Category: Regulation

Risks of Pruning Government

Everybody likes a good analogy. I don’t know if this one qualifies. We communicate by saying this thing is like this other thing. The first one being easier to understand than the one second. It’s a basic part of storytelling.

Who understands how government and its institutions grow? I’ve no doubt there are huge textbooks full of detailed analysis and complicated theories. Sitting on dusty library shelves. Written by knowledgeable and venerable academics.

I’m coming from a background that’s more practical. One of having mixed with and worked in bureaucratic structures built to serve a public good. Bureaucracies that have both traditional administrative and technical elements.

Here goes. Government, or rather the administrations, institutions and services are like a large oak tree. It’s kind of human pyramid in the sense that there’s a top and bottom. An upside-down tree minus the roots.

Oak trees are long lived. They have branches that are substantial so that they can carry a heavy load and suffer the battering of the wind and rain. Out on the furthest limbs they are young, spindly and vulnerable.

Today’s media is full of stories of what might come. There’s a new year in prospect. Across the Atlantic a new President is about to take-up office. Speculation is rife. One part of that speculation concerns the future of the large administration that is the federal state.

The Presidents favourite billionaire has ideas to take a chainsaw to the tree of administration. Generally speaking, a chainsaw isn’t the best tool for the job, but it certainly is scary. Maybe that’s the point. Keeping a huge, embedded administration on its toes.

My point, and I have one, which is more than I can say for Rory Stewart, a former minister, talking on the BBC this morning. My point is that pruning a tree requires the pruner to be competent. That’s having the attitude, skill and experience needed to make a good job of it.

Lopping off limbs of a working administration with the sole aim of saving money isn’t such a sound idea. Each branch has a purpose. It’s as well to have a comprehensive understanding of what that purpose is before the pruning starts. From that understanding can come a sound reason to prune.

Ideally, pruning should be good for the tree and good for everyone who depends upon it. Weak branches that suck-up energy even though their days are numbered should become firewood. Fledgling young branches that are heading out to explore new territory may need encouragement and support.

So, it is with government. There’s a lot of truth in Parkinson’s Law[1]. He knew a thing or two about bureaucracies. The clever bit is finding out where this phenomenon has taken off. Where the tree has grown way out of balance.

Will Musk be competent in pruning? Who knows. One thing is for sure. The potential for loping off a branch that is vital to health, wealth and happiness is all too real. Let’s watch and see.

[1] the law – “Work expands to fill the available time”

MH370 and MH17: A Decade On

The unthinkable happened in 2014. One major international airline suffered two catastrophic accidents. These tragic events ran contrary to all the trends in historic aircraft accident data.

In March, flight MH370 disappeared. In July, flight MH17 was shot down. In both cases there were no survivors from these international flights. This remains an unprecedented situation. It is a sobering consideration that such dreadful events were possible in a mature international framework of civil aircraft operations and regulation.

A decade on the pain of those who lost friends, family and colleagues in these tragedies is not diminished. Aviation should not lessen its attention to discovering more about what happened and putting measure in place to prevent reoccurrence of these events.

These two aviation catastrophes are different in respect of causal factors. One remains a mystery but, from what is known, has the hallmarks of an operational accident. The other is undoubtably an aggressive malicious act. Failings in the two elements of aviation safety and security, often viewed separately, are both capable of catastrophic outcomes.

Malaysia Airlines was a State-owned airline in the traditional model. There’s no reason to suppose that the airline harboured deficiencies that led directly to the two fatal accidents. In hindsight, the question is often asked: could both accidents have been avoided?

The extensive underwater search for MH370, in the southern Indian Ocean, resulted in no findings. However, floating debris from the fateful Boeing 777-200ER was discovered. Unlike what happened with Air France Flight 447 were the installed accident flight recorders were recovered from the deep ocean, there has been no such good fortune in respect of MH370.

Accident flight recorders are one of the primary tools for accident investigators. Installed recorders are built and tested to withstand extreme conditions. The reasonable assumption being that they will be found with any aircraft wreckage. The accident of MH370, is one where a deployable recorder may have been beneficial. That is one that ejects from an aircraft when it is subject to the high impact of the sea surface and then floats, possibly away from an accident site. There is a good case to be made for installing both deployable and installed recorders[1]. Particularly a case for long-range international overwater aircraft operations.

The facts surrounding the criminal act of shooting down of flight MH17 are well established. Sadly, in a troubled world it is impossible to say that such malicious acts will never occur again. What is to be done? Avoidance is by far the optimal approach. Commercial flying over warzones, where heavy weapons are known to be used, is extremely foolish. Now, it is good that much more flight planning attention is paid to understanding where conflict zones exist[2].

NOTE 1: On 07 March 2014 at 1642 UTC1 [0042 MYT, 08 March 2014], a Malaysia Airlines (MAS) Flight MH370, a Beijing-bound international scheduled passenger flight, departed from KL International Airport [KLIA] with a total of 239 persons on board (227 passengers and 12 crew). The aircraft was a Boeing 777-200ER, registered as 9M-MRO.

NOTE 2: On 17 July 2014, at 13:20 (15:20 CET) a Boeing 777-200 with the Malaysia Airlines nationality and registration mark 9M-MRD disappeared to the west of the TAMAK air navigation waypoint in Ukraine. All 298 persons on-bard lost their lives.

[1] https://flightsafety.org/files/DFRS_0.pdf

[2] https://www.easa.europa.eu/en/domains/air-operations/czibs

H2 Aircraft Design

Cards on the table. I’m a believer. Despite the immense technical challenges, Hydrogen is a viable fuel for future large civil aircraft. That said, operational service of such revolutionary aircraft isn’t going to happen in a hurry.

Reading the history, Concorde was an incredible test of the boundaries of what was possible and that was met, but it didn’t come easy. Breaking new ground is never easy. [A common saying that’s maybe open to challenge]. In aviation making step-changes happens every decade. What’s nearly always required is exceptional determination, almost beyond reason, large sums of money and special people.

Control systems – no big deal. Mechanical components – evolution possible. Turning a gaseous fuel into high-levels of propulsive thrust – can be done. Building a one-off technology proving research vehicle. It’s happening. At least for the light and commuter class of aircraft.

None of this is enough. Because the gap between an aircraft that can fly and an aircraft that can be produced in the thousands and go on to make an operational living and build an impressive safety and reliability reputation, that’s still a million miles off.

Today, there’s artist impressions of all sorts of different H2 aircraft configurations. It’s like people painted pictures of Mars with imaginary canals, long before anyone knew what the planet looked like in reality. Innovation starts with ideas and not all of them are sound.

As I expressed in my last article, crashworthiness must be given much consideration when speculating about future designs. It’s not always explicit in aircraft certification, cabin safety being the exception, but studying the history of accidents and incidents is essential. One of the successes of the authorities and industry working together is to take lessons learned seriously.

I remember looking at the pictures of the wreckage of Air France Flight 358, which crashed on landing in Toronto, Canada[1]. The fact that there were no fatalities from that accident is a testament to good operations and good design practices. The Airbus aircraft burned out but there was enough time for passengers and crew to get away.

My thought is what kind of H2 aircraft configurations would permit the same opportunity?

Considering this large aircraft accident, and others like it, then there’s a message as to where fuel tanks might best be placed. There’re some aircraft configurations that would have little hope of providing the opportunity for rapid evacuation of hundreds of people.

So, in my mind, don’t attached large pressurised cryogenic fuel tanks to the underbody structure of an aircraft fuselage. However robust the design and build of such fuel tanks they would be unlikely to survive as well as the cabin passenger seats, namely 9g[2]. That would not provide a good outcome post-accident.

Maybe, like aircraft engines sitting on pylons off the wings, that too is a good place for fuel tanks.

[1] https://asn.flightsafety.org/asndb/322361

[2] https://www.easa.europa.eu/sites/default/files/dfu/NPA%202013-20.pdf

Challenges of Hydrogen Fuel in Civil Aviation

This week has been a Hydrogen week. It’s great to learn more of the projects that are out there and the ambitions of those developing systems. Hydrogen is a live subject. Looking at the possible pathways for civil aviation to take there’s a myriad of choices. However, when it comes to the fuel for propulsion there are not so many potentials.

It’s surely the case that at some time in the future the use of fossil fuels to propel us across the skies will no longer be acceptable. Even if I’m talking to climate change sceptics the point must be made that fossil fuels are a limited resource. Not only that but the air quality around airports is a matter of concern.

It’s there in our basic education. Water is H2O. It’s that combination of Hydrogen and Oxygen that is essential to life on Earth. So, if we have a process that provides aircraft propulsion by using Hydrogen it should be a whole lot better for the environment than using Jet A1.

The problem is, and there’s always a problem, to carry enough Hydrogen it will need to be pressurised and in liquid form. That means extremely low temperatures, robust storage containers and extensive leak free plumbing.

Today, we have cars on the road that run on liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). It’s a novelty. It’s less harmful to the environment and can cost less. However, LPG systems need regular servicing. The point of mentioning this pressured gas in a transport system is that it has been integrated into regular everyday usage. That’s knowing that escape of even small quantities of the liquefied gas can give rise to large volumes of gas / air mixture and thus a considerable hazard[1].

Any analogy between the car and the aircraft can be forgotten. That said, one or two of the issues are similar. Yes, what happens when an escaped volume of gas / air mixture is ignited?

What scenarios would bring about conditions whereby a destructive explosion is possible?

Let’s start with the situations where aircraft accidents most often occur. Take-off and landing are those phases of flight. A surprising number of accident scenarios are survivable. The important part being to get an aircraft in trouble on the ground in such a way that an evacuation is possible. That can mean hitting the ground with a great deal of force[2].

Here’s the matter of concern. An aircraft with large cryogenic tanks and associated complex plumbing hits the ground at a force of many “g”. What then happens? Certainly, pressurised liquefied gas would escape. Being a very light gas, the uncontained Hydrogen would rise rapidly. However, trapped amounts of gas / air mixture would remain a hazard. Would that be ignited?

There are a lot of unknowns in my questions. Although there are unknowns, any post impact situation is likely to be very different from a situation with a conventionally fuelled aircraft.

Today’s, burn through requirements ensure that an external fuel fire is held back. Thereby ensuring enough time to evacuate. For a hydrogen aircraft ventilation may be essential to stop build-up of a gas / air mixture inside a fuselage. That means a whole different approach.

[1] https://youtu.be/AG4JwbK3-q0

[2] https://skybrary.aero/accidents-and-incidents/b772-london-heathrow-uk-2008

Societal Change and AI

Societal change is inevitable. It seems hack to analogise with reference to the printing press. Look what happened, an explosion of communication. Dominance of the book for centuries. Expanding literacy. Progressive shaping of society resulting in this era.

We are only where we are because we stand on the shoulders of the giants who went before[1]. Not just the giants. There is massive amount of human contribution that is never accounted. The unseen heroes and the occasionally rediscovered thinkers and doers.

Along the way of history those who battle the battle of glass half full or glass half empty chatter away. We are either in a glorious age or a minute away from Armageddon. Polar ends of our future, both stories have merit. Who has a crystal ball that works?

I’ve been aware of neural-networks and joked about Bayesian Belief Networks for at least two decades. Having been involved in the business of data analysis that’s no surprise. Even so the rapid advance of a multitude of different forms of artificial intelligence (AI) is a surprise.

Talking generally, we have this foolish mental picture of the world that everything is linear. Progression from one state to another takes proportionate steps forward. It’s a hangover from the analogue world which is where we were until the 1960s/70s.

This fetish for straight lines and normal curves is deeply embedded. It’s odd. Although a lot of rules in nature do have a linear form, one that Sir Isaac Newton would recognise, there’s far more that follows other rules.

In the last few weeks this fetish played out at a global scale. We are all treating climate change as if it’s a water clock. Drip, drip by drip the climate changes. A reaction to a progressive degradation. Yet, environmental reality might have a step change in degradation ahead.

In my view it’s right to try to vision ahead about the path AI technology might take. It’s right to consider more than progressive development and evolutionary change. Information systems have a habit of either falling into disuse or marching on at the pace of Moore’s law[2].

Another example. The math of Fourier transforms has been around a long time. Doing Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) in the 1970s required a couple of chunky cabinet full of power-hungry electronics. For the few, not the many. Today, every smart phone[3] in the world can crunch FFT algorithms. For the many, not the few.

Can we use a simple graphical representation to say where AI is going[4]? Will “intelligence” double every year or two? Well, I suspect that developments will go faster than a doubling. Like Moore’s law these conditions tend to become self-fulfilling. It’s a technological race.

[Why? To a machine there’s no sleep. To a machine there’s 86,400 seconds in a day. Everyone is meaningful and useful. To a complete and successful electronic machine only a tiny fraction of its operating time needs to be spent fixing itself. Or that might be one job left to us.]

POST: The impact of this high speed race makes interesting study U.S. Should Build Capacity to Rapidly Detect and Respond to AI Developments – New Report Identifies Workforce Challenges and Opportunities | National Academies

[1] Sir Isaac Newton, English scientist, “If I have seen further, it is by standing on the shoulders of giants.”

[2] https://www.asml.com/en/technology/all-about-microchips/moores-law

[3] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38320198

[4] https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-03679-6

Travelling Post-Brexit

Ever since Brexit, I’ve had to have my passport stamped in and out of European countries. It’s like a reversion to the days when I got my first British passport. That was back in the late 70s.  It has a frighteningly youthful picture. Occupation – student.

I’m not so phased by the coming changes to European Union (EU) border controls. Naturally, it’s worth asking if Britian has become a more dangerous nation since the time before Brexit when we enjoyed freedom of movement. It’s a pity we didn’t value that freedom a lot more. It was thrown away far too easily.

Today, the electronic border controls expect us to stare at a camera. A securely held, I hope, database is used to check a list of biometric numbers against my image. I guess that’s a sure-fire way of saying that Mr Blogs is indeed someone who looks very much like Mr Blogs. Facial recognition technology has come a long way.

The next steps in tightening-up controls will be fingerprinting[1]. Not in the manner of Sherlock Holmes, with an ink pad. No, in the digital age an ominous machine will scan our fingers and check its records to see that not only does Mr Blogs look as he should but that he’s got the essential characteristics of Mr Blogs.

Certainly, in this new regime British citizens will not be able to overstay in European countries. Ones travel records will be a lot more quantifiable and precise than stamping a piece of paper. That is assuming such digital border control machines will be relatively error free.

One of the benefits of Brexit is that it will be easier to track the movements of British criminals in and out of the EU. The reciprocal will not be true. It will not be easier for British authorities to track continental European criminals in an out of the UK.

Ah the luxury of being a Third Country. Longer ques. More uncertainty. Less privileges.

What’s more is the introduction of the new EU border control systems will be “phased[2]”. This change will not be one big bang. So, different ports and airports will be doing different things at different times. Now, it doesn’t take a genius to see that confusion is most likely.

Travelling in 2025 is going to be more than the usual adventure.

[1] https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/the-eu-entry-exit-system-and-eu-travel-authorisation-system/

[2] https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/eu-biometric-border-fingerprint-entry-delay-b2627645.html

Ethics of Medication

I don’t know about you but the whole idea of medicating people to increase the prosperity of society has a terrible echo of the worst kind of politics. Now, if we change the “p” word to protection of society, a policy of medication might make some reasonable sense. The COVID pandemic taught use that individual freedoms are not absolute. We know that allowing people to spread infection, whenever their personal beliefs, can kill other people. Reckless actions did exposed people to danger. Big name politicians did some dam stupid stuff just because they wanted to side with those who believed irrational, unscientific nonsense.

A UK Labour Health Minister saying that obese people would benefit from a jab so that they can get back to work makes me feel uneasy. It’s one thing to recognise that society has a problem with obesity but it’s entity another for the States to impose medication on specific groups of citizens. Expensive new medication that that.

I know it can be argued that the cost of obesity to the National Health Service (NHS) is high so there’s no zero cost answer. Having hammered down smoking deaths over decades of work it’s now obesity that’s the great societal challenge. The line between personal freedoms and social demands can be a fuzzy one.

The jab in question may have become fashionable as a weight loss aid[1]. That doesn’t justify a UK Minister, with all the power of the State, suggesting that overweight people be put on a regime of injections. And if they say “no” to the regime then be penalised in some vague manner.

It’s known that these new weight loss drugs have side effects. No everyone can take them without consequences. These drugs should only be used under medical supervision. That said, many people do take them without recourse to advice from a doctor.

To the Minister I say, don’t ague about the cost to the economy of obese people. Please ague for helping people to make weight management work for them as individuals. Obese people are not one amorphous mass of idle slobs who sit on the sofa all day. The Daily Mail characterisation of bludgeoning swarms of people burdening society with their indolent ways may chime with populists and the emerging Conservative Party. It’s no way for a Labour Minister to address a live challenge. 

National proposals to give unemployed obese people a jab to get them back to work has a ghastly ring to it. Yes, it’s not saying we (society) should send them down the salt mines but when the economic argument is the top one it does dehumanise the target audience.

Weight loss jabs may continue to have potential befits for many people. Let’s say that we are talking about health benefits, so that individuals can play their role in our society, whatever that role might be. State officials who attempt bring shame on people living with obesity, that’s just plain nasty.

[1] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c981044pgvyo

Illusion of Sovereignty

Desperate for something to say because their arguments have been shot down in flames, those who continue to support Brexit raise the subject of sovereignty. It’s as big a red herring as you are likely to find. That said, the notion of complete autonomy does have a resonance with one part of the political class.

One example of reality being different from political rhetoric is one I regularly see. I’m driving more than I have done in a while. Mostly, on the M4, M3 and M25 motorways. In this country some freight goes by rail, but the overwhelming amount of freight goes by road.

A sign of our times has been the construction of massive warehouses close to motorway junctions. Strategic non-motorway routes too. I do mean massive steel sheds. Counting the number of football fields covered by these structures doesn’t help. I’ll bet some of them can been seen from space.

Back to the British roads. 6-wheelers, 8-wheelers, 12-wheelers, big heavy trucks often showing the wear and tear from journeying great distances depend on the motorway system. A constant flow of heavy goods moves day and night.

Looking at the trucks, some have UK registration plates, some have UK registration plates thrown over their original plates. Most drive under the registration plates of a country of origin or wherever their commercial operations are based. Each plate tells a story. LT is Lithuania. PL is Poland. H is Hungary. NL is Netherlands. D is Germany.

So, every day we have tens of thousands of trucks maintained and operated to standards set by the European Union (EU) on our roads. They are left-hand-drive. Their speedometers are in kilometres per hour.

It occurs to me – what does “sovereignty” mean when everyday looks like a day driving?

For sure, no British inspector checks the condition of each one of these trucks on a regular basis. For sure, truck driver’s hours are only occasionally checked. For sure, maintenance records are locked away in a filing cabinet.

In the world of absolute sovereignty none of this should be allowed. In fact, much of the above-described transport operations are continuing as they did before Brexit but with extra paperwork attached. Extra costs.

It’s an observation. It’s easily made when stuck between a couple of heavy goods vehicles on the motorway. Pragmatism may have led to a blind eye being turned to reality. We shouldn’t delude ourselves that Brexit has delivered anything useful in this respect.

Fatal Aircraft Accident Investigation – Update

Given the tragic nature of VoePass Linhas Aéreas flight PTB2283, it is a fatal aircraft accident investigation of global importance. The Brazilian Aeronautical Accidents Investigation and Prevention Center (CENIPA) is investigating. CENIPA investigations are based on the international standard, namely ICAO Annex 13.

Both the Cockpit Voice Recorder (CVR) and the Flight Data Recorder (FDR) of the civil aircraft, registered PS-VPB, have been successfully replayed[1]. This is a task that required great care and diligence. The replay data now available to the investigators for detailed analysis, is of the utmost significance.

From the pictures available the external impact damage to the flight recorders is evident. What is important is that the crash protected memory module works as intended. This is solid-state digital memory that is packaged in a way that protects it from extreme conditions.

Finding from this accident investigation could have implications for the whole ATR aircraft fleet worldwide. It’s certain the authorities in Brazil will notify the aviation community if findings indicate corrective action that needs to be immediately taken.

Reports in the public domain indicate that the ATR aircraft had an ice detection system and that alerts could be heard in the cockpit during the flight[2]. Additionally, there is the indication that the crew acted in relation to those cockpit alerts.

[My apologies for a post where I suggested that there may not have been an ice detection sensor and alert on this class of turboprop aircraft. I was in error.].

This chain of events may suggest a simple set of explanations for the loss of control of the aircraft as it approached its destination. However, these matters are never simple, as most catastrophic aviation accidents are a combination of factors.

Even though the crew noted that there was icing, there is, as yet, no indication that the atmospheric conditions experienced by the aircraft in-flight were of a truly exceptional nature. The ATR aircraft is certified for specific icing conditions. There is training and procedures for the encounter of icing conditions.

It is pure speculation on my part, but I am reminded of an aviation accident of more than 40-years ago[3]. The conditions of the accident are different, but a factor may link the two. The last line of the NTSB report abstract says: “and the limited experience of the flight crew in jet transport winter conditions.” A small amount of ice contamination in the wrong place at the wrong time can have much more impact that might be immediately assumed.

[1] https://www2.fab.mil.br/cenipa/index.php/ultimas-noticias/1766-cenipa-extrai-com-exito-dados-dos-gravadores-de-voo-da-aeronave-ps-vpb

[2] https://www.flightglobal.com/safety/voepass-atr-crash-probe-analyses-crews-response-to-ice-alerts-before-fatal-flat-spin/159888.article

[3] https://www.ntsb.gov/news/press-releases/Pages/mr20220112b.aspx

Brazilian Air Crash

Two weeks have elapsed since the tragic loss of VoePass Linhas Aéreas flight PTB2283[1].

Reports are that the Brazilian air accident investigators[2] have successfully downloaded recordings from the aircraft Cockpit Voice Recorder (CVR) and Flight Data Recorder (FDR).

A detailed analysis of both recordings should provide a replay of the flight events on the fateful day. This means that any flight anomalies can be interpreted. Both actions of the crew and the response of the aircraft can be used to understand the sequence of events.

Those conducting the analysis will need to verify the past serviceability[3] of both recorders. It’s easy to assume that what’s presented in the recovered replay is what happened. However, that depends on the calibration of sensors and the correct functioning of the aircraft’s audio system.

CVRs and FDRs are primarily tools for the investigation of accidents and serious incidents by investigating authorities. Accident recordings can be a rich source of information. It’s not just the obvious contribution technical records make to an investigation. The CVR, via a cockpit area microphone picks up much more than just the speech of the crew and their communications with air traffic. Engines, propellers, aircraft warning systems, aerodynamic noise and the impact of structural failures all produce audio signatures.

I assume that the aircraft operator has a Flight Data Monitoring Program. Such a program can support continuing airworthiness and operational safety of an aircraft. It can be a vital part of a Safety Management System (SMS). Also, the regular analysis of flight data is one way of ensuring that the serviceability of the data acquisition system for an FDR is known.

A preliminary report on this fatal accident is expected in early September. It is up to CENIPA if the publish any transcript of the accident recordings.

VoePass, the airline in question, operates a regional network in Brazil. Not surprisingly it has now come under greater scrutiny by the Brazilian aviation regulator, Agência Nacional de Aviação Civil (ANAC).

It’s worth noting that the Brazilian civil aircraft fleet is one of the largest in the world. It’s a sizable country. Both ANAC and CENIPA are well experienced in addressing the aftermath of a major aviation accident. Expectations are high that the causes of this fatal accident will be fully understood. Appropriately then corrective action will be taken.

[1] https://asn.flightsafety.org/wikibase/409335

[2] Brazilian Aeronautical Accidents Investigation and Prevention Center (CENIPA)

[3] https://www.caa.co.uk/publication/download/12811