Science – John Vincent

Exploring Space: A Journey

I haven’t got many of my childhood Ladybird books. One I have kept in good condition is “Exploring Space.” It’s got the characteristic illustrations and simple stories that are made to captivate. This book is the revised edition that must date from sometime after 1971[1]. The front cover has an illustration of a moon lander floating above the moon. It’s a picture that says – look what we can do, this is the tip of the iceberg. Such an optimistic outlook.

Most of my career has been in the aerospace business. More specifically civil aviation. For short while, I did get involved in building ground test equipment for satellite systems. Some of the people I worked with built the Giotto spacecraft in the UK. The mission was to study Halley’s Comet. This spacecraft, launched in 1985, took close-up images of the comet. It discovered organic material within the comet and proved that a spacecraft could cope with the harsh conditions of such a flyby.

My interest in space, and the complexities of getting there has been with me for a long time. It’s the ultimate adventure. It also shows what can be done by international cooperation. Giotto was the European Space Agency (ESA) first deep-space mission.

Mention the word interplanetary and what comes to mind? For people of my age. The Carpenters’ version of the song “Calling Occupants of Interplanetary Craft”. It’s an eccentric, but successful 1970s pop song about talking to aliens. It’s a cry for help that is as relevant now as it was then. “Please come in peace and help us in our earthly problems.” If ever we humans could do with help from a more advanced civilization, it’s right now.

A sense of wonder about the heavens is as old as our human story. What’s up there? Could we live there? Are there others living there already?

I like the idea of an English bishop[2] in the 1630s. An early science fiction writer he imagined a flight into space in a craft pulled by a flock of wild swans. Ten to be precise. Since there are plenty of swans here in the English town of Newbury, I thought about investigating that idea. Maybe not.

Last evening, for the first time, I visited the British Interplanetary Society (BIS)[3] at Arthur C. Clarke House in London. Their HQ is in Lambeth. Can’t say I like that part of London at all. It’s a peculiar mix of sterile skyscrapers and spaces waiting to be re-developed. Old London has been pushed aside.

The BIS has a long history. It’s no fly by night organisation. Not as far back as the English bishop mentioned above, but more than 90-years extant. They have promoted thoughts and ideas that go way beyond past achievements. Trying to imagine what a future may look like if our capabilities and drive for exploration continue to advance here on earth. I think there’s always a need for that creative imagination to push the boundaries of what’s possible.

This week has been Space Week[4]. A week to highlight all things space. Back in 1999, the United Nations (UN) declared that World Space Week would be every year from 4 to 11 October. For this celebration, this year, the BIS had put on an evening event called: Living in Space: A World Space Week Special Panel.

I won’t say too much only that it was a fascinating evening. We were a small gathering full of questions. BIS had assembled a prestigious panel of experienced individuals. There wasn’t much in terms of the practicalities of living and working in space that didn’t get discussed.

I’m reminded that despite the hostility of the space environment for our biology, what we know is that all the materials of which the earth is made are there waiting for us. Constructing habitats, with the robotics we now have, isn’t just science fiction anymore.

[1] https://www.royalmint.com/discover/decimalisation/

[2] Francis Godwin (1562–1633)

[3] https://www.bis-space.com/

[4] https://www.worldspaceweek.org/

Why ‘Artificial’ in AI May Be Misleading: A Deeper Look

On reflection it seems strange to me that the biggest commercial push in technology should be called Artificial Intelligence (AI). Universally, this term has seeped into the daily media as being the only form of shorthand for the coming transformation in our lives.

Generally, the word “artificial” isn’t associated with desirable qualities. If I say that it’s opposite is “natural” then there is a wide gulf between the two. It couldn’t be clearer. Place a plastic garden chair next to an antique wooden chair – case proven.

Imagine a marketing campaign for artificial cosmetics as opposed to natural cosmetics. Which one do you think would be the more successful? It’s honest to say that a product is artificial given that it’s manufactured but it’s much more appealing to talk about its natural roots.

A desire to elevate natural content has a historical context. It’s the industrial revolution that provided society with a rich wealth of choice. Trouble is that a legacy image of dark satanic mills[1] and grim-faces of exploited workers is written deep into our culture. The natural world was assaulted and abused by the unstoppable steam roller of the industrial revolution.

It’s reasonable to refer to a complex digital system as an artifact. Not in the way of an archaeological discovery. More like a popular game, chess, checkers or go, in that it’s extant and associated with a set of practices and rules.

Today, AI doesn’t exist in nature. It may be inspired by nature, in terms of analogies with the workings of our brains. Neural networks and memory. Interconnections of circuits and wires and their arrangements are a human creation.

Having written the above, it does make me think; what will happen in 1000 years? A long time for our social structures and organisation but no time at all for any inhabitants of the Earth. Will someone be writing academic tones on the natural history of computers? Humans will be looking at them, and their evolution wondering how and why they got to do what they do. Much as we might now study ravens, rats and rabbits.

Surely AI will evolve. A natural process. Current systems will inevitably have deficiencies and flaws that get corrected in future generations. Experimentation is a human domain. Give it several decades and machines will be doing it for themselves.

The word “artificial” has a big downside. Although I’m having a lot of difficulty in thinking of a better general word. In my long-term scenario, what’s coming is a new branch of evolution. We know, the complexity of human behaviour is largely conditioned by our environment. We adapt. What AI may become, continuity dependent, will likely follow a similar path.

Whenever I visit the Natural History Museum[2] in London I like to look in on our ancestors. Today, our species, Homo sapiens, is the only human living. We once lived amongst our other human ancestors. Homo is the Latin word for “human” and sapiens is derived from a Latin word meaning “wise”.

There’s a story for you. Will AI eventually become Machina sapiens?

[1] “Dark Satanic Mills” is a phrase from William Blake’s poem.

[2] https://www.nhm.ac.uk/discover/the-origin-of-our-species.html

International Collaboration in Space

It’s only taken 20,000 years for Homo sapiens to migrate to the American continent and then decided to industrialise the Moon. Just imagine what the next 20,000 years has in store.

Putting nuclear power on the Moon is a possible enabler for a future Moonbase. Considering the length of time it has taken since the last footsteps on the Moon, a Moonbase is long overdue. That said, going to a faraway place where there’s an abundance of solar energy potential it’s an interesting development that nuclear power is given a priority.

My view is that exploration beyond Earth is a matter for the whole of humanity. Going to the Moon should be an international endeavour. There’s good reason to cooperate when it comes to exploration. For a start space exploration is incredibly hard to do. Rockets explode with an unsettling degree of frequency.

Modern humans have gone from tens of thousands on one continent to what may top ten billion on Earth. It’s no wonder space, the final frontier, beckons. Trouble is we have evolved as specialist on this planet. Not well adapted to the space environment. If our wandering species is to venture into the void, we need to be mighty determined. This will be hard. The hardest effort ever made.

It would be absurd for individual nations to establish separate camps on the Moon. The space race is a concocted nonsense. More flag waving PR than serious sense. Why do I say this?

One: Demand on resources, to build, develop and maintain, a space presence is high. Sharing costs has benefits when planning for the long-term. Continuing costs can be volatile.

Two: In the event of the almost inevitable failures and setbacks, better to have partners to create different ways and means to recover or mount rescues in the worst-case scenarios.

Three: Partners can specialise. Not everyone has to do everything all the time. Afterall, that’s how our modern society came about in the first place.

Four: Cooperative planning means more gets done at the same time. Duplication and fragmentation of efforts don’t serve the great goal of exploration.

Five: Earth’s people are interconnected and interdependent. Even small Moon based colonies will inevitably be the same. Reliant on connections, locally as much as to a distant home.

As a spin off, making exportation an international endeavour can bring us together on this divided planet too.

Exploration and Innovation

Is there a human on the planet who has never seen the Moon? I guess, there must be a small number. The Earth’s satellite comes and goes from the night sky. Its constancy can’t be denied. Lighting the way when it’s full.

Accurate measurements say that the Moon is drifting away from us. The pace is nothing to be concerned about. It’s not going to become a free flying object careering across the universe. Space 1999[1] is pure fiction. Let’s face it we haven’t even got a working Moon Base here in 2025.

What motivated humans to go to the Moon in the 1960s? The simplest answer is the explorer’s quote: because it’s there. A quote that can be applied to any difficult journey that’s being taken for the first time. It implies a human longing to explore. An insatiable desire to go where no one has gone before. That’s nice, only it’s a partial story.

Technology accelerated in the post-war era as science and engineering built upon the discoveries and inventions that conflict drove. Then the promise of peace dissolved into the Cold War. Sides arranged in immoveable ideological opposition. The technological race was on. Intense competition drove the need to be display global superiority.

Potentially destructive forces were, for once, channeled into a civil project of enormous size. The Apollo missions. The aims and objectives of which were “civil” in nature, however the resulting innovations had universal applications. Companies that made fighter jets and missiles turned their hands to space vehicles. Early rockets were adaptations of intercontinental missiles.

1969’s moon landing put down a marker in history that will be talked of in a thousand years. Putting humans on the Moon for the first time is one of the ultimate firsts. That first “small step for man” may be as important as the first Homo sapiens stepping out of Africa. A signpost pointed to what was possible.

More than five decades have gone by. Instead of looking up to the heavens we now look down to our mobile phones. Rather than applying our intelligence to exploration we strive to make machines that can surpass us. Of course this is not a true characterisation. Exploration has merely taken a different a direction.

Will humans step into the final frontier again? Yes, but not as the number one priority. Plans to return to the Moon exist. It’s the intense competition that drove the Apollo missions that is missing. The advantage of being first to establish a working Moon Base is not so overwhelming. Even this base as a stepping stone to the planet Mars is viewed as a longer term ambition.

One advantage of this century over the last is the advances in automation and robotics that have become commonplace. Modern humans don’t need to do everything with our hands. Complex machines can do much of the work that needs to be done. Footsteps on another planet can wait a while.

Enough of us continue to be amazed and inspired by space exploration. The challenge is not to achieve one goal. It’s to achieve many.

POST: I watched Capricorn One, the 1970s movie about a fake Mars mission. It could do with a remake. In many ways it is easier to fake now than it was with film and colour televisions the size of washing machines.

[1] https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0072564/

Absolutely!

Daily writing prompt

List 10 things you know to be absolutely certain.

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For some obscure reason my mind goes immediately to René Magritte. A painter who knew how to play with reality and illusion. “This is not a pipe.” A painting is not a pipe, but rather an image of a pipe. So, why not say so.

I could say that there is nothing that we can be totally certain about. Afterall, some deep thinkers imagine that we live in a simulation where nothing is real. Personally, I don’t go with that theory. It’s absurd in the sense that the next question becomes – who made the simulation? And for them, could they not be part of a greater simulation? That would create a Russian doll set that would go on to infinity. And we all have a problem with infinity.

Let me go for 10 things that I think to be certain within the bounds of my limited knowledge.

My name. It gets used by those I met. Documents have it well recorded. My parents were consistent in using it. So, I’ll say that it certainly is John.
Earth. The existence of the planet where I live. The ground beneath my feet. The physical mass that generates enough gravity to keep me here.
Water. Now, I’m listing the four classical elements (Earth, water, air and fire). I depend on them every day. To walk, to drink, to breath, to keep warm in winter.
Air.
Fire.
Space. A generic name for the huge expanse beyond the Earth. Even with no personal experience of Space, I’m certain that it exists. Its precise nature is another matter.
Food. The existence of which sustains me. Without it I’d perish.
My senses. My five senses – sight, hearing, smell, taste, and touch.
My size and shape. Measurements taken and recorded. Hight, weight and a proliferation of other dimensions. Not that they are static.
My emotions. Facts aside, so many likes and dislikes, engage, distract, motivate and repel with such consistency that their existence cannot be denied.

Having produced this fine list, I will now press the big red button marked do not press. Is there any reason why I shouldn’t engage the infinite improbability drive?

Probabilistic Predictions

Uncertainty is the only certainty. Not a radical statement. As long as I live, dealing with uncertainty is inevitable. Unavoidable everywhere. I wouldn’t have it any other way, even if it can be uncomfortable.

Prominent Ancient Greeks may have travelled to Delphi for advice as to what the future may hold. There’re those three enigmatic witches who warn Macbeth of his fate. History and fiction are littered with references.

For me, I can pick-up a newspaper and look for a daily astrological prediction. One I like. I can flick around social media and see more prophecies than ever. Mostly gibberish. There are those convinced of their foresight.

Despite a cynical disposition towards the above, science can be applied to the world of uncertainty. Generally, the proposition is that an element of the past and present will be reproduced in the future. This is not absolute. However, human engineered systems tend to behave with a degree of predictability.

Empirical methods, where society collects data from the past and present, can be useful in trying to forecast what may happen next. The more deterministic the systems under study, the more useful acquired data can be. For these, forecasting challenges mount for the new, novel, or radically altered.

I’m writing this given the interest there is in probabilistic safety. There are figures that hit the headlines that are almost incompressible. If the rationale behind the numbers is not clear then incorrect assumptions result. Tiny numbers from 1 x 10^-6 to 1 x 10^-9 are quoted in the News (SI Units). What do they mean? Let’s start with simple probability.

If an occurrence is certain then a numerical value of “1” can be given to it.

Absolute certainty is a rare thing. I can say that the Sun will rise tomorrow, and most people will take that as a statement of certainty. Intriguingly there’s the most incredibly improbable case where the solar system is thrown into instability and the Sunrise isn’t as expected.

If an occurrence never happens then a numerical value of “0” can be given to it.

Absolute impossibility is only possible with absolute knowledge. So, again it’s rare. I can say that human time-travel, to and from the distant past, is only fiction to next discover that a way has been found.

Let’s say we live in a world where the probability of occurrences ranges from the 0.99999, with ever more “9s”, to a number as small as 1 x 10^-30[1]. A quecto.

These extreme numbers are nice for physicists and astronomers to play with, but they are outside normal engineering practices. As yet, we do not have the means to operate at the level of these limits. Time will tell. Or I maybe wrong.

By the way, I used the word “occurrence” above to denote anything that can happen in an instant. When talking about undesirable happenings, that can mean an incident, accident, mishap, slip, failure, or error. Each of these has a definition. Often more than one.

Next. I’ll go back to the tiny numbers more commonly quoted.

POST: For extraordinary numbers we need look no further than the nimble electron. So far, the best measurement for the life of an electron suggests that one now will still be around in 66,000 yottayears (6.6 × 10²⁸ yrs). That’s about 5-quintillion times the current age of our universe.

[1] https://www.nist.gov/pml/owm/metric-si-prefixes

Understanding Contrails

Crisscrossing the sky, as I look up on a clear day, there are civil aircraft going about their business. People travelling across the Atlantic or coming back or on a day trip to Glasgow.

These shiny pinpoints of light in motion, set against a blue sky, are all the more visible because of the vapour trails they leave behind. Aircraft speed through the rarified atmosphere to leave a momentary trail as evidence of their presence.

Up with the aircraft in flight are natural clouds. Up at 30,000 feet there can be Cirrus clouds[1]. There might not be much air pressure at that altitude but there’s enough moisture to support cloud formation. The word “wispy” sums them up.

Aircraft create condensation trails that are known as contrails. How the English language likes to shorten. They are not mysterious or generate with evil intent in mind. It’s simple physics.

In my bathroom, with hot water gushing from the shower, moisture is the air. When that moist air meets a cold surface, like a window, condensation is sure to be seen. Airbourne it’s not so different. Hot emissions from powerful jet engines shooting out into a cold low-pressure environment and guess what?

Typically, contrails don’t last long. If there’s appreciable wind at high altitude, then they get dispersed quickly. Not only that but the icy temperatures up there soon return things to the status-quo. There are days, when the air is still, that the sky can become a crisscross of contrails where dispersion is more like a gentle merging.

The theory goes that the cumulative impact of lots of high-altitude flying is like the impact of additional cloud formation. It’s water vapour after all. It’s known, high altitude clouds can contribute to the greenhouse effect.

The point I’m getting to here is that lots of flying contributes to climate change. Primarily because of the burning of significant amounts of fossil fuel. As a secondary consideration there’s the issue of contrails across the globe.

This leads to the question – can their formation be avoided? Even, is there something useful to be gained in doing so. Trials and research are trying to establish the answer to these questions[2].

Initially, contrail avoidance sounds like it should be relatively easy to do. However, like so many good proposals it’s not so easy. Change needs to involve air traffic management, flight operations and international regulators.

First the atmospheric conditions need to be detected or predicted in a given location and then an avoidance needs to be planned and undertaken in coordination with everyone flying at high altitude at a given time. Lost of data to crunch.

It’s possible, in oceanic airspace, a dynamic aircraft system could perform this avoidance function. It would be an interesting design challenge for an avionics company to take up.

#Net Zero #SustainableAviation

[1] https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/learn-about/weather/types-of-weather/clouds/high-clouds/cirrus

[2] https://news.aa.com/esg/climate-change/contrail-avoidance/

Life on Mars Remains a Dream

Exploration is part of our DNA. There are parts of the planet that we don’t know well. That said, there are not so many spots where a human foot has not trod. The mysteries of the deep ocean remain to be better known. Only we more often look heavenward than we study deep waters.

Looking up at the night sky the fascination with a twinkling red dot runs through history. It’s surprisingly recent that the notion that Mars might be inhabited prevailed. A 100 years ago a scientist might be frowned upon but wouldn’t get locked up for such a conjecture.

The possibility of Martian life still gets discussed. If existing, it would be extremely rare and unlike the life we take for granted on Earth. Discoveries are more likely to tell us about the history of Mars than the present.

A search for other civilisations goes on. Today, Mars is a planet for robots. Rovers and other contrivances are best equipped to deal with the harshness of the natural environment. If the radiation doesn’t get you the wide-ranging temperature fluctuations will. Humans are not well suited to live in extremely harsh environments.

On a trip to Phoenix in the United States about 30-years ago, I drove out into the desert. This was to have a look at the Biosphere[1]. A curious experiment in human behaviour. The experiment attempted to reproduce what it would be like to live as extraterrestrials. We’d be the alien civilisation on Mars. Living in a huge greenhouse on Earth. As much as to say this brave but shaky experiment proved that extraterrestrial living is very hard. In fact, impossible in the way it was conceived. The lesson from such empirical experiments is to value our unique circumstances even more. Polluting and trashing Earth is about the stupidest act “intelligent” but fragile beings could do.

There are plenty of extremely harsh environments on Earth. Wisely we (humans) choose not to live in them on a permanent basis although we like to make documentaries about them. For example, there must be an exceptional motivator to get people to live in a box in Antarctica.

It’s reported that Musk says that Space X will go to Mars next year. Adding more robots to the Martian population. In the field of exploration this makes sense to me. What doesn’t make any sense at all is the determination to put humans on the surface of Mars.

The only civilisation that is likely to inhabit Mars successfully, in the next century, is an android one. Every sign is that the capability of robotic life will advance ever more rapidly. They can be designed to thrive where we would fall by the wayside. What better use can we put our future robotic friends to than advancing exploration?

Putting a date on the first human footsteps on Mars is about as ridiculous as last century’s imaginative speculation about a Martian invasion. Although, such popular stories make great science fiction.

POST: This remote station has had reported problems. A case in point. Antarctic scientists plead for help after colleague ‘threatens to kill’ team members | The Independent

[1] https://www.euronews.com/green/2022/01/29/living-in-a-bubble-did-this-failed-90s-experiment-predict-the-future

Daily writing prompt

If you could meet a historical figure, who would it be and why?

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It’s one thing to have the fancify idea that just as in “Bill & Ted’s Excellent Adventure[1]”, I’d be able to talk to anyone but that’s just not on. I might meet Socrates, or some other great classical mind and ask questions about the meaning of life.

Let’s face it, nice idea but we wouldn’t understand a word we said to each other. There’s also that divide between the analogue and digital world. Technology 21^st Century types take for granted would seem like magic stepping back a century. Thus, dude it’s the modern age where I’d focus attention. Set the dial on my time machine.

Let me go for Richard Feynman[2]. I’d ask how do you communicate complex ideas and make them seem not so complex? Then afterwards I’d be stuck with the dilemma that often strikes. Well, I thought I understood what he was saying but now I’m not so sure.

Strange that Bill & Ted went on their adventure the year Feynman passed on. That year, I was figuring out the space between the analogue and digital world.

If Feynman was busy, I’d go for Carl Sagan.

[1] https://youtu.be/oUDIBzecP1I

[2] https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/physics/1965/feynman/biographical/

Mars steps

It’s strange what thoughts circulate in my head. If I was to say what kicked this off it was probably the story of the Preet Chandi[1]. It’s inspiring how some people see a challenge and just get up and throw themselves into overcoming it. Her commitment and determination are impressive. She was recounting the how and why of her striking endeavours on the radio. What’s much less inspiring are a some of the moronic comments that the web throws-up about her achievements. I hope she continues to take on great challenges and sweeps them aside.

Exploring and going that extra mile is built into the fabric of being human. Fine, it’s not for everyone but that’s no surprise given that there are 8 billion of us on this planet. A magazine popped through my letterbox this week speculating on what Earth will be like when that number gets to 10 billion people. Don’t worry it’s not all doom and gloom. It’s just that the world will be a very different place by the time we get to 2050. Wow, if I stay healthy, I might still be around.

A lot of public policy of the moment seems to be resisting this reality. Honestly building barriers and walls will do nothing whatsoever to build a better world. Cultivating political anxiety and fears about the future is the maddest short-termism that can be imagined. But sadly, there’s a lot of it about. It’s fashionable in the mature democracies around the globe.

Humanity has an endless list of “challenges” and opportunities ahead. Now, I don’t what to sound too much like the Musk man but we’ve a great deal to do off the planet. What we’ve achieved so far is chicken feed in respect of what we have the potential to achieve.

The big one, that taxes the imagination of writers and futurologists is what do we do about our sister planet: Mars. It’s impossible to ignore. It’s not that far away when compared with other distances in space. It’s intriguing in that it was once a water world. Like Earth.

Today, it’s a planet inhabited by robots. The only one we know that is so populated. Rovers drive around sending pictures back of a desolate barren landscape that has an eery beauty. So much of what we know about the place has only been discovered in the last decade.

Human exploration is natural and normal. Do we leave it to robots? Afterall they are becoming ever more sophisticated. Or do we plant boots on the ground and go there to explore in the way we have throughout the Earth. Well, except for parts of the deep ocean.

Here’s what crossed my mind. Just as Polar Preet, broke two Guinness World Records on her journey, so the incentive to be the first person on Mars is something that will land in the history books. The name of the person who makes those steps will echo through the centuries ahead. So, the trip to Mars will not need an incentive. The drive to do it, at almost any cost is already hanging in the air. What’s more complicated is the journey back to Earth. Going on an expedition has a clear goal. Getting back from an expedition has a different goal.

Being someone who recognises the benefits in the reliability of redundant systems it occurs to me that a mission to Mars needs two ships and not one. Both traveling together to the planet. One can be simple and utilitarian. That’s the one crewed as the outward-bound ship. The other, the homeward ship needs to be autonomous, secure and even luxurious. That way the hardest part of the journey, coming back, can be made easier and more likely to succeed.

[1] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/preet-chandi-sikh-south-pole-b1987047.html