Travel – Page 21 – John Vincent

Flight, Risk & Reflections 3.

“It is the year of turmoil”

Summing up the year so far, upbeat positive words are hard to find. The crisis that has stretched across the globe has left everyone wondering what comes next? What will recovery look like? I’m trying to avoid a melodramatic tone because if we compare this global crisis with others faced by humanity, in the last hundred years, this is not so massive.

We, industry, Governments and travellers have in the last 60-years of the jet age have become accustomed to a progressively developing model of civil aviation that has increased the opportunity to travel. We recognised that the post-war model for aviation had to change. That was a major part of the ICAO General Assembly in Montreal last year. Global aviation must be made environmentally sustainable. More effort needed to be directed at long-term solutions to satisfy the wish to travel but reduce the environmental impact for flying.

Most large organisations had the event of a pandemic as part of the corporate risk assessment. Unfortunately, for many this was a tick in the box, a presentation and pat on the back job done. 2020’s events have thrown us into a completely different state from the one that was imagined.

Now, not without warning, but at great pace, the imperative has become to ensure the health and safety of passengers and workers in all aspects of civil aviation[1]. The COVID-19 crisis is forcing manufactures, operators and maintainers to rethink their business at every level. Jobs are being lost.

It’s often said that if you must change something big, change one thing at a time. People overwhelm themselves and start making mistakes if you change too many things all at once. Sadly, there’s the dying embers of a macho culture[2] in some parts of business and the political world. The results they produce are often extremely poor. Over promising and under delivering are fatal to long-term success.

In a World that made sense, both the UK and the EU would suspend the talks concerning their new relationship, get on with addressing COVID-19 and come back to the table when there was a better view of what the future might bring. Our reality is that a post-Brexit trade deal between UK and the EU seems unlikely at one stage, and then the next day it’s back on and the following day off again. News flits back and fore.

It remains to be seen if UK Prime Minister Johnson has a plan for a No-Deal Brexit. What’s happening is creating uncertainty and volatility day after day and making it hard for everyone. The devastating public health and economic impacts of COVID-19 plus all this turmoil is disastrous.

The UK’s political establishment do seem to be disconnected from reality.

[1] https://www.eurocontrol.int/sites/default/files/2020-09/covid19-eurocontrol-comprehensive-air-traffic-assessment-14092020.pdf

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Machismo

Flight, Risk & Reflections 2.

The 7th round of UK-EU negotiations has ended. So, here we are. Yet, another week goes by and the heal draggers win again. Instead of rapidly moving forwards towards a conclusion, to be the benefit of all, the situation remains with little progress being talk of[1]. Let’s remember it’s August. Only 4-months to wrap-up a legal text of a UK-EU agreement and to ensure that it’s accepted by the parties. The UK and 27 individual EU Countries must read, understand and ratify it.

The reflections coming from both sides at the table makes sorry reading[2][3]. What a depressing but predictable state of affairs. Reading a few of the comments people make on the current situation, I realise that the debate remains one of immense childishness, in some cases. This is not a game of cards. It’s not a football match. It’s not about victors and the vanquished. Every deal that was ever made, or ever will be made requires both parties to compromise.

Echoes of last year’s electioneering over an “oven ready deal” now look rather foolish. Where’s the UK Prime Minister? If there’s to be a No-Deal BREXIT outcome, then he will need to prepare the Country for it as soon as possible. If Brexit was originally about ending Freedom of Movement, it’s now about a whole lot more. The facts are that a No-Deal BREXIT outcome will make us all poorer.

Major changes are inevitable, with or without agreement on a new UK-EU relationship. Citizens, organisations and companies need to get ready for 2021.

But it’s still not too late for a sound deal. The deal that can be struck with the EU will be the most important the UK can make in this decade. If it doesn’t strike, at least a basic deal other partners will look on and wonder why? or, in the worst case, see an opportunity to take advantage. That’s not where anyone sane would want to be.

In a No-Deal scenario the UK will lose the benefits it has in the European Single Market in Aviation. As if the COVID-19 virus impact wasn’t enough. The aviation industry has taken a direct hit with an estimated one-third of the global fleet grounded at a time that’s normally high season for holidays.

The Coronavirus lock-down measures have pushed the UK into recession, Contraction in the economy has been significant but even the numbers leave much of the story unwritten. On top of this the UK quarantine on Countries, including France is like banging nails into the coffin of the British travel industry. A No-Deal BREXIT outcome will finish the job off.

[1] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53854730

[2] https://no10media.blog.gov.uk/2020/08/21/david-frosts-statement-following-the-conclusion-of-round-7-negotiations-with-the-eu/

[3] https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/statement_20_1511

Flying, Democracy and Safety 2.

gray airplane illustration — Photo by Alex Powell on Pexels.com

In a Century, our response to dangerous viruses has changed dramatically. The context in which a pandemic takes place has changed dramatically too. World population in 1918 was an estimated 1.8 billion[1]. Rather different from the current global population of about 7.5 billion.

Flying was in its infancy in 1918. In the inter-war period, the technology of flying was advancing rapidly. I’ve been listening to #TwentyDays, an online celebration of the 90th anniversary of aviator Amy Johnson’s flight from England to Australia[2]. She became the first solo woman to fly from Croydon to Darwin. It’s a fascinating travelogue that reminds us that the world pre-WWII was a completely different place.

It was expected that 2020 would set a record for the number of scheduled airline passengers to about 4.7 billion. Now, that is certainly impossible. Most of the world’s civil aircarft are parked. Again, the world is in flux.

The number of CORVID-19 deaths worldwide is 335,993 according to Johns Hopkins University. Yes, this is a long way from the global shock of the largest pandemic in history (1918-20) but it is changing everything.

Daily the news is saddening for those who have made their lives in aviation. Jobs are going in every sector but most particularly manufacturing and aircraft operations. UK company Rolls-Royce[3] plans to cut around 9,000 jobs in response to a drop off in demand. Aviation is completely consumed with the consequence of the CORVID-19 pandemic. British Airways’ owner, IAG, has made a decision to make 12,000 staff redundant.

The future of air travel has transformed in a matter of a few months. For anyone travelling in these challenging times the rules applicable are changing almost daily. In Europe, for most aviation organisations preparations for the end of the transition phase for the UK’s departure from the European Union (EU) have been put on the back burner.

Last Monday, the penultimate round of negotiations between the UK and the EU took place[4]. Officials and commentators on both sides are becoming increasingly doubtful a deal can be done in the time allotted[5]. Not only that but a strange exchange of letters has taken place between the two negotiating parties[6]. Both parties are defending their interests, so it seems strange that such negative grandstanding is taking place.

If looking for some good news, from the point of view of transparency, the “DRAFT WORKING TEXT FOR AN AGREEMENT ON CIVIL AVIATION SAFETY BETWEEN THE UNITED KINGDOM AND THE EUROPEAN UNION” are now made public. The UK’s draft negotiating document makes interesting reading.

[1] https://ourworldindata.org/spanish-flu-largest-influenza-pandemic-in-history

[2] http://amyjohnsonartstrust.co.uk/

[3] @RollsRoyce

[4] https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu/britain-eu-start-penultimate-round-of-talks-before-key-deadline-idUKKBN22N0VF

[5] https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/business-aviation/2020-05-07/europe-aviation-still-facing-uncertainty-brexit-talks-stall

[6]https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/886168/Letter_to_Michel_Barnier_19.05.20.pdf

Aviation, Brexit and COVID19 (ABC) 2

Collaboration is essential especially when action needs to be taken fast. Seeing members of the aerospace industries coming together to scale up the production of medical ventilators is heartening. It’s important to use all our expertise to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with those on the Coronavirus front line.

There are credible experts predicting that the forced shutdown will permanently reshape the aviation industry. Already the early retirement of large aircraft is taking place at several international airlines[1][2]. For example, most Boeing 747-400s are more than 20 years old and airlines are replacing them with more fuel-efficient modern types.

The coronavirus pandemic means airlines are drastically reducing their passenger flights. It’s likely this will cause a spate of order cancellations as costs are being cut. Hitting not only aircraft manufactures but maintenance, repair and overhaul providers too.

EasyJet is reported to be parking its 344 aircraft with an aim to removes significant cost. In the months it takes to contain the COVID19 virus the aviation industry will struggle to avoid permanent damage. It’s appealing to Governments for the waiving of air traffic control and regulatory charges for the whole of the year[3].

On Brexit, polls now show that most people in the UK want the Government to seek an extension to the transition period to focus on coronavirus recovery. Many experts believe there’s no prospect of Britain striking a Brexit trade deal with the EU without an extension to the transition period. So far, UK Ministers have simply refused to consider this common-sense approach. It has been said that the outcome of the first Brexit Joint Committee[4], held this week, was like watching two people looking down different ends of a telescope.

In other news, British Airways has suspended its operations at London Gatwick Airport[5]. In addition, the airport has announced that on 1 April it will close its North Terminal. That sobering for me, having last travelled through the North Terminal on 20 March.

[1] https://www.traveller.com.au/qantas-boeing-747-jumbo-jet-retirement-coronavirus-groundings-may-hasten-the-end-for-iconic-plane-h1n03y

[2] https://www.ifn.news/posts/klm-to-retire-last-boeing-747-in-april/

[3] https://news.sky.com/story/airlines-call-on-government-to-underwrite-industry-charges-11963586

[4] https://ec.europa.eu/info/european-union-and-united-kingdom-forging-new-partnership/eu-uk-withdrawal-agreement/meetings-eu-uk-joint-committee-under-withdrawal-agreement_en

[5] https://www.flightglobal.com/airlines/british-airways-suspends-flights-from-gatwick/137641.article

Brexit & Aviation 114

We are now in that strange no-man’s-land between Christmas and the New Year. Often a time when people are gathering their reflections on the year that’s passing. It’s a time to look ahead too. Look ahead with hope and optimism, in so far as one can.

There’s a couple of news stories floating around primed to stir-up new political conflicts as we burst into 2020. A “will they or won’t they?” series of speculations about the rules that the City of London may or may not have to follow post Brexit is running. Similar speculations could be applied to transport but that’s not at the top of the agenda just now. It seems crazy to state the obvious but leaving an organisation based on law will have legal consequences regardless of the sector.

Next year, talks will proceed along the lines of the Political Declaration that was drawn-up by the two parties, in October last. That document is non-binding but does set the tone for what the UK and EU want or wanted at the time. No doubt a red line for the EU27 Member States in the 2^nd phase of the Brexit negotiations will be a level playing field[1]. As I’ve pointed out before, in aviation technical regulations and standards are just as important as tariffs. In my last item, I poo pooed “no alignment” because my Mr Spock like logic says; no one aims for a lose-lose outcome. Do they?

Today, some right-wing activists are shouting; let’s get back to gallons, ounces and yards. Having won battles like the change of the British passport colour to blue[2], there’s a group that has been emboldened by Brexit. All British passports issued from early 2020 will be blue. National newspapers[3] print the cry; let’s have temperature reported in Fahrenheit and liquids in pints and fluid ounces. All this might be easily dismissed but it is as well to remember that a whole lot of things have been dismissed and then they came to be. Unfortunately, for us appeasing a populist political trend is part of the play book of the new UK Government. On 31 January the Department for Exiting the European Union (DExEU) will come to an end. The UK PM will next switch from phrases like: “Get Brexit Done” to “Taskforce Europe” to whitewash the fact that Brexit goes on and on. At the same time the UK Parliament will become no more than a bystander in what’s to come.

None of this retrograde thinking or smoke and mirrors is in the best interests of the Country. We are at a time when digitisation is transforming the heart of aerospace manufacturing. Aviation businesses are implementing significant changes to maximise opportunities in more integrated systems. Being side-tracked into British imperial theme park romanticism will mean a declining marketplace.

These Brexit stories will be a part of the popular news in the year ahead but so will be the US Presidential race. What happens in the US will have a global impact, especially if the incumbent is re-elected. That will be in the foreground while EU – UK talks will be in the background until a crunch decision time comes. There will be more than one of these crunch times throughout the year. Expect a predicable line to be taken as the Conservatives tighten their grip on power.

[1] https://www.epc.eu/en/publications/Ensuring-a-post-Brexit-level-playing-field~26c1e0

[2] https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/passport-design-changes/changes-to-the-design-of-british-passports

[3] https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/01/now-sovereign-nation-must-bring-back-imperial-units/

Brexit & Aviation 106

I’m waiting for the headline: The European Union (EU) has agreed to extend #Article50 a third time. This could delay any possible #Brexit until June 2020. Now, that sounds a lot saner than jumping off a cliff edge. Especially if Britain and Ireland say they can bridge the gap between their two positions. The Pound Sterling shot up as the markets took stock of the News that Prime Minister Johnson may not want to force us out of the EU on October 31st with No Deal. Nevertheless, there’s a hell of a lot of people who remain with no trust in this administration. The cold hard reality is that agreeing with Ireland most likely means the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP)[1] will be very unhappy. Then the prospect of getting any deal through the UK Parliament gets even harder.

Amongst the latest news from Ireland is a series of Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)[2] on Brexit from the Irish Aviation Authority (IAA). Post Brexit Ireland realises that it will need to develop new trade routes, especially those of air transport.

In the UK a “No-Deal Readiness Report” has just been released[3]. The part of the Government document on UK airlines highlights that Brexit means more bureaucracy and not less as some people may have claimed:

UK airlines operating to and from the EU will need to obtain a Part-TCO safety authorisation from the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) and an operating permit from each relevant Member State. The Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) website provides extensive and detailed information on the actions that airlines need to take on its website.
UK aviation personnel involved in the operation and maintenance of aircraft (pilots, cabin crew, engineers and air traffic controllers) will need to ensure they have obtained the relevant licences and safety authorisations from the CAA and EASA. The CAA website provides extensive and detailed information for the action that personnel and UK airlines need to take.
EU airlines will need to apply for an operating permit from the CAA, their website provides extensive and detailed information on the actions that EU airlines need to take.

Further on the document is quite clear that UK regulatory bodies will no longer be able to license products for the EU market. UK regulators will take on regulatory functions currently carried out by EU regulatory bodies, like the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) in Cologne. Further on in section E, the document talks about Aerospace goods. It doesn’t make pleasant reading. If the UK leaves without a deal, the EASA will no longer automatically recognise aviation safety certificates and approvals issued by the UK Civil Aviation Authority (CAA).

Aerospace companies continue to warn of “serious risk” in current plan, as the UK Government fails to reassure them about participation in EU agencies. It might be nice to think that the UK will continue to be a global aviation leader but in this new situation it will be in competition with its former partners. I suppose few who voted in 2016 realised any of this would be an outcome in 2020.

[1] The Democratic Unionist Party is a unionist political party in Northern Ireland favouring British identity

[2] https://www.iaa.ie/news/2019/10/02/iaa-publishes-brexit-faqs

[3] https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/no-deal-readiness-report

Aviation & Brexit 99

A public petition that says: Parliament must not be prorogued or dissolved unless and until the Article 50 period has been sufficiently extended or the UK’s intention to withdraw from the EU has been cancelled, stands at over 1.6 million signatures. It’s one indication of the level of public outrage that the UK Government has provoked by its latest actions.

Going back to the pre-referendum world, my years commuting back and forth between the UK and Germany had a few ups and downs. Snow shutting runways, an engine failure, delays and boring evenings spent in departure lounges at Gatwick and Cologne airports. That said, on average the experience was fine. I got to know the interior of an Airbus A319 was well as anyone. British Airways, EasyJet and Germanwings, now Eurowings use the aircraft. It’s a fine modern aircraft for flights of around an hour.

So, what will routine business travel be like if Brexit goes ahead after the end of October? Looking at what’s available, a November flight from London to Cologne can still be scoped up for under £100. But it’s emerging that short work assignments to European Union (EU) Member States are not going to be so easy as in the past[1].

For a start checking your passport is an absolute must. Gone are the days of jumping on a High-Speed Train with nothing more than a driver’s licence as ID. I often travelled between Cologne and Brussels having left my passport at home. Now, it’s essential to check you’ve got at least 6 months left on your passport from the start of any journey.

The EU has amended its regulations to allow visa-free travel for UK nationals for short stays of 90 days in any 180-day period. Another Brexit effect is that UK nationals will no longer be able to use EU lanes at airports and ports. Also, UK nationals may be asked about the duration, purpose of visit and their financial means when entering the EU[2].

There are official UK Government warnings about travel[3]. One of them concerns medical insurance. UK nationals visiting the EU need to have private medical insurance after 31 October. That may be difficult for those with pre-existing conditions who may be excluded from cover. My free European Health Insurance Card (EHIC) will not be much use after Halloween[4].

EU leaders are due to meet for a summit in Brussels on 17 – 18 October, just a fortnight before the UK’s current withdraw date. There’s a small chance that Brexit negotiations will bring about an agreement. It is only a small chance.

[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-13/advice-for-london-bankers-in-no-deal-brexit-refundable-tickets?

[2] Assuming a No Deal disorderly Brexit and continuing uncertainty

[3] https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1167436816405979137?s=20

[4] https://www.nhs.uk/using-the-nhs/healthcare-abroad/apply-for-a-free-ehic-european-health-insurance-card/#

Aviation & Brexit 81

It’s about a month ago since I last wrote. This has been a busy month. European Parliamentary elections took place on Thursday in the UK. The results of those elections will not be known until late on Sunday. A long process of local and regional counting will take up most of Sunday. What it will mean in the UK is still unclear but at least these were real votes in real ballot boxes. The outcome of which should be a sound indication of the current public mood.

The UK is now in the position where if it ratifies the existing EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement (WA) before 31 October 2019, an EU withdrawal will take place on the first day of the month following the completion of the ratification procedures. However, there are no signs that national ratification is on the cards. The UK’s two largest political parties have given-up on negotiations to come to a compromise on Brexit. This should be no surprise since a deal between the Conservatives and Labour would still have to pass the through a grid-locked House of Commons (HoC). A compromise involving the UK staying in a Customs Union (CU) is more than the hard core Brexit supporting Conservatives can accept. Now, as if the above wasn’t enough, the UK’s Prime Minister is stepping down. A starting gun has been fired on a that leadership race and it’s unlikely to be helpful to any potential political compromise.

The Brexit stasis continues to have a pressing and disruptive impact on the aviation and travel industries. Recently, the travel firm Thomas Cook reported a £1.5bn loss for the first half of the year[1]. Behind this were several factors but one of the bigger ones was potential customers putting off their summer holiday plans.

With Brexit delayed until later this year, the UK is exporting people. Now record numbers are applying for Irish passports[2] and that may give a boost to aviation in Ireland. As an indicator, I’ve had a conversation with a person prepared to relocate his businesses if Brexit remains unresolved.

In the technical regulation arena, the objective would seem to be to maintain as much continuity as possible[3]. Our international rules-based system assumes that Countries will work together to improve conductivity. But the situation remains fluid between the UK and EU, and there are still big questions to answer before we reach 1 November 2019.

The power-play going on between US and China is not a good background in which to continue with the uncertainty of Brexit. The UK should be defending multilateralism in this situation. A choice needs to be made since the UK’s aviation future need not shift from an influential rule-maker into a rule-taker. In this region, retaining membership of EU Agencies, like EASA remains a viable option.

Brexit is now in a go / no-go position. I’m more of the opinion that the project must be terminated and quickly. Even if it is not, close alignment with the EU still has major benefits. Is there the political vision in the UK to steer Brexit to a conclusion? It’s going to be well into July 2019 before we even have a hint as to the answer to that question. 3-years since the UK referendum and its only uncertainty that is certain.

[1] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48292318

[2] https://www.irishpost.com/news/how-to-get-irish-passport-166453

[3] https://ebace.aero/2019/news/latest-news/ebace2019-session-looks-at-impending-brexit/

Aviation & Brexit 80

It’s a week ago since I last wrote. It’s been the week of Easter. Politicians took time off and the news cycle found new stories to cover including exceptionally warm weather. In terms of progressing towards a solution to the Brexit crisis nothing much happened. Or at least nothing much happened in public.

Brexit continues to be a lose-lose proposition. On both sides of the Channel the impasse rattles on. All the energy absorbed by Brexit has weaken the economies of both the UK and the Continent. CNN[1] recently reported that its China that is the big winner from Europe’s Brexit chaos. That could well be the case, if not in the short-term then certainly in the longer term.

The European Parliament (EP) is now in recess until after the European elections at the end of May. The new EP will be in place in July. A new European Commission will be appointed.

This means UK holidaymakers will have to make a leap of faith if they are booking a beach holiday on the Continent this summer. Since Brexit is delayed, but that could be cut short the assumption may be made that conditions remain; business as usual at least for a bit longer.

Since the referendum was first called in 2015 the UK pound (£) has fallen from roughly 1.4 Euro to the £ to its current rate of around 1.15 Euro to the £. UK holidaymakers will need to take this into account when booking packages. In all cases measures to keep aircraft flying will be in place but there’s a strong likelihood that higher fares and less choice are on the cards.

As a highly regulated industry the importance of what happens to regulatory relations matters a great deal. Aviation cannot prosper without a mature and stable framework within which to operate safely. All the international evidence points in that one direction.

The UK played a major part in the formation of the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), but it would seem to be stepping aside. Regardless of what the UK does, EASA’s tasks within the EU-27 and its 4 associated countries will continue uninterrupted. The UK’s possible withdrawal puts it in a difficult position with diminished influence. Any withdrawal will significantly alter EASA’s cooperation with UK authorities. Even in this peculiar situation there may still be a re-think but just now nothing remains untouched.

[1] https://edition.cnn.com/2019/03/27/europe/china-europe-brexit-italy-bri-intl-gbr/index.html

Brexit & Aviation 77

The original Brexit transition date has gone by. Am I comfortable writing this on 1^st April? Well it’s past lunchtime so it would now be bad form to make a joke about the whole debacle.

It’s another day of UK Parliamentary “indicative” votes or should I say evening? We might imagine a compromise be sought and happiness reigns. However, every time I hear a UK politician talk about compromise, they usually mean others coming around to their point of view. The outcome of the “indicative” votes held by the House of Commons (HoC) on 27^th March were received with disappointment but at least they were an attempt to move forward. Regarding the future course of the Brexit the, UK Parliament is deeply divided on the big decisions, but voting patterns are starting to emerge.

Clearly, the international money markets think that a “soft” Brexit is the flavour of the day. UK’s currency hasn’t ducked and dived too much for a while. On the table is the proposal to remain in a Customs Union (CU) with the EU Member States. This doesn’t explicitly touch on civil aviation although it does concern the movement of goods and services. Implicit in this arrangement is close cooperation and collaborative working. So, it’s conceivable that might extend to such possibilities as participation in European Agencies.

Whilst compromise and consensus are desirable and nice to talk about, the tone of the continuing public debate isn’t getting any calmer. The BBC News Reality Check[1] team just published a reasonably worded assessment called “Brexit: Will flights be disrupted?”. Reading some of the comments to this item posted on Social Media indicates that we have a long way to go. The more polite ones are along these lines: I can’t believe people really think this is an issue, we few our planes before the EU and media starts scaremongering just before the Easter holidays. The knee-jerk reactions of vocal Brexit supporters are to deem anything that paints their project in a negative light as: bias and scaremongering, regardless of its veracity.

There’s a tendency to ignore the fact that the single market in aviation has transformed flying for British air travellers. There’s greater choice and competition and new routes across Europe and beyond. It’s impossible to go back to the 1970s. And who would want to go back to a State controlled industry without much concern for passengers? Ignoring the reality that the EU has delivered is twisted and downright foolish. After nearly 3-years no one knows what Brexit is or will become. It’s a truly shocking situation.

[1] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47225806