ITV Debate

For anyone interested in public affairs watching a debate of candidates for Prime Minister (PM) should be a pleasure #ITVdebate. It’s the summer heat. Pleasure it certainly wasn’t. It was a formulaic event that was enough to make milk curdle. The toxic blue-on-blue punch-up was uninspiring. A college debating society might have made better peak time TV.

The matter of who will be the British PM in only 7 weeks’ time is important. As the first question put it, we are at the start of an actual cost of living crisis. Unfortunately, Sunday night a lot of fairy tale economics were on show. Rubishing the past took front stage. All Conservative candidates said they would not have the caretaker PM Boris Johnson in a new cabinet.

All candidates vaguely rattled on about Brexit opportunities. When asked if the winner needed to call for a General Election to consolidate their mandate they all said – no.

Tom Tugendhat MP stood on a hill shouting “clean start,” but it was as if no one was listening. He said he was in mortal fear of the leader of the opposition. He shifted around in an uneasy manner.

Liz Truss MP wanted to emphasise that she was “honest” but admitted to not being “slick” as she sideswiped the other candidates. Here neo-Thatcher stance is thinning as quickly as it arrived. Word of the night was – bold.

“Time for a change” was Kemi Badenoch MP’s mantra. Being brave and asking for unity are all designed to create good vibes. The Twittersphere has dubbed her #badenough as if to mark that as the criteria for winning. To target the giveaway candidates Badenoch said there’s “no easy option”.

As the front running Rishi Sunak MP, former Chancellor, got the most kick backs from other candidates. “I want to be honest” and responsible were his themes. He put the stress on prudent conservatism, a phenomenon that may not exist anymore.

Penny Mordaunt MP was all about saying she’s a team player but not acting like one. Asking for an innovative approach and that the system is broken is appropriate. Sadly, filling the vacuum with nothing much hasn’t helped her case. She’s the spend, spend, spend candidate. She told a fib about the state of the polls too.

Robot like, Truss wanted it known that she has “served” and will stand up to Putin. She stressed her legacy of trade deals and getting things done. Her project fear was to mention the inflationary spiral of the 1970s. Truss and Mordaunt can across as arrogant and patronising by calling for change but being unclear what change is needed.

Badenoch was not ashamed of her role in Government. Strangely for a politician she hit out at the others by saying “talking is easy” Tugendhat is a fan of nuclear power and never misses an opportunity to mention his military service.

Sunak was the only one to come across as relaxed. Open shirts are his uniform. He was unshaken as he skilfully batted back all the balls bowled directly at him. If there was a winner – he was it.

70s

There are echoes of the past in what’s happening now. One of these echoes is the exclamation that it’s getting more and more like the seventies. It’s a reaction to the turbulence and uncertainty that is all around. Especially when the spectre of inflation and recession is looming over us.

It’s easy to have mixed feelings about that decade. It can be said that the sixties were more revolutionary when it comes to the explosion of progressive attitudes and societal change.

The seventies weren’t a homogeneous period. In Britain, those turbulent 10-years culminated in a major political transformation as Thatcherism kicked-off in 1979. Romanising the seventies is foolish. That’s particularly the case when drawing comparisons between the here and now.

Life expectancy is one indicator[1]. The enormous improvement since the 70s is self-evident. What’s concerning about the situation is being put in jeopardy by a considerable slowing in these figures in recent years.

This chimes with lived experience. I remember pubs so full of smoke that the walls were stained, and a fog hung over the bar. Health and Safety legislation too. Car seatbelts and motorcycle crash helmets all helped reduce early fatalities. Workplaces have improved dramatically. Shivers run down my spin when I consider some of the toxic chemicals that were used in engineering and agriculture.

No way should anyone sane want to go back to the full 70s experience. That’s not to say there are cultural highlights that made a positive contribution to life in the UK. Punk rock coinciding with the Queen’s jubilee created a world of colour and vitality that has been lacking in the 202os.

Star Wars fans will no doubt cite Star Wars. There were some dam good movies made in the 70s. I’m seeing the mirror ball rotating, as the music from Saturday Night Fever rings in my ears.

On the technology side it was the time when the ground was broken. Microsoft and Apple own their success to the availability of early digital “chips”. A degree of that came from the strides made as the Apollo programme forced the advancement of digital technology. The Cold War played its part too.

On a personal note, motorcycles played a pivotal role in my decade. Growing up in a rural community the importance of mobility cannot be undenied. It was fun. It was freedom. It was exciting. I’d watch, and sometime marshal at road racing, grass track and motocross meetings[2]. I’m only here because a mate pulled me out of the path of an oncoming Laverda[3] side car outfit at a grass track meeting near Mere.

From 1970, to the day 1980 arrived much changed. Summing it up there were better times ahead.

POST: There were better cars ahead too. But I still have affection for my bright red Sunbeam Imp Not a Mini but a Sunbeam Imp | Articles | Classic Motorsports

[1] https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/datasets/nationallifetablesunitedkingdomreferencetables

[2] https://www.acu.org.uk/

[3] https://laverda.club/

Overselling

Do you, like me get a bit fed-up with the constant stream of marketing speak in everyday life?

In this short article, I will explore new opportunities, showcase the state-of-the-art developments, and talk ground-breaking claptrap. Dynamic and comprehensive, this will rock your assumptions. Long-lasting valuable connection will be made tapping into a new global dimension. This is a chance of opening a window into an amazing array of innovative thinking. Unlock the immense range of possibilities for using super words used with passion to beef up drab and unsubstantial stuff. This is designed to deliver unprecedented levels of performance and power. Spearheading the drive to help everyone take bold decisions and make bold reforms.

I’ll stop before the page explodes. To be clear, I’m not making an argument for everyday communication to read like a legal textbook or a children’s annual but surely there’s a reasonable line to be drawn. Overselling anything has the habit of leading to disappointment. Regret creeps in after the realisation that accolades and exaggerations were only there to hook you like a fish. That’s the Brexit story in a nutshell.

Believe it or not, I’m not just talking about the on-going British Conservative party leadership elections.

Looking at my e-mail in-box there’s more than a few marketing e-mails that I should be unsubscribing. A quick review shows that the amount of useful information is likely to be less than tenth of what’s staring me in the face. The rule change from needing people to opt-in rather than opt-out of subscriptions hasn’t made a lot of difference to the stream of selling e-mails. I have a few bugbears that I’ll get off my chest. Bells ring whenever these words are used like confetti.

The overuse of the word “global” when often the context is far from global, is tedious. There’re about 200 countries, 1000s of languages and a huge range of cultural diversity in the world. Global is often used to signify a narrow band of technologically savvy suited and booted types. That’s far from the English dictionary meaning of the word. The term “world-class” is in the same league too.

Everything is “advanced,” it’s innovative and state-of-the-art. Pick up a 1970s car or computer brochure, and guess what? Everything is “advanced,” it’s innovative and state-of-the-art. These words are short cuts for the polish put on the new. Time being what it is, it never stands still. So, the cutting-edge of today becomes the amusing and “classic” of tomorrow. Wait long enough and it becomes “vintage”.

The word “bold” is doing the rounds too. It’s a dash of paint that gives the dull and boring the ability to stand out in public. Claim that something as bold and it doesn’t matter how many stupid things you do because they were bold. In many cases, the word means that the user was advised not to do something dangerously risky but they did it anyway. So take care when someones says they have: “taken bold decisions and made bold reforms.” Look at the small print. The word “grit” is in the same league too.

I admit that I’m one of the worst offenders when using the word “challenge.” It’s one of those convenient words that rolls off the tongue because its sounds more authoritative than saying “difficult”. Yes, it’s complex and nothing stays the same for long. For the sake of brevity, and not being bothered to say why change is hard, I’ll say it’s a challenge.

This blog has been curated just for you. For optimum impact in this ever-changing world, I’ll land a big full-stop here.

Fundamental schisms

Today, we have a UK Conservative Government running against a UK Conservative Government. Elections can be strange but this one is stranger than most. Even the rules for the election have been made-up as the process moves forward. Changing the rules is becoming a habit.  

Each candidate for British Prime Minister is pointing out the errors of the past and dire problems the country faces. With some, at the same time, sitting in a lame duck administration, these candidates are heralding how their personal qualities elevate them above the herd. How they are ready to lead. As if they had emerged from nowhere. As if a curtain can be drawn over Boris Johnson premiership.

When reporters ask about their record in the House of Commons, a quick sidestep is the most common approach. The general defence offered for our dire situation is that of quoting a list of global events. COVID, war and economic downturn. Yet we all know that these global events would have occurred whatever UK Government had been in power.

It’s like saying we have just travelled over an unmade-up road and then blaming the condition of the road for any damage done. That the driver, and political decision-makers in the country have no responsibility for the folly, harm, and pain of the last 7-years (2015-now). Yet, even as the road gets rougher those sitting next to the driver are trying to grab the steering wheel.

As bizarre as anything this Conservative Government limps on with a dominant parliamentary majority despite only commanding 44% of the votes cast back in 2019. As the turmoil continues under their watch, their national poll rating is sustaining a dip below 30% of the electorate.

This political whirlwind will not be stopped by shifting the political deckchairs. There are fundamental schisms within the Conservative party. It’s very evident from the camps being formed by the party candidates for Prime Minister. No new leader will be able to hold this fracture bunch together.

The Brexit Bolsheviks do not want to make peace. They see their roles are permanent revolution. They will always see the post-referendum era as work unfinished. It’s a partisan drive to a utopia of isolation. It’s the complete opposite to what the country needs. Confidence has truly been lost. In so many ways this Conservative Government has no legitimacy. The representatives in this British parliament have lost public confidence. It’s time for them to go.

Objects falling from the sky

In so far as I know, no person on the ground has been killed by an object falling from a commercial aircraft in flight. I’m happy to be corrected if that situation has changed. Strangely, in contrast there are plenty of reports of people falling from aircraft and being killed as a result[1]. Additionally, there are cases of parts shed by aircraft that subsequently contribute to an aircraft accident[2].

The most frequent reports of falling objects, in and around airports are not parts of an aircraft but that which is in the atmosphere all the time. Namely, ice. When it hits the ground in the form of a hailstorm it can be damaging. In flight, it can be seriously damaging to an aircraft.

What I’m writing about here are the third-party risks. That’s when an innocent individual finds themselves the target of an improbable event, some might call an act of God. Ice falls are rare. However, given the volume of worldwide air traffic there’s enough of them to be alert to the problem. As soon as ice accretes to create lumps bigger than a kilo there’s a real danger.

Can ice falls be prevented? Here again there’s no doubt some are because of poor maintenance or other preventable factors, but others are just nature doing its thing. Regulators are always keen to collect data on the phenomena[3]. It’s something that goes on in the background and where the resources allow there can even be follow-up investigations.

Near misses do make the newspaper headlines. The dramatic nature of the events, however rare, can be like a line from a horror movie[4]. Other cases are more a human-interest story than representing a great risk to those on the ground[5].

It’s worth noting that falling objects can be quite different from what they are first reported to be. That can be said about rare events in general.

I remember being told of one case where a sharp metal object fell into a homeowner’s garden. Not nice at all. The immediate reaction was to conclude it came from an aircraft flying overhead. Speculation then started a new story, and the fear of objects falling from aircraft was intensified.

Subsequently, an investigation found that this metal object had more humble terrestrial origins. In a nearby industrial estate a grinding wheel had shattered at highspeed sending debris flying into the air. Parts of which landed in the garden of the unfortunate near-by resident.

One lesson from this tale is that things may not always be as they first seem. Certainly, with falling objects, it’s as well to do an investigation before blaming an aircraft.  

POST 1: There’s a threat outside the atmosphere too. The space industries are ever busier. That old saying about “what goes up, must come down” is true of rockets and space junk. More a hazard to those on the ground, there is still the extreamly unlikly chance of an in-flight aircraft getting hit Unnecessary risks created by uncontrolled rocket reentries | Nature Astronomy

POST 2: EASA Safety Information Bulletin Operations SIB No.: 2022-07 Issued: 28 July 2022, Subject: Re-Entry into Earth’s Atmosphere of Space Debris of Rocket Long March 5B (CZ-5B). This SIB is issued to raise awareness on the expected re-entry into Earth’s atmosphere of the large space object.

[1] https://nypost.com/2019/07/03/man-nearly-killed-by-frozen-body-that-fell-from-plane-is-too-traumatized-to-go-home/

[2] http://concordesst.com/accident/englishreport/12.html

[3] https://www.caa.co.uk/Our-work/Make-a-report-or-complaint/Ice-falls/

[4] https://metro.co.uk/2017/02/16/10kg-block-of-ice-falls-from-plane-and-smashes-through-mans-garage-roof-6453658/

[5] https://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/national-ice-block-falls-aircraft-and-smashes-familys-garden-1078494

He’s still in post!

How to reflect on the week’s national news? A tumultuous flurry of activity reached a peak not often seen. Mass media speculation saturated the bandwidth available. A collapse of support was expected but sequence of events was anything but certain.

Just for fun I’ll start with a metaphor. It was like a series of steppingstones to cross a turbulent and toxic river. Once the political will had been assembled to cross the river the course of events kicked off. Such a moment is difficult to define even if the outward signs were the first big Ministerial resignations. It took a couple of big beasts to take the risk on making the first steps.

The illusive steppingstones shimmered in the media spotlight. Some provided a workable path to the destination. Others appeared and disappeared as opinions were as plentiful as stars in the galaxy. At any moment the turbulent and toxic river could have consumed the whole enterprise.

In the end, step by step, “clownfall” happened. It’s a nice composite word that sums up the fall of Prime Minister Boris Johnson. At least it’s a break from the series of this “gate” or that “gate” sagas that were coined.

Going back to my metaphor, after all the stormy kerfuffle a lectern was erected outside Number 10 Downing Street. It’s as if a pontoon had been erected in the middle of the river. The PM nonchalantly breezed out of the imposing black door of Number 10. He then proceeded to pontificate about his great achievements and only grudgingly admitted that he had to go.

It might normally be expected that the moment had come to leave. Walking down Downing Street to pass through the gates, wave to the crowd and not return, unless invited. In a normal situation this would be the moment that the person designated as a deputy would take over and manage a transition period. That a line would be drawn, and the business of Government would continue under a temporary management. Not so.

We now have the bizarre and dangerous situation where a discredited man continues to hold the post of British Prime Minister. It’s as strange as it gets. Everyone knows that he is a lame duck leader holding up a lame duck Government. It’s barmy.

NOTE 1: Monday 18th July, Conservative MPs voted to keep the zombie Government in power. With not one Conservative MP breaking ranks to vote against Boris Johnson. Yet, all the candidates to replace him say they would never have him in their Government.

NOTE 2: Boris Johnson’s ‘disgraceful’ plan for 30 new peers | News | The Times

Well, don’t say I didn’t warn: Boris Johnson poised to go ahead with resignation honours list | Boris Johnson | The Guardian

Social media and aviation safety. Part 2.

Reports of aviation accidents and incidents and occurrence reports vary greatly in quantity and quality. Improvements have been made, as legislation has demanded basic data be recorded and retained.

Nevertheless, the one-line narrative is still with us. These reports are frustrating for safety analysts. If a bland statement about an aviation occurrence is received a couple of weeks after an event it can be almost impossible to classify. The good that social media can do is to supplement official information.

In most cases, mobile phone video taken by a passenger or onlooker can be checked for veracity. It needs to have the characteristics that confirm that it was taken at the time and place of the event it depicts. Photographs often have location, picture size, resolution, and device information.

It’s as well to recognise that this work can’t be taken for granted. There is work for aviation safety analysts to do verifying information. Images can be edited by effects that create an exagerated sense of drama.

Image copywrite does have to be considered. Professional photographers make it clear that their work is protected. This is often stamped on the material in some manner.

Impromptu videoing of an aviation incident, that may involve the person taking the video changes its status once its launched on social media. At least that is my understanding of the legal paperwork that few people ever read, namely the common clauses of End-User License Agreements. 

So, advice might be, to try to avoid copyright infringement it’s always a good idea to credit the source of the material used. Using copyed material in good faith is no defence for ignoring ownership.

The pursuit of aviation safety can be argued to be the pursuit of the greater public good. Unfortunately, the lawyers of some newsgathering organisations will not give the time of day to anyone who argues that they are in pursuit of the greater good.

Suprisingly, the subject of who is a press reporter or newsgathering organisation is vague in a lot of national legal frameworks. Protecting free speech is a strong case for not drawing too many boundaries but a complete free for all has a downside as “truth” goes out the window.

On another subject, privacy is a sticky one. Where people are identifiable in randomly taken pcitures or video of accidents and incidents there is currently no protection.

Again, there are questions to be answered in relation to use of social media derived safety information.

NOTE:

Example: Dramatic footage shows firefighters tackling fire on British Airways passenger plane at Copenhagen airport. [Dailymotion embeded video].

An Online Safety Bill in the UK will shake up the regulation of material on-line even if its not designed to address the issue raised in my blog. Online Safety Bill: factsheet – GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

Social media is changing aviation safety

You may ask, how do I sustain that statement? Well, it’s not so difficult. My perspective that of one who spent years, decades in-fact, digging through accident, incident, and occurrence reports, following them up and trying to make sense of the direction aviation safety was taking.

In the 1990s, the growth of digital technology was seen as a huge boon that would help safety professionals in every way. It was difficult to see a downside. Really comprehensive databases, search capabilities and computational tools made generating safety analysis reports much faster and simpler. Getting better information to key decision-makers surely contributed to an improvement in global aviation safety. It started the ball rolling on a move to a more performance-based form of safety regulation. That ball continues to roll slowly forward but the subject has proved to be not without difficulties.

Digging through paper-based reports, that overfilled in-trays, no longer stresses-out technical specialist quite the same as it did. Answers are more accessible and can reflect the real world of daily aircraft operations. Well, that is the theory, at least. As is often the case with an expansion of a technical capability, this can lead to more questions and higher demands for accuracy, coverage, and veracity. It’s a dynamic situation.

Where data becomes public, media attention is always drawn to passenger aircraft accidents and incidents. The first questions are always about what and where it happened. A descriptive narrative. Not long after those questions comes: how and why it happened. The speed at which questions arise often depends on the severity of the event. Unlike road traffic accidents, fatal aviation accidents always command newsprint column inches, airtime, and internet flurries.

Anyone trying to answer such urgent public questions will look for context. Even in the heat of the hottest moments, perspective matters. This is because, thankfully, fatal aviation accidents remain rare. When rare events occur, there can be a reasonable unfamiliarity with their characteristic and implications. We know that knee-jerk reactions can create havoc and often not address real causes.

In the past, access to the safety data needed to construct a context was not immediately available to all commers. Yes, the media often has its “go-to” people that can provide a quick but reliable analysis, but they were few and far between.

This puts the finger on one of the biggest changes in aviation safety in the 2020s. Now, everyone is an expert. The immediacy and speed at which information flows is entirely new. That can be photography and video content from a live event. Because of the compelling nature of pictures, this fuels speculation and theorising. A lot of this is purely ephemeral but it does catch the eye of news makers, politicians, and decision-makers.

So, has anyone studied the impact of social media on developments in aviation safety? Now, there’s a good topic for a thesis.

Safety in numbers. Part 4

In the last 3 parts, we have covered just 2 basic types about failures that can be encountered in any flight. Now, that’s those that effect single systems, and their subsystems and those that impact a whole aircraft as a common effect.

The single failure cases were considered assuming that failures were independent. That is something fails but the effects are contained within one system.

There’s a whole range of other failures where dependencies exist between different systems as they fail. We did mention the relationship between a fuel system and a propulsion system. Their coexistence is obvious. What we need to do is to go beyond the obvious and look for relationships that can be characterised and studied.

At the top of my list is a condition where a cascade of failures ripple through aviation systems. This is when a trigger event starts a set of interconnected responses. Videos of falling dominoes pepper social media and there’s something satisfying about watching them fall one by one.

Aircraft systems cascade failures can start with a relatively minor event. When one failure has the potential to precipitate another it’s important to understand the nature of the dependency that can be hardwired into systems, procedures, or training.

It’s as well to note that a cascade, or avalanche breakdown may not be straightforward as it is with a line of carefully arranged dominos. The classical linear way of representing causal chains is useful. The limitation is that dominant, or hidden interdependencies can exist with multiple potential paths and different sequences of activation.

The next category of failure is a variation on the common-mode theme. This has more to do with the physical positions of systems and equipment on an aircraft. For example, a localised fire, flood, or explosion can defeat built-in redundancies or hardened components.

Earlier we mentioned particular risks. Now, we need to add to the list; bird strike, rotor burst, tyre burst and battery fires. The physical segregation of sub-systems can help address this problem.

Yes, probabilistic methods can be used to calculate likelihood of these failure conditions occurring.

The next category of failure is more a feature of failure rather than a type of failure. Everything we have talked about, so far, may be evident at the moment of occurrence. There can then be opportunities to take mitigating actions to overcome the impact of failure.

What about those aircraft systems failures that are dormant? That is that they remain passive and undetected until a moment when systems activation is needed or there’s demand for a back-up. One example could be just that, an emergency back-up battery that has discharged. It’s then unavailable when it’s needed the most. Design strategies like, pre-flight checks, built-in-test and continuous monitoring can overcome some of these conditions.

Safety in numbers, Part 3

The wind blows, the sun shines, a storm brews, and rain falls. Weather is the ultimate everyday talking point. Stand at a bus stop, start a conversation and it’ll likely be about the weather. Snow, sleet, ice or hail the atmosphere can be hostile to our best laid plans. It’s important to us because it affects us all. It has a common effect.

We started a discussion of common-mode failures in earlier paragraphs. We’ll follow it up here. Aircraft systems employ an array of strategies to address combinations and permutations of failure conditions. That said, we should not forget that these can be swamped by common-mode effects.

Environmental effects are at the top of the list of effects to consider. It’s a basic part of flying that the atmosphere changes with altitude. So, aircraft systems and equipment that work well on the ground may have vulnerabilities when exposed to large variations in temperatures, atmospheric pressure, and humidity.

Then there’s a series of effects that are inherent with rotating machinery and moving components. Vibration, shock impacts and heat all need to be addressed in design and testing.

It is possible to apply statistical methods to calculate levels of typical exposure to environmental effects, but it is more often the case that conservative limits are set as design targets.

Then there are particular risks. These are threats that, maybe don’t happen everyday but have the potential to be destructive and overcome design safety strategies. Electromagnetic interference and atmospheric disturbances, like lightning and electrostatic discharge can be dramatic. The defences against these phenomena can be to protect systems and limit impacts. Additionally, the separation or segregation of parts of systems can take advantage of any built-in redundancies.

Some common-mode effects can occur due to operational failures. The classic case is that of running out of fuel or electrical power. This is where there’s a role for dedicated back-up systems. It could be a hydraulic accumulator, a back-up battery, or a drop-out ram air turbine, for example.

Some common-mode effects are reversable and tolerable in that they don’t destroy systems and equipment but do produce forms of performance degradation. We get into the habit of talking about failure as if they are absolute, almost digital, but it’s an analogue world. There’s a range of cases where adjustments to operations can mitigate effects on aircraft performance. In fact, an aircraft’s operational envelope can be adjusted to ensure that it remains in a zone where safe flight and landing are possible, however much systems are degraded.

Probabilities can play a role in such considerations. Getting reliable data on which to base sound conclusions is often the biggest challenge. Focusing on maintaining a controllable aircraft with a minimum of propulsion, in the face of multiple hazards takes a lot of clear thought.