I don’t like to say it. I will. The campaign for the next UK General Election (GE) has started.
That’s not to say that it didn’t start on Thursday, 4 July 2024. Sorry about the double negative. The Labour Party won a landslide victory as the Conservative Party vote collapsed just over 2-years ago. The electorate had finally had enough of 14-years of Conservative-led government.
Naturally, I wonder if it’s the case that government’s lose elections rather than opposition parties win them. There was a general mood in 2024 that the government had to go. I believe, it wasn’t so much a distaste for the Prime Minister (PM) of the day.
Part of the Conservative collapse was a surge in Liberal Democrat support. Parliamentary seats that had been “blue” for decades fell like nine pins.
Between a dissolution of parliament and polling day there can be less than 3-months. The process doesn’t have to be that speedy. However, PM’s who choose to go early often want to strike while the iron is hot. In terms of windows of opportunity, there’s a lot to be said for elections early in the year. Before the summer heat takes hold and on or after the local elections in early May each year. Winter elections are rarely preferred given the dark evenings and likelihood of poor weather.
So, that puts May-July 2027 and May-July 2028 in the frame. No PM can wish for the prospect of going right up against the wire in 2029. It can seem an act of desperation. Opposition parties would capitalise on that position as a sign of weakness.
Since we have a different Labour PM from the one who won on 2024, it seems reasonable that he would want to have a mandate to govern of his own. A renewed agenda, a new manifesto.
So, is the UK no more than 8 months, or so, away from a GE? Frankly, I don’t know. Many of the 650 members of the House of Commons elected in 2024 are still getting their feet under that table. Working out what the job of an MP is all about. I can’t imagine that they will be pushing the PM to throw caution to the wind. That said, if the main opposition parties remain struggling to find their feet, and haven’t organised themselves for a national election, then the door is open for the governing party to push through.
Would a PM calling an early election be punished by the electorate? Feed-up with all the instability of recent years. Or has volatility become such a part of the UK’s political landscape that no one will bat an eyelid. Just another roll of the dice.
Whether I like it or not, the UK has become more presidential. The personality of the PM is a factor in play. In not many of the electorate will be deeply engaged in reading every line of a new party manifesto.
In that popular political game, the national press like to build people up only to knock them down and do that as many times as it commands attention (clicks). The fate of Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer is a case in point. I couldn’t describe either of them as bad men. Certainly not egotists, idiots, or fools. Social media postings did that in abundance.
In this pseudo-presidential system, which has evolved in the UK, the popularists politicians have an advantage. Their formula is to use a megaphone to magnify prejudices and grievances. Can that onslaught be countered by the forces of hopefulness, openness, and positiveness? It’s a challenge to Liberals and Progressives who embrace an upbeat vision. Possible. I do remember the 1990s slogan – things can only get better. I wonder if they can in this decade.
