Uncategorized – Page 17

Better Steps

WP_20170804_006 What is needed more than anything else now is a good strategy for backing out of Brexit. It would be ironic if those who criticised the lack of planning for Brexit didn’t have a plan to get out of it. A road map to turn the ship of State around would help to give confidence to the world.

In the mix are legal niceties, political realities and social upsets but none are insurmountable.

The first of these, legal means, maybe the easiest. Since there’s so little written to explain what Article 50 intended in terms of detailed process and procedures then invention is possible. Add to that the fact that those who came up with the original words have expressed the view that the mechanism is reversible. So, when the moment is right it’s a simple matter for the negotiators to close the books and walk away from the table.

A second factor, the politics, is difficult but day-by-day the whole Brexit road trip is becoming more and more unpopular in the UK. For a politician worth their salt there must be the sense that, to be on the winning side, the time is right to move away from the hard liners. To be part of the future it’s time to start making those speeches that spell out what comes next. Not to be reactive and wait for an almighty crisis but to get out ahead and describe a better future.

On the third point, the social element, the shift could get complicated. There is no doubt there would be a degree of revolt orchestrated by the diehard supporters of Brexit. Even if a significant majority clearly show a wish to drop Brexit a powerful, monied and noisy group would kick out. Unfortunately, that means some conflict may be unavoidable but it would be short lived and sporadic in its nature.

Weighing up the costs and benefits of the above, I believe there’s a clear case to drop Brexit before more damage is done. The ways and means are not so complicated and are achievable over a couple of years. How to make all this move forward? The excepted wisdom of the moment is that a second referendum is needed to test the public mood. Equally, a General Election could be the trigger for the change. Alternatively, a realignment of the political parties may be another way to take this step.

Let’s see a confident Britain in Europe and in the rest of the world and do it now.

Act togther?

WP_20170725_004 Farce, insanity and slapstick, they have it all. But what they have in spades is confusion. Keir Starmer says one thing then Jeremy Corbyn says something else. The Trade Unions mumble in the background. A chorus of different voices sound off in every different direction. Its near on impossible to figure out exactly what policy the British Labour Party has on Brexit. Just taking one part of the debate around the Single Market and within ten minutes you’ll be totally confused.

Since colourful metaphors seem to be the order of the day and trade is at the heart of many discussions, here’s a maritime one. Yes, a storm is raging and the Conservatives are the dangerous navigators who are pointing the ship of State towards the rocks but Labour are the wreckers on the beech who are luring the ship to its doom.

I have no care for the Labour Party but I do wish they would get their act together. They need to look in the mirror and ask themselves the question: what is it we stand for? It matters for future generations what happens over the next months. If the Government goes for the most extreme form of Brexit then the outcome will severely impact everyone. Now, it maybe that the Labour Party fully intends to continue to ally itself with the Conservatives. They are even receiving warm praise from UKIP. I call that insane but it’s their choice and they had better be clear about it. In such a case millions of progressive British people are being betrayed.

Don’t Carry On – Change

WP_20170725_001 One definition of “stupid” is to keep doing the same thing but, at the same time, expect a different outcome[1]. There’s a time when change is not just desirable but necessary without delay.

On the backfoot, the defensive stand being taken by Brexiters is now a simplistic yell of – stop being negative – be negative about climate change – be negative about media bias but don’t be negative about a failing pet political project. Social media is full to the brim with this chanting.

The insistence that everyone should be positive about the gloomy daily diet of Brexit news is repeated constantly. At the same time, it’s no real surprises that the latest official data on the UK economy shows bad news. This is a familiar story as there have been plenty of warnings about gathering storm clouds. Many have been prompted to take contingency measures or hunker down.

Now, the messengers are being targeted for sounding their warnings. Somehow speaking clearly, calmly and objectively is equated with being unpatriotic. The Brexiters formula is that, on all occasions, people should smile and be upbeat regardless of the impact of this self-imposed calamity. To not do so is to let the side down or to support a, so called, “enemy”. The wise know that the cold reality is that shutting our eyes to negative information doesn’t make it go away.

My response to this thoughtlessness is in aeronautical terms. If a warning system is telling us to take emergency actions then it’s imperative that it be taken. No delay. Now is the time to change. There are far too many who have ignored warnings and as a result are not here to tell the tale. Exit Brexit without delay.

[1] “Stupidity is doing same thing and expecting different results” said by Einstein.

What’s being lost?

WP_20170719_008 We do seem to be getting a lot of Brexit related announcements. There often of this flavour: “Great victory – things stay the same[1]”. Or “Success – something is not getting as bad as predicted”. This is most peculiar. Never has the status-quo been so advanced as a shining example of achievement.

The other strange phenomena are the; it was going to happen anyway but look how wonderful we are – we made it happen. It’s our great achievement. Passing off actions as their own, Government sidesteps the facts for the real propaganda value[2].

The problem is that a lot of people are swallowing this boloney hook-line-and-sinker. Ministers are putting their foot down all over the place to elegise about everyday continuity. I would not be surprised to read tomorrow’s headline as reading: “Sun rises again due to the popularity of Brexit. Minister says; predictions of Armageddon were misplaced (for now).”

I’m not a one for reading lots of business books but there are one or two on the shelf. By the way, we have an Austrian economist to blame for coining this phrase: Opportunity Costs. If a country, like ours, loses the opportunity to earn income, whereas it could have done so by making a different choice, we can call that income lost Opportunity Costs.

I wonder if anyone is doing the sums to add up the lost Opportunity Costs of Brexit. It’s not easy because the sums should include investments that weren’t made or businesses that didn’t start-up. That said, the tangible items, like; businesses that moved away or trade deals that will be exited should be easy to add up. I guess, the answer is a huge and growing number and one that Ministers can’t face. Now wonder this Conservative “magpie Government” must steal news from the everyday.

[1] BMW to continue to build cars in Oxford.

[2] EU action on unfair credit card fees.

Good and Bad

WP_20170719_010 There’s some good news. It’s not often that can be said in this rather peculiar time.

There’s some bad news too. So, let’s go with the bad news first. It occurs to me that an enormous amount has been written about Brexit but little of what’s written is getting any traction in turning around the ridiculous situation we find ourselves in. It’s assumed that the rift between IN or OUT, Remain or Leave, Pro or Anti is unbridgeable. However, day-after-day, people are leaping over that rift and regretting their vote to leave the European Union but, now, not much is changing. I want to add one more reason why people need to take that leap forward and reject Brexit. The reason comes in this shape and it has much to do with my experience with rules and regulations.

Whatever you do in life things go wrong. Accidents happen. Errors get made. Failure occurs. It really doesn’t matter if you come from the left, right or centre of politics. Stuff happens and one of our expectations is that Governments, wherever they are, will fix problem stuff. You might say; what the point of them if they don’t?

What’s concerning and dangerous about the current Brexit obsessed Government has hit us before. It’s the phenomena that is so easy to see in hindsight but difficult to see when it’s happening. It’s often called; groupthink. Laws get made, regulation get amended and decisions get taken in a way that doesn’t consider the impact. That’s where we are today and its really is bad news.

Next for the good news. I welcome Vince Cable as the leader of the Liberal Democrats in the UK. There’s a huge gaping gap right at the heart of British politics. A massive vacant spot to occupy. The right is in its fox hole. The left is up on the barricades. Nobody is addressing the clear majority of sane, sober and honest people who just want the best for their community and their Country. The good news is that there’s an opportunity to offer an alternative to the blind groupthink of the extremes of left and right. A positive, progressive internationalist centre ground Party will go far.

Daily Prompt: Denial

Most difficult amongst all our efforts is to try and see things as they really are. Sounds simple, doesn’t it? It’s not so simple. Often when a catastrophe occurs eye witnesses come up with the strangest of recollections of events. We process what we see in ways that use a baggage of assumptions and preconceptions. Seeing is just one sense and so as we mix all the sources of information that we have the picture can get sharper or more blurred. Either way we will fix this result as; our view.

Is this denial? Denial of reality. You get it; I’m channelling my inner Spock. Half Vulcan – half human. We are stuck in that world between objectivity, facts and logic and our imagination, emotions and feelings. I don’t want to deny either. Let’s just except, to see things as they really are needs a lot more effort than we often give it.

via Daily Prompt: Denial

Daily Prompt: Champion

Champion the Wonder Horse! Champion the Wonder Horse! I can hear that theme resonating in my ear. It was coming from a black and white TV set sitting in the corner of the front room. This is going back to the 60s in the farm house where I grew-up. Like a streak of lightnin’ flashin’ cross the sky. Can’t remember a single story or even what Champion looked like. Take that even further, we never had a horse on the farm in my time. Nevertheless, that song is as clear as a bell. The picture that goes with it of the room and the large stone fire place are well in focus. Strange tricks the mind plays.

via Daily Prompt: Champion

Business advantages

Since I left school we have been in Europe. Common Market to the European Union. Life as got progressively better. Fine we have had our gripes and there has been set backs but on average we are more prosperous, less likely to be wiped out in a nuclear war, crime has come down and the environment is much cleaner.

As a trading nation membership of the EU has helped us succeed and not hindered.

I’m traveling at the moment and so for amusement I looked for evidence in this room to back up my words. There’s a Korean TV in this American chain hotel room. I drove my Germany car to get here on time. My Swiss watch helped ensure that I did. My Chinese made smart phone helped too. My Next cotton jacket was made in China as was my Delsey back pack and my Marks and Spencer shirt and underpants. My Gap cotton khakis were made in Sri Lanka. Inside my back pack there’s my German made Braun shaver and toothpaste supplied by Unilever – who knows where that came from originally. The air conditioning in this room is made by Siemens. The MK plugs and sockets are British because it’s our electrical standard that requires the 3 square pins. However, my travel plug adapter claims to be Swiss designed. I know my Clarks shoes were not made in Somerset as they once were. At last, it’s nice to see that the two cups with the tea and coffee making gear have stamped on them “Made in England”. The tea is Ty-phoo from Merseyside. There’s one thing that I can say is wholly British and it’s the pound coins in my pocket. Maybe not wholly British because I expect that the metal was imported.

Surveying that lot I’d conclude that the single market is working well. As Europeans we have a great deal of choice. Now, I lament the passing of Britain being the workshop of the world as much as the next man. Wish as we might there isn’t going to be a return to the imperial days of the past. So what are the advocates of Brexit proposing? Are they going to make all of the above more expensive as we exit the single market? Are they proposing to eliminate all the German goods and replace them with cheaper ones from Asia? I have no idea. Here we are in Europe with a good deal, freedom to pick and choose and a huge diversity of products and services. I can’t see the sense in throwing all that business advantage away. The agreement on EU membership points all one way and that is to stay.

Paper & Doors

I remember a line from David Penhaligon: “If you’ve got something to say, put it on a piece of paper and post it through people’s letterboxes”. That’s what I’ve been doing. Even in the age mobile phones and social media the piece of paper still has a major role to play in elections. In amongst the pizza delivery services, window replacement companies and local car mechanics flyers, an election leaflet has a hard time. But it’s a game of numbers where a small percentage of people who pick it up can make all the difference. Going from doorstep to doorstep gives a quick snapshot of an area. Overgrown once cared for gardens or concrete drives with neatly kept shrubs. Fencing for growling dogs or sentinel cats eyeing up all comers. Prized possessions like a 70s American muscle car or a pile of scrap timber propped against a wall. The good, the bad and the ugly are all to be found on a quiet suburban street in a small English town.
Why do I do it? To get a good candidate elected – yes. The spin-off is the steps my watch clocks up which surely must keep me fitter or so I hope. There the natural curiosity to get to know a place too.
Bank Holiday Monday lunchtime we handed out leaflets in the High Street. This time our colourful material was in support of remaining in the European Union. Its surprising how many people still have to make up their minds which way to vote in June. Couples are often divided on the issue. The most argumentative guy I met was Polish. He has no vote in this referendum. Of those who said; no thank you or I want out, there was more 50 plus men. “What have they ever done for us?” was one remark. Even trying to answer this was met with blank disinterest.
Why do I do it? To get a positive outcome – yes. On top of that there is the satisfaction of action, even if it’s a small drop in the ocean. Human reactions are fascinating too. From the brisk rush past ignoring contact to the bright smile from a supporter.
Democracy will not crumble if the humble printed leaflet fades into history. However, today, this simplest form of communication is still one of the mainstays of political campaigning.

Upbeat message

We have known of the US president’s visit to the UK for some time. It certainly wasn’t a surprise. Thus, it’s strange to hear how prominent Brexiters have responded to the event. Having time to prepare a confident campaign could have assembled a factual and grounded defence of the position for leaving the European Union. Instead what has been presented by the likes of Johnson and Farage is the worst of the worst pub gossip. Innuendo, misrepresentation and prejudice were all the leave campaign had to offer. Barack Obama shows no signs of being anti-British. Contrast the Brexiters assertions with the warmth and upbeat messages in support of the UK’s position in Europe. It’s clear that the UK’s continuing global success is dependent upon playing a strong role in the EU. The momentum of the Remain campaign continues to grow as the days count down to the referendum.