How can we prevent organisational accidents?

Part 2

Make “challenging” better. It’s generally better to have more than one set of eyes on an issue.

The classical challenge is to perform an audit. To take a sample of the work being performed and check that its everything that it’s said to be. This can be done at any stage: design, development, test, production, and in-service. Unfortunately, audits can get bogged down in process, procedures, customs, and practice that get so heavy as to distract from the essences of the task.

There’s a focus on the tangible aspects of work too. How many reports? How many corrective actions? Show me the measurements. Nevertheless, well focused auditing is a powerful tool.

It would be wise not to discount the intangible benefits of an audit. Such activities provide a chance to view the more intangible aspects of work. Here’s a few anecdotes.

Often when being taken for an official guided tour around a design or production facility there time to look beyond what the hosts want you to see. I often found a moment to look at notice boards around a factory, or office and they gave a hint as to the culture in that organisation. Cartoons and jokes of good humour led me to put a “normal” tick in the box. But if they strayed into harsh lampooning of the management or the way of working then there was something to note.

Siting in a manager’s office being briefed as to the timetable for an audit it’s as well to take in the whole scene. All those certificates displayed on the wall. Were they pertinent? Were they there to show off? Or were they showing genuine pride in the achievements of the organisation?

Timetables for an audit are necessary but can be a menace if every second is filled. But an auditor should never be intimidated by a timetable. On occasion, I’ve walked past a pile of records only to turn back and say – and what about this one? Then being told we must hurry on. To which my reaction was to dig in and follow the trail.

It’s true that the environment has changed. Digitisation has made the random selection of a sample more difficult. Digital records lend themselves to more pre-prepared situations.

Mealtimes can be a revelation on organisational culture too. This doesn’t happen anymore, I’m sure. The factory canteen that serves alcohol is truly a thing of the past. However, an auditor being taken out for lunch is still commonplace. It’s possible to get moralistic about such invitations only to miss out on getting a sense of those intangibles that might help understanding.

Additionally, I will warn that there’s the small danger of vexatious challenge. It’s a rarity but obsessions can follow even the most capable of people around. There’s a risk too that focusing on one pet subject can mean gapping great holes are missed. Each subject needs to be taken proportional to its potential impact.

How can we prevent organisational accidents?

Reading the commentary, deep and wide, that has flowed from the saga of the certification and introduction to service of the Boeing 737 MAX there’s palpable frustration. A large volume of analysis and evidence is now in the public domain. It has taken a long time and the persistence of many good people to bring out the results of investigation to the fore.  Frustration stems from knowing that the factors involved in the MAX saga are not new or unique. They have been seen far too often in fatal accidents and serious incidents right across the globe.

One common reaction is to place all the blame on the corrupting effect of large amounts of money. The line “follow the money” became common usage as a result of the 1976 movie “All The President’s Men[1]” despite the theory that it came from elsewhere.

“Follow the money” is good advice for investigators whether they be journalists, air accident investigators or police detectives. It’s certainly one of the known motivators for people to circumvent or disregard rules and regulations.

I could go on to talk about corporate liability[2]. There’s often a distinct lack of capability or inclination to hold large corporations, and the individuals running them liable for gross negligence and unethical behaviours. Another problem with this is that this is the button to press after the event. Yes, strong corporate liability laws rigorously applied can have a deterrent effect. However, the calculation made by those people at the source of the problem is often that of slim likelihood of failure or getting caught or, as with banks during the financial crisis, being too big to fail.

Although all the lessons learned from the analysis of organisational accidents is a good route to prevention of future accidents, that just one part of the puzzle.

Another common reaction is to reach for the human factors’ textbooks. There’s absolutely no doubt that human action is at the root of the events discussed. It takes people, and groups of people to choose to do the wrong thing knowing of the risks they take. Indefensible actions done with the awareness of an organisation are more than just process or procedural failure.

I started writing with the assumption that organisational accidents are preventable and must be prevented. This is to say that zero accidents are achievable. Yet, organisational accidents keep happening and prevention keeps failing. All be it, relative to the volume of global activity, a rare occurrence in civil aviation.

Maybe it’s better to accept that the motivations of a minority of people are to act unethically for personal gain and to take unacceptable risks. The larger problem is the failure of a greater number of people to act when they become aware of that behaviour.

In the cockpit pilots are taught to challenge bad decisions. Maybe we need to teach people how to challenge effectively.


[1] The movie takes protagonists Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein through their quest to figure out the suspicious acts around US President Richrd Nixon.

[2] https://www.cps.gov.uk/legal-guidance/corporate-prosecutions

Regulatory Freedom

Not for the first time a Conservative Minister[1] under pressure was asked to defend Brexit and the answer they gave was: “regulatory freedom.” Sounds good, doesn’t it? But it isn’t often that an audience is given the opportunity to critically assess what it means. So, let’s explore what those two words mean in the context of Brexit. Naturally, it’s highly political given that the word “freedom” is used to imply that a freedom has been acquired that was once was denied.

There are two basic points that come to mind.

  • One: European Member States work together to make new laws and regulations. The UK was highly influential in shaping European policy, laws, and regulation. The UK Parliament once kept a close eye on the progress of the significant developments in Europe, and
  • Two: For all the time of the UK’s membership of the EU, most of our laws and regulations were made by the UK. Since the Member States hadn’t given the EU the competence to act of defence, crime, welfare, direct taxation, national security, and health, for example.

It is sad that Conservative Ministers continue to lie about these facts. Honestly, with 6-years under our belts since the referendum, you would think that a senior British politician would have no need to lie about such matters.

I expect Minister Jacob Rees-Moog[2] is, at this moment documenting the ways in which this myth can be perpetuated. What would be even sadder than sad is if the motivation to change British laws and regulations was just to be different for the sake of difference.

The UK Government has established a Brexit Opportunities Unit[3]. Again, with 6-years under our belts since the referendum, you would imagine that whatever opportunities there are they would be well known by now. Reading the published 4-page report on regulatory-reforms it is thin to say the least.

The face palm[4] I had when reading one line talking about reviewing restrictions on selling in pounds and ounces was a massive one. Did we really go though all that pain for something so trivial? Please don’t answer that question.


[1] https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m0014b4c/question-time-2022-10022022

[2] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jacob-reesmogg-what-is-the-brexit-opportunities-unit-b2010570.html

[3] https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/brexit-opportunities-regulatory-reforms

[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Facepalm

Aircraft Level View

The latest innovations in aircraft design are, without question, highly integrated systems. We have departed from the days when every aircraft system was a box. An autopilot, a display computer, a power controller may all sit in one cabinet of equipment. Each one interdependent upon the other.

The other day, I saw advertised as an antique a British P8 aircraft compass. Maybe, 80 years old, it was claimed to be still working. This bit of kit was fitted to the Spitfire, Hawker Hurricane and Mosquito. Truly, a discreet equipment. One basic function and independent of all other aircraft systems except cockpit lighting. Afterall, a compass isn’t much use if you cant see it.

One reflection of mine from times past is the real difficulty of getting people to take an aircraft level view. Some might say this is aerospace design history. It certainly was a major struggle in the mid-1990s. It was a message that was not always well received.

Without mentioning any names, I’d roll up at an aircraft manufacture and be confronted with a hanger sized office divided up into cubicles. Sound absorbing partition walls of shoulder hight stretching far into the distance. This is where the Scott Adams[1] got the idea for the Dilbert cartoons.

In one corner of the engineering building would be a venerable grey-haired gentleman who had spent his entire life working on toilet flush motors. At another corner would be a gaggle of whizz kids developing software specifications for the latest computing hardware.

Everything was the same placid light green with only a few signs to give identity to groups of people working together. Segregation and segmentation were a part of the process. Each functional group developed their skills to the highest degree in their chosen specialisation.

My role in all this was to sit in a rectangular meeting room receiving briefings from each technical team. The certification task had been divided up and everyone was doing their part. Certification plans for an autopilot, a display computer or a power controller were all competently presented. Preliminary safety assessments were dutifully described.

After a while it became all to clear to me that everyone was dedicated to their assignment but that communication between different teams was sketchy to say the least. So, questions like, where did you get that number from, when talking about a failure probability number taken from someone else’s analysis wasn’t always convincingly answered. As a result, I got to hammer on about the need to take an aircraft level view to the point of great irritation. It’s not that people didn’t want to hear the message. It was more that the means to look at interdependencies between aircraft systems was fragile and underdeveloped. We changed and progressively the challenge of integration was met.

Today, I sit and wonder if the new entrants in the aerospace world, rapidly putting together advanced new forms of air mobility, have taken on-board the lessons we learned in the 1990s. It’s not as easy to learn the above lessons unless the reason why is abundantly clear.


[1] https://www.scottadamssays.com/

Tea or Coffee

I’ll grab a newspaper and flick through the pages. I can almost guarantee in all the thousands of words use to describe the events of the week nowhere will you see the word “determinism”. Now, that shouldn’t surprise anyone. Or at least anyone who doesn’t spend their days in the systems engineering world. Yet, the basic idea of determinism is ingrained in everyday thinking.

Yesterday, I bought a new kettle. It works well. I can take cold fresh water from my kitchen tap, fill it to the two-cup line and press the button with confidence that within a couple of minutes I’ll have boiling water. Cause-and-effect are truly well connected. I pay my electricity bill and expect current to flow when the switch is thrown. I’d be really annoyed if my new kettle didn’t do what it said it would do on the box it was packaged in. My cup of tea is assured.

Now, let’s step into an imaginary future. Well, a future that not as imaginary as might first be thought. I’ll set aside my morning tea drinking habit and brew a coffee instead. I haven’t got one, but they are certainly being advertised. That’s a coffee machine that’s connected to the INTERNET[1]. It can be given voice commands to brew my favourite brew. It has an app where I can set-up my preferences. It’s a whizzy way to get an espresso.

I don’t say this function exists, only that as soon as the connection is made to an external service what happens next becomes just a little less predictable. A coffee machine with an integrated voice activation system will do as it’s told. At least we assume it will do as it’s told. Thus, cause-and-effect remain connected. Stand back. The door has now been opened. Let’s say, after I acquired the coffee maker the anxious manufacture changes the algorithm that runs the machine. They want me to drink the maximum number of their wonderful coffees but without going to the dark side.

Next time, I go for a smart espresso the machine talks back: “Are you sure? You’ve had 5 coffees already this afternoon.” I have no knowledge of, or control over the algorithm that’s coming up with this talk back. The question might be fair, sensible, and looking after my health but, in that moment, I have no ability to predict what the machine will do next. Will it let me carry on regardless? Or will it say: “No, you’ve had enough. Come back and talk to me in an hour.” The simple cause-and-effect relationship I have with my new kettle is no more. Without being warned, I’ve strayed into the world of non-determinism.

I think you can now appreciate the purpose of this short article. It’s to point out that our quaint classical deterministic world is going to go through a shakeup. Think of the scenario above for a car or an aeroplane. It’s not inevitably bad. In fact, non-deterministic systems offer huge potential benefits. My message is that we’d better be ready for all aspects of this transition.

I’ve made the contrast between either one or the other. In realty, there will be a fuzzy zone between what’s deterministic and what’s non-deterministic. The tea or coffee drinker may have a choice in different places at different times for different reasons.


[1] https://www.lavazza.co.uk/en/landing/voicy.html

Still work in progress

Has it really been 100 days since the final, final, final Brexit day? 

The UK left the European Union (EU) on 31 January 2020.  A Withdrawal Agreement (WA) that the UK Government agreed with the EU, established a transition period that came to an end the day this year started.  Now, a new EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) has been in force for 97 days. So, it’s not a bad time to have a go at writing a 100-day review.  It’s often a period of reflection that is used to assess a newly elected politician.  It gives an indication of the direction of travel. 

Last year, although it was a top priority of UK industry to stay in, the UK has left the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) based in Cologne.  So, there’s no official UK participation in the EASA activities by right and the UK is treated as any other 3rd Country.  EU law no longer applies to the UK. Much of what was previously applied has been swept up in new UK Legislation[1]

Regulation-wise, to figure out where we are now, it’s necessary to combine the officially published corresponding text of UK Legislation and EU Commission Regulations with the EASA Acceptable Means of Compliance and Guidance Material, including amendments.  Some smart people have done this work, but the challenge will be keeping the whole paperwork construction up to date. 

Informed commentators have often said that a Bilateral Aviation Safety Agreement (BASA) and a Comprehensive Air Transport Agreement (CATA) are needed between the EU and UK.  To some extent the TCA starts the ball rolling by calling for the establishment of a number of committees. 

On the basis that there’s far to much still in flux to discuss, I’ll bite off one key aviation related subject. 

Despite the massive impact of the COVID pandemic on international civil aviation there remains a demand for qualified engineers.  In many ways their roles as Airworthiness Inspectors or Licenced Aircraft Maintenance Engineers have become even more important than ever. Traditionally, there’s no doubt that the UK has been good at training aircraft engineering personnel. Students from all over the world have gained their licences in the UK.  It’s one of the most demanding professions in the world but their dedication to the highest standards keeps flying safe. 

Whilst the UK was a member of the EASA system a licence granted in the UK by an approved organisation was recognised throughout the EASA Member States and beyond.  One of the powerful arguments for continued participation in EASA was the avoidance of the duplication of approvals, certification, and licencing. Each duplication comes with a fee and time consuming paperwork.

The political decisions having been made and that’s exactly what we now have in place. Duplication. In fact, it’s worse than that because there’s asymmetry in the current situation. 

The UK CAA advises Part 66 licence holders to take action to minimise impact on their privileges.  There are several combinations and permutations that can be considered.  There’s a useful updated section of information for licensed engineers on the UK CAA website[2]

Engineers who continue to release EU-registered aircraft to service outside the UK will need to transfer their licence to the National Aviation Authority (NAA) of an EASA Member State. If an engineer works outside the EU and UK, on EU-registered aircraft, a UK Part-66 licence will no longer be valid. 

If an engineer has a non-UK Part-66 licence they will be able to continue to work on UK-registered aircraft for up to two years after the end of the transition period, unless your licence changes or expires (whichever occurs soonest).

There’s also an exemption for engineers who hold a EU Member State issued EASA Part-66 licence who only received
or changed their EASA licence after the departure of the UK from the EU.

All of this is high politics because a Part 66 licence, UK or EU is granted on the same technical basis. Yes, there’s potential of regulatory divergence or new ways of doing business in future. However, it’s difficult to understand what the justification for any divergence might be but the possibility exists.  And as avid Brexit supporters like to point out the UK is no longer subject to EU legislation.  That has no impact of the UK’s need to meet its international obligations. Both UK and EU need to be complient with the ICAO Convention.

There’s much work in progress. Now, is a moment when it all looks like a kitten as been playing with a large ball of wool that has rolled down a staircase.


[1] https://info.caa.co.uk/uk-regulations/

[2]https://info.caa.co.uk/uk-eu-transition/licensed-engineers/

Flight, Risk & Reflections 16.

Worldwide COVID-19 deaths have now topped 1.9 million[1].  Uncertainty continues to cripple civil aviation. The lack of joined-up working across the globe is disappointing to say the least.  Different actions and support package of varying degrees are confusing and inconsistent. Many self-inflicted obstacles have led to aircraft operators burning up cash at an alarming rate. No one denies that the spread of COVID-19 is one of the biggest challenges to face all types of transport systems, but governments have created as many problems as they have solved.  Serious concerns about new variants of COVID-19 are leading to additional travel restrictions[2].

Cargo operators and airports are stepping up to distribute the vaccines for COVID-19. Aviation will continue to play a vital role in that distribution[3].

The UK has now left the European Union (EU), and the transitional period has expired.  The UK Government will be publishing UK aviation law (including retained EU law) on the website www.legislation.gov.uk in due course. The new deal that has been struck has several appendixes but overall, it’s quite thin.

EU aviation regulations (hard law) are often accompanied by Acceptable Means of Compliance (AMC), Guidance Material (GM), Certification Specifications (CS) and other technical information (soft law). For the time being the versions of AMC, GM, CSs and other technical information in force on 31 December 2020, remain policy in the UK.  In time one would expect to see a British aviation publication system that maintains these as new national documents. 

Now, the prospect of divergence means that readers should check both national and EU sources to get a full picture of the relevant material for civil aviation in the European region.  At this moment there are no administrative procedures for the harmonisation of technical requirements between the UK and EU.  Fortunately, both parties start from a harmonised position. How long that will last is anyones guess.

The EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement announced on 24 December 2020 (TCA) is one hell of a lot better than the often threatened No-Deal outcome between the parties. However, it’s a long way from the comprehensive aviation and air transport agreement that industry and informed commentators, and indeed the EU-UK Political Declaration said was needed.  The TCA foresees cooperation between the EU and UK, but a lot remains to be done. There’s a great deal of committee work to come. It’s important to continue to stay alert for regulatory changes that are to come.


[1] From Johns Hopkins University

[2] https://www.oag.com/coronavirus-airline-schedules-data

[3] https://twitter.com/A4Europe/status/1346842821064589314?s=20

Flight, Risk & Reflections 15.

A large full moon graced the December sky early this morning. The local park was a picture of frosty ground, joggers and dog walkers, magpies and one or two wrens hopping around as the sun rose.  I looked up and slithers of cloud gave a reddish hew to the eastern sky. I remembered the farmer’s rhyme: Red in the morning, shepherds warning. Also, clear to me was the absence of aircraft streaking across the cold sky.  I’m located only a few miles north of London Gatwick airport.  Last December the same scene would have included aircraft contrails going left and right as morning flights arrived and departed London. 2020 is a year like no other.  In this pandemic year worldwide, deaths now approach 1.8 million. 

The UK left the European Union (EU) on 31 January 2020.  A Withdrawal Agreement that the UK Government agreed with the EU established a transition period that comes to an end in a couple of days.  I think many people are mighty relieved that the UK and EU reached an agreement in principle on Thursday 24 December 2020. This is about as last minute as it was possible to be in the long negotiations. 

All being well, a new agreement between the EU and UK should start from New Year’s Day, 1 January 2021.  This EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement includes obligations on both parties for air transport and aviation safety. Again, many people will be mighty relieved that these topics are addressed.  In all I’ve written in this blog there’s been much speculation about the road ahead. Now, for the first time in four and a half years we have some indication of what comes next.  Like any long story, it’s not all good and its not all bad. 

There are implications for all aspects of European aviation.  In air transport, UK aircraft operators will not have the freedoms of the past. They may need to restructure to be able to offer comprehensive services to the destinations currently flown. Low-cost operator Ryanair is implementing voting restrictions on company shares owned by non-EU nationals from New Year.

It’s good to see the emphasis on cooperation[1] on aviation safety.  New dedicated committees will look at how to work together in the future.  I hope they work at a technical level and renew cooperation rather than further politicising inter-institutional relationships.  Regulatory duplication and barriers need to be avoided.  Now, practical processes and procedures must make good on the promise of close cooperation. The need to ensure implementation of aviation safety rules and regulations has not diminished.

It’s interesting to note that each party to the agreement may request consultations at any time concerning the safety standards maintained and administered by the other party in areas relating to aeronautical facilities, flight crew, aircraft and the operation of aircraft.  This suggests conditions for dealing with the immediate outcome of aircraft accidents and serious incidents but it’s not explicit.  As I found in the early days of the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), from 2004 a lot depends on how the relevant legal texts are interpreted. One small sentence can mean much if the parties choose to make it so.  A deal maybe agreed but this is not done. This is the start of work that can build a successful aviation system.  With good will on both sides this can happen, but it will take a decade of effort. 


[1]The Trade and Cooperation Agreement establishes the following Specialised Committees:……

(b) The Specialised Committee on Air Transport;

(c) The Specialised Committee on Aviation Safety;

Flight, Risk & Reflections 14.

The end of the transitional period of the process of UK withdrawal from the European Union (EU) is just days away. I believe most people are looking for some light at the end of the tunnel. A tunnel that we have been in since mid-2016. Now, that light looks dim. Dim as a dull cold winter’s day.     

The EU has triggered Brexit No-Deal contingency plans[1].  These plans are to ensure basic services between the UK and the EU for 6 months in 2021. Then it’s anybody’s guess what will happen.

Flying is down to levels last seen in the 1970s. This maybe joy for those who protest at aviation’s environmental footprint. But, given that aviation will be vital to power the world out of the economic crisis brought on by the COVID-19 virus, this is not good news. 

Said it before but I’ll say it again, the triple blow of a Brexit No-Deal and COVID-19 and urgent need for action on Climate Change are going to mean hair shirts years ahead. There’s a great deal of bluff from politicians but the bills keep mounting up. We cannot ignore the oncoming trains. 

Worldwide COVID-19 deaths have now topped 1.6 million[2]

In this crisis, there’s no doubt that the UK has a superbly capable science community. Within that specialist community there are world renowned experts[3]. They work in a global context.  So, the persistent echo of nationalism in politicians COVID-19 response is saddening.  Recently politicians have spoken as if the task of public safety regulation was a competition.  This is sheer folly. It undermines trust.  Ensuring either vaccines or transport systems are safe is NOT a matter for national competition.  We all have vulnerabilities and safety is only assured when we are all safe. 

The triple whammy means the UK aerospace industry is under pressure and needs strategic support from the UK Government to sustain its high value jobs. So far, a deaf ear is all they offer businesses that create prosperity across the country. 

Also, on the horizon is that the UK will be under pressure to scrap European tariffs applied to Boeing imports imposed as a result of the international dispute between Boeing and AIRBUS. The subsidy dispute was between the EU and US and so lawyers are saying the UK should step aside. Sadly, this is the sort of situation that will make Europeans seriously question future aerospace investments in the UK. 


[1] https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2020/12/16/council-endorses-transport-contingency-measures-in-case-of-no-deal-brexit/#

[2] https://www.statnews.com/feature/coronavirus/covid-19-tracker/?utm_campaign=cv_landing

[3] https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000qdzd/panorama-the-race-for-a-vaccine

Flight, Risk & Reflections 13.

Last night, chatting about presentations and simple ways of making them better, I was reminded of: Ethos, Pathos, and Logos.  It’s ancient advice about how to persuade an audience of a point of view. The importance is to see a place for all three in a presentation. 

Looking at the day’s news, I see we are still on the brink of a deal. Negotiations drag on and on. Both EU and UK give the impression that they are stretching their negotiating mandates to try to come up with a good solution but time is ticking.

Outside of the negotiating room there remains the task of convincing different audiences that a deal is a good one. So, what of the classical three. In the UK, the media and politicians revel in Pathos. It’s almost as if the other two are consigned to be back seat drivers. For Ethos and Logos, objectivity is a must. Being honest means being factual. Arguing rationally means applying the facts.

Unfortunately, there are only a handful of places to go for that objectivity in the British media. So, it does make a difference to read the foreign media.  For some common sense, I recommend the thoughts of Julian King[1], the UK’s last European commissioner.  I agree that everybody stands to lose out with No-Deal.

This week we carry on with a multitude of unknowns. Only one thing is for sure. Life after 31st December will be different[2]

I do wish press articles would not say: “Otherwise, the U.K would have to strike individual agreements with EU countries to bypass these concerns, ……” Striking individual agreements with non-EU countries is what is happening. Striking individual agreements with EU countries will not happen. The reason for this is that for the major areas of interest the EU has competence[3].

It’s worth noting that the harmonisation of civil aviation requirements and procedures started a long time before the formation of European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA).


[1] https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/brexit-the-uk-and-eu-both-need-to-put-aside-emotion-and-cut-a-deal-1.4425580

[2] https://www.politico.eu/article/5-things-to-know-about-post-brexit-aviation-airlines-eu-transition-cargo-travel-passengers/

[3] https://europa.eu/european-union/topics/transport_en