Category: Travel

Shiny silver

Daily writing prompt
If you were forced to wear one outfit over and over again, what would it be?
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If I remember righty, it’s a Seinfeld routine: in the future everyone will be wearing the same outfit. That shiny silver clothing so beloved of pulp fiction comics and SiFi series. Alien races will only ever see humans as being wrapped in tight body suites.

Except for the static burns occurring when brushing swiftly across a nylon carpet, I’d go for the crew of Alpha. That’s Space 1999[1] for those who missed the plywood sets of 1980’s TV. They seemed to have a dress code that made best use of their limited resources on the Moon.

A light grey Commander John Koenig outfit would be future proof.

[1] https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0072564/

Impact of Speculation

The sadness of the loss of live and the suffering of air crash victims’ families, must be respected. On 12th June, Air India’s London Gatwick bound flight AI171 crashed after take-off from Ahmedabad airport. Only one passenger walked away from this catastrophe. Additionally, there were fatalities on the ground as the Boeing 787 aircraft came down in a built-up area.

My heartfelt condolences to those connected with this tragic fatal accident.

The technical accident investigation is well underway. In time, a probable cause for this accident will be determined. This will be published and available to all. As per the international arrangements of ICAO Annex 13 a report will be published. Organisations, with appropriate expertise, will carefully sift through the evidence to establish a sequence of events. This is not a matter of establishing blame. It’s a process of determining what happened with the aim of preventing it from happening again.

Meanwhile, the widespread reporting of the accident can only offer speculation as to the details of who, what, where, when and how and why. There are facts. The time, place and the people involved. Media interviews, with whatever pictures and video recording there are dominate the public domain. However, this is far from the volume of information the accident investigators will handle. They will have access to every nut and bolt, every document, every recording.

After another aircraft accident, back in August last year I wrote: Speculation is a natural human response. When faced with a paucity of information we often put together what we know and then make a best guess as to what happened or what might happen. However, wise or unwise it’s not possible to stop speculation.

In the case of flight AI171 the global media speculation has been, and is, of a new order of magnitude. Normally, the authorities caution against giving too much weight to early conjecture. This is prudent in that the obvious is often not as obvious as it might first seem. Accident investigation can be like putting the pieces of a complex jigsaw together. Deliberately and with great care.

What has been surprising in this case is the intensity of the speculation related to this accident both through traditional and social media. The proliferation of experts offering opinions has reached a new high. Until conflict and war grabbed the headlines everyday a novel theory, or a variation of a theory has been offered. Each one chasing credibility and expanding on limited sources.

Let’s not be pious. I’m not immune from this need to fill a void. My own reasonably well-informed theories float around in my head, but I question my senses in sharing them with others. It’s not a fear of being wrong, as I might be, no, more a fear of cluttering up a confusing mass of information to an even greater extent. Piling theories on top of theories.

Can we have too much of “experts” offering their opinions? Some will be trustworthy and considered, and others will not. How far is it reasonable to stretch what little is known into detailed stories of possible cause and effect?

How is the average person going to tell the difference between sound reasoning and imaginative nonsense? This problem was brought home to me in a recent conversation. When a newspaper revelation is told to me as a “fact” when I know it isn’t, then I see the dangers in excessive speculation.

This may not matter so much to me. In so far as it affects me. However, to an air crash victims’ family this not considerate. To be led to thinking that the cause of an accident is generally known, when it isn’t, that’s disrespectful. It’s the downside of speculation. Not something that is ever going to stop, it’s true. What some keyboard warriors need to think about is the impact of their wild guesses or prejudices.

POST 1: Even reputable publishers latch on to theories that are at best well intentioned and at worse just flying a kite. Air India crash: Early speculation points to possible dual-engine failure | Engineering and Technology Magazine

POST 2: To be fair this YouTube commentator does a good job at making it clear what is fact and what is not https://youtu.be/dIgnR0zw3FU

F2F with a machine

Daily writing prompt
Describe one of your favorite moments.
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Coming face to face with a Cyberman. It’s walking towards me. The crowd is clearing. I’m directly in its path. It’s got an evil stare. A dramatic sound fills the air. I don’t want to be converted into a mindless machine. Help!

Hang on. I’m standing on the floor of the Royal Albert Hall in London. It’s full to the brim with excited people. It’s hot. It’s August. How did this happen to me?

To make sense of this I can see an orchestra on stage pounding out a science fiction theme. Yes, I’m at the Doctor Who BBC Prom[1] a year ago. That was fun moment. Quite a few in fact.

[1] https://www.bbc.co.uk/events/e5drn3

Enhancing Transport Safety

There’re claims that Artificial Intelligence (AI) will make transport safer. It’s to put a positive spin on the introduction of AI. Implying that existing safety deficiencies can be addressed with the power of AI.

It’s difficult to disagree with this simple assertion. There’s a list of risks that continue to be troubling. With directed design effort there are functions that AI can perform that mean it can have an advantage over conventional systems. With good design, no doubt high performing systems can be constructed.

In aviation, for example, if I consider the top five fatality risks, there’s a persistence of specific categories. We never seem to get away from loss of control in-flight (LOC-I) being high on that grim list. Runway related issues persist, and the hardy perennial of mid-air collision remains. Over the years progress has been made addressing controlled flight into terrain (CFIT), but that category of destructive events never disappears.

It’s fascinating to see that the industry thinks that AI itself is a risk[1]. High probability but low impact. This is considering a broad description of risk rather than a safety focus. Here the concern is related to the difficulties of practical implementation of this new technology.

Marketing people will big up the possibilities brought about by AI. This is what’s going on in relation to the most recent mid-air collision fatal accident. With sound justification given how crude elements of air traffic management are in specific locations.

We will never entirely displace “see and avoid” as a means of collision avoidance. Scanning the horizon looking for other air users. In my opinion, relying on this technique in relatively busy traffic areas is unwise, to say the least. This is where airborne AI assistants have much operational safety potential. Sucking up multiple information sources and processing masses of information to give accurate and instant advice. Such systems can be designed to give real-time updates not only to improve situation awareness but give avoiding action guidance, or even automated responses.

Let’s get back to the general assertion that AI will make aviation safer. On this one I’d be more cautious. For example, looking at LOC-I incidents and accidents there’s a complex mix of causal factors, and circumstantial factors. In addition, there’s the complexity of potential recovery actions too. Solving problems in 4-dimentions whatever the weather, whatever any damage incurred and however pilots react. This is where the probability numbers start to stack up.

That catch all disciplines “human factors” makes outcomes particularly difficult to calculate. Accidents are known where pilots and automation fight each other to produce bad outcomes.

AI is a machine. It will speedily crunch numbers in a mechanical manner. An extremely advanced manner but without emotion or, yet, not matching the imaginative capabilities of the human brain. Or for that matter the sophistication of human senses.

Would exceptional capable AI have saved Swissair Flight 111[2], for example? Sadly, I think not. On the day, likely an automated airborne system would have made the same decisions as the pilots. Decision making without the sense of precisely how the aircraft fire was developing would still have been hamstrung. I could raise other cases too.

Will AI make transport safer. In part. Not as a universal cure all.

[1] https://www.iata.org/en/publications/economics/reports/risks-2025-brief/

[2] https://www.bst-tsb.gc.ca/eng/rapports-reports/aviation/1998/a98h0003/a98h0003.html

The Evolution of Travel

Nothing is stationary. As our solar system circulates the milky way and everything we know is in motion. Nature abhors the stationary. Movement is a part of all living things. Even on dead worlds, like Mars, dust devils whiz across barren surfaces to get caught on camera.

The more we move the more we change. History’s long tail shows that the rooting of people to a place is a temporary affair. What’s changed is our means of locomotion. In the stone age great distances were traversed but not in a hurry. Speed is a modern acquisition.

It is modern. Where I live now is, and has been, a route from East to West and vice versa for much more than a thousand years. For most of that time either our feet or horses where the means of locomotion. Time had to be set aside for perilous and uncomfortable journeys

Travel is a wonderful experience. Even if the time spent between A and B is tedious, draining and eventful in an unwanted way. Adventure beckons in a manner that has always overcome the inconvenience. Certain airlines would never have succeeded if comfort was a must.

In the 17th century getting from London to Bath was a major undertaking. A speed of 30 or 40 miles per day on rain-soaked roads of poor repair there was need to rest up and take a journey in stages. It’s these habits that have shaped the view of traditional England. Gone are the toll houses and the highwaymen but the routes and public houses remain. Well, fewer and fewer of them as business is tough[1].

Travel is that perennial hope, that there is a silver lining to every cloud, that good times are only just around the corner. That in travel we will see, hear and experience something new and to our benefit. It’s not a free lunch. Effort must be made to reap this benefit. It’s there in the word. It’s the Norman-French origins of travel. Travail is to work and labour.

Ironically, although there are exceptions, modern society is trying to make travel as little effort as is possible. Even to the extent of automating vehicles when the demand for such innovations is minuscule. It’s not increased comfort or convenience that’s the aim. No, it’s to dissect time into even smaller parts so that people do not “waste” time travelling.

In an age before concrete and steel carved a path through the English countryside, a journey was a venture to be planned and considered with trepidation. A land of fields and meadows, rivers and streams, and notoriously changeable weather.

Comparisons with today do fall by the wayside. Towards the end of the 17th century the population of the whole of the country was only about 5 million. Creeping industrialisation was drawing people into the cities. Change was on the way.

[1] Hard Times of Old England https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MoWEiq_Z0aw

A Day at the Bath and West Agricultural Show

It’s a part of my childhood. It’s fascinating to see how it has changed over the decades. There’s hardly a year go by when I don’t go to at least one agricultural show in the UK.

Last year, I visited the Lincoln show and the Newbury show for the first time. Most of the summer rural shows in the UK have a long history that is kept going by an Agricultural Society. The bigger ones have dedicated show sites and some permanent buildings. The smaller ones can be a large field that’s set aside for a couple of days a year. Each show reflects the nature of the farming, the crops, the animals, in its region.

This Friday, my day out was a trip to the Bath and West show[1] in Somerset. The show site is large. Spread over a south facing gently sloping hillside. To the south of the town of Shepton Mallet, at the base of Prestleigh Hill.

That’s my family connection. My mother grew-up on a small farm in Prestleigh. It’s not named on the map anymore as a couple of the buildings are now dwellings. Yew Tree Farm was situated on a dangerous bend on the main A371 road where traffic must veer right as it comes down the hill. The alternative being to hit a wall and end up in the farmyard. If I remember correctly, my grandad got free tickets to the Bath and West as they used one of his fields for a car park. As children we would hop over the fence to go straight to the show.

This year, the ground was as hard as rock underfoot. Spring has been unusually dry. There’s more dust than mud. That’s good for the show. There have been years when the wind and rain have swept the exposed show site and blown down tents and made mini rivers. Making welly boots mandatory.

What has changed? Although this annual event is predominantly a showcase for West Country food and farming it’s gone beyond that formula to become an atypical half-term family day trip. It’s no longer a place where local farmers strike deals with machinery salesman or learn about the latest breeds or cropping methods. That post-war image of mucky tractors and trailers turning up in droves is for vintage postcards.

What’s nice is that there’s something for everyone with an interest in the English countryside. Beekeepers, cider markers (and drinkers), cheese makers, traction engine enthusiasts, rare breeds, heavy horses along with tea and cake in the WI tent.

Sheep started big this year. Cattle and pigs less so. Again, the word is enthusiasts. Breeds rare and commercial ones all cleaned up for display and judging. Handlers, young and old, parading their animals for picky judges to prod and score. Then colourful rosettes displayed with pride.

It’s not a cheap day out for townsfolk and county people anymore. Car parking might be free but the price of entry and just about anything on-site can quickly rack up. Everywhere, even in a field, we have become a cashless society. A tap here, a tap there, no longer do we dig into our pockets for loose change.

For the good weather and crowds, I expect this year’s 3-day event will be evaluated as a great success. Keeping the tradition going.

[1] https://www.bathandwest.com/royal-bath-and-west-show

Peaceful Border

It’s superfluous to say so. Canada is not the US, and the US is not Canada.

It quickly becomes clear. I’ve been fortunate to visit places east-west and north south. Although not the far snowbound North. The two countries do share geography. Rocky Mountains stretch across the North America. From British Columbia to New Mexico. The Great Plains span North America. A stark contrast to the mountains, as a huge expanse. In the East, the rolling landscape of the Appalachian Mountains runs from Newfoundland to Alabama.

It’s not the same with social and economic geography or history. A profound difference has been forged by Canada’s citizens over a couple of hundred years.

If we look back to the late 17th and early 18th centuries the new world was a hugely different place than it is now. Britain, France, Spain, and their allies were fighting over vast territories. European conflicts translated into competition and trade wars. Eventually, America colonialist brought about a revolution, so there would be no need for royalty, aristocracy, or an imposed church. Rejecting their British masters, even if they did keep their system of laws.

At the start of the 19th century, the US did invade Canada with a couple of conflicts. So, the idea that the US may wish to annex a part, or all of Canada is not entirely new. I’m going to have to read up on the Battle of Stoney Creek of 1813. It seems a namesake of mine played a pivotal role in preventing the US from taking Canada[1]. No relation – I’m (almost) sure. Irish heritage.

My assumption is that US President Trump is doing what he has done times before. Mark out an extreme position from which then to shape future negotiations. That’s not so mad as it might appear. It’s not nice when considering the cordial relationships that have characterised so much of the recent past. Kicking at the sides of an ally.

Stretching over thousands of kilometres (or miles if you prefer), the boarder between the US and Canada is one of the most peaceful in the world. To reignite conflicts of a couple of hundred years ago is not a wise option. I’m sure Canada could call upon a great deal of support if the worst-case scenario were to prevail.

Mutuality may not be fashionable. It needs to be made fashionable, again. The notion of a win-win scenario where both parties benefit, it’s real, it’s not mythical. Both US and Canada are sovereign. It’s best for the world that it stays that way.

[1] https://www.biographi.ca/en/bio/vincent_john_7E.html

Avoiding Contrails and Enhancing Operations

Here I’m expanding on my earlier words on aircraft Contrails.

Airspace is a busy place. It’s most busy over Europe and the US. Over the oceans there’s more room, although on certain routes, like the North Atlantic, there’s plenty of daily air traffic.

Those who manage the airspace are primarily concerned with ensuring that aircraft collisions do not occur. The impact of mid-air collisions is devastating. There’re few people in aviation who can forget the events of an evening in July 2002. Over Überlingen, Germany[1], 71 people lost their lives at a time when the sky was not busy at all.

Managing the use of airspace is more than collision avoidance. Flying is perpetually concerned with the weather. What’s it doing, how is it changing and is it a hazard? It’s not just the safety of flying that demands up-to-date meteorological information. Knowing about the winds can enable more efficient operations, and that’s less fuel use for a given route.

Large thunderstorms need to be avoided. Regions of the world (example: intertropical convergence zone) make this a dynamic challenge. Manoeuvres may be planned but flight crews must be ready to act based on the information they have, like weather radar.

Turbulence is another phenomenon to be avoided, if possible. This can occur in clear air. It can be difficult to detect. Which explains the unpleasant examples that hit the News now and then[2].

Back in 2010, aviation had a reminder that avoidance encompassed any hazardous airspace. That was when an unpronounceable volcano in Iceland was spewing out ash at high altitudes. Plumes of volcanic ash, if ingested into aircraft engines, can cause major difficulties.

I’ve written these words to emphasise that the avoidance of contrail formation cannot be done as a stand-along consideration. It becomes one factor in a whole mix of factors.

Avoidance of contrail formation is about considering the mechanism that cause them to form. Clearly, the warmer the air is the harder it is for a contrail to form. The more humidity there is in the air, the easier it is for a contrail to form. Outside Air Temperature (OAT) and atmospheric humidity vary at each altitude. That relationship interacts with the aircraft inflight, and the outcome may be different for each aircraft type.

At least one academic study[3] says that adjustments of aircraft altitude of around 2000 ft could have a useful effect on contrail formation. That’s good to know but let’s not forget that Reduced Vertical Separation Minima (RVSM) [4] means a vertical spacing of 1000 ft in busy airspace.

My take on this fascinating subject is that there both a tactical and operational approach that can be practically taken by aviation.

At the tactical level, airlines can factor contrail avoidance into flight planning. Creating an algorithm that will weigh all the relevant flight factors. Improved sources of accurate and timely meteorological data and predictions will be needed.

At the operational level, it’s down to the flight crews to take advantage of environmental conditions as the opportunity arises. Much as dealing with turbulence, that is when safety and operational rules permit. To change altitude when its beneficial, computational help is likely to be needed. Over the ocean, air-ground communications systems may need to be further improved. An altitude change that avoids contrail formation but increases fuel consumption would not be a sustainable solution.

These computational tasks may well be well suited to machine learning. A useful application of artificial intelligence. I can imagine a cockpit weather radar display with a new set of symbology that indicates a low probability contrail formation zone ahead.

[Back in the 1990s, I worked on RVSM when the ARINC organisation was creating international standards. Safely increasing traffic in the North Atlantic region. Additionally, I participated in the certification of Future Air Navigation System (FANS) 1/A for use over the ocean. FANS led to more efficient aircraft operation due to shorter flying times and decreased fuel burn.]

POST: Looks like data crunching is underway Flight plans, but greener: The ICCT and Google’s mission to refine the Travel Impact Model – International Council on Clean Transportation

[1] https://www.bfu-web.de/EN/Publications/FinalReports/2002/Report_02_AX001-1-2_Ueberlingen_Report.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=1

[2] https://www.flightglobal.com/safety/turkish-777-rapidly-descended-during-crews-aggressive-response-to-turbulence-encounter/162937.article

[3] https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/195294/small-altitude-changes-could-contrail-impact/

[4] https://skybrary.aero/articles/reduced-vertical-separation-minima-rvsm

Understanding Contrails

Crisscrossing the sky, as I look up on a clear day, there are civil aircraft going about their business. People travelling across the Atlantic or coming back or on a day trip to Glasgow.

These shiny pinpoints of light in motion, set against a blue sky, are all the more visible because of the vapour trails they leave behind. Aircraft speed through the rarified atmosphere to leave a momentary trail as evidence of their presence.

Up with the aircraft in flight are natural clouds. Up at 30,000 feet there can be Cirrus clouds[1]. There might not be much air pressure at that altitude but there’s enough moisture to support cloud formation. The word “wispy” sums them up.

Aircraft create condensation trails that are known as contrails. How the English language likes to shorten. They are not mysterious or generate with evil intent in mind. It’s simple physics.

In my bathroom, with hot water gushing from the shower, moisture is the air. When that moist air meets a cold surface, like a window, condensation is sure to be seen. Airbourne it’s not so different. Hot emissions from powerful jet engines shooting out into a cold low-pressure environment and guess what?

Typically, contrails don’t last long. If there’s appreciable wind at high altitude, then they get dispersed quickly. Not only that but the icy temperatures up there soon return things to the status-quo. There are days, when the air is still, that the sky can become a crisscross of contrails where dispersion is more like a gentle merging.

The theory goes that the cumulative impact of lots of high-altitude flying is like the impact of additional cloud formation. It’s water vapour after all. It’s known, high altitude clouds can contribute to the greenhouse effect.

The point I’m getting to here is that lots of flying contributes to climate change. Primarily because of the burning of significant amounts of fossil fuel. As a secondary consideration there’s the issue of contrails across the globe.

This leads to the question – can their formation be avoided? Even, is there something useful to be gained in doing so. Trials and research are trying to establish the answer to these questions[2].

Initially, contrail avoidance sounds like it should be relatively easy to do. However, like so many good proposals it’s not so easy. Change needs to involve air traffic management, flight operations and international regulators.

First the atmospheric conditions need to be detected or predicted in a given location and then an avoidance needs to be planned and undertaken in coordination with everyone flying at high altitude at a given time. Lost of data to crunch.

It’s possible, in oceanic airspace, a dynamic aircraft system could perform this avoidance function. It would be an interesting design challenge for an avionics company to take up.

#Net Zero #SustainableAviation

[1] https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/learn-about/weather/types-of-weather/clouds/high-clouds/cirrus

[2] https://news.aa.com/esg/climate-change/contrail-avoidance/

Relationship with the EU

Monday, Monday[1]. It’s a wonderful 60s song. Harmonies and mood are perfect. I wonder if the harmonies and mood will be perfect for the Prime Minister (PM) on Monday. Already the Sunday Press are setting the stage for Monday’s performance.

Reset, recalibration, reheat, rekindle, re-whatever. It’s a moment when relations between the UK and the European Union (EU) can make realistic progress[2]. In world full of uncertainty (could be a song in that one), for once the direction of travel is a constructive and positive.

I think the word “deal” is getting overplayed. Indications are that there’s no fundamental shift from Brexit meaning Brexit, as one former PM liked to say. In fact, the current PM is being highly cautious in the light of his Party’s reading of the latest opinion polls. For no sane reason I can think of, the swivel-eyed loons of the far-right are making hay.

It’s astonishing me how dim-witted the Conservative Party is in objecting to something when they don’t even know, for sure, what it is. Mind-blowing. And the rum cult of Reform Party doing the same with extra bile. What a load of prehistoric fruit loops.

Brexit supporters are spreading misinformation, again. Saying that UK has no influence. It’s true, the UK doesn’t have votes in the European Council or Parliament, but significant influence can be exercised on standards, and regulatory guidance, nevertheless. A better “deal” can bring much greater influence. Absolutely vital in the digital world, and for the UK, a country with a services-based economy.

Brexit has cost the UK dearly. The UK Treasury would have billions more in its coffers if the 2016 referendum had never taken place. The standard of living of every person in the UK is lower because of Brexit bungling. Ideally, that great mistake is an event to be written up for the history books and then forgotten.

On top of the above, uncharacteristic moves in the US, with Trump tariffs there’s nasty hit at the UK’s future prosperity. There couldn’t be a better time to repair relationships with the UK’s nearest neighbours. The countries with which we share most of our long history.

Even for those on the political right, practically, the EU is never going away, so until the day the UK rejoins the block, it’s wise to have the best possible relationship in all matters. Goods, services and people need to connect as a case of mutual benefit.

It’s time for hope. An optimistic tone should be set. A smile. Let’s hope we are singing Monday, Monday so good to me, Monday morning was all I hoped it would be. Naturally, that there be no crying, come Monday evening.

[1] https://genius.com/The-mamas-and-the-papas-monday-monday-lyrics

[2] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-uk-eu-reset-trade-deal-starmer-b2752285.html