Unfair

That’s one way to start a note. “As a member of the post-active population”, I now feel that all the activity I now do is conveniently wrapped up as being somewhat like cosmic dark matter. It’s there in theory but no one knows what it is in fact. It’s activity that’s hidden activity.

There’s a great deal of talk about the large number of those people in their 50s, and above who have left the conventional workforce post-COVID. Unfortunately, much of it is tainted. The general implication being that the protestant work ethic runs deep and those who are not on the traditional 9-5 treadmill are letting society down. As if the only work worth counting is that which statisticians count into that magic number, namely Gross domestic product (GDP). The tyranny of an abbreviation. A great deal of useful productive and valuable activity is excluded from GDP.

Trogging off to Sunshine Deserts[1] every day, electronically or physically, and making or processing stuff and pushing rocks up hill is counted as the gold standard. This way of looking at the society is foolish. It comes from commentators being way behind the curve and politicians living life as if they were stuck in an idyllic childhood.

This way of thinking is especially true in the UK. More so than other European countries, we are dependent up charities and voluntary workers. German visitors are often struck by the number of charity shops in the UK. If you ask how palliative care, emergency services, children’s support, food banks, homeless shelters and crisis support are funded in German the response is simple – taxes.

The amount of unpaid work, like that performed in the home or by volunteers, in a massive range of organisations, is huge in the UK. That’s not wholly a bad thing. Sadly, this reality not recognised in government policy circles, other than being a way of off-loading responsibilities as funding cuts kick in. Of course, there’s politicians who turn-up for photo shoots at election time when there’s smidgen of recognition. If a charity is not in vogue or well known even those opportunities to raise funds and profile are few and far between.

All the above said, I do support the call for some education organisations that are deemed charities to lose the privileges rightly afforded to much more worthy charities. I know that’s a matter of judgement but not all fish in the sea are the same.

Often, it’s has struck me as strange that tertiary colleges (public funded education)[2] must pay Value Added Tax (VAT), but private colleges deemed to be “charities” do not. An uneven distribution of privileges is another characteristic of a way of doing things in this country.

As I understand, it what’s going on looks like this. Staff at Any Town College, where most local young people get their post-16 educational experience, order reams of paper for a printer. They pay 20% VAT. Staff at an expensive Public School, like the Prime Minister’s ex-college, order reams of paper for a printer. They don’t pay 20% VAT. That’s crazy.

No wonder growth is slow. No wonder social mobility is stifled. No wonder people are desperate for political change.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Fall_and_Rise_of_Reginald_Perrin

[2] https://feweek.co.uk/no-plans-to-exempt-colleges-from-vat-says-treasury-secretary/

Dependency

It’s not unique. Charle Dickens wrote about it. We don’t like to admit it. We have a dependency on bureaucracy. Our complex society runs on it.

Whatever we do when it comes to the meeting of an individual with an organisation, it’s inevitable. Irrational people deny this fact or say it’s only true of public bodies, like government departments. It’s as if the generally high performance of modern computer systems renders them completely invisible.

One apt illustration of a dependency on systematic bureaucracy and digitisation combined can be read in a carefully constructed e-mail from the CEO of Sainsbury’s this weekend.

“I’m writing to update you on the technical issue that has affected our Groceries Online deliveries and some services in our stores this weekend.”

This could have come from any large complex organisation that exists in today’s digital world. When outages happen, we all sit patiently for affected systems to come back online with the full services that we normally take for granted. A sudden reversion to traditional cash transactions was a shock to the average post-COVID consumer.

This weekend my experience of one major hotel chain was that they would not accept cash at all in their restaurant. My “paper” money was useless. It sat in my pocket.

What we have is the power of utility. Systems become so good that we build ever more dependency into them doing the right thing, every time. The problem is that systems are often programmed to do certain tasks exceptionally well but as soon as there’s an unexpected deviation outside normal parameters the situation does not go well. 

An illustration of that experience can be read in the public version of the interim report on UK NATS[1]. After the event, and similar unfortunate events, there’s a cavalcade of calls for more contingency, more resilience, more planning, more training, more checking and so on.

That list is perfectly sensible. But wouldn’t it have been better if those actions had been taken up-front? I often saw this discovery in my time doing systems certification audits. Companies who spend a lot of money upfront to build software that was well characterised and tested were not guaranteed success, but their chances were greatly improved. Those who hit the road with over-confidence, marketing hype and rigorous cost cutting had a high probability of negative outcomes. It’s not a simple cause and effect but good system architecture, robust software and a management that understood the need to spend time and money judiciously do well.  

Just think. If a runner ran a marathon without a strategy, training, basic fitness, planning and sound motivation no one would expect them to be winning anything unless they were exceptionally lucky or unbelievably talented. Not many in the latter category.

There’s a lesson here. It’s been copied over and over. Saddy the almost completely invisibly of complex system that work well in everyday life means we soon take them for granted. And the result is?

[1] https://www.caa.co.uk/publication/download/21478

Flying a kite

Political discussion is much as it often is. One side is an abomination the other is the only way. Reverse that theme and you can sing the song of either Conservative or Labour party. Test yourself and see if you can think of a positive, constructive, cross-party initiative that is making Britian a better place to live. And that it isn’t jam tomorrow.

We are in a particularly febrile season. Holding the front page is mostly for atrocities, resignations, scandals and promises broken. Future quizzes about early 2024 may feature the question – who was Prime Minister or why was the inevitable General Election delayed?

I stripped off the daily one-page calendar for the 15th and the saying presented was – Imagination is the highest kite you can fly. There is a sentence to end the week. In the face of grinding pragmatic reality and the predictability of the worn out adversarial political order what if there was some imagination?

Much daily News concerns conflict, war, crime, funding cuts, inflated claims, and disagreeable personalities. No wonder people are turning off serious News media. A diet of current events remains important in a healthy democracy. Sadly, lots of people are driven to News avoidance[1].

My recommendation is let’s have some daily News that stimulates the imagination. There’s a little tickle through on occasions. Sadly, again this is seen as a minority interest. The need for hope built on a positive vision for the future is great. The more people disengage with dependable, independent, and objective News, the more the spinners of misinformation and lies get a grip.

What is missing is imagination. It’s not so alien. To think we once had a prime-time show called – Tomorrows World[2]. It wasn’t a humours chat on a comfy sofa at teatime. Meandering about the lives of minor celebrities and entertainment plugs for coming shows.

For decades, the likes of Raymond Baxter, James Burke and Judith Hann took us on a weekly adventure. On reflection there’s an immense range in their presentations. From what now seems comical to what has turned out to be profoundly significant.

I propose a next generation version of Tomorrow’s World. It’s the Spirt of Imagination. Each week there would be an accessible, peak time, magazine style show that looks at what’s lighting up the world of science, technology, and engineering.

I’m not asking for a worthy educational STEM[3] fest. No. A show must be engaging. Not a bore fest. It must be led by talented communicators who have a passion and instinct for what people are talking about. It must look a generation ahead. Simultaneously ask grandparents to rediscover wonder.

[1] https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/news/five-things-news-media-can-do-respond-consistent-news-avoidance

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tomorrow%27s_World

[3] https://www.stem.org.uk/about-us

DUNE Part Two

It’s long. It’s engrossing and it’s a saga well told. That was my Monday afternoon. Sat in a comfortable seat curtsey of the Everyman in Reigate. The movie of DUNE is spread over 2-parts[1]. The second part is just out. It’s release was much delayed by the strikes in Hollywood. I’d say from my viewing this movie was well worth waiting for.

The whole world of DUNE centres around the most valuable commodity in the galaxy. A flash of an explanation can easily be missed. The desert planet Arrakis is the one source of that commodity. Science Fiction has a wonderful way of taking us to fantastical worlds filled with issues that are not so far from current day dilemmas. The commodity of Spice reminds me of several sought-after substances. The exploiting of valuable commodities at the expense of indigenous life has been a hallmark industrial progress.

In the imagination of Frank Herbert civilisations exist and compete within one almighty empire. The story in part 1 and 2 movies hinges on the dreams of a young man named Paul Atreides. I don’t want to give away key plot points but he’s special in so many ways.

Themes extend over the role of brutality and war in either imprisoning people or liberating them. I guess Frank Herbert didn’t see the passage of 800 centuries as a pathway to saving us from the 4-horsemen of the apocalypse. With that in mind, he’s stollen from religious texts as much as a Shakespearean landscape of ideas and the hero’s journey from Greek myths.

The enduring nature of grand sagas that show “good” overcoming “evil” have an immense appeal. All the twist and turns along the way and the troublesome megalomania that accompanies the coming of a liberator are as fresh ever.

DUNE long precedes Star Wars. The latter is cruder in pulling the emotional hearts strings and much more simplistic. The leadership of the Fremen people and mastering of “desert power” to defeat a devious Emperor doesn’t bring universal peace. In the span of the film, the planet Arrakis is freed form the cruel Harkonnen family. That is by no means the end of the story.

The intriguing role played by the Bene Gesserit women is a play over generations where influence is maintained regardless of who’s Emperor. This poses the question of the source of religion. Does it guide the Bene Gesserit (high priests), or do they guide it?

Back to the movie. I like the way it veers from the intimate relationships between individuals to the incredible sweep of vistas and strange technological imaginations. It deals with the environment and the nitty gritty drives and motivations of tyrants and powerful leaders. Is it inevitable that concentrated power produces a dark future. If the answer is “yes” we are in deep trouble with the digital world of now. We will not need to wait for thousands of years.

My recommendation is – see it. Choose the most comfortable seat in the cinema. Go on a rainy overcast day. Don’t go if your mind is cluttered up with trivia. By the way, the list of movies coming soon is dreadful. We are going into a nostalgic remake agony fest.

[1] https://www.dunemovie.net/

Safety

A considerable part of my working life has been in the analysis of occurrence data and trying to distiller the factors that cause or contribute to accidents and incidents. It’s rewarding work. An opportunity to influence that has value. I subscribe to the dictum that everything we do should contribute to continuous improvement in safety. Not zero risk but to keep risks low and under control, in so much as it’s possible.

Aviation only has the great success that it does because it’s a safe industry. For mass transport by air to be viable across the globe, the public must have confidence in it. They are willing to place whole families in the care of an airline to get them from London Gatwick to the Canary Islands for something that is not a physical need[1]. Regular leisure travel is a luxury and a privilege. We live in a fortunate age when overseas travel can be afforded by a large section of the population.

I watched the recent documentary on flight MH370. It’s sobering. It’s a story of the loss of a large aircraft that still seems unbelievable in this era. It’s the 10th anniversary of the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines flight MH 370 on 8 March 2014. The loss is a stark reminder that the oceans cover over 70% of the surface of the Earth. We know less about parts of the oceans than we do about the surface of Mars. The depths remain uncharted.

With a paucity of evidence theories have taken root. Official investigation reports are available. However, mystery remains particularly when it comes to answering the question – why? If as the documentary suggest, the willful actions of the pilot-in-command brought about the fatal outcome then there’s little to tell of his motivation. Highlighting the tragic Germanwings aviation accident doesn’t offer anything other than a context to possibilities. Evidence that the MH370 pilot-in-command was suicidal is scant. Although his known actions do not make much sense without invoking such a theory. Understanding what drives people to purposefully undertake unpredictable and irrational actions is an area of study that always needs attention.

Yesterday, Sunday, I was remined that threats to safety can come out of nowhere. Seemingly routine car journeys can suddenly take a turn in an unexpected direction. We become subject to the fates. I use the word “fate” but I’m not a great believer in the fates. Randomness plays a part but, in this case, yesterday afternoon, I was the subject to the foolish and negligent actions of another car driver.

On a wet “B” road that climbs and descends over chalk hills, there are triangular road signs that warn drivers that the road is a high risk road. What the signs are referring to is the wildlife. A deer may leap out of a roadside hedge at great speed and misjudge the road traffic. In fact, I did see an unfortunate small dead deer at the kerbside.

What happened to me had a purely human cause. Naturally, I would call it complete idiocy. Coming over the brow of a hill, and descending, suddenly there was 4 bright headlights ahead. On a narrow country road, with overgrown banks on either side that was a scary sight. Nowhere to go. In a faction of a second the overtaking car coming up the hill veered back into the right-hand lane. No more than a couple of yards in front of my car. Fortunately, there was no collision. What on earth was the motivation of that driver? Overtaking, at high speed, approaching the brow of a hill, on a wet county road, in poor light, sheer madness. A small red car, overtaking a larger car.

In safety work this points to the most difficult situations to understand. The irrational, or stupid or reckless, or carless human drives that are hard to design out of systems. How do we take effective corrective action when one person’s risk threshold is so very much higher than normal or acceptable? The problem with saying – take their licence away – is that this is always reactive. After a negative event. Maybe even a fatal one.

[1] https://www.simplypsychology.org/maslow.html

Transform

Watching the BBC’s Sort Your Life Out[1] is cathartic. Stacey Solomon and her team are bubbling with enthusiasm. They get in there, and in one big swoop change the lives of a family that has become trapped in their own clutter. Everyday surrounded by way too much stuff.

This is so relatable. I’m in denial. I am not a hoarder. The truth is that there’s no place on a TV programme for me but that doesn’t mean I don’t have one or two “challenges”. Even in that double negative there’s the shifting sand of denial. Just don’t look in the garage.

To transform our lives, we have just moved house. Now, over a month in the new place. That has left the job of clearing out our former house and tidying it up. One thing with clearing out the accumulation of ages is the need for a deadline. Solomon’s show has that built in. Our deadline is a floating one that can’t float for long.

This week, I got temporarily mesmerised by a pile of old newspapers. Yes, it’s down to me. For the strangest of reasons or no reason at all, I’d kept a pile of curious newspapers that went back to 2010. Events like General Elections, Budget days, disasters, the local MP’s misdemeans and the rise and fall of people in public life. A real mix of general interest.

Like Sort Your Life Out, politics in the UK is full of stories of notable names that have come and gone. One or two have been upcycled (Nick Clegg), others were recycled (Lord Cameron[2]), and some previously prominent names disappeared altogether. Acknowledging the obituaries too.

What struck me was not only the names that come and go but the rollercoaster that has been the last 14-years. Underlying that is a cycle that goes bust, boom, bust as that rollercoaster thunders along on rails that disappear into the mists.

Regarding government budgets, we have regularly been promised transformations. Chancellors who don’t promise more for less are rare. Those who deliver it are even rarer. For the most part, in aggregate, our wealth per capita is going in an unhealthy direction. I’d say government budgets are an expression of political priorities, but they are far less important than events.

What do we learn from the whirlpool of public life? One thing is that history is constantly being rewritten. In the longer term what’s said about Johnson, Farage, May, Brown, Blair, Major, Clegg, and Cameron is going to be rewritten time and time again.

Back to my comparison of Sort Your Life Out and General Elections. To quote a quote[3] that is not by Mark Twain but is commonly attributed to him: Politicians are like nappies (diapers), they should be changed regularly.

If we genuinely want transformation, we need to vote for it. In my mind, voting either Conservative or Labour amounts to more of the same.

[1] https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m00116n4

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Cameron

[3] https://quoteinvestigator.com/2018/10/17/diaper/

Spring

References to meteorological spring are all well and fine. I accept that those with the expert knowledge and data say that the 1st March[1] marked the transition into spring. For me that’s too early. Jumping the gun a bit.

The occurrence of astronomical spring makes more sense to me. That puts the transition on 20th March. So, a couple more weeks of tapering winter to go. I never like counting on spring before my birthday. I may have said this before, I’ve watched the Cheltenham Gold Cup[2] in a snow shower. That race is on the 15th March this year.

Nature is being the wake-up phases. Those buds that can be seen everywhere there hedges and bushes are a good indicator. Bulbs are well advanced this year. The snowdrops came and went with great speed.

This morning a frosty mist hung over the river. Slowly the sun’s rays burn-off this obscuring icy fog. The vail is lifted. The flood is receding after a couple of days of nothing more than light showers. Gradually the wetland grass is adjusting to a new phase of growth.

Riverbank trees are bare. The stretch up through the mist like a charcoal painting. Shades of grey gradually give way to colour as the dawn takes hold. A cloudless sky frames the outline with a pure morning blue. Backlight as I’m looking North.

Nothing but a troop of stubborn fat geese waddle around at the edge of the slivery water. The mirror like water is their playground. Preening and feeding the empire of Canadian geese numbers more than ten. Their peaceful contentment contrasts with the commuter traffic on the Oxford Road.

All the signs are of a sunny morning further hastening the approach of natures spring.

[1] https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/seasons/spring/when-does-spring-start

[2] https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/cheltenham/events-tickets/the-festival/gold-cup-day/

Friday evening

I listened. Well, it was unusual. On a Friday night, the country’s Prime Minister (PM) addresses the nation. Not much prior indication it was going to happen. What’s afoot, I thought. Could this be the moment a General Election is called? In the end it wasn’t an earth-shaking moment or likely to change the direction of the course of world events. The intention was good. There’s a strong need to step back. To condemn violent extremism in all its forms. Whether it’s ideological, from a political stance or religious in motivation.

Yes, people have a right to be passionate in pursuit of their beliefs. The limit comes in a liberal democracy when action steps over into aggression, intimidation, hate and violence.

Yes, it’s a sad day when a Westminster byelection results in the election of a maverick who as a disturbing track record of associating himself with alarming people and beliefs.

We (UK) are sure not in a good place, now. That does call for political leadership to step-up and face down those who would corrupt, divide, and wreak havoc. To do that across the board whether it be from the extreme left or extreme right. Wreckers are not new. They pop-up through history. Often using a false narrative to antagonise and stir-up insurrection. The results are always to the detriment of most people and to the advantage of a very few.

Is the PM facing down the those who’d happily wreck our liberal democracy? Friday evening was one attempt.

I agree with some commentators. If a speech is to be made outside the front door of Number 10, such an iconic setting, then there ought to be something of great substance in that speech. Afterall this is the place where PMs come and go, elections are called, and major crises are addressed. In this case there wasn’t much of great substance and vague messages were scattered throughout the PM’s rambling speech.

One problem is the misguided mixing of multiple different concerns in a mishmash. For example, protest is not de-facto bad. Illegal actions during a protest must be addressed much as illegal action any other time. If extra resources are needed to address those illegal actions surely it is for the government of the day to provision them appropriate to the task.

Perception matters. Condemning those who are clearly in opposition to the PMs political stance but turning a blind eye to those in the PMs camp who are just as bad, just smells bad.

Let’s be positive. It’s a good start. Leaders should come out an defend and preserve the liberty we all enjoy. They should craft langauage that unites. They should engage in robust debate on the side of truth. I wonder where we go from here. Will electioneering polticans stop the slurs and cheep remarks – unlikely.

POST 1: The PMs words on extremists and democracy have slipped off the on-line headlines rather quickly. Maybe his aim was for the weekend media to pick-up the debate in a thoughtful manner. Good luck with that one.

POST 2: Now, the PM is facing both ways. Paul Scully’s[1] utterances follow those of former Conservative Lee Anderson. When the majority of his party’s members think Islam is “A Threat To British Way Of Life[2]” and they would prefer a different leader from him no wonder the PM is calling for unity.

[1] https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/02/26/paul-scully-no-go-areas-birmingham-london-islamophobia/

[2] https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/majority-of-tory-members-believe-islam-is-a-threat-to-british-way-of-life_uk_65df4fd4e4b0e4346d54a740

March

The North wind doth blow and we shall have snow[1]. Well, today on the first day of March and it’s more of a gusty North Westerly wind and heavy rain. The snow maybe falling on high ground in the North of England but here in the South the temperature remains mild. Although, the line on the thermometer is slowly descending.

The flood in the small field out back waxes and wanes but is far from drying up. In fact, the extent of the water is greater now than it has been in a while. A lone Swan rests close to the riverbank. Not fussed by the driving rain. That makes me curious, where is its mate? On previous occasions, we have seen a pair of Swans cruising up and down the river Lambourn.

March comes in like a Lion[2]. That’s as true as it ever was of our weather, but will the next part of the saying happen as the month rolls on? Will March leave like a lamb? Winter may still have a sting in its tale. A misty wet March is in prospect.

March is always a month of transition. It certainly is for me. Having a birthday in the middle of the month is quite a good time to clock up another year. I never count winter as being behind us until I’ve put a candle on a cake. There’s an idea for a folksy modern saying.

There one more snowy white bird prancing around at the waters edge this morning. He or she is rather elegant small bird. It’s interesting to note that this bird was first recorded as breeding in Berkshire in 2007. Our visiting Egret[3] is dipping into the grass surveying the flood water with confidence.

Fishing is not just the exclusive rights of the Egret. There’s a slim tall Heron[1] who looks very regal. My guess is that the flood water has created small pools within which some small fish have become trapped. That’s a nice easy meal for a patient Heron. With spindly legs standing in the wet grassland any small fish would not see their fate coming.

As the sun has come up both Swan and Egret have moved on. The flood has been left to the ducks and geese. I don’t mention the Crows, Magpies and Pigeons. Although I just have. The wildlife seen from my window doesn’t mind gusty, wet, and windy anything like as much as I do.

[1] https://www.rspb.org.uk/birds-and-wildlife/grey-heron

[1] https://songsofchildhood.wordpress.com/2011/10/31/the-north-wind-doth-blow/

[2] https://www.theparisreview.org/blog/2015/03/02/folk-wisdom/

[3] https://www.wildlifetrusts.org/wildlife-explorer/birds/herons-egrets-spoonbill-and-crane/little-egret

Wild

Looked out this morning and there was a couple of geese to add to my list of sightings. The flooded field out the back attracts numerous birds and wildlife. Wet grassland is just right for them to be happy. Egyptian geese[1]. A pair was plodding around. Given their different colouration, I assume they were male and female. One was slightly larger than the other. These two steered well clear of the gaggle of grazing Canadian geese. As geese go these are about twice the size of the Egyptians.

Now there are distinct advantages in having webbed feet. Soggy ground and shallow waters are just right for the duck and goose community. As the light rain returns a couple of pairs of Mallards[2] takeover the riverbank. Swimming around each other and dipping and diving as they go. There’s an abundance of food so I expect to see many more waterfowl in coming days.

It rained overnight so there’s no signs that the flood water as receded this morning. There are ripples on the surface of the flood water as the wind is quite strong and gusty. That has a dying effect. So, the waters may easily follow natures calendar and return to the riverbed in the coming weeks. The trees are still winter bare. Up close they look different with buds already to go. March will be a month of change. The colours will start to change.

I say these things, but I remember standing in the snow on my March birthday. Winter’s being mild this year. It can still have a sting in its tale if it wants to upset us all. A sudden plunge into ice can still reset the calendar. Snowdrops have almost been and gone. Daffodils are showing at their best. The local hedgerows are full of Blackthorn blooms. That’s early.  

I don’t think I’m confusing the Blackthorn[3] and Hawthorn. The Hawthorn has often been considered a symbol of rebirth. That’s associated with the month of May and Springtime. One comes out before the other and seeing so many white flowers in late-February they must be Blackthorn. Even so, flowering now is a marked indicator that the seasons are changing. Climate change?

The blossom of the two hedgerow thorns is similar in shape and size. When they get buffeted by the wind the ground can get covered by a carpet of bright white petals. The distinction is that the Blackthorn has dark round black berries in the autumn. In fact, I’d refer to the whole thorn bush by the name of the berries, namely Sloes. Birds like them but I’d not recommend tasting them given their sharp bitter nature. The Sloe is better known for what it can become. That’s as English as the hedgerows. Sloe Gin[1] has been round for hundreds of years. It’s well worth a go.

[1] https://www.plymouthgin.com/en/product/plymouth-sloe-gin/

[1] https://www.rspb.org.uk/birds-and-wildlife/egyptian-goose

[2] https://www.rspb.org.uk/birds-and-wildlife/mallard

[3] https://www.woodlandtrust.org.uk/trees-woods-and-wildlife/british-trees/a-z-of-british-trees/blackthorn/