johnwvincent

The Art of Judging

Daily writing prompt

Are you a good judge of character?

A self-appraisal of one’s performance in this realm isn’t the best guild. That said, I don’t, on the whole, have regular coffee table conversation with friends and family about my own ability to judge others. Or at least that’s my experience.

It’s true we mark our own homework all the time. Building up mental pictures of other people. Framing them with good or bad qualities. It’s an internalised soap opera. This on-going series can be populated with stereotypes. Although, I try my very best to be fair and objective.

I’ll turn to Burns for a moment: “O wad some Pow’r the giftie gie us/To see ourselves as others see us.[1]” Burns says we need to start with seeing ourselves as others see us. Then, knowing ourselves, moving on we can try to see others as they really are. That path might be easier.

What’s simplest to recollect are personal judgement failures. That’s when I’ve got my judgement wrong or partially wrong. Case in point is were an individual’s intelligence was notable, but their social skills turned out to lamentable. I gave them far too much credit for thoughtfulness and wisdom. Turned out they completely lacked.

Am I a good judge of character? In this, I can’t be too poor. Surviving this long says something.

[1] https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/guides/z7n3jhv/revision/6

Risks of Pruning Government

Everybody likes a good analogy. I don’t know if this one qualifies. We communicate by saying this thing is like this other thing. The first one being easier to understand than the one second. It’s a basic part of storytelling.

Who understands how government and its institutions grow? I’ve no doubt there are huge textbooks full of detailed analysis and complicated theories. Sitting on dusty library shelves. Written by knowledgeable and venerable academics.

I’m coming from a background that’s more practical. One of having mixed with and worked in bureaucratic structures built to serve a public good. Bureaucracies that have both traditional administrative and technical elements.

Here goes. Government, or rather the administrations, institutions and services are like a large oak tree. It’s kind of human pyramid in the sense that there’s a top and bottom. An upside-down tree minus the roots.

Oak trees are long lived. They have branches that are substantial so that they can carry a heavy load and suffer the battering of the wind and rain. Out on the furthest limbs they are young, spindly and vulnerable.

Today’s media is full of stories of what might come. There’s a new year in prospect. Across the Atlantic a new President is about to take-up office. Speculation is rife. One part of that speculation concerns the future of the large administration that is the federal state.

The Presidents favourite billionaire has ideas to take a chainsaw to the tree of administration. Generally speaking, a chainsaw isn’t the best tool for the job, but it certainly is scary. Maybe that’s the point. Keeping a huge, embedded administration on its toes.

My point, and I have one, which is more than I can say for Rory Stewart, a former minister, talking on the BBC this morning. My point is that pruning a tree requires the pruner to be competent. That’s having the attitude, skill and experience needed to make a good job of it.

Lopping off limbs of a working administration with the sole aim of saving money isn’t such a sound idea. Each branch has a purpose. It’s as well to have a comprehensive understanding of what that purpose is before the pruning starts. From that understanding can come a sound reason to prune.

Ideally, pruning should be good for the tree and good for everyone who depends upon it. Weak branches that suck-up energy even though their days are numbered should become firewood. Fledgling young branches that are heading out to explore new territory may need encouragement and support.

So, it is with government. There’s a lot of truth in Parkinson’s Law[1]. He knew a thing or two about bureaucracies. The clever bit is finding out where this phenomenon has taken off. Where the tree has grown way out of balance.

Will Musk be competent in pruning? Who knows. One thing is for sure. The potential for loping off a branch that is vital to health, wealth and happiness is all too real. Let’s watch and see.

[1] the law – “Work expands to fill the available time”

MH370 and MH17: A Decade On

The unthinkable happened in 2014. One major international airline suffered two catastrophic accidents. These tragic events ran contrary to all the trends in historic aircraft accident data.

In March, flight MH370 disappeared. In July, flight MH17 was shot down. In both cases there were no survivors from these international flights. This remains an unprecedented situation. It is a sobering consideration that such dreadful events were possible in a mature international framework of civil aircraft operations and regulation.

A decade on the pain of those who lost friends, family and colleagues in these tragedies is not diminished. Aviation should not lessen its attention to discovering more about what happened and putting measure in place to prevent reoccurrence of these events.

These two aviation catastrophes are different in respect of causal factors. One remains a mystery but, from what is known, has the hallmarks of an operational accident. The other is undoubtably an aggressive malicious act. Failings in the two elements of aviation safety and security, often viewed separately, are both capable of catastrophic outcomes.

Malaysia Airlines was a State-owned airline in the traditional model. There’s no reason to suppose that the airline harboured deficiencies that led directly to the two fatal accidents. In hindsight, the question is often asked: could both accidents have been avoided?

The extensive underwater search for MH370, in the southern Indian Ocean, resulted in no findings. However, floating debris from the fateful Boeing 777-200ER was discovered. Unlike what happened with Air France Flight 447 were the installed accident flight recorders were recovered from the deep ocean, there has been no such good fortune in respect of MH370.

Accident flight recorders are one of the primary tools for accident investigators. Installed recorders are built and tested to withstand extreme conditions. The reasonable assumption being that they will be found with any aircraft wreckage. The accident of MH370, is one where a deployable recorder may have been beneficial. That is one that ejects from an aircraft when it is subject to the high impact of the sea surface and then floats, possibly away from an accident site. There is a good case to be made for installing both deployable and installed recorders[1]. Particularly a case for long-range international overwater aircraft operations.

The facts surrounding the criminal act of shooting down of flight MH17 are well established. Sadly, in a troubled world it is impossible to say that such malicious acts will never occur again. What is to be done? Avoidance is by far the optimal approach. Commercial flying over warzones, where heavy weapons are known to be used, is extremely foolish. Now, it is good that much more flight planning attention is paid to understanding where conflict zones exist[2].

NOTE 1: On 07 March 2014 at 1642 UTC1 [0042 MYT, 08 March 2014], a Malaysia Airlines (MAS) Flight MH370, a Beijing-bound international scheduled passenger flight, departed from KL International Airport [KLIA] with a total of 239 persons on board (227 passengers and 12 crew). The aircraft was a Boeing 777-200ER, registered as 9M-MRO.

NOTE 2: On 17 July 2014, at 13:20 (15:20 CET) a Boeing 777-200 with the Malaysia Airlines nationality and registration mark 9M-MRD disappeared to the west of the TAMAK air navigation waypoint in Ukraine. All 298 persons on-bard lost their lives.

[1] https://flightsafety.org/files/DFRS_0.pdf

[2] https://www.easa.europa.eu/en/domains/air-operations/czibs

Level Playing Field

The back-office work of campaigning does take advantage of a lot of volunteering. That’s my experience. Giving time and energy for free and seeking to advance a worthwhile cause.

It would be nice if all political parties in this country where wholly supported by a membership that is both engaged in activities and willing to put their hands in their pockets, now and then. The reality is that, of all the eligible voters in this country, only a small fraction of them is committed enough to be a member of a recognised political party.

Even with a strong membership and a well-motivated bunch of volunteers, life is hard going unless there is a reasonable sized war chest to support campaigning work.

Come election time the range and breadth of communications that is necessary to be a competitive candidate is considerable. Thus, it is no surprise that history can turn on who has the most resources. That doesn’t always work but without a spending capacity rivals have most of the advantages.

Politicians seek the patronage of the wealthy as a pathway to power. We can remain pure and get engaged in arguments both ethical and moral as to the impact of patronage. Or we can accept that it is inevitable and ensure that strict rules exist to create a reasonably level playing field for all candidates. Since we can no more stop influence from flowing from one person to another than we can freeze gravity then a democratic society cannot must not have woolly rules on these matters.

Talk now is about financial donations that originate from abroad. That is when a wealthy person wishes to funnel money into a political party in a country other than the one of their citizenship. No prizes for guessing who or what this is about.

Now, I could say only UK citizens should be allowed to donate to UK political parties or organisations. Foreigners should be banned from involvement in national democratic processes. Trouble is that this subject is not so cut and dry as it might first seem.

Those with dual citizenships may wish to contribute and participate. That sounds reasonable. Those with notable family ties may wish to contribute and participate. Certainly, there are reasonable cases to consider. What’s interesting here is the legitimacy of the interest and that it is of a “friendly” nature.

I’d like to go back to the mater of the level playing field. If a candidate meets the criteria set down for a given election, then the battle should be over achievements, ideas and policies and not over the size of bank balances. Financial donors should not be able to exert undue influence by throwing money at a campaign. That’s where there is a strong need for strict financial limits on donations or any form of beneficial contribution that comes from abroad.

POST: One subject that Australian’s are looking at:

Eight things you need to know about the Government’s plan to change Australian elections

Every second counts

Daily writing prompt

Is your life today what you pictured a year ago?

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Ho hum. The billions of neural pathways sitting in my head were in a very different state more than 30 million seconds ago. I mean they are changing all the time. They are not sluggish either. Picturing life in the next week is challenging enough.

Even so, I’ll climb down from my hyperbole and answer as the questioner intended. The answer is “no” and “yes”. For fate turns as a penny spins. At any moment, that fair coin is unpredictable.

Last year, it was likely that a major house move would go through as planned. The move wasn’t our first choice. Then by chance, sitting in a busy coffee shop scrolling my phone, there it was to my amazement. An ad for the house that we’d tried to buy twice but each time the arrangements has fallen through. A quick change of priorities, taking a risk, we dropped the on-going purchase and started a third go at the first house we both wanted.

A year has passed. Almost. That impulse to change was the right one. Here we are. Where we want to be. Thank you, neurons.

Revitalising Manufacturing

Yes, it’s good to have good trading relations with other countries. With a degree of pragmatism – as many as possible. Naturally, there are lines drawn in cases where countries share little of the UK’s values or are dictator run aggressors. Counting the hundreds of sovereign countries there are around the globe, a majority are friendly and mostly interested in mutual wellbeing.

However, post-2016[1] we are still living in strange times in the UK. In the same breath as some people talk of sovereignty and surrender, they say an extremely wealthy man in the US can solve all the UK’s problems. This nonsense defies any kind of logic.

There’s a peculiar celebration of the UK joining the Asia-Pacific Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) bloc. As if we didn’t have a huge trading block on our immediate doorstep. Joining one that offers a tiny gain overtime whilst leaving the other has cost a massive economic hit. The one thousands of miles away is significantly culturally different but the one next door is one where we share a common history.

I learn that there’s no point even thinking that logic has any influence on a Brexit supporter. Non whatsoever. Their view of the world comes from some lost imperial age.

Sadly, Brexit talk is only mumbled in darkened corners. That whopping great elephant in the room continues to get ignored. Even the UK’s new Labour Government is carrying on as if there were the former Conservative bunglers. There’s some woolly talk of reconciliation. There’s a lot of right-wing scaremongering. Practically, not a lot is changing.

In real terms, both UK exports and imports of goods are lower than in 2016, having shrunk by 1% and 2%, respectively[2]. Which is crazy given the new economic horizons. Especially in the switch to the need for more environmentally responsible goods. We should be modernising and strengthening UK design and manufacturing. Not just a bit but putting a rocket under both. Half hearted nice words by minor Ministers don’t cut it.

International trade fantasies will not build a stronger domestic economy and that illusive positive growth that’s often talked about in political speeches. With the coming of highly advanced computing, like artificial intelligence, countries with predominantly service based economies are gong to struggle. Basic service orientated jobs are going to get more automated. Like the traditional factories Henry Ford would have recognised, office complexes are hollowing out.

At least the new Labour Government isn’t pushing wholesale reopening coal mines or returning to a dependency on North Sea oil rigs. That said, I’m unsure what their attitude and policy is to rock fracking and imported gas supplies.

To make real economic progress we (UK) must make Brexit history. With our colleagues in Europe, we can be an innovation powerhouse. Making home grown products for the world markets of the future. Not languishing in a tepid imperial past or tugging at the shirt tails of some mega weird pugilist.

[1] UK referendum result: Of those who voted, 51.89% voted to leave the EU (Leave), and 48.11% voted to remain a member of the EU (Remain).

[2] https://personal.lse.ac.uk/sampsont/BrexitUKTrade.pdf

Keep going

Daily writing prompt

What is something others do that sparks your admiration?

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Genuine commitment to a good cause. There are a lot of good works out there that are like the task of Sisyphus. That’s the poor guy in Greek mythology who was condemned to push a rock up a mountain. When he got near the top the rock rolled back down the mountain, and then he had to start all over again. Never-ending.

I’ve great admiration for those who can keep the positivity going whatever (almost) the mountain throws at them day after day. Can keep smiling. Can be kind and generous and not consumed by resentment despite their less than glamorous struggle.

They are often content to heap praise on others without ever expecting any to come their way. In our modern culture of celebrity and voyeurism this is might be viewed as absurdity ridiculous. Nevertheless, these virtually Saint like people do exist. Often for a phase of their lives, having come to this way of living acknowledging that others suffer greater hardships than themselves. Or with a simple sense that the world can become a better place.

Beep beep

Daily writing prompt

What’s your favorite cartoon?

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Wile Coyote. That poor skinny coyote that never seemed to catch a break. Every dastardly plan he has for the Road Runner ends in complete disaster. Just to hear that “beep beep” as the Road Runner rushes away at high speed – fooled again looney Coyote.

I was going to say Wacky Races. Again, a 1960s childhood staple. That’s dated. Slightly over egged with stereotypes and lame jokes.

Wile Coyote and the Road Runner is still eminently watchable. Again, and again. Short, simple and sweet. Where would we be without the Acme Corporation? The Coyote’s favoured universal producer of useless mail-order goods. Beep beep.

POST: We do live an interconnected world. After I wrote the words above guess what turned up on my social media? Yes, the two cartoon characters in their never-ending pursuit of each other.

What If Semiconductors Didn’t Exist?

There are moments when it’s dark and grey outside. Moments to ponder a what-if. That’s a what-if something hadn’t happened or physical laws aren’t what they have been found to be.

In my youth I do remember making a “crystal” radio receiver[1]. A relatively fragile germanium diode and a couple of other components scraped from junk radios, record players and TV sets. It worked quite well. It was a good introduction to the theory of amplitude modulation (AM). The diode detector demodulates the radio signal and provides a faint signal to listen to. The whole arrangement is crude but cheap and simple. It depends on that useful device – a semiconductor diode.

My what-if is right there in plain sight. Let’s put aside the physical laws that give certain materials their properties. What-if the whole world of semiconductors didn’t exist?

The most immediate repercussion is that this keyboard, screen and computer would look entirely different, if it existed at all. What I’m doing now is dependent upon millions of semiconductors all doing exactly what they’ve been designed to do. Easy to take for granted – isn’t it. Our modern world is enabled by semiconductors.

Electronics would still exist. Before semiconductors were understood thermionic valves provided the ways and means to control electrical signals. Don’t think that valves[2] have disappeared in the 21^st century. There’re enthusiasts who prefer them for amplification. The sound is better (different) – so they say.

Unlike semiconductors, thermionic valves don’t lend themselves to miniaturisation. A world without semiconductors would be populated by machines that are considerably larger and heavier than those of today. But it wouldn’t be a world without sophistication. Just look at the English Electric Canberra[3]. An incredibly capable aircraft for its day. It lived a long life. Without a semiconductor in sight.

It’s difficult to imagine e-mail without semiconductors. It’s difficult to imagine the INTERNET or the mobile phone. Not that such key markets wouldn’t be satisfied by some other means. The transition to a global dependency on digital systems would probably have been considerably slowed. Maybe the pace of life wouldn’t have accelerated so much.

I don’t think we would have been trapped in a 1950s like society. Only that patterns of work would have taken a different developmental path. Would it have been the one painted in the grim tale of 1984? No. Even that takes a position of a freezing of the state of human progress.

A non-semiconductor existence would have meant less proliferation of electronic devices. It might have led to a less wasteful society where repairing equipment was given more weight.

I suspect that large global corporations would inevitably have a hold over whatever technology was most popular. That side of human behaviour is technology agnostic.

[1] https://www.nutsvolts.com/magazine/article/remembering-the-crystal-radio

[2] https://brimaruk.com/valves/

[3] https://www.baesystems.com/en-uk/english-electric-canberra

Time

Daily writing prompt

What could you do less of?

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Going down the rabbit hole. Having so much information on-hand the temptation is to chase every rabbit. That is any tantalising rabbits that might provide the answers to quiz show questions of the future.

Take for example this windy wet morning. A thread from a WhatsApp group raised a question about water supply pumping stations. Why don’t they have back-ups, or do they have back-ups, and they take time to get going? This was in response to the impact of Storm Darragh and water supply problems in parts of West Berkshire.

A wise me would have thought – that’s interesting but I’ve got several tasks to do. What’s more my tap water is fine. Flowing freely. Cool and fresh.

An unwise me, as it happens, instantly started searching to see what information there was out there on water pumping stations and how they work or don’t, as the case maybe.

There’s the dangerous rabbit hole. Once you fall into it an hour can clock by easily. Time runs differently in rabbit holes. The warning is there for all to read in that popular reference book: Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland.