Category: Economy

We can have confidence in Britain’s capabilities without having to believe in Gove’s economic miracle. Anyway, there’s a huge contradiction at the heart of the leave campaign’s claim.  They are saying; trust me because all the others are wrong.  A long list of experts says; REMAIN is best option out of the two but Gove says the opposite.

Let’s consider this situation. If all the calculations of the world’s forecasters are all wrong, then major decisions are being poorly made across the globe.  Investments and the spending of Governments are in error.  The inevitable conclusion from this is that chaos and recession are imminent and inevitable.  In such an event, Britain would be impacted regardless of being IN or OUT of the EU.  Whatever happens; “No man is an island”.

However, if the calculations of the worlds forecasters are at least half way right there is a chance of continuing recovery and stability. There’s a chance risk is being managed and that decisions based on those forecasts are sound.  To me this scenario seems by far the most plausible and a better bet.

It’s true we should not choose our vote solely on the basis of what experts say, particularly economists but it would be foolish to ignore their information. You can drive a car by looking out of the window and daydreaming but its far safer to pay attention and glance down at the instruments from time to time.

Britain is already a “progressive beacon” in the world. That position has been reached because we have embraced partnerships and understand how to work with others.  Being in the EU does not stop Britain projecting its influence.  In fact, leaving the EU would be a powerful negative signal to everyone we work with around the globe.

I conclude that the overwhelming case to REMAIN in the EU has not changed in the last weeks.

Britain is in a good position. We have the best of both worlds.  At the same time as having a seat at the table in Europe, Britain continues to be one of the major players at a global level.  This comes from our unique history and an ability to lead in significant areas.

The choice for Britain is a stark one. It’s either to be a fully active member of the EU, as it has been or to stand apart protecting its own limited interests whilst at the same time being greatly affected by the EU.  If Britain is no longer a member it will not be in a position to influence the development of the EU.  At the same time, globalisation is going to require more collaboration and not less.

Today, Britain benefits from the level playing field created by the European single market. This is a bulwark against the destructive effects of national protectionism.  Britain has moved the EU towards a more open and flexible approach to business.  It has been a leading light in ensuring that necessary regulation is not a burden but an asset.  Britain has also encouraged overseas investors to see it as a preferred route into Europe.

None of these things happened overnight. Decades of work at the heart of the EU have maximised the opportunities for British industry and services.  This is particularly true for the pharmaceutical sector and financial services.  It’s also true in the inherently international aviation sector.

No matter how you read it all the economic arguments stack up in favour of remaining in the EU. That’s not to say that the EU is perfect but neither is the alternative.  In fact, leaving the EU carries an order of magnitude greater risk than remaining in.

That said, Britain will stay in the EU only if REMAIN supporters put their cross in the REMAIN box on the ballot paper. There are a great number of powerful distractions during the run up to the EU referendum vote.  There are numerous red herrings all tempting voters to jump one way or another.

Putting to one side the political personalities pushing for your attention the basic choice is IN or OUT. It gets no more complex than the two sides of a coin.  I believe the only way forward is to stay IN the EU and I hope you do too.

Do you try to manage or do you prefer to the laissez faire approach? I guess that’s one of the questions at the heart of the EU referendum debate. It’s clear that the European economy is at the centre of the referendum campaign. On both sides of the argument: REMAIN or LEAVE.
The detailed pros and cons of Britain’s EU membership can be debated until the cows come home but it doesn’t seem to move people’s voting intentions. Everyone agrees that the “pound in your pocket” is a big motivator but that’s set against lots of contradictory arguments. All but understating the fact that most economic big guns have come out firmly in support of REMAIN.
Let’s go back to the start; do you manage, that is plan, implement, check and make changes to meet your goals or do you kick-off your heals, throw caution to the wind and just see what turns up? That latter laissez faire approach would seem to be the one most favoured by the LEAVE camp.
Let’s be frank, I don’t think that will work at all. It certainly won’t work for the vast majority of people who are finding life financially hard going. What irritates me about much of the LEAVE campaign is the casual manner of saying that no matter what happens it will be “all right on the night”. That’s not reassuring if you’ve major bills to pay and a large mortgage.
I think, Britain needs to continue to take a managed approach. One of the most significant factors to consider is the governance of the EU and relations between euro and non-euro members. Outside the EU, Britain is more vulnerable than it is inside. Inside the EU, Britain can manage the relationship it has with the member states that use the euro. Outside the EU, there is the danger that economic conflict will emerge. Inside the EU, Britain can use its political power to ensure that there’s a level playing field.
It’s likely people’s voting intentions are moved by the balance between economic security and insecurity. My case is that we need to keep our seat at the table in the EU. Britain needs to REMAIN in the EU.