Tag: Brexit

Brexit & Aviation 107

Remarkable as it may seem we are just 18 days to UK Prime Minister Johnson’s artificial Brexit deadline of 31st October 2019[1].  Whatever happens next, we know relative to the UK’s current EU Membership, Johnson’s proposals are substantially negative[2].

We know the opinion polls are showing that the British public has turned against Brexit.  Brexit means bureaucracy, debt, less choice, loss of influence and perpetual turmoil.  Why on earth would anyone still want it?  Even those who might want it are likely to say they don’t want what’s on offer.  For example, the DUP in Northern Ireland has already rejected the notion of a “double customs” solution[3].

Next weekend, hundreds of thousands of people will take to the streets to demand a People’s Vote in what will be one of the largest protests in British history.  There’s still someway to go before this matter is settled.  Clearly, the European Union (EU) wants to avoid a disorderly Brexit and establish as close a future relationship as possible with the UK.  I hope that that wish is reciprocated.

In aviation, about 1 in 10 UK pilots think Brexit is positive[4].  I don’t know if cabin crew, air traffic controllers or engineers have been surveyed on the same subject.  That said, I’d be surprised if the result was different for any of the aviation professions.

Civil aviation has a well-established system for reporting what happened when things go wrong.  There’s a mature system under REGULATION (EU) No 376/2014[5] that states the rights and responsibilities of people in the European aviation system.  This is a way of sharing aviation safety information between authorities in the EU.

It’s vital.  Let’s say an aircraft has an undercarriage failure in Spain.  Then weeks later a similar type of aircraft has a similar failure in Finland.  It’s vital to join the dots to ensure the authorities fully understand what’s going on in day-to-day operations.  Much of this safety information is shared via the European Central Repository (ECR) called into being by EU legislation.  As a non-EU State and not being a member of EASA, the UK will lose direct access to the ECR[6].  Yes, information can be requested from the ECR through a written procedure but that’s no substitute to having direct access to the database.  I expect this is one of the many important issues associated with data sharing that are just waiting to pop out of Brexit.

[1] https://interactive.news.sky.com/2017/brexit-countdown/

[2] https://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/The-economic-impact-of-Boris-Johnsons-Brexit-proposals.pdf

[3]https://www.repubblica.it/esteri/2019/10/12/news/dup_s_nigel_dodds_rejects_double_customs_brexit_solution_it_cannot_work_-238366257/?refresh_ce

[4] https://www.balpa.org/Media-Centre/Press-Releases/Only-one-in-ten-pilots-think-Brexit-will-be-positi

[5] https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=OJ:JOL_2014_122_R_0002&rid=24

[6] https://info.caa.co.uk/brexit/ocurrence-reporting/

Brexit & Aviation 106

I’m waiting for the headline: The European Union (EU) has agreed to extend #Article50 a third time.  This could delay any possible #Brexit until June 2020.  Now, that sounds a lot saner than jumping off a cliff edge.  Especially if Britain and Ireland say they can bridge the gap between their two positions.  The Pound Sterling shot up as the markets took stock of the News that Prime Minister Johnson may not want to force us out of the EU on October 31st with No Deal.   Nevertheless, there’s a hell of a lot of people who remain with no trust in this administration.  The cold hard reality is that agreeing with Ireland most likely means the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP)[1] will be very unhappy.  Then the prospect of getting any deal through the UK Parliament gets even harder.

Amongst the latest news from Ireland is a series of Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)[2] on Brexit from the Irish Aviation Authority (IAA).  Post Brexit Ireland realises that it will need to develop new trade routes, especially those of air transport.

In the UK a “No-Deal Readiness Report” has just been released[3].  The part of the Government document on UK airlines highlights that Brexit means more bureaucracy and not less as some people may have claimed:

  • UK airlines operating to and from the EU will need to obtain a Part-TCO safety authorisation from the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) and an operating permit from each relevant Member State. The Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) website provides extensive and detailed information on the actions that airlines need to take on its website.
  • UK aviation personnel involved in the operation and maintenance of aircraft (pilots, cabin crew, engineers and air traffic controllers) will need to ensure they have obtained the relevant licences and safety authorisations from the CAA and EASA. The CAA website provides extensive and detailed information for the action that personnel and UK airlines need to take.
  • EU airlines will need to apply for an operating permit from the CAA, their website provides extensive and detailed information on the actions that EU airlines need to take.

Further on the document is quite clear that UK regulatory bodies will no longer be able to license products for the EU market.  UK regulators will take on regulatory functions currently carried out by EU regulatory bodies, like the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) in Cologne.  Further on in section E, the document talks about Aerospace goods.  It doesn’t make pleasant reading.  If the UK leaves without a deal, the EASA will no longer automatically recognise aviation safety certificates and approvals issued by the UK Civil Aviation Authority (CAA).

Aerospace companies continue to warn of “serious risk” in current plan, as the UK Government fails to reassure them about participation in EU agencies.   It might be nice to think that the UK will continue to be a global aviation leader but in this new situation it will be in competition with its former partners.  I suppose few who voted in 2016 realised any of this would be an outcome in 2020.

[1] The Democratic Unionist Party is a unionist political party in Northern Ireland favouring British identity

[2] https://www.iaa.ie/news/2019/10/02/iaa-publishes-brexit-faqs

[3] https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/no-deal-readiness-report

Brexit & Aviation 105

The title of this Government’s Brexit proposals could be called: I’m Sorry I Haven’t A Clue.  But that title has been taken by a long-running BBC Radio comedy series.  And I do mean long-running.  The last series was number 71.  If you listen to this clip of “The Uxbridge Dictionary[1]” it might mask the Brexit murk for a minute or two.  By the way, Uxbridge is the Parliamentary Constituency of the Prime Minister.

Here’s a point to clarify.  I keep seeing references to the global aviation regulator ICAO.

Now, as I have mentioned before, ICAO is the International Civil Aviation Organisation.  It’s the organisations 75th birthday this year and that’s good reason to celebrate.  It brings together 193 of the world’s States.  However, ICAO is not a “regulator”.  It does not issue approvals, licences or certificates.  It does not have enforcement powers, like a CAA.  I was going to say that it does not investigate aviation accidents but, I believe it has in one or two special cases.

A key technical role of ICAO is to set Standards and Recommended Practices.  From that the States develop their own framework of legislation that empowers their organisations, sometimes called Agencies or Authorities or Administrations or Directorates to do the regulatory work.

It must be like this given that there’s a great range of different legal systems across the globe.  In fact, those who created ICAO recognised this reality from day one and it’s enshrined in the Convention on International Civil Aviation, also known as the Chicago Convention[2].   The Convention is explicit about the complete and exclusive sovereignty of contracting States.  Although as I learned last week there’s one or two exceptions to this exclusivity.

The European Union (EU) is recognised as a regional organisation at ICAO.  Nevertheless, each European State has, or shares a delegation at ICAO’s HQ in Montreal.   When it comes to making policy for international civil aviation the EU Member States work together.  Coordination is vital to make an impact inside a multinational and multicultural organisation like ICAO.

Yet, its unclear how Brexit will change this arrangement, or if it will change at all.  The opportunity to work together on common interests is always possible.  On issues, like climate change it’s highly likely that Europe and the US will have more in common than say; China, India and Russia.

Where difficulties are more likely are when technical standards in Europe and the US differ.  Then the possibility of competition to set international standards might present awkward choices.

[1] https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p00vm9vk

[2] https://www.icao.int/publications/pages/doc7300.aspx

 

Brexit & Aviation 104

The more I write these short Blogs, the more I talk about the subject, the more I’m no longer surprised that the complexity of the changes that are underway are not in the public mind.   Issues that I consider to be of great magnitude and changes of real concern are more for the specialist.   The detail of how the aviation system works is indeed specialist knowledge.

As an airline passenger, getting on a flight, we all take for granted a huge number of complicated interacting systems that we expect to work without us needing to understand how they work.  Just like when I pick-up my iPhone.  Even as a professional engineer, I only have a superficially knowledge of how my iPhone does what it does, but I do expect it to work every time.

So, how do we have any kind of discussion about good, bad or indifferent impacts of Brexit when we skit over the detail?  The answer is that we need to trust someone.  Trust a person to tell the truth, as best they know, about the potential impacts of Brexit.  Now if you have a list of different types of people and you ask: “tell me if you generally trust them to tell the truth, or not?” the results do stand up well for the specialist.  Being and Engineer, I’m heartened to see that “Engineers” are right up in the rankings[1].  Government Ministers and politicians are right at the bottom of the rankings.

So, why do so many people appear to believe politicians when they dismiss professional views on the impact of Brexit?  So called “Project Fear” is often quoted.  This seems counter to the evidence.   Or is it that what we may think is happening isn’t happening at all.  Maybe Government Ministers and politicians are not believed at all when dismissing professional views.  In fact, a big delusion exists.

Let’s put that to one side and look at where we are.  Now just into the new month we are days away from the European Union (EU) summit planned for 17 – 18 October.  UK law requires the UK Government to ask for a further extension to the existing deadline of 31 October.  The “Benn” law does not stop the extension request being submitted before the summit, but the expectation is that a request will be made after the summit.  Much depends on the results of the EU summit (European Council meeting).

Before the above the UK Government will hold a Queen’s Speech on Monday, 14 October.  This Queen’s Speech may be important in the sense that it could set out the next steps.  It’s strange in many ways given that the Government has no working majority.  The Queen’s Speech debate in Parliament on 15-17 and 21-22 October will be a sham.

Meanwhile, the UK Parliament’s Brexit Select Committee hasn’t met since before Prime Minister Johnson prorogued the UK Parliament in September.  So, is anyone looking at the detailed lawmaking that’s going on at the moment?

Let me be rash and speculate.  Looking 9 months ahead.  I think the European Council will make progress, but it will not resolve Brexit and UK will ask for an extension and it will be granted.  To apply leverage the UK Government will threaten to be uncooperative or at least an unhelpful Member State during the new extension period.  Politically, blame will be flying all over the place, but it will be so scattered that much of it will not stick in one place for long.

The new deadline will be the 4th anniversary of the 2016 referendum and will fall in June 2020.  Thus, there’s a high probability of a May 2020 UK General Election.  In many places, coincident with the UK local elections.  That’s where the new deal, of whatever shape and form it takes, will be out there in front of the British electorate.  By then the 27 EU Member States would have already agreed to it in principle.

[1] https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2018-11/veracity_index_2018_v1_161118_public.pdf

 

Brexit & Aviation 103

This week, I have had the great pleasure of being in Canada and I mean that without hesitation or reservation.  Here in Montreal the sun shines one day and then the next the rain comes thundering down.  Flowers are still blooming, and the leaves are just contemplating leaving the trees.  All in all, it’s a perfect time to be in the city.

The last time I participated in the International Civil Aviation Organisation’s (ICAO’s) 3-yearly Assembly was 6-years ago.  That was the 38th Assembly and this one is the 40th.  It’s noticeable how much less paper there is this time and how much more reliance there is on Apps[1], phones and tablets.  During Assembly Sessions, ICAO’s complete work programme in the technical, economic, legal and technical cooperation fields are reviewed[2].  Over 2000 people took part in the event.

In international aviation several of the major subjects under discussion are forever with us.  Reminding delegates of one of the biggest subjects all work stopped on Friday.  The biggest climate change march in Canada took place here in Montreal.  An estimated half a million people paraded through the city with serious intent but in an altogether carnival atmosphere.

Being here as an observer reminds me how much effort is required to get agreement between the 193 States of ICAO.  It’s a huge credit to the organisation’s secretariat that the Assembly runs like clockwork even when changes are made at the last minute.  EU Member States play a significant part in the proceedings of the Assembly.  Each as a sovereign State but acting together with a common purpose.  The UK is part of that European team.

The ICAO Assembly completed its selection of the 36 States that will oversee its work over the next period.  This is a complex voting arrangement that engages the States’ delegations for the first part of the Assembly.  The UK is one of those States selected to sit on the organisation’s Council[3].

Now, with Brexit I wonder what will happen in 3-years’ time.  Perhaps it’s less wise to speculate on that question than it may have been even a couple of weeks ago.  The situation is so turbulent as each party makes a final push to achieve their ends.

One truth is clear.  If people are serious about tackling global issues, like climate change, then organisations like ICAO have a pivotal role to play.  The more fragmentation of views there is in the world then the harder it will be to coordinate effective actions.   It’s hard enough now.

[1] https://www.icao.int/Meetings/a40/Pages/mobile-app.aspx

[2] https://www.icao.int/Meetings/a40/pages/default.aspx

[3] https://twitter.com/icao/status/1177957655299538946?s=20

 

Brexit & Aviation 102

UK Prime Minister (PM) Johnson’s Brexit meeting with the European Union’s Juncker was said to be “constructive” and contact between the two sides will now be stepped up.  I must wonder with amassment at this summary given that there are only 44 days left on the clock.  Whatever has been said, there’s been no change over the few days on the likelihood of the UK leaving the EU with or without a deal on 31 October.  In probability terms it looks highly likely.

Meanwhile the PM insists he did not mislead the Queen over suspending Parliament.  As of today, that questionable matter is in front of the highest Court in the land.

We are facing a situation where all the existing Agreements and Regulations derived from EU Treaties will fall on 31 October.  Yes, a new Regulation does address basic contingency measure that will be available for a short period[1] after Brexit day but then it’s the land of the completely unknown.

The implications of Brexit for Britain’s aerospace and aviation sector are looked at by the Royal Aeronautical Society and it doesn’t make for happy reading[2].  Yet, Brexit supporters will continue to talk loudly of scaremongering and so called “project fear”.

Let me not paint a picture that everything in the UK is chaos and everything in the EU is fine and dandy.  The hard facts are that we all have the same problems to confront.  A recent exchange between the European Parliament (EP) and the Executive Director of the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) on aviation safety showed serious challenges for us all[3].  At least in Brussels, MEPs get to ask questions on aviation safety.  Currently, with a suspended UK Parliament that’s not possible for UK MPs in the UK.

On another subject, commercially Brexit is looking like a bad dream.  Thomas Cook has blamed Brexit uncertainty and the weather for lower bookings and people are now on alert over the airlines possible collapse[4].

If you are a Licensed Engineer and have an EASA Part-66 Licence issued by the UK Civil Aviation Authority (CAA), be sure to check the guidance on whether you will be eligible to work on EU Member State registered aircraft in the event of a No Deal Brexit.

Wouldn’t it be nice to have some good aviation news for a change?  With the Brexit clock ticking to the point of 40 days and 40 nights maybe a change of biblical proportions is coming[5].

[1] Commission considers that this Regulation does not prejudge the nature of the future relationship with the United Kingdom in the area of aviation and that the exercise of competence in the Regulation is temporary and strictly limited to its period of validity.

[2] https://www.aerosociety.com/news/at-brexits-cliff-edge/

[3] http://www.europarl.europa.eu/committees/en/tran/home.html

[4] https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/42d537c0-d719-11e9-b098-ed106f659f8a

[5] Jesus fasted for 40 days and nights in the Judaean Desert. During this time, Satan came to him and tried to tempt him.

Brexit & Aviation 101

The implications of the prorogation of the United Kingdom (UK) Parliament and the inevitability of a UK General Election (GE) are difficult to fathom.  Factor in the flexibility with which rules and procedures are being interpreted and the mix is ever more complex.  It’s becoming clear that the hard Brexit deadline of 31st October 2019 isn’t a formula for a restoration of clarity, consistency and stability in the manner UK Government Ministers have been saying.

Let’s remember that a GE was scheduled for May 2022 and the last snap GE in 2017 did nothing to ease the pain of Brexit.  Moving the deck chairs around doesn’t stop the bad-tempered political rows that have become part of the daily news diet.

Although the general public had little interest in the subject until around 2015, the European question has become the defining political issue of our time.  Geography and history make the UK a European nation.  The question is that social, economic and political ties are at a crossroads.  Over the next few weeks British politicians trot off to their respective annual conferences.  All the time the hard Brexit deadline of 31st October 2019 looms in the background.

Meanwhile adjustments are being made with respect of European aviation.  Regulations adopted by the European Union (EU) in early 2019 which were due to come into effect on 29th March 2019 are now being extended so that they don’t expire until 24th October 2020[1].

It’s taken 3-years for the impact of leaving the European Single Market to sink in.  So much of what we do on a day-to-day basis is dependent upon Just-In-Time movements of good backwards and forwards between the UK and the rest of Europe.  The level playing field that has been created within the EU has benefited everyone but may have been taken for granted given its transparent success.

For a while the standards of the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) will continue to apply in the UK[2].  However, the UK will lose its strong influence over the development of the EASA regulatory framework.  In consultations there’s no doubt UK technical experts will continue to offer comments on proposed rule changes.  Such comments will be considered by EASA as they are from any “Third Country”.  That said, the UK will lose its seat at the table when it comes to making major financial and policy decisions that will shape the future European regulatory framework.

My assumption above is that the UK’s membership of EASA is terminated with a No Deal Brexit.  That means all the tasks currently undertaken by EASA will need to be taken up by the UK Civil Aviation Authority (CAA).  To fully understand the implications of this change it’s to do more than a full reversal of what has been achieved since 29 September 2003.  That’s when EASA first took on responsibility for its allocated tasks.  A backward move that has no upside.

[1] https://www.gov.ie/en/news/2df90c-minister-ross-welcomes-aviation-and-transport-brexit-extensions/

[2] https://sites-herbertsmithfreehills.vuturevx.com/20/15504/landing-pages/3107e-brexit-legal-guide-22-aviation.pdf

 

Aviation & Brexit 100

One of the problems with using a tool like: risk assessment to apply to a big change is that of choosing a scenario that has a realistic likelihood.  I don’t know if the sale of crystal balls has increased during the last 3-years, but it is surely a good business to get into.  It’s been 1167 days since the UK European Union (EU) Referendum Vote.  This week has turned the domestic political world upside down as if we had been asleep for all those days.  The UK now has a Prime Minister at the head of a minority Government that could fall relatively quickly.

At the same time, the UK Government’s man with the fancy title; Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster has launched a massively expensive “Get Ready for Brexit” campaign.  This strangely assured act has not been lost on comedians and satirists.  Although the public campaign says you must get ready for 31 October 2019, the UK Parliament may have a different idea as it asserts control over the next phases of Brexit.

57 days to go and the risks of more upsets remain.  Whatever happens, be on day one or after a short stopgap, leaving the EU means that the UK will no longer be able to trade as it has for the last 40 years with the Continental Europe.

In the run up to the original Brexit deadline at the end of March 2019, UK manufacturers including aerospace companies took up stock-pilling.  That has been expensive and holding high levels of stocks undermines the efficiency of production and delivery systems[1].

The overall value of global aircraft deliveries to UK industry, so far this year is £17 billion[2].  However economic factors and the threat of a No Deal Brexit outcome has slowed production.  UK aerospace production fell 3.8 per cent in the first half of 2019, continuing a downward trend from 2018 as the impact of Brexit continues[3].

For the sake of balance, recent news is not all negative as the 2019 Aerospace Manufacturing Attractiveness report from the professional services firm PwC points out[4].  Although this report could be criticised for layering analysis on top of analysis.  Not only that but the historic data used derives from the status-quo being that the UK was in the EU.

It seems that reliable crystal balls are hard to come by.  Most of them tend to draw conclusions from past performance and look forwards on the basis that there’s a degree on linearity with respect to what happens next.  Unfortunately, that’s not so useful when disruptive forces act in random ways.  Brexit is a step change that is not amenable to simple thinking.

[1] https://thesiliconreview.com/2019/8/no-deal-brexit-threatens-aerospace/

[2] https://www.pesmedia.com/uk-aerospace-manufacturing-aircraft-deliveries-no-deal-brexit/

[3] https://www.adsgroup.org.uk/news/newsroom/uk-aerospace-production-slows-as-no-deal-fears-intensify/

[4] https://www.pwc.co.uk/industries/aerospace-defence/insights/2019-aerospace-manufacturing-attractiveness-rankings.html

 

Aviation & Brexit 99

A public petition that says: Parliament must not be prorogued or dissolved unless and until the Article 50 period has been sufficiently extended or the UK’s intention to withdraw from the EU has been cancelled, stands at over 1.6 million signatures.  It’s one indication of the level of public outrage that the UK Government has provoked by its latest actions.

Going back to the pre-referendum world, my years commuting back and forth between the UK and Germany had a few ups and downs.  Snow shutting runways, an engine failure, delays and boring evenings spent in departure lounges at Gatwick and Cologne airports.  That said, on average the experience was fine.  I got to know the interior of an Airbus A319 was well as anyone.  British Airways, EasyJet and Germanwings, now Eurowings use the aircraft.  It’s a fine modern aircraft for flights of around an hour.

So, what will routine business travel be like if Brexit goes ahead after the end of October?  Looking at what’s available, a November flight from London to Cologne can still be scoped up for under £100.  But it’s emerging that short work assignments to European Union (EU) Member States are not going to be so easy as in the past[1].

For a start checking your passport is an absolute must.  Gone are the days of jumping on a High-Speed Train with nothing more than a driver’s licence as ID.  I often travelled between Cologne and Brussels having left my passport at home.  Now, it’s essential to check you’ve got at least 6 months left on your passport from the start of any journey.

The EU has amended its regulations to allow visa-free travel for UK nationals for short stays of 90 days in any 180-day period.  Another Brexit effect is that UK nationals will no longer be able to use EU lanes at airports and ports.  Also, UK nationals may be asked about the duration, purpose of visit and their financial means when entering the EU[2].

There are official UK Government warnings about travel[3].  One of them concerns medical insurance.  UK nationals visiting the EU need to have private medical insurance after 31 October.  That may be difficult for those with pre-existing conditions who may be excluded from cover.   My free European Health Insurance Card (EHIC) will not be much use after Halloween[4].

EU leaders are due to meet for a summit in Brussels on 17 – 18 October, just a fortnight before the UK’s current withdraw date.  There’s a small chance that Brexit negotiations will bring about an agreement.  It is only a small chance.

[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-13/advice-for-london-bankers-in-no-deal-brexit-refundable-tickets?

[2] Assuming a No Deal disorderly Brexit and continuing uncertainty

[3] https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1167436816405979137?s=20

[4] https://www.nhs.uk/using-the-nhs/healthcare-abroad/apply-for-a-free-ehic-european-health-insurance-card/#

 

Aviation & Brexit 98

It was all the way back on 29 March 2017 that the United Kingdom (UK) submitted the notification of its intention to withdraw from the European Union (EU).  Today, on 29 August 2019 the UK remains an EU Member State.

1162 days since the 2016 referendum.  63 days until the UK plans to withdraw.

The new UK Prime Minister faces the same constraints as his predecessor but is approaching withdrawal from the EU in a different way.  Mentioning the UK Government’s constitutional chicanery, to keep the UK Parliament quiet, is not what I’m going to do here.  That subject is so widely covered everywhere else.  It has left most people astonished.

It seems what we have now is not a game of chess between the UK and EU where logical rules prevail.  This is more like a game of high stakes Poker[1].  The problems with such an approach to international relations is the inevitable escalation that’s a part of the process.   Not only that but the inability or impossibility of a nation State and its politicians to maintain a Poker face.

In civil aviation, the reality is that we need logical rules to keep the planes flying.  It’s a complex technical system.  If the UK falls out of EU based regulatory systems for parts, products[2], organisations and personnel licences a massive amount of work will need to be done.  No amount of bluff can substitute for demonstrated competence.  Or if it does substitute then safety, security and sound business can be severally compromised.  International insurers will not cover a plane, pilot or engineer that doesn’t have a recognised and respected regulatory certification or approval.

At this unfortunate hiatus in the Brexit process a lot of people are pacing the floor wondering what will happen next and what contingency measure to best take.  Sound advice is in short supply.  Official sources often hedge their bets.

In the end, given that both the UK and the EU take great pride in what they do to be competent, there will have to be a return to a form of mutual respect and recognition.  If Brexit is overturned that should be straightforward.  If Brexit goes ahead with a withdrawal agreement and the UK becomes a third country[3] that should be possible.  However, if a No Deal or a disorderly outcome prevails all bets are off.

[1] https://bicyclecards.com/how-to-play/basics-of-poker/

[2]  “product” means an aircraft, engine or propeller.

[3] A third country is a country not member of the EU.