorships and communist regimes.

The new British Foreign Secretary Mr Raab has been speaking falsely.  The new UK Government has no mandate for a No Deal Brexit.  In fact, there would be no need to blame the European Union (EU), as Mr Raab has started to do if there was a true mandate for a No Deal Brexit.

Before the 2016 EU referendum, the lead Leave vote campaigners were saying that the UK would be mad to leave the European Single Market.  That European market that Britain had fought so hard to establish.  They were explicitly proposing a Norway-type deal and stating that getting such a deal would be quick and easy.  Leave vote campaigners sold Brexit on the basis that there was little risk as we held all the cards in any negotiations.   It doesn’t take long to survey the archives of British media from 2016 to understand just how far we have drifted from reality.  There’s an abundance of recorded evidence.  There’s no mandate for a No Deal Brexit.

If we move to the UK General Election of 2017, I don’t recall a No Deal Brexit being part of the last Conservative Party manifesto.  Yes, there was a commitment to negotiate a Brexit deal but not to give-up and walk away.

Now, I can hear a Brexiter saying but it’s the “default” position.  This word “default” is somehow used to justify what is in truth an active policy choice.  The UK Government has the power to stop a No Deal Brexit right up to the moment before it happens.  Unfortunately, at the moment, Johnson’s new Government does not have the will or the common sense to do so.

The lie that there is a mandate is likely to be sustained by the Johnson Government because it’s the only way they can justify “turbocharging” the preparation for No Deal Brexit planning.  Essentially that means throwing billions of taxpayers’ money at something they can’t define, and most people don’t want.

This morning the British Foreign Secretary told the big fib on BBC Radio 4.  It’s recorded and the rest of the world listening knows it’s a fib.  So, why would anyone take talk of any future negotiations seriously having heard his radio interview?

Also, let’s remember that the British Foreign Secretary who says the UK will do a No Deal Brexit on 31 October 2019 if the “undemocratic backstop” isn’t scrapped, is the same Mr Raab who was a Brexit Secretary.  Whatever happened to the The Ministerial Code?

Our sad state of affairs will leave us wandering in the wilderness for many years to come.  There’s an alternative.   Stop Brexit by a simple act of revoking Article 50[2].  Eat the humble pie and save Britain.  Action now.

[1] #NoDealBrexit

[2] #RevokeA50

Aviation & Brexit 90

Minister Michael Gove says the UK Government is “working on the assumption” that the United Kingdom (UK) will leave the European Union (EU) without a deal on Thursday, 31 October 2019.  A huge No-Deal Brexit public information campaign is on the way.  This doesn’t much change the facts on the ground, but it does put a bright red flag up to the whole Country and beyond.  There are denials that a UK General Election is on the way.  At the same time the new UK Government appears to be on an election footing.  Now, the architects of the Leave campaign in the 2016 referendum hold power in the UK.  It’s reasonable to ask; how on earth did we get to this point?

If you didn’t see the BBC documentary on the Brexit Crisis[1], I can thoroughly recommend it.  You can watch it on the BBC iPlayer.  It objectively tells the story of the Brexit negotiations, from behind the scenes on both sides.  The programme is not about aviation but that subject, just like 101 others is caught up in the incomprehensible political maelstrom that is Brexit.

As I write here, opinion polls give the new UK Government a slight bounce.  Those who say; “let’s just get it over with”, do seem to be getting a degree of support.  However, this feeling people may have, is very far from reality.  Those who think that a No Deal Brexit would at least be a way of moving on are wrong in every possible way.  It just means that after the 31 October there will be the beginning of a whole new round of painful negotiation and general frustration.

For a moment then I’ll assume the new British Prime Minister (PM) pushes through all the opposition to deliver a No Deal Brexit.  By any international measure this will be an indication of failure that other nations will observer and draw appropriate conclusions.  Putting aside domestic considerations, it’s irrelevant who may or may not be to blame for such an outcome.  It’s a failure.

In that international context; how long will it take for the UK and EU to come back to a close, cordial and stable relationship?  Initially, temporary measures, continuing uncertainty and periodic instability will undoubtedly prevail.  Using the past as an indicator, I will estimate at least a decade of competition, division and turmoil are likely.  That takes us up to 2030.

Certainly, by that time a great number of the people who voted to Leave the EU in 2016 will no longer be with us.  In fact, most people will have forgotten what all the fuss was about.  Much as few people can describe Suez, the humble pie and the bill[2].  But there will be humble pie and a bill.

If Brexit happens, in the coming decade, I am sure Scotland will become an independent nation.  The future of Ireland is less easy to predict.  The pound sterling will decline further as we sell more of the family silver.  UK’s ability to act on the global stage will be more dependent upon America.

This week, the new British PM talked of sunny uplands that would make Britain the best place in the world by 2050.   That’s an aspiration we can all share but the direction we are going in isn’t the one that will deliver success.   How long will it be before the new PM echoes one of his predecessors of 60 years ago and says: “You’ve never has it so good[3]”.

Personally, I hope I’m not writing these blogs in my 90s.  Still, you never know.

[1] https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m0006wj2/panorama-britains-brexit-crisis

[2] 1959 and The Anglo-Egyptian agreement

[3] UK Prime Minister MacMillan in the 1960s

Aviation & Brexit 89

The ancient adage that: “when in a hole, stop digging”, did once have meaning in British politics.  No more.  The rate at which deep political holes are being dug exceeds decades of measurement.  As a strategy, knowing something to be a bad idea and continuing to do it should have a limited lifespan.  A difficult reckoning must come.  Well, that’s conventional thinking.  With Brexit conventional thinking goes way out of the window.

The 2-year period provided for by Article 50(3) of the Treaty on European Union (EU) has been extended until Thursday, 31 October 2019.  Including the summer holidays and that’s about 14 weeks away.   Can a new UK Prime Minister (PM) secure a Brexit deal and is there time to get it through the UK Parliament by 31 October 31?[1]   They’d have to be a miracle worker.  There’s little working time left. Little time for deal making and little time to legislate.  Given past performance, it’s feasible but it’s extremely unlikely.

The prospective new PM has said that his first task will be to launch a huge No-Deal Brexit public information campaign to help minimise possible disruption[2].   That certainly is going to be interesting in respect of air travel to and from the UK.   The question is out there; will the UK Government be generous in providing financial support to businesses adversely impacted by a No-Deal Brexit?

There’s no doubt that UK airlines will be able to fly to the EU provided EU companies are permitted to fly to the UK.  That’s the most basic international rules being applied.  That said, at the heart of this immense political severance is the impact on people.  Brexit will reduce European aviation employment opportunities for UK citizens[3].   However, it may create new domestic opportunities as the UK struggles to construct a credible regime to replace the European system[4].

If the UK is to make a full departure from the European system, it would require a period in which to sign special arrangements with the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and other global regulators.  This hasn’t happened – yet.

The UK Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) will need to undertake a major investment and recruitment activity if it’s to take over necessary functions, and Bilateral Aviation Safety Agreements (BASAs) with all the mutual recognition agreements needed.  Such major changes from start to finish could take a decade to complete in the major global aviation markets.

I wonder what public information campaigns are going to do in the meantime.

[1] https://twitter.com/BBCParliament/status/1152256880246476800?s=20

[2] https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1151589697975492608?s=20

[3] https://blog.aviationjobsearch.com/what-does-a-no-deal-brexit-mean-for-aviation-employment-opportunities/

[4] https://www.prospect.org.uk/news/id/2018/July/6/CAA-must-prioritise-skills-pay-Brexit-plans

 

Aviation & Brexit 86

A new Conservative Party leader should be named on Tuesday, 23 July and then appointed UK Prime Minister (PM) one day later.  That’s only if the Government’s majority in the UK Parliament hasn’t crumbled.  Then the House of Commons (HoC) summer recess begins one day after[1].  The HoC returns on Tuesday, 3 September just before the political Party conference season gets started.  So, the idea that there’s time to apply Article 50 and negotiate a new deal with the European Union (EU) before the 31 October exit day is pure fantasy.  If there was unity, harmony and a convergence of positions then a small chance exists.  None of those three words can reasonably be used to describe the situation.

A lot of political talk still centres around the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and peculiar notions that it might be easier to get a deal with over 160 Countries than it is to deal with 27 Countries.  The WTO framework doesn’t cover key aspects of the UK economy, like: Aviation, Medicine, Export Licencing and Digital Data.  Often expressed as a sign of more “Unicorns”, frustration continues to grow amongst those who have gained a smattering of knowledge after 3-years of this merry-go-around.  As a result of all the nonsense spoken, there’s little doubt that Brexit is damaging the UK’s reputation as a good place to do business.

If Boris Johnson enters Number 10, Downing Street as PM then he could discard his firm promise to leave the EU, come what may on 31 October only then to see his Government fall.  Thus, the strong likelihood of a “No Deal” outcome with no implementation/transition period is looming.  Without a formal withdrawal agreement there’s only the temporary contingency measures that both the EU and UK[2] have published so far.   I’ve written about this in my Blog 61, 71 and 74.

One area of significance is how this event will impact aerospace Design Organisations (DO) who are primarily based in the UK.  Approvals issued by the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) to a UK DO, before the exit date will remain valid for 9 months from the day after the 31 October. To provide continuity, UK DO’s are being encouraged to apply to the UK Civil Aviation Authority (CAA)[3] for a national approval in advance of the exit day.  One small silver lining is that the UK CAA will not charge an up-front fee for issuing these approvals, provided the scope is the same as the EASA approval and no technical investigation is required.  After that a fee is changed for surveillance of the DO approval under a published scheme of charges.

This is one subject area amongst a large number, across many industries.  Yes, Brexit is a magnificent way to create extra bureaucracy and we will all end up paying for it in the long run.

[1] https://www.parliament.uk/about/faqs/house-of-commons-faqs/business-faq-page/recess-dates/

[2] https://www.gov.uk/guidance/prepare-to-work-and-operate-in-the-european-aviation-sector-after-brexit

[3] https://info.caa.co.uk/eu-exit/aerospace-design-organisations/

Aviation & Brexit 81

It’s about a month ago since I last wrote.  This has been a busy month.  European Parliamentary elections took place on Thursday in the UK.  The results of those elections will not be known until late on Sunday.  A long process of local and regional counting will take up most of Sunday.  What it will mean in the UK is still unclear but at least these were real votes in real ballot boxes.   The outcome of which should be a sound indication of the current public mood.

The UK is now in the position where if it ratifies the existing EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement (WA) before 31 October 2019, an EU withdrawal will take place on the first day of the month following the completion of the ratification procedures.  However, there are no signs that national ratification is on the cards.  The UK’s two largest political parties have given-up on negotiations to come to a compromise on Brexit.  This should be no surprise since a deal between the Conservatives and Labour would still have to pass the through a grid-locked House of Commons (HoC).  A compromise involving the UK staying in a Customs Union (CU) is more than the hard core Brexit supporting Conservatives can accept.  Now, as if the above wasn’t enough, the UK’s Prime Minister is stepping down.  A starting gun has been fired on a that leadership race and it’s unlikely to be helpful to any potential political compromise.

The Brexit stasis continues to have a pressing and disruptive impact on the aviation and travel industries.  Recently, the travel firm Thomas Cook reported a £1.5bn loss for the first half of the year[1].  Behind this were several factors but one of the bigger ones was potential customers putting off their summer holiday plans.

With Brexit delayed until later this year, the UK is exporting people.  Now record numbers are applying for Irish passports[2] and that may give a boost to aviation in Ireland.  As an indicator, I’ve had a conversation with a person prepared to relocate his businesses if Brexit remains unresolved.

In the technical regulation arena, the objective would seem to be to maintain as much continuity as possible[3].   Our international rules-based system assumes that Countries will work together to improve conductivity.   But the situation remains fluid between the UK and EU, and there are still big questions to answer before we reach 1 November 2019.

The power-play going on between US and China is not a good background in which to continue with the uncertainty of Brexit.   The UK should be defending multilateralism in this situation.  A choice needs to be made since the UK’s aviation future need not shift from an influential rule-maker into a rule-taker.  In this region, retaining membership of EU Agencies, like EASA remains a viable option.

Brexit is now in a go / no-go position.  I’m more of the opinion that the project must be terminated and quickly.  Even if it is not, close alignment with the EU still has major benefits.   Is there the political vision in the UK to steer Brexit to a conclusion?  It’s going to be well into July 2019 before we even have a hint as to the answer to that question.   3-years since the UK referendum and its only uncertainty that is certain.

[1] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48292318

[2] https://www.irishpost.com/news/how-to-get-irish-passport-166453

[3] https://ebace.aero/2019/news/latest-news/ebace2019-session-looks-at-impending-brexit/

 

Brexit & Aviation 79

The European Union (EU) has agreed to extend #Article50 a second time.  This could delay any possible #Brexit until 31 October 2019.  What implications will this have on the UK while it remains in the EU?  A British Parliament House of Commons briefing explains the situation.  

The times we are in could never be called normal.  Brexit trundles on laying waste to everything it touches.  At the same time, British MPs go on a jolly Easter holiday as if nothing much is happening.  But political activists on the ground in the UK are busy campaigning vigorously for UK local elections and an almost certain European Parliamentary election.

Over the last week, talking to people in the US, those who are not avoiding the subject are as divided as we are in the UK.  The object of their division is one man.   President Trump is either the best President ever or the source of all a nation’s problems.  The Canadians I spoke to, are confused and mystified by the reported behaviour of the UK.

The event I was attending in Atlanta was run by Aviation Week[1].  They are reporting the substantial impacts of Brexit and there’s nothing positive to say on the subject.   The expectation is that it’s going to be a “difficult summer” to say the least.   The lack of clarity over all aspects of the UK’s current situation remains astonishing.   The danger is that it becomes easier to do business in other Countries and the industry avoids investment in the UK.

To say something positive, it was refreshing to see the UK’s Aerospace Wales[2], a trade body representing the aerospace and defence industries in Wales, was exhibiting in Atlanta.

[1] http://m.aviationweek.com/awincommercial/uk-airlines-airports-already-see-substantial-brexit-impact

[2]  www.aerospacewalesforum.com

 

Brexit & Aviation 77

The original Brexit transition date has gone by.  Am I comfortable writing this on 1st April?  Well it’s past lunchtime so it would now be bad form to make a joke about the whole debacle.

It’s another day of UK Parliamentary “indicative” votes or should I say evening?  We might imagine a compromise be sought and happiness reigns.  However, every time I hear a UK politician talk about compromise, they usually mean others coming around to their point of view.  The outcome of the “indicative” votes held by the House of Commons (HoC) on 27th March were received with disappointment but at least they were an attempt to move forward.   Regarding the future course of the Brexit the, UK Parliament is deeply divided on the big decisions, but voting patterns are starting to emerge.

Clearly, the international money markets think that a “soft” Brexit is the flavour of the day.  UK’s currency hasn’t ducked and dived too much for a while.  On the table is the proposal to remain in a Customs Union (CU) with the EU Member States.  This doesn’t explicitly touch on civil aviation although it does concern the movement of goods and services.  Implicit in this arrangement is close cooperation and collaborative working.  So, it’s conceivable that might extend to such possibilities as participation in European Agencies.

Whilst compromise and consensus are desirable and nice to talk about, the tone of the continuing public debate isn’t getting any calmer.  The BBC News Reality Check[1] team just published a reasonably worded assessment called “Brexit: Will flights be disrupted?”.  Reading some of the comments to this item posted on Social Media indicates that we have a long way to go.  The more polite ones are along these lines: I can’t believe people really think this is an issue, we few our planes before the EU and media starts scaremongering just before the Easter holidays.  The knee-jerk reactions of vocal Brexit supporters are to deem anything that paints their project in a negative light as: bias and scaremongering, regardless of its veracity.

There’s a tendency to ignore the fact that the single market in aviation has transformed flying for British air travellers.  There’s greater choice and competition and new routes across Europe and beyond.   It’s impossible to go back to the 1970s.  And who would want to go back to a State controlled industry without much concern for passengers?  Ignoring the reality that the EU has delivered is twisted and downright foolish.  After nearly 3-years no one knows what Brexit is or will become.  It’s a truly shocking situation.

[1] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47225806

Brexit & Aviation 76

History gives us a context within which to set current events.  Rooting through some boxes, I came across a copy a UK CAA Safety Regulation Group in-house publication called “Aviation Standard” dated March 1991.  I kept it because it had a picture of me as a newly joined young airworthiness surveyor.  At the time the aviation industry was suffering the effects of recession and the Gulf War.  Pressure was on to keep fees and charges low but not to let up on essential safety activities.

What’s interesting is that 28 years ago the news was that the Joint Aviation Authorities (JAA) Headquarters was to move from London Gatwick to Hoofddorp, near Amsterdam Schiphol.  The 18 JAA Countries had decided to move from sharing office space with the UK CAA at London Gatwick to a new building in the Netherlands.

The staff newspaper had a large page describing the work of the CAA’s Systems and Equipment Department.  At that time, the department that I joined had 22 specialist design surveyors and supporting admin staff.  There were 5 technical specialist sections, addressing hydromechanical, cabin safety and environmental systems, power plant installation and fuel systems, and electrical and avionics.   This department covered all types of aircraft large and small, helicopters, airships and even hovercraft.

Contrary to the belief of some people, The UK has played a major part in shaping how aviation safety regulation developed in Europe.  What we have is as the result of concerted efforts over more than a generation.  It saddens me greatly to think that we are in the process of trying to dismantle that achievement.  An achievement that is recognised worldwide.

Back to the current challenge of Brexit and how it’s being exacerbated by political indecision and pure folly.  New Aviation Safety legislation has passed into European law ready to come into force if there’s a No-Deal Brexit.   The effects of this law are to create a breathing space so that companies can re-establish the approvals they need to operate.

Also, a new UK Aviation Safety Statutory Instrument (SI) was passed by both the House of Commons and the House of Lords and published as UK law.

The UK industry group; ADS has published a useful summary that is available on their website[1].  No doubt this will be updated as we discover if the planned leaving date of either 12 April 2019 or 22 May 2019 is to happen, or Brexit gets cancelled or delayed again.  Whatever UK Parliamentarian do it doesn’t seem the No-Deal Brexit outcome has yet been killed off for sure.

[1] https://www.adsgroup.org.uk/blog/no-deal-brexit-and-the-state-of-preparatory-aviation-safety-legislation/