Economy – Page 21 – John Vincent

ULEZ

Londoners in all Boroughs need clearer air to breathe

Oh yes. London has an air quality problem. It’s not the only city by any means. My recent trip to Cologne left me in no doubt that cities must address this problem. It’s an insidious hazard. It’s not so – in your face – as noise or water pollution. We’ve this human capacity to normalise bad things. Much to our detriment. Air quality becomes most evident when you move from a place of bad air quality to a place of good air quality. Then the difference becomes acutely noticeable.

Last weekend, I was in the West Country. Way down the A303. The difference is quite striking.

Last evening, I was traveling on the Tube to get to the Albert Hall. The difference is quite striking.

Whatever you may think about the implementation of the Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) in London, there’s a need to do something drastic.

Expanding ULEZ across all London Boroughs from 29 August 2023 is getting a lot of political attention. No doubt some of this is whipped up purely to punish the Labour Mayor. However, the dilemma is clear. Penalising a lot of people who are not directly feeling the discomfort of poor air quality is inevitably going to cause a stink.

Now, we shouldn’t get disproportionately agitated. That fact is that poor air quality is killing people is not in question. The fact that a small fraction of vehicle owners will be made to pay is not in question[1]. The balancing act between reliving an unacceptable situation of harm and causing minimal economic pain is a tricky one. It would be a tricky one for whoever was in power.

My view is that measure that force people to change their vehicles should be accompanied with a practical scheme to compensate them for significant financial losses. Or that the emissions thresholds set should take account of the natural turn-over of vehicles that takes place in normal years. The political controversy of the moment is much because of the speed of change and its coincidence with a cost-of-living crisis that is very real.

Londoners in all Boroughs need clearer air to breathe. But London doesn’t sit in isolation. Afterall the Borough boundaries do not track urban boundaries. Parts of adjoining areas are equally urbanised, and the air doesn’t know about administrative boundaries. The M25 motorway doesn’t do much for air quality, that’s for sure. So, hearing of the London Mayor doing battle with adjoining areas is a bit sad. Solutions need to be negotiated with all impacted parties regardless of the politics.

By the way, I’m not impressed with communications from Transport for London. I clicked on an e-mail sent to me on the above subject and this came up: “This link has expired. Please contact the sender of the email for more information.” Thanks a lot.

[1] More than 4 out of 5 vehicles meet emissions standards, but if you use a petrol vehicle over 16 years old, or a diesel vehicle over 6 years old, you need to check it.

Energy Policy

Saint Augustine’s early life was not what we associate with a saint. As a young man he prayed “Lord, make me chaste (pure) – but not yet!” Just now that’s the way, I fear, we are thinking of the environment. Global, national, or local. It’s total human but it needs to be fully recognised for its downside. Yes, we would like to do more to restore our environment and fight climate change but we’d rather it happened tomorrow. Tomorrow, tomorrow.

The instinctive urge to put-off decisions for what appears to be an easier life now rattles down through history. The lesson we might learn is that this approach is generally a bad way of going about thing if long-term success is the aim. Civilizations have ended because they failed to change.

This blinkered approach could be called political expediency. It’s at the core of what has become political populism[1]. The drive to persuade an electorate by retreating from commitments and heralding jam today. This fits our social media saturated public debate to the tee. I want it, and I want it now. The future will look after itself.

It’s a sad philosophy. I say that because the premises is that we may as well live well today because we have no control over what happens next. In populist terms, that’s put down to an imaginary conspiring elite that will inevitably win regardless of what you do. Truly nonsense.

That might have been true in the stone age but its far from true in the 21^st Century. In reality, and on average, individual citizens have more choice than they have ever had. I say “on average” because there’s a billion people in the world who still live on the breadline.

Anyway, my point is that putting-off environmental measure is foolish. I’m reacting to a Conservative Energy Minister, has said that the UK government will “max out” remaining reserves of North Sea oil and gas[2]. I’s almost as if the Minister thinks this has no impact. That’s other than short-term political gain amongst climate sceptics and right-wing newspaper owners.

If the target for Net Zero is – yes but not yet – there’s virtually no hope of achieving the goal. Events being what they are there will never be a perfect time to stop using fossil fuels. I’m in agreement that the rundown of fossil fuel use should be graduated. However, putting off real change doesn’t make change easier. In fact, it makes change harder.

In the run-up to a UK General Election the possibilities for policies of self-harm are all too evident. A Conservative Government desperate to cling on to power will wriggle and produce contorted justifications for delay. It’s a basic instinct.

I’m not saying that we should all become zealous exponent of hairshirt policies. What is desperate is that we don’t become side-tracked from practical measures that can be practically taken. Taken now.

Work as though everything depended on you, and the choices you make. That needs to be true of Government Ministers as much as every one of us[3].

[1] https://www.thoughtco.com/populism-definition-and-examples-4121051

[2] https://www.ft.com/content/407b834e-a503-4de9-acab-fcf88d76dbb3

[3] Pray as though everything depended on God. Work as though everything depended on you. Saint Augustine

Thumbs down to British Conservatives

It has been a morning when one thing is certain. Real votes, in real ballot boxes give an indication that British opinion polls are not so far off reality. Conservatives got a pounding when voters expressed their preferences. The only thing to hold back the tide was in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, where the local issue was squarely London’s plans to expand its Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ)[1].

The Liberal Democrats won in Somerset and Frome by a huge majority. The Labour Party won Selby and Ainsty with a significant swing. Prime Minister (PM) Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives are soundly on the back foot.

These seats in the House of Commons (HoCs) became vacant as Members of Parliament (MPs) stood down. In these cases, these by-elections have taken place before a soon coming General Elections (GE). Traditionally, that means there’s an element of protest in by-election results that is often more locally focused than in a GE. However, as Tip O’Neill, a former Speaker of the US House of Representatives, was quoted as saying “all politics is local”[2].

The UK Parliament’s HoCs doesn’t sit again until September, but it will have 3 new MPs when it does.

The British economy is underperforming, its health service is struggling, and the cost of living is punishing a lot of people. So, there’s plenty of work for a government to do, even if they seem to have run out of ideas, momentum, and talent.

In terms of the bigger picture there’s a sign that green issues can present politicians with a double-edged sword. On the one hand voters genuinely want to see progress towards greater sustainability and on the other hand they don’t want measures forced on them that make them poorer. Here’s a challenge to all the political parties.

Now, former London Mayor and PM Boris Johnson has gone back to scribbling for the tabloid newspapers and his political style is heading for the dustbin. British Conservatives are floundering with a national identity crisis. Although the Labour Party should be pushing at an open door, there’re plenty of obstacles that remain in their way. For the Liberal Democrats the news is universally good. They have reestablished themselves in their West Country heartlands.

We are only halfway through 2023. It’s been more than a year since MP, and former Conservative Government Minister Nadine Dorries has spoken in the UK Parliament. She did say she would step down but, so far, when this will happen remains a complete mystery[3]. Being an MP should be a full-time job and not just a badge of status. The people of Mid-Bedfordshire deserve better. So, we await her next move on this subject.

[1] https://tfl.gov.uk/modes/driving/ultra-low-emission-zone

[2]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All_politics_is_local#:~:text=The%20phrase%20%22all%20politics%20is,he%20did%20not%20originate%20it.

[3] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-65998062

Short-sighted

None of that comes cheap.

OK. Why are mini-nuclear power stations such an irrational idea? The industry is selling these untried, untested power station as completely unlike that which has gone before. A Conservative Minister has been echoing their marketing brochures.

Let me say, with power generation there are some basic realities that remain the same.

Fuel must be transported to power stations and waste must be removed from them on a regular basis. For coal, that was the reason for the sitting of large power stations in the past. For gas, there was more flexibility in location, but the costs of transportation still needed to be minimised. For such innovations as waste-to-energy plants, proximity to the source of waste presented a major problem. Neighbourhoods rarely invited these plants to be built close by.

Spreading the distribution of nuclear fuel and waste around the country doesn’t sound like a good idea to me. Cost of transportation are high. Safety is paramount. Security is always a grave concern.

Now, I understand the need for limited numbers large-scale nuclear power stations. They provide a reliable base load when the renewable sources of power are not available. The wind doesn’t blow.

Although, there are a variety of different international companies in the nuclear business the notion of a “free market” in the conventional sense is not a real prospect. The investments needed to be competent and meet regulatory requirements in the nuclear business are huge. Projects are there for the long-term. A whole working career of a nuclear engineer may be locked to one technology.

Experience has shown us that a goal of zero accidents rarely delivers a reality of zero accidents. These are complex engineered systems. It doesn’t matter if they are big or small the complexities remain. Yes, safety can be managed in a safety critical industry but there had better be preparedness for worst possible outcomes[1]. With these nuclear plants decommissioning and recovery from significant incidents of contamination must be accounted for in any design, implementation, and operation. None of that comes cheap.

Overall, in Britain there are much better paths to travel than the mini-nuclear one.

It absolutely astonishes me that, given the enormous tidal range of the Severn Estuary[2] we have never captured the energy of those waters. Equality in a nation, with a coast as large as ours, we have only ever dabbled in wave power[3]. Let’s have some genuine innovation. Let’s think like the Victorians and build for the long-term.

Why are we so incredibly short-sighted in Britain?

[1] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-13047267

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severn_Barrage

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salter%27s_duck

Not again!

Why do we have so many inept and poorly qualified Government Ministers

To be a Government Minister you should have some kind of relevant qualification, or at least ability. Surely? Maybe you are competent in public administration or good at media presentation. In this case the man fronting a UK Conservative Government’s new policy looks, and sounds like a big floundering fish out of water.

Asked the simplest of questions. The very simplest of questions. Those that even the most elementary speaker would have practiced before exposing themselves, this Minister, of Education no less, performed like a partisan chump. Announcing a headline grabbing policy to stop ‘Rip-Off’ university degrees[1] this Member of Parliament went on Good Morning Britain totally ill-prepared[2]. The result was extremely embarrassing.

Why do we have so many inept and poorly qualified Government Ministers? What was totally obvious from the start was that this policy is being introduced without any idea of how it’s going to be implemented. No sense of real life.

Mr Halfron hadn’t given any thought what-so-ever to how to present his virgin education policy. Media interviewers are entitled to ask for illustrations and examples. The public watching, and listening will certainly what to know – what does this policy really mean? Who will be impacted?

Limiting the number of students that can go to university sounds like a profoundly unconservative policy to me. Surely, it’s for young people to make their own choices past the age of 18. If there are “poor” university courses in Britain, then that is a matter for a rigorous system of quality control. It should not be for dogmatically eliminating course subjects. Yet again, a weak Prime Minister and Education Secretary are pandering to a tabloid media agenda.

15 months after graduation there are likely to be many people who are going to be exceptionally successful in later life. To take an example, creative writing may not land a big job, but the spark of imagination and a deal of luck can produce authors who go on the have phenomenal global success.

The problem, Mr Halfron, in Britain is not what you study but the inequities of our society. What is the objective worth of a Philosophy, Politics and Economics (PPE) degree from a Russel group university[3]? Noting that the mistakes made by so qualified Ministers are rarely accounted. Billion are lost to the national economy every year by poor decisions, incompetence, and ideological nonsense. Dare I mention the saga of the other PPE, Personal Protective Equipment (PPE).

What a massive contrast to what’s just happened in the US. The Biden administration has announced a multibillion relief scheme for student loans. The US Education Department says their new plan will help more than 800,000 borrowers[4]. What an effective way of helping past students stand on their own two feet in tough economic times.

POST: And again today. Even when good news is posted the Minister sent on the media round performs no better than a rusty Austin Allegro with an empty tank.

[1] https://www.personneltoday.com/hr/rip-off-degrees/

[2] https://youtu.be/vHOwmZQa37s

[3] https://russellgroup.ac.uk/about/our-universities/

[4] https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2023/07/14/biden-student-loan-forgiveness-income-driven/

Bad Smell

Where is the accountability?

My desk, that’s the one in the early 1990s, faced towards the London Gatwick airport approach. It was a good reminder of the business we were in at the time. Seeing aircraft land and take-off about 500 m from the sheet glass windows of our office block was the daily background. Being in a rugged hermetically sealed building aircraft noise wasn’t a great concern.

Little more than 300m from the building and looking in the same direction was, and still is, the Gatwick sewage works. Its structures were low rise, so it was often hidden behind the greenery. Every so often, a strong wind would blow from the northeast. When it did a distinct odor filled the air. Yes, you guessed it. The sweet smell of the sewerage works would permeate the air conditioning.

This odor was at its most notable in the metrological conditions called an inversion[1]. In fact, given the seasonal frequency of these weather conditions it could be said that Gatwick wasn’t the most sensible place to build a major airport. These occasional pongs were a bit of a joke. Along with the occasional smells of unburnt aviation fuel it was just life at the airport. Lingering odors didn’t stay for long. A day at most and the wind would change direction back to where it normally came from – the south west.

Airports and sewage works are not a good combination for the health of rivers and streams. Long ago, when Gatwick airport was built the tributaries of the River Mole[2] were diverted. The part of that river, the Gatwick stream going north to south, at the end of the runway, is an unattractive V-shaped gully. Not nice for nature at all. There was a track that ran parallel with the river. In the summer, I’d walk that track at a lunchtime as it was a way of getting to the airport’s south terminal.

In the news, Thames Water are being fined for dumping raw sewage in the River Mole[3]. The consequences of the UK’s water regulator[4] taking a relatively hands-off approach to managing water companies, since privatisation in the late 1980s, has come home to roost.

I must admit, I’m not the least bit surprised. So far, the dance of those who shrug their shoulders astonishing. Ministers, regulators, company chiefs are all pointing fingers at each other.

The sequence of events is mind blowing when looked at over several decades[5]. Chief executives attracting massive salaries. Companies being loaded up with debt. Generous payouts to shareholders. Investments in infrastructure not keeping pace.

Ofwat, the regulator talks with incredible complacency. Such weak regulators are no more than a piggy in the middle as the powerful forces of unethical commercial behaviour and disinterested government oversight combine. As millions of families struggle with the cost of living this kind of failure is intolerable. Where is the accountability?

[1] https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/types-of-weather/temperature/temperature-inversion

[2] https://www.southeastriverstrust.org/river-mole/

[3] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/thames-water-sewage-spill-gatwick-airport-b2368707.html

[4] https://www.ofwat.gov.uk/

[5] https://www.bbc.com/news/business-66103356.amp

Dog Days

It’s only when I looked this up that I realised how apt it was. Summer is upon us. Today, it’s not so hot, in-fact it’s been raining. Welcome rain. My garden looks fresher for it. These are the days of summer heat in southern England. They are known as “dog days”. It’s the period between early July and early September. These summer days can be delightful, but they can be uncomfortable, a source of fatigue and a time of unexpected thunderstorms. What I learned was that the term “dog days” comes from the appearance in the sky of the dog star, known as Sirius[1].

We are getting into the dog days of summer in terms of parliamentary time too. The House of Commons recess dates for this session of the UK Parliament are that it rises on 20 July 2023 and returns on 4 Sept 2023. That would be a useful time for the current Conservative Government consider calling a General Election. I can hear their death rattle so I suspect they will not.

Last evening, I caught a debate on the Parliamentary TV channel. The main business was the second reading of the Economic Activity of Public Bodies (Overseas Matters) Bill. It’s a truly hopeless and appallingly badly drafted legislative proposal[2]. That’s when the thought of “dog days” came into my mind. The term has more than one meaning. My thought here was that we have truly entered a period of stagnation in common sense The current Conservative Government is tabling dreadfully ill thought-out and unsafe proposals that suppresses free-speech and will become a charter for lawyers to paw over for years.

The timing of this Parliamentary debate, given what is happening in Israeli-occupied West Bank, is terrible. A wise government minister would have pulled it.

It never has been ethical policy for a government minister, to supress democratic discussion. This bill would gag local government and other public bodies[3]. It’s poorly drafted text that will have a detrimental impact at domestic and international level.

The summer can bring drought. What we have here is a drought of political imagination, a cavalcade of populist babble that concentrates power and an unethical embarrassment. I remember the days when throughout the country people and democratically elected public bodies opposed apartheid. This bill, had it been in place at that time, would have outlawed such opposition.

A well drafted law that addresses the issues associated with the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) movement might have been welcomed. A political consensus should have been sought. What has been tabled by this fading Government is sweeping yet vague powers that go way beyond addressing the one issue of BDS and Israel. It’s a direct attack on free speech and democratic government. This tired and worn-out Conservative Government needs to stand down before it does more damage.

#unethical

[1] https://www.history.com/news/why-are-they-called-the-dog-days-of-summer

[2] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66086671

[3] https://www.local.gov.uk/parliament/briefings-and-responses/economic-activity-public-bodies-overseas-matters-second-reading

Why do politics?

One reason has a long history. It’s basically, sitting on your hands, complaining about others, and doing nothing means that you are likely to be managed or governed by people of poor ability. Stepping-up and trying to change a situation at least puts to bed that passive abdication. Now, you might fail but that failure is no disgrace, if your intent is honest. At least you have had a go.

Another somewhat more appealing reason is to know someone who has done some good. Achieved something worthwhile. To have a mentor, or admiration for a person who has made the best of what they have and made a real difference to their community, it’s optimistic, it’s positive.

Let’s not be too cynical, there are good politicians. If there wasn’t we would be in an even bigger mess than we are now. Let’s face it, the people who become politicians, in a democracy, have the undesirable flaws and admirable qualities that most of society exhibits.

For me, this starts with reading “Penhaligon”, Annette Penhaligon book[1] about her husband, David Penhaligon. There’s a story to tell. A West Country MP who fought tirelessly for his constituents.

Then, naturally, there’s the Member of Parliament (MP) who is responsible for me first taking-up community political activism. He was newly elected and fresh faced at the time. The MP for Yeovil in Somerset from June 1983 to May 2001, namely Paddy Ashdown.

I was living in Cheltenham in Gloucestershire when Ashdown came to a public meeting at the Pittville Pump Room[2]. He spoke fluently about becoming an MP and some of the ridiculous idiosyncratic nonsense of Parliament. His message was that British politics is time-consuming and frustrating but if you want to bring about change – get involved.

So, in Cheltenham I first started stuffing leaflets through letterboxes and knocking on doors. About, 40-years have gone by since that encounter with the MP for Yeovil.

This weekend, I got my walking boots on. I visited parts of the Somerset town of Frome that I’d never seen before. A wide range of different streets, each with a different history. From restored historic buildings to new housing estates there’s a surprising variety of different lifestyles in a small town.

That’s one of the spinoffs of political activism. I get to visit and explore places that I’d otherwise never get to know. It’s a good way of broadening the mind. With social media’s influence it’s all too easy to get locked into simple stereotypes, artificial divisions, and primitive arguments. Forget that nonsense. Real streets with real people are much more interesting and much more varied.

Yes, you will meet people that are disagreeable but believe me, they are the minority. If you don’t want dumb politicians, and ideas thrusts upon us that don’t represent us then get out and be active. Every little can count.

[1] https://www.waterstones.com/book/penhaligon/annette-penhaligon/9780747506164

[2] https://cheltenhamtownhall.org.uk/visit-us/pittville-pump-room/

Getting smaller

We are on an unstoppable rollercoaster.

We don’t use the word miniaturisation much. I wonder why? Everyday we take for granted incredibly powerful handheld computing machines. They are only possible because of miniaturisation.

If digital signal processing was your thing in the 1970s, it would have involved several heavy cabinets of electronics. Lots of chunky circuit boards and a reliable way of removing all the heat they generated. As an example, there’s a nice dusty relict of a Cray computer[1] in the Science Museum in London. Later, I’ll read this again on a popular handheld device that has innumerable functions. Just as powerful.

This week, in 2007 the first iPhone was launched[2]. With a reasonably sized touch screen and a camera, it was launched with lots of hype. Rapidly this device started to change not only the marketplace for phones and cameras but the way we live, work and play.

I wasn’t a first adopter. At the time, I think I was faithful to Nokia. But somewhere in a cupboard, I still have an iPhone 3G, the successor to the first iPhone. 16-years on, it feels like there was never a time when we didn’t have the iPhone, or one of its competitors.

Miniaturisation has squeezed capable and flexible digital computing into small spaces. It’s made it possible to concentrate multiple functions into one device. The sheer convenience of that has crushed the non-professional camera marketplace. Streaming music has superseded traditional media, like tape and disks, almost to the point of their extinction.

The societal implications of this technological transformation are much talked and written about but maybe read by few. It’s fascinating to speculate if we have come to the end of Moore’s law[3]. That’s the empirical relationship that seems to hold for semiconductors. So far, Moore’s prediction has held-up well for the semiconductor industry. As the density of semiconductors doubles about every two years, so nothing ever stands still.

We might shrug our shoulders and carry on as if nothing has changed. Or just not care to look at this phenomenon, thinking its irrelevant to the important political machinations of the day. However, the impact of the steps that have led to more and more dependency on personal devices is something we should be concerned about. There’s little, or no possibility of reversion back to more manual ways of doing business. We have been captured by the convenience of affordable internet connected handhelds.

Decarbonisation is the big policy of the day. Miniaturisation is a two-edged sword in this respect. More people, holding more devices, in the billions, which are regularly superseded by the next upgrade all has a downside. Not only that but networks and massive file server farms backing-up the internet as they hungerly consume ever more energy. Thousands of new satellites mean instant connection on any part of the globe.

We are on an unstoppable rollercoaster. We think we have a choice but we don’t.

[1] https://www.computerhistory.org/revolution/supercomputers/10/7

[2] The first iPhone Release Date: 29 June 2007.

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law

Three Decades

There are a couple of events that have reverberated over the last three decades.

1993 started with Bill Clinton taking his place as the 42nd President of the United States. So, you might say change was in the wind in that year.

History doesn’t repeat but there are changes that give the impression of a pattern. In 30-years, our daily lives have transformed dramatically. Technology has accelerated to a point where there isn’t much that it doesn’t touch.

Subscribing to the notion that there are cycles that rise and fall over the decades there are similarities between now and then. There are plenty of opposites too.

Early in 1993, the Bank of England lowered interest rates to 6%. This was the lowest rate available since 1978. Now, we have bank interest rates heading in the other direction and heading for 6%. The biggest political issue in that year was unemployment. Today, the situation has flipped. There are recruiters who can’t find the people the British economy needs.

What’s analogous is that the Conservative Government of the day was in deep trouble. There seemed to be a future Labour Government in the waiting room. The Conservative Prime Minister (PM) of the time, John Major was unpopular, and the polls showed the public mood was gloomy.

Strangely, there was slight indications that the economic situation was gradually improving. The end of the 1990s recession was becoming real. The conservatives must have felt heartened by the US Presidential election campaign theme declaring it’s “The economy, stupid[1].”

On the ground the daggers were out for John Major. Parliamentary byelections in Newbury and Christchurch were resoundingly won by the Liberal Democrats. The Conservative government did not benefit in popularity from the economy coming out of recession. Then inflation was coming down. It hit 1.3% in May 1993. Consider that with what is happening with the inflation rate that is hanging around now.

There are a couple of events that have reverberated over the last three decades.

One was the formation of the UK Independence Party (UKIP). Support for leaving the European Union (EU) was taking a shape and form that would lead to political change. It didn’t seem like it at the time. There was an element of the movement that was purely protest coming from cantankerous and disgruntled Conservatives.

The other was John Major’s disastrous “Back to Basics” campaign. If ever a British political campaign was misjudged that, was it. The campaign exposed an unpopular and split political party to ridicule and gave cartoonists and satirists a huge boost.

The current Conservative PM, Rishi Sunak hasn’t quite made that error – yet. However, his simple shopping list approach is creating a hostage to fortune. The direction of travel has similarities to 1993. Will Rishi Sunak survive the coming General Election?

The jury is out on that one. I’d like to say – no. The economy may soon slide into recession but it maybe underlying unpopularity that is the greater deciding factor.

[1] A phrase that was coined by James Carville in 1992.