Category: Economy

Get Back

It’s painful to watch. Frightening. Seeing them take over London. Yes, I did hide behind the sofa when the Cybermen[1] came on. But then again, I was only around 6 or 7-years old. They converted humans to their kind by removing emotions and personalities. Scary stuff. The sort of evil creatures that nightmares are made of. With bodies made of cybernetic parts they seemed undefeatable but like so many great science fiction stories they had weaknesses, and the Doctor knew them. My early Dr Who knew exactly what to do.

In this case it’s not fiction that I’m writing about. Just the same it was painful to watch. Frightening. Seeing them take over London and the whole country. We had years of this scary drama. In fact, its still going on around us now. Laura Kuenssberg’s State of Chaos[2] has been a true horror story. This week I caught the Part 2. I don’t think I can take another Part.

History is being penned quickly in our media age. Watching the story of how our political system was smashed-up by a bunch of marauding, well, I don’t know what to call them. Is there a collective term for careless, egotistic, idiotic, manic, obsessive, power-hungry politicians? A term one can use in polite company, that is.

Since 2016, and to a lesser degree just before, the march of Conservative politicians has been to the tune with a dangerous beat. Smash-up the norms, disregard sound advice and steam ahead with blind arrogance. Much of this is epitomised by the character of Boris Johnson, but there are so many other in the cast strange and obsessive people.

Kuenssberg must tread a fine line because getting caught up in the finger pointing polarisation of the politicians is perilous. In her time as BBC Political Editor, it must have been like walking across Niagara on a tightrope every day.

The State of Chaos is giving us a new perspective on the Conservative Party’s on-going civil war. It seems the situation was even worse than we had been led to believe. This documentary is a treasure-trove of extraordinary material that is only a sample of what happened.

I’d say we all agree. It doesn’t matter which side of the Brexit argument that you stand or stood. Utter chaos has transpired in the reign of the last 5 Conservative Prime Ministers. Interviewees can point fingers at each other, all the same the word chaos applies.

In the coming months the lessons from this fearful period need to be learned. A new normal need to be established. We need to get back[3] what we have lost. Get back a sense of responsibility. Get back a reputation for competence. Get back ambition for the future.

[1] Dr Who. The Cybermen first appear in the serial The Tenth Planet in 1966, set in 1986.

[2] https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episodes/m001qgww/laura-kuenssberg-state-of-chaos

[3] I must be channelling The Beatles.

Upfront

Years of looking at the reliability of aircraft components and structure have given engineers a good understanding of the natural decay of mechanical workings. To that extent even electronic components are mechanical. Materials oxidise (rust), random shocks and vibration take their toll, temperatures cycles from cold to hot and back again a whole range of impacts are relentless. You can say – nothing lasts forever.

Occasionally a discovery adds to the knowledge of how materials behave under high stress. Sadly, that’s what hit the early years of civil jet aviation. The de Havilland DH106 “Comet” was the world’s first passenger carrying jet airliner. It first took to the air in 1949, which I find remarkable.

Catastrophic metal fatigue failure of the aircraft fuselage put paid to this British aviation project but only after several tragic fatal accidents. In 1954, the Comet aircraft were all grounded during an extensive accident investigation. The jets were redesigned and re-entered commercial service in 1958. However, by then the aircraft had a damaged reputation and others were doing far better. Now, those Comet aircraft that remain are museum exhibits[1].

Last week, I walked through the fuselage of a Comet 1A built in 1953 at Hatfield for Air France. It’s fascinating to see what advanced aviation technology was 70-years ago. What was surprising to me was the read across from that first version of a jet aircraft and what we have in-service now.

Automation has removed the place of the navigator and the flight engineer, but the stations of the pilot and co-pilot are familiar. The fuselage is cramped but the seating is generous and spacious. This aircraft must have been a dramatic revolution in flying at the time.

As we look to advance aviation in the coming years, with new ways of flying and new ways of powering flight so the warning of the Comet project should be heeded. We are at a time of extraordinary changes in the aviation industry. Advanced technology can deliver great benefits to society. It’s up to us to make sure we cover all the possible disbenefits as far upfront as we can. If we don’t, they will come back to bite us.

[1] https://www.dehavillandmuseum.co.uk/aircraft/de-havilland-dh106-comet-1a/

Newspeak

Listening to the drivel coming from The Rt Hon Kemi Badenoch MP[1] this morning on the radio reminds me that we have a long way to go. The road travelled is a long one.

The tendency to either speak like a badly typed up press release or repeatedly call apples – pears is astonishing. It must be that there’s a switch that has been thrown in the brains of Ministers that is hit to engage illogical nonsense. From that moment a droning sound emanates. Jumbled up words are contrived to say Brexit = good – not Brexit = bad. You would imagine that such Ministers think they are talking to naughty 5-year-olds. It doesn’t mater what the facts are this behaviour continues.

Even good news, like BMW’s continued investment in the UK, is flipped into an EU bashing session. The fact is that the UK had to demonstrate its willingness to support the car industry to retain that much needed investment.

Brexit has been, and is, a complete catastrophe, and everyone knows it. That is everyone who isn’t a Conservative Minister, or a Labour would be Minister. Badenoch plays childish games to paint a picture of great success when the reality is one of significant pressure.

The Foreign Direct Investment Statistics are not good[2]. To quote a recent report to Parliament: “Net investment from the EU was -£24.1 billion, compared to £28.0 billion in 2020, while net investment from Europe as a whole was -£27.6 billion “. Note the “-“, in other words negative.

To quote further:” The UK’s share of inward investment projects has stabilised after “falling sharply following the 2016 vote for Brexit”, with the 21% of projects attracted in 2015 “representing the high-water mark.” In other words, the UK was doing exceptionally well until Brexit came along.

And so much for so called – levelling up. London retained its status as the UK’s largest destination for inward investment projects. London continues to attract the world’s attention.

What’s further idiocy is the random pick and mix approach that this Conservative Government has adopted. There appears to be no strategy. No direction. Just an opportunism. Jump in a wholly reactive manner and then announce success, as if it was planned.

Looking at investment going the other way. The UK’s outward investment flows to the US reached their highest level since 2017. So, post-Brexit, British investors see opportunity in the US. Could it be because they are investing? The US Infrastructure Law targets a range of spending from repaving roads and water system upgrades.

With the News, such as it is, surely, we need a UK Infrastructure Law. Would British investors not want to support that idea?

POST 1: Badenoch would not face the reality. On Sky News she skirted around the subject but let slip that cars will be more expensive in the UK because of Brexit. Rules of origin impact the British car industry.

POST 2: For the sake of balance. At least Badenoch is taking a practical approach to China. The Conservative back benchers who push for a hard line are not thinking about the need for dialogue on climate change and trade. Intelligence and Security Committee of Parliament China (independent.gov.uk)

[1] https://www.gov.uk/government/people/kemi-badenoch

[2] https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8534/CBP-8534.pdf

Horizon

There’s been a couple of false dawns. Now, the morning’s News is that the UK will rejoin the European Horizon programme. The EU’s Horizon Europe Framework Programme (HORIZON) provides grant funding for research priority topics for the years 2021-2027.

The recognition that there’s a common interest in research across Europe is welcome. There are important areas of investigation that go well beyond the resources available to any one country. Benefiting from collaboration is a win-win.

Access to Horizon Europe will be a great opportunity for UK aerospace[1]. It has been in the past and surly will be in the future. Of the billions available there’s a good chunk for funding opportunities for aerospace research and technology. This funding is particularly focused on greening aviation.

Such subjects as the competitiveness and digital transformation in aviation are addressed too. Advancing the regions capabilities in a digital approach to aerospace design, development and manufacturing will be invaluable to UK industry. Artificial Intelligence (AI) used for Machine Learning (ML) and complex modelling are the tools that will be deployed throughout the global industrial environment.

Europe can pioneer the first hydrogen-powered commercial aircraft. The major role the UK can play in advancing this aim is self-evident. Ambition, capabilities, and expertise reside here. The magnification of this to tackle what are enormous challenges can only be a good move.

Projects like ENABLEH2[2] provide a pathway to the introduction of liquid H2 for civil aviation. These projects are not easy, but they do provide a long-term environmental and sustainability advantages. Access to these projects can minimise duplication and the dangers of spending valuable resources on pursuing blind alleys.

Research is not just a matter of hard technology. Without the new skills that are required to meet the targets for a green transition it will fail. Investments in upskilling and reskilling opportunities are equally important to enabling change.

The principles of propulsion of hydrogen and electric systems need to be taught at every level. It’s not academics in lab coats that will keep civil aviation flying on a day-by-day basis. Training programmes for a new generation of manufacturing and maintenance engineers will need to be put in place. Research will underpin that work. 

[1] https://www.ati.org.uk/news/access-to-horizon-europe/

[2] https://www.enableh2.eu/

RAAC

Reinforced autoclaved aerated concrete (RAAC) is making the News in the UK. An unknown number of buildings are deemed dangerous because of the aging of this material[1]. RAAC has a limited lifespan. It’s inferior to standard concrete but lightweight and low-cost at the start of its life. It was typically used in precast panels in walls, roofs and sometimes floors.

The UK Government says it has been aware of RAAC in public sector buildings, including schools, since 1994. Warnings from the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) says that RAAC could – collapse with little or no notice. This “bubbly” form of concrete can creep and deflect over time, and this can be aggravated by water penetration. So, regular inspection and maintenance are vital to keep this material safe. Especially in a country known for its inclement weather.

It’s reasonable to say there lies a problem. The public estate has been through a period of austerity. One of the first tasks to get cut back, when funds are short is regular maintenance. Now, I am making some assumptions in this respect, but they are reasonable. Public sector spending has been under significant pressure for a long time.

The other dogmatic notion that has hindered a solution to this building problem is centralisation. There was a time when local authorities managed schools. They still do but in smaller numbers. Centralised funding has decreased the power of local people to address problems with the school estate.

Aging buildings have something in common with aging structures in aviation. There’s always a demand to keep going for as long as possible. There’s always the difficulty of determining the safety margin that is acceptable. There’s always a pressure on maintenance costs.

Believe it or not aircraft structures do fail[2]. There’s a tendency to forget this source of incidents and accidents but they never go away[3]. What happens in industries where safety is a priority is investigation, feedback and learning from incidents and accidents. The aim being to ensure that there’s no repeat of known failures. Rules and regulations change to address known problems.

The vulnerability to moisture and the limited lifespan of RAAC should have been a loud wake-up call. No doubt it was for some well-managed, well-resourced enlightened organisations. Central Government has bulked at the cost of fixing this known building safety problem. A culture of delaying the fixing of difficult problems has won.

In civil aviation there’s a powerful tool called an Airworthiness Directive (AD). It’s not something that an aircraft operator can ignore or put on the back burner. The AD can mandate inspections and changes to an aircraft when an unsafe condition exists.

In the schools cases in the News, the impression is given that Government Ministers have dragged their heels and only acted at the last possible moment. Maybe the construction industry and public estate needs a strong regulator that can issue mandatory directives. Known unsafe conditions should not be left unaddressed or significantly delayed.

[1] https://www.local.gov.uk/topics/housing-and-planning/information-reinforced-autoclaved-aerated-concrete-raac

[2] https://www.faa.gov/lessons_learned/transport_airplane/accidents/N73711

[3] https://www.faa.gov/lessons_learned/transport_airplane/accidents/TC-JAV

Learn by testing

Back in the mid-1980s, aircraft system integration was part of my stock-in-trade. Project managing the integration of a safety critical system into a large new helicopter. It was a challenging but rewarding job. Rewarding in that there was a successful new aircraft at the end of the day.

For big and expensive development projects there are a great number of risks. The technical ones focus on functionality, performance, and safety. The commercial ones focus on getting the job done on-time and at a reasonable price. Project managers are in the middle of that sandwich.

Naturally, the expectations of corporate managers in the companies that take on these big challenges is that systems and equipment integration can be done to the book. Quickly and without unexpected outcomes. The practical reality is that people must be well prepared and extremely lucky not to encounter setbacks and resets. It’s not just test failures and anomalies that must be investigated and addressed. Systems integrators are working on shifting sand. The more that is known about overall aircraft flight test performance and customers preferences so technical specifications change.

With cockpit display systems, in the early days, that was often feedback from customer pilots who called for changes to the colour, size or shape of the symbology that was displayed on their screens. What can seem a simple post-flight debriefing remark could then turn into a huge change programme.

That was particularly true of safety critical software-based systems. Equipment suppliers may have advanced their design to a state where much of the expensive design validation and verification was complete. Then a system integrator comes up with a whole set of change that need to be done without additional costs and delivered super-fast. Once a flight test programme gets going it can’t be stopped without serious implications. It’s a highly dynamic situation[1].

I’m writing this blog in reaction to the news coming from Vertical Aerospace. Their VX4 prototype aircraft was involved in an flight test incident that did a lot of damage[2]. There’s no doubt this incident can provide data to feedback into the design, performance, and safety of future versions of their aircraft[3]. Integrating complex hardware and software is hard but the rewards are great.

“Excellence is never an accident. It is always the result of high intention, sincere effort, and intelligent execution.” – Aristotle

[1] https://youtu.be/Gb_eta4mZkc

[2] https://evtolinsights.com/2023/08/vertical-aerospace-identifies-propeller-as-root-cause-of-august-9-vx4-incident/

[3] https://investor.vertical-aerospace.com/news/news-details/2023/Vertical-Aerospaces-VX4-Programme-Moves-to-the-Next-Phase/default.aspx

NATS

A “technical issue” has caused UK National Air Traffic Services, NATS to impose air traffic flow restrictions[1]. They did not close UK airspace. This was not a repeat of the volcanic ash events of early 2010. Going from a fully automated system to a fully manual system had the dramatic impact that might be expected. The consequences, on one of the busiest weekends in the holiday calendar were extremely significant. Huge numbers of people have had their travel disrupted. Restricting the air traffic system ensured that aviation safety was maintained. The costs came to the UK’s air traffic handling capacity and that meant delays and cancelled flights.

Although the failures that caused the air traffic restriction were quickly resolved the time to recover from this incident meant it had a long tail. Lots of spoilt holidays and messed up travel plans.

It is normal for an Air Traffic Service (ATS) provider to undertake a common cause failure analysis. This is to identify multiple failures that may result from one event. So, the early public explanations coming from NATS of the causes of this major incident are surprising. Across the globe, contingency planning is a requirement for ATS. The requirement for the development, promulgation and application of contingency plans is called up in international standards, namely ICAO Annex 11.

So, the story that a single piece of flight data brought down the traffic handling capacity of a safety related system, to such a low level, is difficult to accept. It’s evident that there is redundancy in the systems of NATS, but it seems to be woefully inadequate when faced with reality. ATS comprise of people, procedures, and systems. Each has a role to play. Safety of operations comes first in priority and then air traffic handling capacity. What we know about even highly trained people and data entry is that human error is an everyday issue. System design and implementation needs to be robust enough to accommodate this fact. So, again attributing such a highly disruptive event to one set of incorrect data inputs does not chime with good practice or basic aviation safety management. It is concerning that one action can bring down a major network in this way.

EUROCONTROL would have had been sent a “rogue” flight plan in the same way as UK NATS. Brussels does not seem to have had the problems of the UK.

It is early days in respect of any detailed technical investigation. Drawing conclusions, whatever is said in public by senior officials may not be the best thing to do.

Calls for compensation have a good basis for proceeding. The holiday flight chaos across Europe comes down to one single failure, if initial reports are correct. That can not be acceptable. The incident left thousands stranded abroad with high costs to pay to get home.

Before privatisation, there was a time when the UK Civil Aviation Authority (CAA), ran the nation’s air traffic services[2]. It had a poor reputation at the time. I remember a popular newspaper cartoon saying – and now for some clowns from the CAA. They were entertaining delayed passengers.

UK NATS has done much good work to manage a safe expansion in air traffic and address many changes in technology, it would be a shame if this sad incident marks a decline in overall network performance.

NOTE 1: And this topical cartoon from the Daily Mail in April 2002: https://www.pinterest.es/pin/497577458805993023/

NOTE 2: A report on the incident is to be sent to the regulator, UK CAA on Monday, 6th September. Transport secretary to see Nats’ ATC meltdown report next week | Travel Weekly

NOTE 3: The likelihood of one in 15 million sounds like a low number but it’s not “incredibly rare” by any definition. Certainty when there are around 6000 flights a day in the UK. A duplicate error occurring is a basic error that could be anticipated.

[1] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-66644343

[2] https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn01309/

Even more H2

There’s a couple of Hydrogen related topics that are worth a moment. One is super conductors and the other is fire.

Heavy complex equipment like the magnets for particle accelerators use superconductors[1]. When there’s space and a need for powerful magnetics, materials with special physical properties, at extreme cold temperatures find a good use.

Talk of room-temperature superconductors is far from what it seems. Such a wonderful innovation is a million miles from any practical applications, if it exists at all. There’s no theory of high-temperature superconductivity, but there’s quite a few physicists who would like to find one[2].

Aviation researchers search for high temperature superconductors for electrical propulsion with extraordinary performance is on. The likelihood of success is low, and the timeframes are very long.

When an aircraft is flying at high altitude, the cabin altitude is maintained for the safety and comfort of passengers and crew. Air compressors, valves, sensors, and controllers make sure that cabin pressure remains at equivalent to an altitude of about 8,000 feet, and lower in some cases. So, any kind of simply flammable gasses or materials inside an aircraft cabin are a definite no no. It’s a big hazard.

In flight, the positive pressure should keep leaking gas out of the cabin. That is as long as the sources of fresh air for the cabin are keep well away from potential leaks.

That’s where Hydrogen gas can present trouble. Leaks can be common in dynamic Hydrogen systems. Storage tanks must be very strong to resist pressures and insulated to keep cold, at around –250°C. Escaping H2 gas is tiny. If that’s vented overboard then the risk of explosion or fire is significantly lowered. Knowing the exact flows of liquid or gas is a must.

However, if the gas finds its way into a pressurise cabin that basic option is limited. Not only that but detecting low concentrations of the gas in the first place is mighty difficult. Its odourless but at least Hydrogen isn’t poisonous.

The big safety issue is that the gas has a very wide flammability range (4 – 70% H2 in air mixture)[3]. Yes, H2 needs a spark to ignite. A typical aircraft cabin environment will easily provide that event. Dry air and static electricity will do it even if other sources will not.

To compound difficulties, if H2 does ignite, and not explode, then its flame may not be visible to the human eye. The flame is almost colourless. Certainly, not what most people think of as a gas flame. Gas and flame detectors could be installed in aircraft cabins and baggage compartments. Audible and visual alarms could be generated but what would be the associated crew actions?

All the above requires detailed consideration in aircraft safety assessments. The move away from prescriptive regulatory requirements means each specific aircraft configuration must be addressed. There are no generic lessons to learn from past aviation accidents and incidents.

Although, I think these puzzles can be solved it’s a huge leap from here to there.

POST: Yes, Hydrogen is not for every application. Small scale aviation is better served by electrification Five Hydrogen Myths – Busted. – RMI

[1] https://home.cern/science/engineering/superconductivity

[2] https://www.science.org/doi/epdf/10.1126/science.adk2105

[3] https://h2tools.org/bestpractices/hydrogen-flames

More H2

I think this came at me both ways as a schoolboy. Both from chemistry and physics. In our 1960s chemistry lab, Bunsen burners, flasks and array of hazardous substances were the norm. Physics seemed more cerebral. Still, the hands-on side of teaching still meant some practical experimentation. That’s the part that most engrossed me.

Electrolysis starred in two mostly harmless experiments. The colourful one was about copper sulfate[1] and the other was about splitting water into its component parts. Getting Oxygen (O2) and Hydrogen (H2) gas by electrolysis[2] is mighty simple and one of those wonders of nature.

Electrolysis is a way of producing carbon-free Hydrogen from renewable and nuclear resources. Despite the apparent straightforwardness of the process, it’s quite tricky to industrialise on a large scale. One key factor to the future use of Hydrogen is getting the cost per Kg down[3].

Let’s presume that this is a solvable problem and cheap and plentiful gas supplies will be up and running by 2030. That’s not so far off given its 2023. There will surely be a market for ample supplies given the multitude of applications for Hydrogen. Will it be a global market? It needs to be.

It’s a talking point. Hydrogen fuel is one of the viable fuels for aviation. Generating power and returning it to water in the atmosphere is an attractive idea. The process meets carbon-free ambitions even if it does have lots of complications.

On average, a Boeing 737-800 uses about 5,000 lbs (2268 kg) of conventional fuel per flight hour[4]. Cryogenic Hydrogen has lower energy density. That means much more on-board fuel storage will be needed to go as far or fly as long as a current day common commercial jet aircraft.

Designing an aircraft configuration that can accommodate these facts can be done but what of the space that remains for the payload? As it does today, on-board fuel storage will need to meet stringent safety requirements.

Adding this up, it may not be the technical issues that make this difficult. Although they are difficult the technical issues can be addressed. However, will the overall package that results be economically viable? If costs are increased by a factor of, say 5, will this provide for a commercial air transport system that is like the current one?

We may have to accept that carbon-free flying reverts to the 1960s[5]. What I mean is that, instead of low-cost flights hopping here, there, and everywhere for £100, the future maybe one where long-haul flying is a relative luxury or an expensive business need.

[1] https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/guides/zgn8b82/revision/3

[2] https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/guides/zv2yb82/revision/1

[3] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1220812/global-hydrogen-production-cost-forecast-by-scenario/

[4] http://www.b737.org.uk/fuel.htm

[5] https://www.skyscanner.com.au/news/airlines/the-golden-age-of-plane-travel-what-flying-was-like-in-the-1950s-and-1960s-compared-to-now

ULEZ 2

It’s not the first time I’ve experienced poor air quality. It’s a wonderful city but, on certain days of the year, the air in the German city Cologne is unpleasant. It can be stagnated, stale and dirty when the weather’s hot and there’s no wind blowing.

It was compulsory. You get a fine if you don’t have one. I remember getting a green environmental badge for my car[1]. This is a scheme by which the most polluting vehicles are banned from the central city. Introduced in 2008, initially vehicles were not banned but everyone had to have a coloured badge. These were red, yellow, or green depending upon the type of vehicle. Now, only green environmental badged vehicles are permitted to enter a prescribed city zone.

Yesterday, I drove from Reigate in Surrey to Croydon. Purley Way in fact. That’s a part of the main A23 road in the London Borough of Croydon. I now wonder at my sanity in doing so. The traffic was abominable. Purley Way is a mass of shopping warehouses, tarmac, and suburban sprawl.

What’s visible is the provisions for the introduction of the Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ)[2] at the end of the month. Cameras and signs. This doesn’t ban dirty vehicles from London, but it does charge them a £12.50 daily to drive into or within the ULEZ zone. 

So, here are two different approaches to addressing poor air quality. The German one doesn’t require extensive infrastructure, but it does mean additional policing. The London one is more permissive but at a price. Collecting money from polluting vehicle owners to pay for cameras, enforcement, and publicity. Both require signage to warn drivers of the zone boundaries. Both have their detractors who object to any kind of restrictions.

To me, the problem of poor air quality can not be put on the back burner. You don’t need sensors and precision measurement to know that the problem is huge, real, and persistent. Even in my small Surrey town, the marked difference between days of traffic jams and empty roads is so evident. In the middle of COVID, I walked the High Street of Reigate, and the air was as clear and fresh as a Cornish village in winter. This week, with road works underway the town has been one big traffic jam and breathing the steamy air walking the pavement is not nice. Health suffers and it’s not just the environmental damage.

The utility of the internal combustion engine has seduced our communities. Now, the balance between the benefits of driving and the freedom it once symbolised has tipped. The sheer mass of vehicles in urban environments and their daily impact is so damaging that restrictions must be mandatory. There’s no turning back.

In Cologne, these changes are particularly pertinent. It could be said that the whole ball started rolling in that city. In the district of Deutz there’s a monument to Nicolaus August Otto[3]. He was a German engineer who successfully developed the internal combustion engine.

[1] https://www.stadt-koeln.de/leben-in-koeln/klima-umwelt-tiere/luft-umweltzone/die-koelner-umweltzone

[2] https://tfl.gov.uk/modes/driving/ultra-low-emission-zone

[3] https://www.deutz.com/en/media/press-releases/125th-anniversary-of-the-death-of-nicolaus-august-otto