Category: Media

Navigating Change

Theres’s wisdom in having flexibility when making decisions. Being too high bound by ridged beliefs or a dogmatic creed isn’t a way of sustaining success. The saying, “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?” is attributed to John Maynard Keynes. It’s nice to have a quote like that to validate the wisdom of flexibility. Is it always true? Well, this is not a physical law like Force equals Mass times Acceleration. So, using the word “always” is not the least bit appropriate.

In the first months of 2025 the US seems to be going through a cycle of extreme plasticity. It goes like this; propose policy that’s drastic and disruptive and that shocks or puts everyone on edge. Let it ride for a day. Watch what happens. Then either double-down or reverse the whole move and start something else equally shocking. Meantime saying how great the achievement has been even if there’s no positive achievement.

Conventional wisdom isn’t wrong because it’s conventional. Reacting to conventional or traditional ways of working by deeming them automatically bad doesn’t add up. I know it’s conservative philosophy, but wisdom is acquired over time.

You could say, I’m burdened with being rational (or reading too much). That’s not wrong. What’s difficult is that a rational person must stretch the imagination a long way to see any good coming from a rapid cycle of change, often for the sake of change.

Setting the cat amongst the pigeons (or bull in a China shop) makes economies and financial systems quiver. Without a certain amount of understanding, or the perception of understanding, assessing risk becomes almost impossible. That’s the first months of 2025.

Where’s the vision? Maybe underlying the impulsiveness is a desire to get from here to there as quickly as possible.

75 years ago, after WWII, America entered a “golden age”. Baby boomers, technology and a sense of optimism drove the good times. The 1950’s ushered in a commercial exposition. Modern marketing and a proliferation of brands changed society, both in America and across the globe. Over the past decade, there’s not been that shiny newness or unbounded naivety that captured the imagination of the time.

If the overall vision is to get back to those times, then reality is going to bite. A sea change in circumstances could happen but it’s unlikely to be the one painted above.

Legacy, A Cautionary Tale

English is full of pithy phrases that echo through the pages of history. One of the greatest contributors to this phenomenon was Shakespeare. Lots of quips and quotes and snippets of wisdom come from his numerous plays (and other literary imitations).

The phrase or maximum that I have in mind is: “Beware of an old man in a hurry.” It’s not the only one on the same basic theme. My dad used to say that there’s “No fool like an old fool”. Honestly, as a child I had no idea what he was getting at. I guess it was to sum-up an observation of someone’s behaviour. It’s not a complementary saying.

There’re several ways of interpreting the “old man in a hurry” saying.

For one, and I’m just about to clock 65 years, the way the world seems is conditioned by the fact that one’s final moments are a lot closer than they were as an ambitious young man.

Another interpretation is that we might expect an older person, with more experience, will be guided to make better life decisions. However, in reality, the reverse is so often true.

I could go as far as to say that the “beware” part is to beware of imbedded prejudices and reduced peripheral vison that can come with age.

Doing a quick bit of research the source of this short English saying is not ancient wisdom from a Greek scholar or scribbling Roman sage. Not even a contemplative Medieval monk.

No, it’s a young British Conservative politician talking about an old Liberal. In fact, probably the most successful old Liberal that has ever graced Parliament. The one who left this county with the world’s biggest Empire. When he passed at 88 years, Britain was the most developed, most prosperous nation and biggest manufacturer the world had ever known. If we were ever to call to Make Britain Great Again, we’d call for an old Liberal. MBGA doesn’t exactly flow of the tongue. Anyway, GB (Great Britain) endures as a name.

The young British Conservative politician was Churchill’s father, Randolph, and the old Liberal was an energetic, fired-up Gladstone.

Can I now use “Beware of an old man in a hurry” as I reflect on the week’s News? Does President Trump see the world as a racing clock? Knowing that mortality looms. Knowing that any marks that are to be made need to be made – now. The “long-game” is for others to play.

When time is almost up the tendency to rashness can be understood. A lot depends on whether the subject of legacy looms large in the thinking of a leader. Through the millennia legacy has mattered a great deal to leaders.

Gladstone’s success was marred by the eventual destruction of the Party he led. He did transform government from a boys-club of privilege, at least in part, but the future of Ireland became his achillea heel. As a Liberal, he found building a powerful country didn’t mean granting privilege for politician’s and friends’ private businesses but ensuring that the working class were represented.

Trump’s haste, and lack of longer-sighted goals, appears real. Constitutions, democracy and the public good will endure. Mean-time hang on to your hats.

About Animals and Flying

Pigs do fly[1]. But only the more privileged ones. Yes, animals that fly are not restricted to those with their own wings. It’s true that the animal kingdom has been showing us how to fly long before powered flight took-off. Nothing more graceful than a bird of pray swooping and diving. We (humans) can’t match much of what they do with our flying machines however hard we try.

Birds long inspired great thinkers. They opened the prospect of human flight. If they can do it – why can’t we? Surely the right combination of aerodynamic structures and a source of power would solve the problem. Shocking, in a way, that it wasn’t until a couple of keen bicycle repair men and a smart mechanic persisted until they had a working machine. That was only just over a hundred years back.

So, today’s novelty News item[2] of a cat that didn’t want to leave an aircraft puts a smile on my morning face. For all the farm cats I have known, the story doesn’t surprise me at all. It’s the sort of situation where humans are almost powerless in the face of the preferences of a feline.

Naturally, the engineering staff of an airline will have a good look at where the cat has been in its wanderings. There’s always the remote chance for a rogue moggy to play with something they shouldn’t ought to play with. Even on a modern Boeing 737.

I used the word “remote” but there are definite cases of loose animals causing air safety hazards. Looking this one up, because it sits vaguely in my memory, I do recall a dog that crewed through electrical cables after it got free in a cargo hold. Now, however lovable and cuddly a dog maybe that’s a place that no one wants to be in.

Back in 2002, American Airlines Flight 282 approached New York’s JFK. It was a Boeing 757 that landed with chewed-up electrical cables. Crew members heard noises coming from the cargo hold and found that some aircraft radio and navigational equipment wasn’t working. A dog had chewed its way through a cargo bulkhead and attacked wires in an electronics compartment. 

A quick search reveals that there are more cases of incidents caused by loose animals than might first be thought. Animals are potentially hazardous cargo. Sadly, often these flight incidents are not good for the animals concerned.

One thing to remember is that a large aircraft, at flight altitude, is pressurised. That’s not at the air pressure on the ground (unless an airport is a long way up a mountain range). A dog with breathing difficulties is going to find an aircraft environment distressing. Dogs can be skillful escape artists. Myself, I’m not keen to share a flight with them.

[1] https://intradco-global.com/livestock-transport/

[2] https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/33273791/cat-causes-chaos-ryanair-plane-rome/

Pragmatism in British Politics

Pragmatism has long been a part of British life. Idealism too but to a lesser extent. That said, the shelves of literary works probably tip in the balance of idealism. There’s always an “insightful” quote to pull of the shelf and plonk into a speech or scribblings like this.

There’s a comfort in putting important decisions down to known facts and up-to-date realities. This way of working tends to favour short-term action based on weighing-up the here and now. What’s best for us where we stand at this moment? How much money have we got?

If you are an ardent socialist or committed liberal or dyed-in-the-wool right-winger, then pragmatism can make your flesh crawl. It leads to the question – what do you really believe in? Intellectual prowess is challenged by a call to make it up as we go along.

Pragmatism encourages hypocrisy. Now, that might be phrased as an uncomfortable negative. The truth is that no successful organisation has ever escaped a great deal of honest hypocrisy. Positions on even the most hard-fought issues do change. That’s not a negative. Just a couple of minutes surveying the history of the last half century, more than proves the case.

So, when I hear the UK Prime Minister (PM) talk of “ruthless pragmatism” I do wince a bit. It’s not that pragmatism per-se is an evil. No way. Mere survival in any political landscape and someone must react to the here and now in a way that doesn’t sink the ship.

PM Keir Starmer talking on Europe[1] is like listening to a rich Victorian woman having on extremely tight underwear. There’s no way she can loosen it in public. Her peers would disown her. When no one is looking an immense sense of relief can be gained in shedding the constraining garments. Behind closed doors the ridiculous restraints are shed.

Frankly, UK opposition to joining youth mobility schemes[2] in Europe is a stupid as stupid can get. I mean stupid times a billion. Now, some madcap idealists might be scared that British youth might, if taught early, be influenced in ways that would last throughout their lives. Such would be their indoctrination that eventual the push on the UK to join to European Union (EU) would be overwhelming.

There’s another word beginning with “p”. Take pragmatism and replace it with paranoia. The later seems to be fashionable just now. Forget the idealist approach where at least views tend to be based on a plausible creed. Paranoia is such that no previous experience is necessary. It’s all-over social media and more and more conventional media. Pragmatism is met with disbelief. So, is it wise for Keir Starmer to make that word a number one headliner?

A philosophical political pragmatism has been long practiced in the UK. I don’t see that stopping anytime soon. But what’s to be gained by headlining it? Not a lot I’d say. In fact, it gives ammunition to the light blue swivel-eyed loons[3].

[1] https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/editorials/keir-starmer-brexit-reset-europe-b2692118.html

[2] https://lordslibrary.parliament.uk/youth-mobility-schemes/

[3] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/swivelgate-david-cameron-goes-to-war-with-the-press-over-swiveleyed-loons-slur-8622277.html

Investigating the Black Hawk and American Eagle Collision

What’s mysterious about the recent tragic collision between a US Army Sikorsky UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter and the American Eagle Flight 5342, was the failure of the normal procedure of “see and avoid” and the lack of an avoiding manoeuvre from the helicopter[1].

Taking the timings from reports of the investigators’ work so far, the air traffic controller’s instruction to the military helicopter to pass behind the commercial jet was seventeen seconds before the catastrophic collision impact. Given the trajectory of the commercial jet, as the pilots were focused on a landing, they had little possibility for an evasive manoeuvre other than a go-around. I imagine the commercial pilots and the tower controller reasonably assumed that the military helicopter would comply. In fact, why would they have any reason to question that assumption?

A question has arisen about night-vision goggles. Were the crew of the military helicopter using these devices? Night Vision Imaging System (NVIS) are not new[2]. They are used in both in military and commercial flying. There are a series of technical requirements that address their safe use. For commercial flying helicopters, that use such visual systems, they must additionally be equipped with a Terrain Avoidance and Warning System (TAWS). 

One of the down sides of night-vision systems are that the greatly enhanced capability can lead to overconfidence and potential misjudgements by pilots. When used by pilots these systems amplify ambient light and thus help pilots maintain visual references. That’s good for night flying over difficult terrain at low altitude. It’s not so good when there are multiple bright light sources all around, as there are in a big city.

I’m sure that the accident investigators will be giving the above subject a great deal of consideration. Afterall, the evening of this tragic accident was one of fine weather and fair visibility. The investigators have a significant task ahead analysing data and verifying the performance of both humans and machines in the accident situation.

NOTE 1: Worth a watch https://youtu.be/hlMTpIAlpw0

NOTE 2: Key safety system off in Army helicopter that collided with American Airlines jet, senator says | Reuters

NOTE 3: Night Flying “there are factors that can make it more challenging, like the lack of visual references and encountering visual illusions”. Flying into the Dark. What You Need to Fly at Night | by FAA Safety Briefing Magazine | Cleared for Takeoff | Jan, 2025 | Medium

[1] Evidence of a last-minute manoeuvre may still come to light. Sadly, the outcome remains the same.

[2] https://skybrary.aero/articles/night-vision-imaging-system-nvis

Discontent with Conservatives

Those who stuck with the Conservatives at the last UK General Election must be regretting it. After their appalling record in government there are still 121 Conservative Party members of Parliament (MPs). This is the lowest number in the history of the Conservative Party. Parliamentary consistencies, like Reigate[1] and Staines[2], places where I have lived, have little, or no effective representation as the new year gets into its stride.

For what worth they are at this time in the electoral cycle, the Conservative Party and Reform Party (or company) are scrambling around trying to salvage any influence they can get. Both parties are no longer supported by their signed-up membership preferring major donors to pay the bills instead.

Frankly, we have no idea of their real membership numbers[3]. Political party membership hasn’t exactly been booming across the board. What’s clear is that the residual Conservative Party and Reform people are fishing in the same pond.

Last night, I happened to catch part of a Conservative political broadcast on the BBC. The general theme was politicians have let you down. This was said by Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch in a non-specific way to avoid saying Conservative politicians have let you down.

I did begin to wonder if she wouldn’t have done better by hosting a daytime cooking show from her immaculate kitchen. Now, I want to know if her mug had coffee or tea in it or was it just and empty prop? It seems to me every time Conservative rebrand, we see a different shade of blue being presented in the media. They are lucky that so many shades of blue are possible.

In the News too is Nigel Farage’s cold shouldering in the US. He may no longer be the far-right’s political great hope for the future. Reform may have to look elsewhere for its champion.

The 650 MPs that were elected by you and me to the House of Commons, at the 4 July 2024 UK General Election are likely to get a full-term. I’d guess that the new government can live with being relatively unpopular for at least a couple of years. After that they had better start showing that life has got better, public services work otherwise they will be a one hit wonder.

For political watchers its going to be fascinating to see how the pseudo-war on the right of politics will pan out in the UK. Will they combine? Having lived through the SDP–Liberal Alliance back in the 1980s, I know how hard it can be to restructure and reorientate in the British context.

There’s a lot of spinning of the wheels. Interim pain and uncomfortable partnering. The certainty being that not everyone will be happy or contented. Some notable people will go off in a huff. Eggs will get broken.

Or are we in a new era media where all that’s needed is tons of fakery and magical thinking. Plush marketing and dramatic assertions backed up by absolutely nothing.

[1] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001442

[2] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001505

[3] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq62qv3486qo

Risks of Pruning Government

Everybody likes a good analogy. I don’t know if this one qualifies. We communicate by saying this thing is like this other thing. The first one being easier to understand than the one second. It’s a basic part of storytelling.

Who understands how government and its institutions grow? I’ve no doubt there are huge textbooks full of detailed analysis and complicated theories. Sitting on dusty library shelves. Written by knowledgeable and venerable academics.

I’m coming from a background that’s more practical. One of having mixed with and worked in bureaucratic structures built to serve a public good. Bureaucracies that have both traditional administrative and technical elements.

Here goes. Government, or rather the administrations, institutions and services are like a large oak tree. It’s kind of human pyramid in the sense that there’s a top and bottom. An upside-down tree minus the roots.

Oak trees are long lived. They have branches that are substantial so that they can carry a heavy load and suffer the battering of the wind and rain. Out on the furthest limbs they are young, spindly and vulnerable.

Today’s media is full of stories of what might come. There’s a new year in prospect. Across the Atlantic a new President is about to take-up office. Speculation is rife. One part of that speculation concerns the future of the large administration that is the federal state.

The Presidents favourite billionaire has ideas to take a chainsaw to the tree of administration. Generally speaking, a chainsaw isn’t the best tool for the job, but it certainly is scary. Maybe that’s the point. Keeping a huge, embedded administration on its toes.

My point, and I have one, which is more than I can say for Rory Stewart, a former minister, talking on the BBC this morning. My point is that pruning a tree requires the pruner to be competent. That’s having the attitude, skill and experience needed to make a good job of it.

Lopping off limbs of a working administration with the sole aim of saving money isn’t such a sound idea. Each branch has a purpose. It’s as well to have a comprehensive understanding of what that purpose is before the pruning starts. From that understanding can come a sound reason to prune.

Ideally, pruning should be good for the tree and good for everyone who depends upon it. Weak branches that suck-up energy even though their days are numbered should become firewood. Fledgling young branches that are heading out to explore new territory may need encouragement and support.

So, it is with government. There’s a lot of truth in Parkinson’s Law[1]. He knew a thing or two about bureaucracies. The clever bit is finding out where this phenomenon has taken off. Where the tree has grown way out of balance.

Will Musk be competent in pruning? Who knows. One thing is for sure. The potential for loping off a branch that is vital to health, wealth and happiness is all too real. Let’s watch and see.

[1] the law – “Work expands to fill the available time”

UK Farmers’ Unrest: Budget Shock and Political Implications

Yesterday, central London was full of British farmers. Far more than was anticipated. It’s a countryside revolt. Or at least the seed corn of unrest. It needs to be addressed quickly.

The UK Government Budget sprung an unexpected shock on farmers. Newly elected, everyone expected them to try to correct the spending mess left by their predecessors. However, few expected them to make-up last minute figures to do something they said they wouldn’t do.

Lots of family farmers could be singing the classic Beatles song “Yesterday”. Troubles seemed so far away before the general election. Now, they seem here to stay.

Like androids, and the Tories before them, Labour Members of Parliament (MPs) are trotting out lines prepared for them by their masters. The political excuse trotted out robotically is that the theoretical threshold for taxation is £3 million and not £1 million as everyone is saying. Therefore, they say, fewer farm businesses will be impacted by their new death tax.

When something goes wrong in Government one of the best strategies is to address the facts immediately, apologies for any error, take the temporary hit and move on quickly. Stonewalling and wibbling is an extremely poor approach.

For a start, many farmers will not be able to take-up the tax reliefs Labour MPs are talking about. Farming is a hazardous profession. Sadly, unexpected deaths are not unusual. If such an event occurs this could then result in compounded tragedy, that is the death of a family business too.

Farmers are pointing out that significantly wealthy people will still use land purchase to avoid tax. They will have complex and detailed tax planning services at their fingertips.

Agricultural land values have increased dramatically in recent decades. Yes, there is an issue to be addressed with respect to land value. Housing development land is an astronomical price. It’s one of the drivers that is making house prices unaffordable for many people.

Labour needs to recognise that it’s not food producers who are driving these negative phenomena. It’s not small and medium sized family farms who are the problem makers.

Not only is this new inheritance tax very poor politics by Labour, but it’s also not going to crack the problem that they might wisely wish to crack. I’d say, think again. At least consult.

New Form of Monarchy in 2024?

An observation. There’s something strange going on across the Atlantic. You see, I have found inspiration in the story of America’s revolutionary struggle. The writings of Thomas Paine stirring up a radical movement. The strong desire to be independent of the rule of Kings and Queens. There’s a lot to be said for freeing a nation from imperial tyranny.

The Declaration of Independence in 1776 is a bold statement. Rejecting the royal authority of George III to set a new nation on an independent path. It proved to be a dynamic and prosperous democratic path. One that people across the world looked on with admiration.

It’s true that the United States has had its own dynasties. Powerful families and influential individuals that have shaped its history. However, since its independence, none of them have ruled as a monarch. None have wheeled massive power without checks and balances.

Yet here we are in 2024, and a form of pseudo monarch stands ready to take the reigns of power. Sure, democracy has played its part in putting one man in control. That, in of itself, is not unknown in the history books. The question to ask is when does a Republic tip over and become something quite different from what it has been?

I hope my observations are an exaggeration. It’s all to easy to see the News that commentators want us to see. I’ve often found that it’s most difficult to see things as they actual are as opposed to how they are shaped by personal beliefs and fleeting desires. Objectivity isn’t so easy.

This much can be said, the next four years are going to be turbulent ones. There’s a certainty in that conclusion. Even with the Atlantic in the way, just as the Jetstream brings us changeable weather, so unsettling waves of transformation will hit our shores.

The latest commentary coming from supporters of the new Trump regium in the US is one of polarisation. It’s the traditional stick-up. Choose between us and them. Our populous island off the shore of continental Europe must be squeezed into a choice between the US and the EU.

This monosyllabic way of framing a debate gets swallowed by the media. Overall, it’s nonsense. There’s no way that both will not be important for as far over the horizon as anyone can see. Both are going through periods of disruption. For once, domestically, the UK seems relatively stable. That’s putting aside the past damage done by Brexit and a Conservative government that fell into total disrepair. Yes, the UK can plot its path knowing that some internal consistency can be expected.

Everything I’ve written here is overshadowed by issues of global concern. Overshadowed being the sad reality. Climate change will not wait for the dust to settle from ardent disruptors. The planet’s atmosphere knows nothing of the exploits of prominent personalities. We desperately need to rediscover common interests and act on common concerns.

Haunting Classics

Five more for Halloween. Yesterday’s blog listed a selection of scary tunes to get everyone in the right mood for the weekend. Digging into the classics one song stands tall. Meat Loaf’s “Bat out of Hell” is so iconic[1]. I can close my eyes. A cassette player in a past motor belts out the bat and suddenly the car is transformed into a likeness of the scene in “Waynes World”.

AC/DC and “Highway to Hell” continues the hellish theme[2]. That song has as much energy as a nuclear power station. Several power stations all connected.

“Zombie” by the Cranberries[3] has a soulful lament that seems hopelessly lost. It’s ring of despair goes beyond its time. Quite a song for this sad time too. A powerful video kicks at the fact that horror is not just imagined – it’s us.

Lost in the gloom of a dire recession and the Midlands in the 1980s, “Ghost Town” by The Specials[4] is seasonal. It’s dark nights, clocks go back, dangerous streets and closed shops. Weary nightclubs sloshing with supressed violence.

Finally, the TV series Twin Peaks intro theme[5]. Why, because it’s so spooky, mystical and endless. Once heard its impossible to unhear. It vainly tries to lift in the middle. That’s nothing as the haunting strums of the bass guitar endlessly plot a path into infinity. I was going to choose the main title music to The Shining. That’s great but not as memorable as eery atmospherics created by the Twin Peaks instrumental.

Although, “Ghostbusters,” by Ray Parker Jr. is so popular I’d put it at the bottom of my list. It’s far to upbeat and has that air of niceness like bubble-gum. Like “Little Shop of Horrors”. It’s good fun but not the stuff of nightmares.

[1] https://youtu.be/3QGMCSCFoKA

[2] https://youtu.be/gEPmA3USJdI

[3] https://youtu.be/6Ejga4kJUts

[4] https://youtu.be/RZ2oXzrnti4

[5] https://youtu.be/nCn3LYqCnrk