Future – John Vincent

Future of Aviation: Enhancing Safety and Resilience

The aim is clear. A safe, secure, sustainable and resilient international aviation system. I’d add to that list an ambition to continuously improve.

And that’s in the face of the challenge that was recognised 30-years ago. With an aviation system that knows how to archives a high level of safety, even incremental improvement is challenging. Factor in projected air traffic growth that’s unabating. What we know is that that continuously improving the global accident rate requires active interventions.

Since here I can only highlight the key priorities, I’ll choose three aspects of active intervention. Back to what I said earlier in my talk. Aviation is still climbing that maturity ladder.

Digitisation has facilitated a growth in proactive work. Initiatives and plans identify actions aimed at solving known aviation safety problems. But the next step remains some way off. It’s that ability to anticipate safety problems before they occur. To predict.

We have the notion of safety intelligence. There are Big Data projects that are gathering large quantities of aviation safety data. Today, what might be called prognostics continues to depend on expert judgement. That’s not negative. In fact, that augmented by objective safety intelligence is a route to the next step in maturity.

In my view, here’s the three categories that must be addressed now and, in the next decade.

One is a foundation stone of aviation safety work. It’s the capability and will to react in a timely manner to events. Not just accidents and serious incidents but any event that elevates aviation safety risks above acceptable levels.

Top operational risk that are likely to need immediate actions are those involving loss of control and those concerning runway incidents.

To take timely corrective action the results of investigation need to be readily available. As pointed out by the industry, across the globe, there’s much scope for improvement here. Timeliness matters.

My next category is that of systemic risks. System wide safety risks. People, organisations, processes, procedures, the human factor and human performance issues.

Much is being done to ensure the effective implementation of safety management systems (SMS). The four pillars of SMS have proven to work – safety policy, risk management, safety assurance and safety promotion.

The elimination or mitigation of risks is not an act that begins on one day and stops on the next. Digitation can help but there’s always the dangers of the needle in a haystack or even a problem sitting in plain sight.

What’s often weak is the communication of what’s discovered. Believable, understandable straightforward communication to decision makers is vital.

Thirdly, what’s ahead of us is an order of magnitude more complex than what’s gone before. And a rate of change that mindboggling.

I’m calling this emerging aviation safety risks. The question arises; are we ready for advanced leaps in technology? Hydrogen, hybrid propulsion, machine learning, quantum computing, complex airspace networks and robotics. Humans as executive manager whilst retaining control only in emergencies.

It’s a famous quote; data is the new oil. We are ushering in extremely large and complex datasets that will be essential to the workings of automated and autonomous systems. Could data be the new quicksand? This is a huge issue in dense airspace where crewed and uncrewed aircraft must share the airspace.

Another emerging aviation safety risks, that industry and regulators are starting to address is the fact that safety and security have become inseparable. In the past, these disciplines were addressed as silos. That’s no longer viable.

Another emerging aviation safety risk is that of the workforce. Aviation has attracted dedicated professionals who acquire experience and train to a high level of competence. A safety culture is embedded. In this respect the fundamentals of safety remain constant.

The rapid growth of technology is a two-edged sword. Now, there are many opportunities for future generations, but aviation may not be at the top of the list of choices. As it was in the past. There’s a serious aviation safety risk if investments are not made and people are not motivated and able to gain the competencies needed by a rapidly changing industry.

To sum up. Everything I’ve spoken of can only be addressed in partnerships. In the past, the aviation industry and its regulators have proven themselves to be imaginative, resilient and forward looking.

The challenges ahead, dare I say, are even greater. Levels of integration, interdependency and rapid technology adoption are off the charts. Yet, I believe we can continually improve global aviation safety. We can step up.

Public and Private Life

What’s public and what’s private? There was a mythical age of the past when the dividing line between these two was self-evident and sacrosanct. Wholy respected by every member of society. A time when an Englishman’s home was his castle. Anything that happened within it’s walls was not for prying eyes or journalistic speculation. Everyone knew their place.

Naturally, this is utter nonsense. At least described in the way I’ve put it. Times change. Those immortal two words. So, the line between what’s public and what’s private has wobbled around over the centuries. I’m not, as you might expect, saying that nothing has changed over time because a hell of a lot has changed. Now, there are factors that make the public life different from past decades. Themes run through the ages along with unyielding change.

It’s very much in the News now. The impression given is that the act of standing-up in public has risks that can be high. Not so much the traditional risks of humiliation, being ostracised or suffering abject failure but real risks to life, in a physical sense.

It would be ridiculous to say that these are more violent times. When I look out of my kitchen window, I am reminded of the English Civil War[1]. Father and son, brothers, uncles, and cousins fought on opposite sides with fatal consequences. The ruined castle on the hill to my North is a monument to that terrible bloody conflict. In the lifetime of my parents the bombs fell from the sky on innocent civilians in this land, as they do in Ukraine to this day.

The tendency to think that we are a much more civilised society in the 21^st Century is a liberal and progressive notion. We are better fed and read. There are greater comforts and the four horsemen of the apocalypse are kept at arm’s length. Not disappeared but kept in check. Although the recent experience of COVID did unsettle everyone for a while.

What we do cherish. I hope we cherish, in this country. Is the relative freedom of speech that allows debate to be conducted in public. I use the word relative because the absolutists, who have an anything goes attitude, are not what I mean. Fundamentalist often ride with the four horsemen. Words do matter.

I’m straying from my point. There’s great merit in protecting public life. In matters that are of fundamental importance individuals must be free to stand-up and say their piece. Stifling debate is like putting the heat on a pressure cooker without a safety valve.

I’ve always been struck by the civility of most people. That’s what I’ve found when knocking on doors during political campaigns of one form or another. There’s a core of decency at all levels of society. Now and then, that thread is broken. It does take a lot to paint a different picture. That’s where the proliferation of social media has changed the dynamic.

The printing press was not an evil invention. That didn’t stop it being used for evil ends. The same with social media. Printed media is subject to regulation. A system of regulation that has developed over decades. That doesn’t stop a wide range of views being expressed. The fertiliser of public life. Similar boundaries are set for broadcast media. This is civilisation.

To date, social media is the wild west. It’s become essential to public life. At the same time, it’s a grave danger to public life. When it’s used to stir-up passions that lead to violence the danger is self-evident. Social media is not sacrosanct. Regulation is essential.

[1] https://www.english-heritage.org.uk/learn/histories/the-english-civil-wars-history-and-stories/

Seasonal Changes

When summer is at its peak, winter is easily forgotten. The reverse is true too. When winter is at its peak summer is a million years away. That’s the experience we have here on the British Isles.

So, it is to live on a spinning planet with an incline. That variation in seasons is the clock by which we live. The slowly shifting path of the Sun as it appears to move with the seasons. Of course, the Sun doesn’t move relative to the Earth. It’s our planet’s inclined rotation that makes the difference. How that came about we will never know beyond some good theories.

I might say something that an expert will say is nonsense. Can you imagine Stonehenge being bult in a people who live on the Equator? A place where the Sun spends much of its time high in the sky. At our Northern latitude, its movements maybe more significant than any other fact.

I wonder if seasonal variations and their impact go wider than dictating the weather? The British Isles is a pace where we are attuned to variations. Rarely extreme variations.

The sentence I started with alludes to an almost schizophrenic attitude to wide ranging variations. Normal would be a summer-winter cycle between say; plus 25 and minus 5 on the Celsius scale. Going outside those moderate thermal bounds causes a lot of heads scratching and newspaper column inches.

Britan’s story is a full one. Look deeply and so much is seasonally dependent. Even wars were shaped by the passing of the seasons. Yet, overall, much is built assuming moderation. It’s one reason air-conditioning is a rarity in a domestic setting. Structures are more designed to keep the wind and rain out than other considerations.

Now, we are experiencing unusual heat. Records are falling by the wayside. Once lush green lawns are looking like brown dirt, concrete hard, parking spaces. That is unless their owners sprinkle oceans of water over them on a regular basis.

Here’s the odd bit. It’s more socially acceptable to save a lawn than it is to own an air conditioner. True, portable air conditioners and fans are flying of the shelves. However, the general attitude is that these are to be used in exceptional conditions. They will be returned to a corner of a garage, to gather dust, after just a few days use. Thus, considered to be a luxury.

A hosepipe doesn’t fit into this category. Commonplace. Certainly, no luxury. Watering equipment of infinite variety is prominently placed in every DIY store. When it happens, a hosepipe ban feels like an afront to personal freedom.

Our habits and behaviours are conditioned by an experience of decades of relative moderation. The idea of building houses with shutters or generous ventilation still fit the bill as being usual. Something done in other, hotter countries.

Our reaction to climate change is fascinating. Hardly surprising in that the normal human reaction to change should tell us a lot. A fair degree of denial is nothing unusual. Put aside those who react early, the inevitable inertia deep in our society takes its toll. Whatever attitude to the causes of climate change may prevail, adaptation is a wise course of action. That said, wisdom is often in short supply.

The builders of Stonehenge knew how to adapt to the seasons. Possibly taking note of their variations. Dare I suggest a modern henge as a symbol of our recognition of the need to adapt?

Restoring Regional Voices

He’s right in some respects. The new Prime Minister (PM) in waiting. The UK is highly centralised. Those Portland stone buildings in London encase power in a way that was necessary during war time. Served us well. Weirdly we’ve not been able to wean ourselves off this addiction to a concentration of power. Vested interests have made agreements that reinforce the route to disappointment. That’s the story of the last decades.

It’s got worse since Brexit too. This outdated imperialism, which puts a badly prepared elite in charge is the hallmark of Boris Johnson’s time as PM. What’s strange is that lots of voters bought that combination, even when it was destined to fail from day one. It’s a wee bit ironic that those who shouted about sovereignty during the referendum, ten years ago, are the once most guilty of disenfranchising the regions of the country. Promoting the idea that there’s a mythical national saviour who can ride in and restore past glory. Quite often these folk are male, prosperous and have a similar educational background.

During the UK’s membership of the European Union (EU) there was a distinct recognition of the regions. It was the basis for electing MEPs. It gave a voice to regional concerns and built relations between European regions. Those with shared challenges. It focused resources on specific regional needs.

However, the UK was so often constrained by those Portland stone buildings in London that fine words rarely turned into actions. The idea that Turin and Coventry or Liverpool and Cologne might have similar challenges was too much for classical imperial mentalities to make a connection. Politically too, in so many cases UK MPs and MEPs did not work well together.

Optimist as I am, the formula for future prosperity promoted by the PM in waiting is old-fashioned. Let’s take re-industrialisation. This is sold to people as a restoration of industrial landmarks from the days of mass employment in large factories. I’m not saying this isn’t needed. For some in-demand products, like wind turbines, electric vehicles and storage batteries mega factories will be needed. These will not provide mass employment in the old-fashioned way. Automation inevitably plays a growing part in production.

Whether we like it or not, a new industrial revolution is underway. The new oil is data. I’m echoing the British mathematician Clive Humby who is quoted as coming up with: “Data is the new oil.” Isn’t that classic. Back in 2006, when the iPhone arrived, it was a British mathematician who coined five words that summed up what was happening. 20-years have elapsed, but our political debate is still grounded in a mechanistic post-war philosophy.

As for Brexit’s high horse, namely “sovereignty” in respect of data we seemed to have seeded that to others. This is more of the Brexit illusion. If I was of a conspiratorial way of thinking, it’s as if diverting people’s attention has enabled powerful entities to control the future.

Now, Mr Prime Minister (PM) in waiting, take up your position at the lectern and say something that addresses the direction the windvane to the future is pointing.

I’m not saying cover the country with vast energy hungry data centres. No, where it’s happening, that’s really proving extremely unpopular. Instead make sure that the UK’s data infrastructure works as well at Lands Ends as it does in at the tip of the Shetlands. That education and training move to practical working with data rather than the theoretical. That no one is left behind.

Will Andy Burnham Lead a New Era?

It’s not so unbelievable. With the volatility of politics in the 2020s, that a leadership role flips from one person to the next in the blink of an eye. The man tipped to run the country has won one constituency in his hometown. Now, lots of people envisage him in the biggest of jobs, sweeping aside the wows of recent years.

One view of this change is that the decades of past allegiances, that we almost took for granted, have now dissolved. The way we view others in our society has become far more complex.

British comedy is littered with these stereotypes. Comic strip characters. Property owning, upper middle class, broadsheet newspaper reader equates to a Conservative. Open toed saddle, tweed jacket owning teacher who goes on improving camping holidays, a Liberal. Football supporting, factory worker, from a generation of factory workers almost certainly a Labour supporter with Socialist friends. At the margines, long retired colonel who inherited a large countryside mansion and estate may even be a Fascist. These animated cartoon images persist. What’s different is that there are dwindling numbers of them in society at large.

Initialled AB, Andy Burnham, comes to us as a smiling face. Down with the people in a way Sir Keir Starmer found incredibly hard. AB has charm and a warm accent that suggest a relaxed demeaner. He talks with enough wriggle room for a wide swath of people to think that he’s on their side. A good skill to have to be successful in politics. As it is, what he stands for when push comes to shove isn’t so easy to discern.

In know the spelling is different but it’s out there in social media land. The fictional Birnam Wood, a forest near Dunsinane Hill in William Shakespeare’s Macbeth. A place of prediction.

[That was one of the texts our teachers chose for us in my school days. Maybe they imagined troubled times ahead. Or wanted to warn us of power’s potential corrupting effect].

Three witches appeared to assure Macbeth that he was a winner. Only seemingly impossible events would defeat him. The message was critic. Bit like the Oracle of Delphi in the ancient Greek world. Nothing like recycling a good idea.

The British media’s prophecy is that Burnham will quickly step into the job of UK Prime Minister and restart the Labour Government with fresh vigour and new imagination. Not to mention better public communication. The constituency who thinks he’s a potential saviour is much bigger than the consistency who thinks he’s a devil in the making.

Will ambition and power’s potential corrupting effect take a hand. Or will the man with the name: “King of the North” have accumulated the knowledge and experience needed to shape history to the country’s benefit. A good sprinkle of luck will no doubt be needed too.

Despite what has passed in our post-Brexit land. UK PM’s coming and going, will Burnham be a force for good? I wouldn’t say past performance is any predictor at all. Making the buses run on time in Greater Manchester is a far cry from being a political party leader and UK PM.

I, as do so many, wish him a fair wind. Let’s hope he and his team can get to grips with the need to adapt, change and even be disruptive where it’s warranted. I hope he will not shy away from big decisions or be cowed by either his own side or the perfidious British right-wing media.

Reflecting on a Decade Post-Brexit: Lessons Learned

The clock has clicked. The pages of the calendar have flipped. Crises have been and gone. And in the UK’s political turmoil continues to exasperate one and all. A decade has passed since UK voters backed a proposal to leave the European Union (EU). The surprise result of the 23 June 2016 vote and the tiny majority for change still haunt the whole country.

Voters were told this and that would not happen, prosperity and a lowering of the cost-of-living were just around the corner. We now know that lie after lie piled-up. The mouths of the advocates of the vote to leave spouted pure undiluted nonsense. Yet, the noisy ones show no remorse or shame.

The pace of change can be overwhelming. Over the last decade the world has moved on with increasing speed. It’s self-evident that the 21^st Century is becoming an era of accelerating change. Sadly, in adopting the worst kind of Brexit transition the UK has become a lesser influence. A spectator in the world that has changed dramatically.

The first 10-year anniversary of the Brexit referendum is a time to take stock. To be mystified in reflection of the maddening goings on of the years past. I will not repeat pages and pages of analysis that others have provided. A simple conclusion is evident. The nation is poorer by a substantial amount.

I’m not in favour of endless navel gazing. We are where we are and it’s not a good place to be. What must be plotted in a way forward that increase prosperity, builds resilience and unseats defeatism. Political polarisation and the slide to appease the far-right is proving to be disastrous. The warnings of history should be heeded.

The future of the UK-EU relationship has the potential to be better one than ever before. At least we now know that there was good sound reasoning behind our past membership of the EU. Facing global challenges together is a far better way to face the future. Rapidly advancing technology, social upheaval and geopolitical shocks are not going away. The means by which we collectively respond to these challenges will be critical.

This is not a time to relitigate the Brexit referendum. Let the past be the past. We have learned from that past. It’s far better to ask what a better future looks like. Europe has common challenges. It’s an interconnected, interactive and interdependent region. We share a common cultural heritage.

Discussions over the future will never abate. But there’s a need of it to be put on solid and sound reasoning. Not by equating independence with isolation. Weve found that doesn’t work.

The UK and EU must forge a new closer relationship. It’s a win-win scenario.

Perceptions of Aviation Professionals

Let’s see what aviation stereotypes look like. There’s a wide selection of free images on-line. There’s a typical view of the crew of an aircraft. It didn’t take long to find one.

I can point out the obvious gender related features of such images, but what first caught my eye were the aircraft engines. They were way to far out on the wings. I suspect our good friend artificial intelligence may have generated such a colourful image.

Now let’s go for an Air Traffic Controller. The image that came up did have plus points. It did give an impression of what a controller’s job is about, at least as much as a simple graphic image can. I did expect to see a radar screen with dots on it as part of the image. A controller sitting at a desk with buttons to press and a window to look out of sums up the basic picture.

Next my on-line search was for an aircraft mechanic. Now, I started this search with low expectations of what might come up. The picture I got was of a hanger with two large aircraft to the left and right. Standing in the middle of this scene was a man in overalls moving an aircraft engine on a trolly. Proportions were off, in that the engine diameter was half the hight of the mechanic. Yes, the stereotype of a workingman with a spanner persists.

So, what have I discovered? Not much really. Or not much that didn’t fit the title of time-honoured stereotype. Images that pigeonhole jobs as done by people who dress in a particular way and are surrounded by the equipment of their trade. Roles, age, race and gender are fixed in a traditional pattern. I do draw the conclusion that, for all the daily hype, artificial intelligence is not going to do anything original when faced with a simple question about specific job.

This isn’t good. If the latest advance in technology is locked into classical and predicable images from the archives, then it’s not so advanced at all.

Why does this matter? Well, there’s a great deal of concern about where the next generation of professional in aviation are going to come from. Our wish to fly is affected by lots of social, environmental, and economic factors. Overall, the trend over coming decades is in one direction – up. More flights, more aircraft, and the need for more people to operate the system.

If the generic images of the professional roles in aviation are stuck in the past, then that’s not going to help. It’s off-putting. There are those young people who may find the traditional professional stereotypes appealing. My guess is the majority are unlikely to think this way.

In an on-line environment where artificial intelligence regurgitates the past this technology may drive us backwards. Not for one moment does the image of a workingman with a spanner need to be demoted. What needs a touch of imagination is a portrayal of images more akin to reality. A changing reality too.

[Yes, the title image is an appropriately prompted artificial intelligence generate one provided by WordPress].

Future Aircraft Systems

I read that there’s lesson to learn from the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS) experience that plagued Boeing. And led to fatalities. There’s a lot that has been written about the tragic saga. Much of great value.

It’s true. Aviation advances as the community learns lessons from incidents and accidents. Yes, there’s variability in the effectivity of this learning process. Occasions when oceans are written about one case and dozens of others are given an inappropriate light touch[1]. A trustworthy centralised repository of safety recommendations from published aviation accident reports is a useful tool. A point of reference. In the first months of the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) in Cologne, back in 2005, my team established such a database. It’s only possible to track the follow-up of key safety recommendation if there’s a well-maintained administrative system. Safety is often about the intelligent use of data.

Cockpit design, and the human factors issues involved, are without doubt one of the most critical parts of an aircraft. Society is not ready for fully autonomous passenger carrying aircraft. I believe it will happen, in decades to come but the horizon is way off. For certain types of vehicles, autonomy must be the solution given that flight control is beyond human capacities. Here’s I’m thinking mostly of hypersonic and space flight.

For a pilot to exercise responsibility for a flight there’s a need to have, at least, a basic understanding of what a machine is doing. In past times of strings and wires and clockwork instruments that understanding was ingrained knowledge gained from training and experience.

Future aircraft systems will not be easily described as functional blocks that perform well understood and dedicated functions. An autopilot, an autothrottle, autobraking, a flight management system, even an engine. Hybridisation is coming.

That does not mean a pilot must understand the inner working for a multicore microprocessor or complex software algorithm. Flight test pilots being the exception, in this case.

The design goal should always be to make safer systems. Engineering these aircraft systems is not a case of purely fitting together a set of Lego like components. The error made with the MCAS is one that ignored this fact. Interdependencies are manyfold.

Ideally, future aircraft systems, however capable and complex, should be describable, predicable, and ultimately trustworthy. These words sound so simple. One reason this is not simple is that very word – complex. The minute that there’s a massive number of possible combinations and permutations of conditions at may exit boundaries must be set. What’s a little more reassuring is that complexity if far from new in human experience[2].

Just to make the airspace of the future even more complex it’s no longer correct to think of an aircraft as alone and free to make any appropriate manoeuvre. Increasing connectivity, cybersecurity, and artificial intelligence (AI) all come into the mix.

To stay safe, pilots will have to appreciate how constraints and boundaries are managed. This information must be provided transparently and preferable with options.

[1] https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/opinions/the-safety-paradox-fewer-accidents-greater-responsibility/

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wheat_and_chessboard_problem

Wisdom vs. Agility

It’s ancient. This notion that as the years clock-up we accrue wisdom. At the same time a degree of mental agility is sacrificed. There may not be a lot of science in this conclusion. It’s a phenomenon well represented in several cultures are around the globe. Selectively in British culture as we’ve become cynical about wise old owls.

There are professions where a kind of guru status is acquired. There are other professions where world weary grey beards are dismissed as out-of-touch and irrelevant to the times. The medical profession heaps accolades on battle hardened consultants. In contrast, the teaching profession often kicks out expensive experienced staff for the later reason.

This makes reading the current modus-operandi difficult. Can I generalise about a transition from a state of dynamic ability to a serener period of more sober wisdom?

Clearly, not that everyone is the same. God forbid. There is certainly a myriad of cases where putting on the years has led to a distinct decline in wisdom. Without pointing out the obvious, this happens to the leaders of nations, as much as anyone else. Here’s my reflection for what it’s worth.

If I turn the clock back 20-years, then it’s immediately apparent to me that my capacity for tackling a hung variety of tasks, simultaneously, is not what it once was. I have clear memories of days being like a circus performer, spinning plates[1], moving from one to another like a star juggler. Using as much skill and mental agility as I could muster. I know, in my heart of hearts, that this is now beyond me.

By contrast, I’d like to think that my accumulation of experiences has distilled into a form of wisdom. It seems pompous to make too much of this natural process. I say natural because we are all blessed with the capacity of memory. To be able to recall when things worked and when they didn’t. The difference is whether we choose to be objective in that recollection.

In the pre-machine age this description of aging may fit the bill for a majority. As I have said, the phenomena are incorporated in long lived cultures. In fact, religion leans heavily on the role of the seasoned sage distributing their “wisdom” amongst the populous[2].

What I wonder is will this survive the machine age? If machine learning swallows up all the useable material from ages past, great and revolutionary thinkers, notable leaders and prominent artists, will it shape how we evolve?

There’s an argument about deskilling that suggest that the result of an unbelievably massive computing capability will result in dumber humans. I don’t want to go down that road. One reason is that it isn’t as if any field of knowledge is bounded (or ever will be). We don’t know all there is to know. There’s likely to be no boundary at all. Then the question becomes – can we cope with the inevitable complexity? Jury is out on that one.

[1] https://www.juggle.org/wolfgang-bartschelly/

[2] https://asiasociety.org/education/just-who-was-confucius-anyway

Navigating Change

It’s all too easy to say – it was different in my time. How things have gone downhill. There’s a boring refrain from me, and my baby boom generation, which laments a lost era. What we forget is that all of history is a lost era. Becoming history is a discomforting feeling.

I remember walking around the transport museum at Brooklands in Surrey. Look to one side and there was an aircraft cockpit display that was the latest tech in my days as a young design engineer. It was slightly worse than that in that the retired equipment, covered in dust, was one I worked on in the late 1980s. Sophisticated at the time. Now an item of curiosity.

This weekend, I stood under the last flying Concorde at Aerospace Bristol. Looking up the supersonic aircraft, it remains stunning, impressive, and futuristic. It’s a real testament to the British and French engineers who were so adventurous, creative, and foresighted in its design.

That said, in the end that era came down to money and politics. Just goes to show what the implications are of having made a robust international commitment and finding it impossible to backout. As a purely business adventure, a project like Concorde is difficult to justify. As a cultural icon and industrial marker laid down for all of history to appreciate, it’s momentous. It’s reasonable to say that the success modern-day AIRBUS has roots in this tremendous European collaboration.

Anyway, back to war and more day-to-day concerns. There’s no doubt that having some form of industrial strategy is better than not having one. The trouble is that UK Governments come and go and are incredibly fickle. So, a nice policy document with sound ideas can either spur change or slowly gather dust with equal measure.

Reflecting over the last 40-years and more, the UK has taken a large peace dividend. Defence spending has declined steadily under every political flag. This has led to a focus on fewer engineering projects. A concentration on fewer prestige assets whether in the air, at sea or on land. A gradual cutting of cloth to fit a lesser role in the world.

How do I write is without the predicable lament? It’s a matter of highlighting the downsides of the current position without lapsing into an archaic wish for a return to a bygone era.

One observation I would make here. If I pick up a British aviation magazine of the 1960/70s it’s clear that there’s a huge diversity of small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) making products that are as diverse as they are spread across the country. Yes, the large aerospace companies have consolidated so that there remains a handful of prominent names. A lot of the iconic British names have disappeared. Consigned to museums. Inward investment has meant that the titans of the past have been swallowed up by international businesses.

There’s a pattern here that is not uniquely British. I’d make the point that one of the most concerning weaknesses is the decline of the large ecosystem of SMEs. Or the precarious situation that is often their fate. These businesses are the smaller fish that swim around the bigger players. They have the capacity to be dynamic and innovative. Even if they are often under regarded and more vulnerable to economic shocks.

Central government can’t always solve problems. That said, they can, at least, take an interest and create an environment where such entrepreneurs can flourish. Reflecting over the last 40-years and more, governments have been immensely ineffective in this respect. Policy documents are great. Where the failing persists is going from words to effective actions.